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July 18, 2013
RICK PORTER – DIRECTORNATURAL GAS REGULATORY ADVISORY SERVICES
Issues For An Expanding Energy Market Energy Bar Association – Houston ChapterJuly Luncheon
CAPITA
L, CONVE
RGEN
CE, C
APAC
ITY
– WHILE THE INDUSTRY IS OPTIMISTIC, CHALLENGES EXIST
2
4.57
4.22
4.21
4.21
4.13
4.08
4.01
3.94
3.80
3.74
Safety
Economic growth
Gas supply reliability
Rate and regulatory certainty
Capital access and cost
Aging infrastructure
Gas price stability
Electric‐gas interdependency
Environmental activism
Aging work force
On a scale of 1 to 5, rate the most important long‐term issues to the gas industry.
No Impact
SignificantImpact
Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Convergence, Capital, Capacity
Capital
Source: 2012 Black & Veatch Strategic Directions in the US Natural Gas Industry
Thesemarketissuesrequireregulatorystrategies
3
3.44
3.43
3.23
3.22
3.10
3.10
Ability to recover operating costs and provide satisfactory earnings
Costs associated with maintaining satisfactory regulatory compliance
Level of investment made by your company in the natural gas industry
Predictability of natural gas prices
Level of natural gas prices to consumers
Stability of service pricing
– CAPITAL: HOW WILL UNCERTAINTY AFFECT EXPANSION AND MAINTENANCE INVESTMENTS
B&V Survey Question: To what extent do you believe regulatory uncertainty (at either the federal or state level) has an impact on the following issues?
No Impact
SignificantImpact
CAPIT
AL
4
CAPIT
AL– MAJORITY OF PIPELINE ARE EARNING LESS THAN
ALLOWED RETURNS ON EQUITY
‐40% ‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
StingrayHIOS
PanhandleSea Robin
REXEl Paso Pipeline
ANRTennesseeTrunkline
Texas EasternTransco
Nothern NaturalColumbia Gas
VikingNorthern BorderColumbia Gulf
Return on Equity
Interstate Pipeline ‐ 2012 Return on Equity (Based on FERC Form 2 Data)
AverageEquityReturn:7.1%MedianEquityReturn:9.5%
Estimated FERC Allowed ROE
5
– CAPITAL: WILL REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY INHIBIT MIDSTREAM INVESTMENTS?
CAPIT
AL
Source: INGAA Foundation Study
• US and Canada capital spendincludes:
• Over 35,000 miles of transmission mainline
• 414,000 miles of gathering
• 304,000 miles of laterals to power plants
• 589 Bcf of Working Gas Capacity
• 32.5 Bcf/d of Processing Capacity
• Projected NGL and Oil expenditures expected to total $46 Billion over the same period
Bakken
Utica
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Barnett‐Woodford Barnett Haynesville
Granite Wash
Woodford
Fayetteville
Cummulative US Capital Spend (2011‐2035)
Billions (2012$)
Gas Transmission Mainline $103.7Laterals $31.0Gathering Line $43.4Gas Pipeline Compression $9.5Gas Storage Fields $5.0Gas Processing Capacity $23.0
Total Gas Capital Requirement $215.6
GROWING GAS FIRED GENERATION REQUIRES ENHANCED PIPELINE CAPACITY AND SERVICES
6Source: Black & Veatch Energy Market Perspective
CONVERGENCE
The market share of natural gas is expected to increase ~25%
Total GWh: 4,223,743 Total GWh: 5,637,829
Coal 1,109,662 19.6%
Natural Gas 2,914,779 51.6%
Nuclear 716,514 12.7%
Hydro 285,262 5.0%
Renewable 552,339 9.8%
IGCC Coal 59,273 1.0% Other 11,372
0.2%
2037
Coal 1,578,941 37.3%
Natural Gas 1,061,906 25.1%
Nuclear 988,128 23.3%
Hydro 339,534 8.0%
Renewable 248,292 5.9%
IGCC Coal 6,942 0.2% Other 12,254
0.3%
2013
– B&V’S 2013 ELECTRIC SURVEY REVEALS DEMAND FOR GAS BUT UNCERTAINTY AROUND PIPELINE ADEQUACY AND RELIABILITY
7
CONVERGENCE
What level of gas demand for power generation growth do you anticipate for your utility by 2020?
How confident are you in the adequacy of pipeline capacity in your utility’s regional grid?
Source: Black & Veatch 2013 Electric Utility Survey
No Increase(8%)
Do not use natural gas
(18%)
I don’t know(12%)
<25% Increase(28%)
>25% Increase(34%)
Neither Confident nor Unconfident
(21%)Very
Unconfident(6%)
Unconfident(13%)
Confident(26%)
Very Confident(6%)
I don’t know/ NA
(28%)
Moreoptionssupportsgas/electricconvergence.
• Requirement 2 of Order 1000 creates opportunities for gas pipelines
• Implementation plans are not complete;
• RTOs should ask “What is the appropriate placement and relationship of new electric and gas facilities that will promote the most cost efficient delivery of energy to consumers and industry?”
– CONVERGENCE: INCREASED CHOICES FOR OPTIMIZING REGIONAL ENERGY GRIDS
8
Major PipelinesElectric TransmissionNortheast U.S.
CONVERGENCE
– COMMUNICATION AND SCHEDULING COORDINATION IS VALUABLE, HOWEVER…
Source:ISONewEnglandNUCPUCSymposium
9
CONVERGENCE
Beginwithanother'stoendwithyourown.‐BaltasarGracián
• Guidelines for new service design:• Use existing FERC designs as a point of departure;• Recognize the operational characteristics of the pipeline;• Understand the cost implications for the pipeline;• Redefine the value of the capacity – Don’t let basis or spreads establish price
• Don’t try to be all things to all shippers, group services according to their needs;
• Test the design when possible and let it evolve.
• An Evolving Flexible Rate Design• Gulfstream – Docket No.CP00‐6;• ANR Pipeline – Docket No.RP00‐332;• Kinetica Energy Express – Docket No.CP12‐49
– …SO IS GAS PIPELINE FLEXIBILITY.
10
CONVERGENCE
2012‐2022 Flows Increase2012‐2022 Flows Decrease2012‐2022 Flows StableNatural Gas Pipelines
11
– SHIFTING SUPPLY BASINS REDEFINE ALL MARKETS
Source: Black & Veatch Energy Market Perspective Analysis
CAPACIT
Y
Emerging Shale2012 2022
Marcellus Shale 5.4 16.8Haynesville Shale 7.5 10.4Eagle Ford Shale 3.8 6.0Barnett Shale 4.9 4.5Utica Shale 0.4 3.7
Projected Production (Bcf/d)
– DRAMATIC CAPACITY REALIGNMENTS CALL FOR RETHINKING MARKETS AND SERVICES
12
CAPACIT
Y
WillGulfCoastLNGExportsReviveLong‐Haulpipelinecapacity?
Sabine Pass
CameronGolden Pass Lake Charles
Bakken
UticaMarcellus
Eagle Ford
Barnett‐Woodford
Barnett Haynesville
Granite Wash Woodford
Fayetteville
Lake Charles
CameronGolden Pass
Sabine Pass
– MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, DON’T LET IT MANAGE YOU
13Ifthehighestaimofacaptainweretopreservehisship,hewouldkeepitinportforever.‐ ThomasAquinas