Heathrow Airport Ltd. - Proposals for Providing Additional Airport Capacity in the Longer Term

8/22/2019 Heathrow Airport Ltd. - Proposals for Providing Additional Airport Capacity in the Longer Term

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Airports Commission:Long-term hub capacity options

Heathrow Airport Limited response

17th July 2013


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Long-term hub capacity options - Heathrow Airport Limited response 17th July 2013 | Page 2

Contents

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3

2. The case or growth at Heathrow ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4

3. Three runways are enough to maintain the UKs global hub status or the oreseeable uture ...... 5

4. The economic benets o a third runway .................................................................................................................................................. 7

5. Sustainable Heathrow ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

6. More fights, less noise ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 10

7. The UKs integrated transport hub ................................................................................................................................................................. 12

8. Improving air quality around Heathrow ................................................................................................................................................... 15

9. Managing other eects on people and communities ............................................................................................................... 17

10. Third runway: design principles ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19

11. Third runway: proposed options ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21

12. Third runway: environmental and local community assessment ................................................................................... 26

13. Third runway: costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32

14. Comparing our third runway options ......................................................................................................................................................... 33

15. Deliverability and risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34

16. Funding model .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35

17. Heathrow can have a our-runway uture i required ................................................................................................................ 36

18. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38

19. Reerences................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

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This document is Heathrows response to the Airports Commissions call for long-term hub

capacity options. Our response follows a structure similar to the Commissions own paper.


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1. Introduction1.1. Capacity is constrained at the UKs only global hub, Heathrow, which has

been virtually ull or a decade. Other international hub airports, such asFrankurt, Paris and Amsterdam, have spare capacity and have been ableto provide more services to an increasing range o growth markets. The UKthereore urgently needs additional capacity at its hub airport to compete.

1.2. The Governments vision is or Britain to win the global race or jobs andeconomic growth. To do so we must be better connected to uture growthmarkets Asia, South America, North America than our Europeancompetitors. Heathrow is one o the worlds best connected hubs and is wellplaced to help Britain win the global race. Any alternative, including doingnothing or a split hub, will weaken Britains competitiveness.

1.3. We have thought long and hard about the uture o Heathrow. In recentmonths we have assessed many dierent options or new hub capacity,including options not based at Heathrow. In developing solutions or theuture, we have listened, and we have learnt rom the past. Today we arerejecting the previous proposal and we are putting orward new proposalswhich balance the need or growth with the impact on local communities.

Some o our new options agree with the ideas o Tim Leunig whose PolicyExchange report Bigger and Quieter argued that moving Heathrowsrunways to the west could reduce noise over London since aircrat will behigher over any given place.

1.4. We are oering new thinking and new solutions:

that will connect the UK to the growth it needs more quickly thanany other option

that can meet the UKs long-term needs, not just the short-term

that will continue to reduce the total number o people aectedby noise rom Heathrow

that deliver periods o respite rom noise or every community

under a fight path that can be delivered within the UKs climate change and

air pollution limits.

1.5. We are putting orward three options or adding runway capacity romthe many we have assessed. The options are in the three geographicallocations at Heathrow where a third runway is easible: to the north, tothe north-west, and to the south-west. We have not submitted an option

to the south or east as the scale o impact on residential property in theseareas would not be sustainable.

1.6. While we recognise that determining the right balance between theeconomic and environmental impacts o additional fights is ultimatelya decision or Government, we believe the westerly options oer clearadvantages. They result in ewer residential properties being demolishedand because these options are located urther west than Heathrows existingrunways, aircrat would be higher over London, reducing the number opeople exposed to aircrat noise.

1.7. We have investigated a range o other options which were not selected orinclusion in this document, we would be happy to supply details o theseat the Commissions request. There is much additional detailed analysis thatsupports the options which we are submitting which, again, we will sharewith the Commission i requested to do so.

1.8. This document is intended to be read in the context o the ollowingHeathrow publications:

One Hub or None

Best Placed or Britain

A Quieter Heathrow.

It should also be considered in conjunction with our previous submissions tothe Commission in response to its discussion documents.

1.9. We believe that a third runway delivers sucient capacity to maintain theUKs global hub status or the oreseeable uture, but we are also includingproposals that demonstrate how every three runway option could developinto our runways should it be required. We have the ability to add extracapacity as the need arises, which makes Heathrow a lower risk optionthan building a new our-runway hub rom scratch based on uncertainuture demand.

1.10. At this stage our proposals are in outline orm only and urther workwould need to be undertaken, including with local authorities and the localcommunity, to develop our plans i they are short-listed by the Commission.


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2. The case or growth at Heathrow

As the UKs only hub airport, Heathrow oers the astest, most cost eective andmost practical route or the UK to compete eectively in the global race to provideconnections to emerging markets and to ensure its uture prosperity.

2.1. Britain needs a world-class hub airport t or the uture: a national gateway to helpour country compete and win in the global race or jobs and growth. UK businessestrade 20 times more with emerging markets that have daily fights than those withless requent or no direct service. But Heathrow is slipping out o the Premier League

o Europes international hub airports.1 This is bad or Britains uture as a worldeconomic power.

2.2. Heathrow is currently one o the ew Premier League hubs in the world. It hasthe scale, the geographic location, the local market and the capability to be thewinner in a tight race to be Europes leading hub and support the UKs economiccompetitiveness.

2.3. Like much UK inrastructure, Heathrow historically suered rom out-dated acilitiesand decades o underinvestment. Since 2003, Heathrow has invested 11 billionin the airport one o the UKs largest private sector investments. That money hasallowed us to start completely rebuilding Heathrow, providing world-class passengeracilities such as Terminal 5 and the new Terminal 2, as well as providing newbaggage systems and a more ecient aireld that reduces delays and emissions. Thenew layout is designed to be capable o expanding to accommodate uture growth.

2.4. Operational perormance has improved as a result and passengers say they noticethe dierence. The proportion o passengers rating their journey as very good orexcellent has increased to 77% today rom 48% in 2007. For two years running,passengers have rated Terminal 5 as the best airport terminal in the world andHeathrow was voted best large airport in Europe in 2013. Heathrow is already agateway to the world o which the UK can be proud. But it is ull.

2.5. In this document, we aim to set out a resh and distinctive approach to addingcapacity at Heathrow. We are oering a new approach to an old problem. We aremaking ten commitments that set out what Britain can expect rom a third runwayat Heathrow and which show the dierence between our proposal today and theproposals o the past.

2.6. Heathrow provides the eective, practical and deliverable route or expanding the

UKs hub airport capacity. As such, we recognise the obligation on us to plan anyexpansion sensitively, to develop strategies to limit impacts and to put in place acomprehensive approach to mitigation.

2.7. Quieter planes, quieter operating procedures, noise mitigation, and operatingrestrictions will continue to reduce the impact o aircrat noise at Heathrow even witha third runway. Two o our options site runways urther to the west than previousproposals which means aircrat will be fying higher over London. Even with a thirdrunway, in 2030 there will be around 10-20% ewer people in total within

1 See analysis included in Heathrows submission to the Airports Commission on Airport Operational Models

Figure 1: I government supports a third runway at Heathrow, we will:

Our commitments Our approach

Connect Britain to economic growthby enabling airlines to add new fights to ast-growingmarkets

Connect UK nations and regions toglobal markets

by working with airlines and government to deliver

better air and rail links between UK regions andHeathrow

Protect 114,000 existing local jobs andcreate tens o thousands o new jobsnationwide

by developing our local employment, apprenticeshipsand skills programmes and supporting a supply chainthroughout the UK

Build more quickly and at lower cost totaxpayers than building a new airport

by building on the strength the UK already has atHeathrow

Reduce aircrat noiseby encouraging the worlds quietest aircrat to useHeathrow and routing aircrat higher over London sothat ewer people are aected by noise than today

Lessen noise impacts or people underight-paths

by delivering periods o noise respite with no aircrat

overhead and providing noise insulation or people inhigh-noise areas

Treat those most aected by a thirdrunway airly

by ensuring compensation greater than market value isoered to anyone whose home needs to be purchased

Keep CO2

emissions within UK climatechange targets and play our part inmeeting local air quality limits

by incentivising cleaner aircrat, supporting globalcarbon trading and increasing public transport use

Increase the proportion o passengersusing public transport to access Heathrowto more than 50%

by supporting new rail, bus and coach schemes toimprove public transport to Heathrow

Reduce delays and disruption by urther improving Heathrows resilience to severeweather and unoreseen events


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Heathrows noise ootprint than today. Improving on the previous proposal or a thirdrunway, all o our options will use runway alternation in order to provide periods orespite rom noise with no aircrat overhead. We believe residents should receive reeinsulation in high noise areas or where there is a signicant increase in noise, andthat there should be support or residents in the highest noise areas to move houseshould they wish.

2.8. A third runway at Heathrow is consistent with meeting the UKs legally bindingclimate change targets. New aircrat and engine technology, operational ecienciesand sustainable biouels will allow the UK to more than double air trac by 2050

without increasing emissions. We can add capacity at Heathrow without exceedingair pollution limits. Cleaner vehicles, an increased proportion o passengers travellingby public transport and new aircrat technology will mean that levels o nitrogendioxide would be within EU limits. Concentrations o ne particles are already withinEU limits.

2.9. We will ensure that compensation greater than market value is oered to anyonewhose home needs to be purchased. I Government policy supports a third runwaythen a property market support bond scheme will also be put in place to guaranteethe value o property until a new runway is constructed and address propertyblight resulting rom exposure to new aircrat noise. We will also develop newnoise mitigation schemes i a third runway is supported by Government. We will beproactively engaging with local communities on our proposals.

2.10. Passengers will benet rom a third runway by having a greater choice odestinations, airlines, fights rom UK regions, onward transport and lower aresthan at a new hub airport. Our route modelling suggests that the extra take-oand landing slots delivered by a third runway would provide 40 new long-hauldestinations by 2030, providing Heathrow with 130 total long-haul destinations.Relieving the capacity constraint will also have the benet o reducing the upwardspressure on airares that increasing levels o un-served demand apply at Heathrow.Two smaller, second division, London hubs on the other hand would inevitably resultin ewer directly accessibly long-haul destinations, a less attractive choice o long-haulfight timings, less competition and higher average long-haul ticket prices.

2.11. By the time a third runway opens public transport inrastructure including Crossrail,the Piccadilly Line upgrade, Western Rail Access, High Speed 2 and Southern RailAccess could link Heathrow to the whole o the UK and allow more passengers toaccess Heathrow on public transport than ever beore. 15 million more passengerscould use public transport to access Heathrow by 2030 which would increaseHeathrows public transport mode share rom 40% to more than 50%, even withmore passengers, thereby allowing us to be able to deliver more fights withoutincreasing the trac on the road due to the airport.

2.12. A third runway at Heathrow would deliver greater economic benets to the UKthan any other currently proposed transport inrastructure project. It will create jobs,acilitate trade, boost spending in the wider economy and improve public nances.We estimate that benets o 100 billion present value (PV) would accrue to the UKrom expanding Heathrow, the majority o which will be or the wider economy.

2.13. A third runway at Heathrow is the astest, most cost eective and most practicalroute to meeting the UKs international connectivity needs. A third runway can bedelivered at less cost to the taxpayer than building a new hub airport. The optionsthat we are putting orward could be delivered rom 5 - 10 years ater receipt oplanning permission and or 14-18 billion. This compares avourably with a newThames Estuary airport which we do not believe could be operational beore 2034and which its promoters admit could cost 70-80 billion, o which at least 25 billionwould need to be unded by the taxpayer. Adding capacity at Heathrow avoids thetransition costs and risk o moving to a new airport.

2.14. A third runway is not just a short-term x - all o the options we are putting orwardor three runways have been designed so that they are capable o evolving to ourrunways i ever required to do so. We believe that a third runway provides sucientcapacity until at least 2040 and demand beyond this point is very dicult to predictnow. One o the advantages o the Heathrow option is that additional capacity couldbe added gradually as demand requires whereas a new hub airport would requiremost investment upront based on uncertain uture demand.

2.15. We believe there is a compelling case or growth at Heathrow. Britain aces achoice. We have one o the worlds most successul hub airports in Heathrow. Wecan decide to build on this strength. Or we can start again rom scratch. Buildingrom our existing strength can connect the UK to growth more quickly and at lowercost. Starting again rom scratch will cost the taxpayer more, take longer and willnot deliver an airport thats in the right location to help the UK win the global race.

Growth wont wait. With every passing year, Britain is cutting itsel o rom tradeand jobs. Its time or a third runway at Heathrow.

3. Three runways are enough to maintain the UKsglobal hub status or the oreseeable uture

By 2030, Heathrow could be operating to 40 more long-haul destinations, directlyconnecting the UK to more o the worlds astest growing markets.

3.1. There are only six hub airports worldwide that have regular, direct connections tomore than 50 long-haul destinations. No country has more than one major long-haulhub. In Heathrow, London has one o these Premier League intercontinental hubs.All our o Heathrows competitor European hub airports - Paris, Frankurt, Madrid

and Amsterdam - either already have or are committed to developing plans orenough runway capacity to serve an average o around 700,000 fights per yeareach, nearly 50% more than the presently constrained Heathrow. A third runwayat Heathrow would provide sucient capacity or the oreseeable uture, or thereasons explained below.

3.2. First, Heathrow orecasts constrained trac growth o ~0.5-1% p.a. at the UKs hub,through until 2025, with growth slowing as the hub capacity constraint tightensbetween now and then. This low level o growth refects the reality that Heathrow isalready operating at over 98% o its 480,000 Air Transport Movements (ATM) cap.


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The growth is driven by incremental increases in the average aircrat size operatingat Heathrow. Any more intensive use o two runways at Heathrow should only beconsidered as part o a transitional plan towards a third runway. Any transitional planshould recognise the importance o respite to local residents.

3.3. Second, by the time a third runway is operational in 2025 (which is already thequickest route to meeting UKs international connectivity needs), a signicantproportion o unconstrained hub demand, that develops over the interveningperiod, may well have been lost, either or good, or or the long term. Overseasgovernments, airlines and hub airports, such as Dubai and Istanbul, are already

making major investments that exploit the UKs hub capacity constraint.

3.4. Third, we have assumed as our central case a growth in passenger numbers o a5% p.a., rom 2025 to 2030, once a third runway becomes operational in 2025.Thereater we assume a central case 2.4% p.a. growth in passengers. The veyear period o 5% p.a. growth is based on Heathrows research o other previouslyconstrained international airports. This research shows a growth rate o 2.5%above the underlying market level or the rst 5 years, ollowing the introductiono additional capacity, returning to market level thereater. This higher initial growthrate ollowed by a return to the underlying growth rate is consistent with a phasedapproach to introducing additional capacity at Heathrow e.g. phased development oterminal inrastructure. It is also consistent with delivering more fights over time withless noise. The period o 5% growth p.a. represents some initial recapture o demandthat Heathrow has lost over the period it has been capacity constrained. The 2.4%

underlying growth rate is based on Heathrows unconstrained econometric longterm orecast and is broadly consistent with the long term unconstrained growthrate orecast by DT. Heathrow regards any longer term orecasts to 2050 to be toouncertain to be a reliable planning tool at this stage. The uncertainty over long rundemand makes adding a third runway at Heathrow an attractive option as a ourthrunway could be added in the longer term i it was ever required.

3.5. Fourth, we estimate that in 2030 a three-runway Heathrow will be handlingapproximately 570,000 ATMs and 100 million passengers. This level o operationleaves plenty o spare runway capacity, providing additional resilience or theoperation on the 10-15 red days per year when adverse conditions can leadto signicant operational disruption e.g. as a result o severe weather. During the2030s and beyond, we envisage that ATMs and passenger numbers would continueto grow towards ull capacity. High levels o resilience would be sustained by

improvements in operating capability and technology, developed over the interveningtwenty to thirty years. Several important improvements to Heathrows operatingcapability are already in plan (see Heathrows response to the Airports Commissionsdiscussion paper on Short and medium term measures). Sustained high levels oresilience in this latter period may also be supported by greater operational reedomson the 10-15 red days o the year. These reedoms would enable the airportcommunity to use the runways more fexibly in order to deal with these adverseconditions. The reedoms would not apply on the 350 other days o the year omore normal operations.

3.6. Fith, the [benets/capacity/capability] oered by a third runway will be substantial.By 2030, there is expected to be signicant growth in the number o long-hauldestinations served by the worlds top international airports. A third runway atHeathrow will increase the range o direct and requent long-haul destinationsavailable to passengers. Capacity can be delivered more quickly at Heathrow thanbuilding a new hub airport and Heathrows existing network strengths mean newroutes are more likely to be delivered at Heathrow than at other airports.

3.7. We estimate that a third runway would enable Heathrow to regularly serve 130long-haul destinations - 40 more than today - including Manila, Kathmandu, Kochi,

Jakarta, Bogota, Harare, Santiago, Lima, Mombasa, Osaka, Thiruvananthapuram(India), Ho Chi Minh City, Peshawar, Fukuoka, Penang, Chengdu, Fuzhou, Astana,Hanoi, Caracas and Porto Alegre. This level o global connectivity would sustain theUKs global hub status.

3.8. Heathrow would also have the capacity to connect to a number o routes withinthe British Isles currently served by competing hub airports in Europe, or example:Guernsey, Jersey, Inverness, Isle o Man and Humberside. Connecting ten UKregional airports, with an average o three services each per day, and connecting 40more long-haul destinations with a daily service requires 50k ATMs (Air TransportMovements) per annum. This represents about 20% o the ull potential additionalATMs o a third runway. The remaining 80% o additional capacity would be usedover time to improve connectivity via increased requencies on existing long-haulroutes and across the short-haul network.

3.9. Sixth, or planning purposes we consider 740,000 Air Trac Movements (ATMs) p.a.a reasonable estimate o the capacity o a three-runway Heathrow over the longerterm. With the realisation o the currently envisaged improvements in proceduresand technology over the longer run, a three-runway Heathrow operating at this levelwould be more resilient than today.

3.10. The assumed uture peak runway rates are lower than today (see section 10.10),however, we also anticipate that the ollowing actors will add additional resilienceas they become available:

with three runways in operation, one o the runways will need to handle botharriving and departing aircrat whilst the other two would be dedicated, onehandling arrivals and one handling departures. This combination enables moreecient use o the runways than todays two runway operation where one

runway is dedicated to arrivals and the other to departures. The innate eciencyo one o the three runways always being operated in alternating arrivals anddepartures mode delivers a peak o 48 movements per hour versus 38 or 42movements on the segregated runways. This method o operation is alwaysrequired on one o the runways to balance the number o departures and arrivalsin a three-runway airport. It should be noted that it will not have the detrimentaleect on respite that would be associated with operating in mixed mode in atwo runway airport, because o the ability to continuously rotate which runway isbeing used in this way


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the virtue o having two arrivals streams means that, as a broad operatingprinciple, aircrat o a similar size can generally be directed to land on thesame runway, thereby reducing wake vortex eects and the average spacingbetween planes

the airspace change required to enable hub expansion could enhance departurerouting eciency by enabling earlier divergence o planes departing on the sameStandard Instrument Departure (SID) and hence reduced departures separations

such initiatives as the Single European Sky ATM Research programme (SESAR)are due to deliver technological benets in both the airborne and ground control

environments including: better fow management through integration o automated arrival, surace

movement and departure management (so called Arrivals/Surace/DeparturesManagement integration)

more consistent separations between aircrat using Time Based Spacing better fow rates (particularly during low visibility conditions) using both

Perormance Based Navigation and Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches over the longer term Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wake vortex

detection

the capacity benets delivered by some o the above initiatives will be somewhatoset by the increase in average size o the aircrat in the feet operating atHeathrow e.g. more A380 aircrat. These larger aircrat types require widerseparations.

3.11. NATS have endorsed these planning assumptions as a reasonable basis orour analysis o the inrastructure requirements and impact assessments o athree-runway airport.

3.12. This assessment o the ultimate capacity o three runways in the long term andthe passenger/ATM growth that is likely to arise and which could be physicallyaccommodated in the shorter term, have ormed the basis or the impact modellingwhich we have undertaken. We have produced two data points:

2030 with 570,000 ATMs carrying 100 million passengers per annum (mppa)

2040 with 740,000 ATMs carrying 130 million passengers per annum.

3.13. These gures are broadly in line with the Department or Transports ownunconstrained orecast numbers or growth at Heathrow o 109mppa in 2030 and135mppa in 2040. We have assessed the environmental impacts o a three-runway

airport operating at ull capacity in 2040. Based on the continued development anddeployment o new technology, we calculate that the reductions in the number opeople aected by noise in 2030 can be maintained to 2040, and that withon-going reductions in emissions rom other local sources, air quality limits will notbe compromised.

3.14. In order to assess what inrastructure will be required to handle this growingnumber o fights and passengers at Heathrow, a set o fight schedules have beendeveloped. We have used the estimated passenger throughput numbers to developa representative set o busy day schedules. This is principally done using aneconometric model to orecast long term passenger demand by region based on

uture changes in income (GDP and consumer expenditure) and changes in ares(driven by oil price, taxes, charges and eciency gains). We have applied marketgrowth rates rom the econometric model to the 2011 passenger numbers toproduce a 2030 fight level passenger orecast (consistent with constrained andunconstrained periods o growth laid out above). Aircrat type changes are thenapplied on the basis o feet plans supplied by carriers or known aircrat orders. Flightlevel passenger orecasts are calculated by applying 95th percentile load actors onhourly, market and arrival/departure basis. Our schedules assume a continuation oHeathrow long run transer trac levels at an average o 35% across the airport.

3.15. In conclusion, we believe that a third runway delivers sucient capacity to maintainthe UKs global hub status or the oreseeable uture, but we are also includingproposals that demonstrate how every three runway option could develop into ourrunways should it be required. We have the ability to add extra capacity as the needarises, which makes Heathrow a lower risk option than building a new our-runwayhub rom scratch based on uncertain uture demand.

4. The economic benefts o a third runway

The additional hub capacity rom a third runway at Heathrow is estimated todeliver benefts o 100bn present value (PV), the majority o which accrues tothe wider UK economy, through improved connectivity and tens o thousands oadditional jobs.

4.1. A third runway at Heathrow would deliver greater economic benets to the UK thanany other option or new runway capacity. It will create jobs, acilitate trade, boostspending in the wider economy and improve public nances. We estimate thatbenets o 100 billion PV would accrue to the UK rom expanding Heathrow.

4.2. By delivering a third runway at Heathrow the current trade and investmentadvantages which the UK enjoys and Londons status as a world city will be preservedand enhanced. The value to the UK o a third runway is driven by stimulatinginternational trade, oreign direct investment and the local economy. Additional valueis created by passengers taking extra and more direct journeys. Supply chains andthe UK government also benet rom extra revenues. Additional hub capacity can bedelivered by 2025, well ahead o any other proposal, delivering much greater, earlierbenet to the UK.

4.3. Heathrow is the best location or the UKs hub. The current centre o UK economic

gravity is to the west o London where highly productive clusters in industries like ITand pharmaceuticals have grown around Heathrow over the last 50 years. 202 o theUKs top 300 company HQs are within a 25-mile radius o Heathrow. Foreign ownerso rms with HQs in the Thames Valley also employ up to 75,000 workers elsewherein the UK.2 All o this can only be enhanced by additional capacity and connectivityat Heathrow.

4.4. Expanding Heathrow would protect the existing 114,000 local jobs that dependon the airport and create 70,000 to 150,000 new local jobs. By contrast, closing ordownsizing Heathrow would result in the biggest mass redundancy in British history.

2 See Best Placed or Britain, 2013


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4.5. The additional hub capacity will stimulate signicant direct, indirect and inducedcontributions to the UK economy. Overall the benet is estimated be in the range o50-156 billion present value (PV), with a central estimate o over 100 billion PV.Most o these benets are reliant upon the improved intercontinental connectivitythan an expanded single hub would deliver.

4.6. We estimate the direct benets to passengers are 18-19 billion PV. This refectsthe additional journeys that passengers will be able to take that would not haveoccurred without the new capacity o a third runway. These benets are comparableto those estimated or Crossrail. However, the wider economic benets to the rest

o the economy, particularly rom international trade and inward investment to theUK and wider economic benets rom productivity and agglomeration are muchmore valuable. Although it is not possible to quantiy these eects with precision, weestimate that they will be in the range o 32-137 billion (PV). This is well abovethe wider economic benets claimed or either Crossrail (7-8 billion) or HS2(5.3 billion).3 Overall the benet will be in the range o 50-156 billion, with acentral estimate o over 100 billion. The benets o a 3rd runway will be achievedby exploiting existing or planned inrastructure (or example, with the implementationo Crossrail in 2019, 75% o East London will be within 60 minutes travel time bypublic transport to Heathrow).

4.7. Heathrow is the most signicant airport or reight in the UK in act it carriesmore reight each year than all other UK airports put together. Air reight is o vitalimportance as it serves major export industries such as electronics, telecoms, nancialand business services. Air reight also serves industries where urgency is a key actor pharmaceutical and biotech industries as well as ood producers are heavy userso air reight, and UK manuacturing relies on air reight to import and export keycomponents to keep actories working. Air reight is primarily carried in the holds opassenger planes and the additional long-haul routes resulting rom a third runwaywill make it easier or British companies to deliver to emerging global markets.

4.8. Evidence shows that aviation connectivity plays a critical role in acilitatinginternational trade, beneting the UK by expanding export markets and providinggreater import choice or UK consumers and businesses. Frontier Economics haveestimated that a lack o direct connections could already be costing the UK up to14bn o lost trade a year, 0.9% o UK GDP. This gure could rise to 26bn a year by2030. We estimate that expanding Heathrow and its connectivity, by adding the thirdrunway, might enable benets o 5-35bn o PV rom new trade.

4.9. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a recognised benet o greater aviation connectivity,with some estimates suggesting that FDI increases by 50% ater a rst directconnection to a oreign region (Bann, Mutinelli, & Redondi, September 2011). It isno coincidence that cities with the most long-haul fights have the most internationalheadquarters. The more a rm relies on international fights, the more likely it isto locate in the immediate area o an airport with excellent connectivity. There are

numerous specic examples o such decisions including: KPMG which moved itsEuropean Headquarters rom Canary Whar, London and Marie Curie Strasse (northo Frankurt) to a location adjacent to Frankurt Airport (south o Frankurt)

4.10. In the UK, we see similar eects in the Thames Valley which, compared to the UKaverage, has:

50% more European businesses (Heathrow provides strong European connectivity)

60% more oreign companies (Heathrow provides the majority o UK long-haulconnectivity)

100% more US companies (Heathrow provides a large majority o UK connectivityto the US)

260% more Japanese companies (Japan is only accessible rom Heathrow).

4.11. We estimate that expanding Heathrow and its connectivity, by adding the third

runway, might generate up to 18bn PV rom new oreign investment.4.12. Heathrow expansion would have a catalytic impact on tourism rom inbound leisure

and stopover passengers. In the global tourism market the UK will increasinglyhave to compete and win against regional rivals in Europe. Part o any competitiveadvantage will be ease o access enabled by direct fight connectivity to emergingareas o tourist origin principally the long-haul markets in the middle and ar East.We estimate benets o 6-11bn o PV rom new inbound tourism.

4.13. Finally, aviation connectivity impacts the productivity o the economy generally.Econometric research commissioned by IATA quanties the link between aviation

3 See http://www.go-hs2.com/BenetsOHS2/EconomicImprovements.aspx

Figure 2: Benets rom a third runway at Heathrow

Beneit ExampleValue to

UK

(bn PV)Direct passenger and reight benefts

More journeys A businesswoman fies who would otherwise not 14

Direct journeys A businessman fies direct, rather than via Dubai 2

Cargo volumes Time crit ical reight is more likely to arri ve at the optimal time 2-3

Airlines, airports and supply chains

Airline GVA Local sta employed by an airline 3-10

Airport GVA Local resident hired to work as a baggage handler 5-15

Supply chain GVA In-fight caterer develops bigger acilities to cater or more passengers 22-37

Wider economic benefts

Trade Rolls Royce wins more orders rom China because o more direct contacts 5-35

Investment A Chinese rm bases its European headquarters in west London 0-18

Inbound tourism A tourist spends a week at a hotel in central London 6-11

Government revenues Corporate tax revenues increase 5

Business clusters and

productivity/innovation

HP and CISCO have HQs in Thames Valley, and benet rom each others

presence as a catalyst to urther productivity and innovation16-68

Total mid-point (excluding airline airport & supply chain GVA) 100bn


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connectivity (along with a number o other explanatory actors such as investmentand R&D) and labour productivity (as a proxy or productivity more generally). Thestatistically signicant nding was that a 10% increase in connectivity to a countrywould boost labour productivity by 0.07%. There are a number o mechanisms atplay here or example: access to wider markets allowing economies o scale inproduction; access to a greater range o suppliers oering more competitive inputmaterials and components, and improving the eciency, robustness and timeliness othe supply chain; clustering o related businesses around a hub supported by aviationconnectivity acting as a spur to innovation by allowing greater networking and

collaboration between companies. These eects are signicantly more pronouncedaround major global aviation hubs, as evidenced by highly productive industryclusters. Industries participating in a strong cluster register higher employmentgrowth, as well as higher wages growth, oce expansion and increased patenting.Industry and cluster level growth also increase with the strength o other relatedclusters in the region and with the strength o similar clusters in adjacent regions(Porter, 2011).

4.14. Based on a range o international examples, we estimate that these wider eects willlead to the creation o 70,000 to 150,000 jobs over time. This refects an extension othe agglomeration eect that is clearly visible today across West London, the ThamesValley and beyond. For example Microsot state that: O the 2,000 people who arebased in our Thames Valley HQ, only about hal o them work in the UK business.The other 50% do jobs which are not UK specifc, they have roles which involve them

in activities across Europe, and sometimes globally. One o the main reasons theyare here is that they do need to travel more and they are in close proximity to thehub airport(Microsot 2013). More connectivity will bring more o these jobs. Weestimate that these new jobs deliver benets o 16-68bn o PV.

Regional and local benefts

4.15. Investment in hub capacity at Heathrow can deliver sustainable growth and jobsboth locally and across the UK regions. Our proposal calls or signicant investmentin Heathrows inrastructure. Such inrastructure will be built using an extensive UKsupply chain based throughout the country.

4.16. Today, there are 111 oreign-owned businesses with headquarters in the ThamesValley that own 149 companies elsewhere in the UK employing between 45-75k workers. 3.7 million people in the UK work or oreign-owned companies.Companies rom the US, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, South Arica and Canadaaccount or hal o these jobs and employ 600,000 people outside London and theSouth East. More growth countries like China being better connected to the UK willsupport increased levels o oreign investment, in turn supporting more jobs acrossthe UK.

4.17. Locally Heathrow supports 114k jobs 75k directly on site and a urther manythousands more indirectly. The number o indirectly supported jobs is estimated toincrease by 70-150k over time ollowing expansion.

4.18. Hal o Heathrows workorce lives in the ve boroughs surrounding the airport.To ensure that local people continue to have the best opportunities to accessemployment we will continue to work with airport companies to oer pre-employment training and apprenticeships.

4.19. By contrast, the impacts o closing or downsizing Heathrow would be signicantor the local area possibly resulting in 63k job losses locally, and potentially theloss o many more jobs indirectly reliant on Heathrow. The productivity o the widereconomic area would be signicantly damaged. The impacts o such unemploymentwould be devastating or the wellbeing o the local community. The direct job losses

would be greater than those that occurred when the largest single redundancyin the UK took place at Shotton Steel in 1985 and MG Rover closed its actory inLongbridge in 2005 (both 6,500 jobs), or the worst year o pit closures in the UK,1984 (30,000 jobs).4

5. Sustainable Heathrow

Managing Heathrow sustainably is core to both the successul operation o theairport today and to our uture growth.

5.1. As the UKs hub airport, we need to demonstrate that we can maximise theeconomic and social benets that fow rom the hubs connectivity, while at thesame time reducing our negative environmental impacts and meeting agreed

environmental limits. In its recently published Aviation Policy Framework (APF), theGovernment acknowledges the benets that aviation and growth in aviation bring, but makes it clear that the industry must play its part in delivering the UKsenvironmental goals and protecting the quality o lie o local communities.

5.2. Heathrow has a strong track record o working sustainably. As part o our businessstrategy or Heathrow to 2020, we have dened long-term goals on key issuessupported by detailed delivery action plans. Our 2020 goals include:

50% o employees at the airport site to be rom the local area

100% o aircrat to meet the current highest international noise standard

34% reduction in CO2 emissions rom energy use in airport inrastructurecompared to 1990

increasing recycling o airport waste to 70%.

5.3. To make our sustainability plans and perormance easier or stakeholders to access,we are planning to publish a comprehensive sustainability strategy Heathrows2020 Sustainability Roadmap once the CAA has issued its nal ve-year regulatorysettlement or the airport.

5.4. To support the sustainable development o Heathrow we will need to put orwarda comprehensive set o measures to minimise our environmental impacts, protectthe quality o lie o local communities, and demonstrate that we can meet robustenvironmental perormance targets.

4 See Best Placed or Britain, 2013


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5.5. In developing plans or adding capacity at Heathrow, we have sought to avoidadverse impacts on local communities and the environment wherever possible.Where this has not been achievable, we have sought to minimise any impactsthrough the layout o the airport and a range o operational measures. Whereimpacts are unavoidable, we have developed plans to provide comprehensivemitigation and compensation.

5.6. At this stage o the Airports Commission process, we have sought to set out asclearly as possible how we would tackle the impacts o growth at Heathrow. Wealso recognise that i Heathrow is short-listed as a location or expansion, we will

need to undertake signicant urther work in consultation with the local communityand other stakeholders.

5.7. In the remainder o this submission we set out our overall approach or tackling ouro the most signicant issues associated with growth: noise, community impacts, airquality and climate change. We provide, or each masterplan option we are puttingorward, a more detailed environmental assessment or each o these topics and orall other relevant environmental topics.

6. More ights, less noise

Even with a third runway, there will be 10-20% ewer people aected by airnoise in 2030 than there are today. We have maintained the principle o runwayalternation to provide periods o respite rom noise or all communities around

Heathrow.

6.1. Heathrow has been at the oreront o measures to tackle aircrat noise. As a result,even though the number o planes using the airport has gone up, ewer people allwithin Heathrows noise contour today than at any time since the 1970s.

6.2. However, despite these improvements, noise remains an issue. We need todemonstrate that Heathrow can grow quietly. There will not be a choice betweenmore fights and less noise; we need to deliver both and we are condent thatwe can.

6.3. In this section we provide an overview o our strategy to tackle noise. We have basedthis on the internationally agreed balanced approach to managing noise. However,much o what we are proposing goes beyond current standards and sets out ourambition to be a world-leading airport in reducing its impacts.

6.4. The Aviation Policy Framework (APF) sets out the Governments overall goal to limitand, where possible, reduce the number o people in the UK signicantly aected byaircrat noise. We support this goal.

6.5. There are a number o ways to measure the eects o noise, o which average noiseexposure contours are one important method. The contour the Government uses tomeasure signicant eects rom aircrat noise is the 57dBA Leq 16hr summer daycontour.5 The APF continues to use this measure, but notes that: this does not meanthat all people within this contour will experience signicant adverse eects romaircrat noise. Nor does it mean that no-one outside o this contour will consider

themselves annoyed by aircrat noise. As such, the APF concludes that this contourdoes not necessarily refect all aspects o the perception o aircrat noise. Weconcur with this view. From our engagement with people living close to Heathrow,we know that providing periods o respite rom noise is also an importantconsideration, as is the impact o night fights.

6.6. In developing options or adding capacity at Heathrow, we have thereore set threeoverall noise objectives:

reduce the number o people aected by noise rom Heathrow during theday and night

provide periods without overfight or all communities around the airport(known as respite)

limit noise levels inside homes and community buildings through sound insulationschemes.

5 This measures the area exposed to average noise levels above57 decibels between 7am and 11pm on a summer day. Noise ismeasured in the summer as it is when the airport is likely to bebusiest and people are more likely to be outdoors.

Figure 3: Steps to delivering our noise objectives

Heathrow Objective 1:reduce the number o people aectedby noise during the day and at night

Steps ollow the international balanced approach to tackling noise

Objective 2:providerespite

Objective 3:reduce noise

in buildings

A

Quieter planes

Baselinepackage Voluntary phase-out

o remaining Chapter3 beore new runwayopens

No 747-400 aircratby 2025

50% o the eet isnext generationtechnology

Furtheropportunities Voluntary phase-out

o remaining Chapter

3 beore new runwayopens

No 747-400 aircratby 2025

90% o the eet isnext generationtechnology

Baselinepackage Perormance Based

Navigation enablingpredictable precisionying

Approach anddeparture routesoptimised to minimisepopulation

Steeper approach 3.2 vs. 3 degrees

Displaced thresholdson runways 2800mmin. runway length

Additionalpackage Industry collaboration

to deliver operatingprocedures onaverage 1dB quieterthan current

Furtheropportunities Route specifc

procedures based onpopulation

Baselinepackage Three runway

locations considered Work with local

authorities so thatbenefts o quieterplanes and proceduresare not eroded bynew residentialdevelopment

Furtheropportunities National Planning

Policy Framework

provides opportunitiesto better zone highnoise areas or nonresidential uses

Furtheropportunities Provide respite

by alternating theapproach routes tothe airport

Research additionalmodes o operation

Furtheropportunities Insulation scheme

requires urther

developmentand communityconsultation

Baselinepackage Operating plan

allows alternationo landings anddepartures betweenrunways

Night-time runwayrotation: only onerunway used ormovements between11pm and 6am

Baselinepackage 100% o insulation

costs or high noiseareas and areasaected by signifcantnew noise

Assistance withrelocation/propertypurchase in highestnoise areas

Baselinepackage Current night

restrictions alreadyamong strictest inEurope

New capacity,plus operationaland airspaceimprovements willminimise late runningdepartures

B

Quieter

operating

procedures

C

Airport layout

& land-use

planning

D

Operating

procedures

or respite

E

Insulation or

peoples homes

and community

buildings

F

Operating

restrictions


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6.7. Our strategy will allow us to increase the number o fights at Heathrow whilereducing the overall number o people that all within Heathrows noise contoursduring both the day and at night. On balance, more people experience a reductiono noise levels than an increase. However, some will experience more fights thantoday. Our overall strategy aims to alleviate those impacts by providing respite orcommunities around the airport, and by providing noise insulation to homes andcommunity buildings exposed to high noise and/or to signicant new noise.

6.8. Our noise strategy is deliverable and practical. The baseline package o noisemeasures to reduce the number o people aected is based on known aviation

technologies and conservative, expert judgement o what will be possible in uture.We believe urther improvements are possible and have outlined those separately.

6.9. The success o the strategy will be dependent on a partnership approach betweenHeathrow and the rest o the aviation industry, including airlines, air navigationservice providers and aircrat / engine manuacturers. It will also require the supporto regulators and policy-makers, and on-going engagement with local communitiesaround the airport, in particular to dene the operating procedures or the airportthat would be o most benet in reducing noise.

Quieter planes

6.10. Aircrat today are signicantly quieter than they were at the start o the jet age,aircrat and engine manuactures have set long-term goals to continue reducingnoise in the uture. Two o the newest aircrat coming into operation are the A380and B787. Based on gures rom their respective manuacturers, the A380 generates

at least 50 per cent less noise than its nearest competitor at take-o and on landing(Airbus), while or the B787, the noise ootprint is some 60% smaller than todayssimilarly-sized aircrat (Boeing).

6.11. Heathrows noise standards play a role in infuencing uture technology as theyare among the strictest in the world. The new Airbus A380, or example, wasdesigned specically to all into one o the quietest categories or night operations atHeathrow. The aircrat that airlines operate at Heathrow are on average around 15%quieter than the total global feets o those airlines, infuenced in part by our variablelanding charges to incentivise quieter planes.

6.11. Heathrows noise standards play a role in infuencing uture technology as theyare among the strictest in the world. The new Airbus A380, or example, wasdesigned specically to all into one o the quietest categories or night operations atHeathrow. The aircrat that airlines operate at Heathrow are on average around 15%

quieter than the total global feets o those airlines, infuenced in part by our variablelanding charges to incentivise quieter planes.

6.12. We have orecast which aircrat types will be operating at Heathrow in 2030. Weexpect that nearly all movements will be operated by known aircrat types. Someo these aircrat are already well established (e.g. B777 and A380), or have recentlyentered service (e.g. B787 Dreamliner) whilst other are expected to enter serviceimminently (e.g. A350) or have been launched with signicant orders already placed(e.g. A320 NEO [New Engine Option]).

6.13. Over hal o the movements at Heathrow are orecast to be using A320 amily

aircrat. These aircrat play a signicant role in the size and shape o the noisecontours and we have assumed that 90% o these movements will be operated byA320 NEO or equivalent aircrat. The NEO was launched in 2010 and, by the endo 2012, had received over 1,700 orders. This aircrat is designed to be 25 dB quieterthan the current ICAO Chapter 3 noise standard. CAA guidance has been used toderive the noise perormance o these aircrat in the context o the existing AirbusA320 amily. Our overall assumptions on quieter planes are consistent with theSustainable Aviation Noise Road-map.

6.14. In addition to the projected feet replacement trends in our baseline package o

noise measures, the introduction o new capacity provides a urther opportunity toincentivise the use o quieter aircrat by speciying noise perormance as a criterionor slot allocation.

Quieter operating procedures

6.15. The procedures used on individual aircrat, and how airspace is designed, can alsoreduce noise. Heathrow already employs a number o procedures that limit noise andwe are committed to continuing to develop, trial and deploy new procedures, and towork with airlines at Heathrow to promote low-noise practices. During 2013 we arelaunching a Fly Quiet Programme to support this work.

6.16. Looking ahead to 2030, we have based our baseline package o noise reductionmeasures on:

Displaced thresholds or all runways This means that aircrat land severalhundred metres urther inside the airport and are higher and thereore quieter onthe approach to the airport

Steeper approaches o 3.2 degrees compared to 3 degrees today. Likedisplaced thresholds, this means that aircrat are higher and thereore quieter onthe approach to the airport

Approach and departure routes designed using new precision navigationtechnology to avoid the most densely populated areas near the airport.

6.17. Although using precision navigation to avoid areas o population aligns with theGovernments goal to reduce the number o people aected by noise, we recognisethat it could urther concentrate aircrat on specic tracks. To alleviate this impact,we believe that advances in navigational technology and airspace design will alsomean that we can extend the concept o alternation rom runways to fight-pathsto provide communities with periods o respite rom noise. There is urther work tobe done with both industry and community stakeholders to determine how best toutilise advances in navigational technology to minimise noise impacts.

6.18. In addition to our baseline package o measures, we believe that we can achieveurther improvements through collaborative working with airlines and industrypartners to identiy and adopt best practice operating procedures with the lowestcommunity impact. For the purposes o this analysis, we have assumed that theseurther improvements would result in an additional 1dBA improvement.

Airport layout and land-use planning

6.19. We have careully considered the siting o a new runway. Two o our options locatethe runway to the west o the existing airport which means that aircrat approaching


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over west London or departing towards London are higher, and thereore quieter, asthey fy over the more densely populated areas to the east o the airport.

6.20. Land-use planning can also play an important role in reducing the impact o aircratnoise by restricting certain types o development in high noise areas. Progress atHeathrow in reducing the size o noise contours has not been matched historicallyby limits on residential development around the airport. We will continue to activelyexplore with Government and Local Authorities how to best approach land useplanning issues, particularly in high noise areas. The reductions in number o peopleexposed to noise are based on population data or 2011 and are dependent in part

on planning policy limiting noise-sensitive development in the areas around theairport aected by noise.

Operating procedures or respite

6.21. Local communities tell us that respite is important to them and so, in developingoptions or a third runway, one o our key objectives has been to maintain theprinciples o runway alternation in order to maximise the opportunities or periods orespite or communities around the airport during easterly and westerly modes.

6.22. We also expect uture aircrat and airspace technology to allow us to extend theconcept o alternation rom runways to fight-paths to help manage noise impactsboth within and outside the traditional noise contours. For example, dierentapproach routes to Heathrow could be used on dierent days o the week. Althoughour work on this is at an early stage, we believe that it oers the prospect osignicant, positive changes in the noise impacts rom Heathrow and are committed

to ully exploring this. We recognise that such an approach will require signicanturther engagement with policy-makers, regulators and airspace managers. It wouldalso need to be developed in dialogue with local communities in order that weunderstand and take into account their views on the kind o operating plan thatwould most benet them. As part o the Operational Freedoms trial at Heathrow,we have supported research to improve understanding o the value o respite and arecommitted to supporting on-going research in this area.

Insulation or homes and community buildings

6.23. Notwithstanding the steps above to reduce noise, in the uture there will still behomes and community buildings in Heathrows noise ootprint. Noise insulationschemes will play an important role in reducing noise levels inside those properties.

6.24. The most generous noise schemes elsewhere in the world have typically been

introduced when governments have given the go ahead or new airport capacityand they are oten state-unded, at least in part. In areas where noise levels are high,or areas that experience signicant new noise, noise insulation should be providedto homes and community buildings. In the highest noise areas support shouldbe provided or relocation and/or consideration given to purchasing properties. IHeathrow is short-listed or expansion, we would need to undertake signicanturther work on the detail o insulation, in consultation with the local community.

Noise at night

6.25. Operations at night are an important eature o a hub airport but also a signicantconcern or local residents. O the major European hub airports, Heathrow has the

strictest limits on operations between 11pm and 6am and the ewest fights. Wehave assumed that restrictions at Heathrow will continue to be strict in uture andplan to operate only one runway or the small number o fights operating between11pm and 6am. This means that local residents could benet rom signicant breaksbetween nights when they experience overfight.

Community engagement

6.26. An eective aircrat noise management regime is underpinned by eectivestakeholder engagement and consultation. We aim to provide clear and accessibleinormation on noise around Heathrow, and to take local views into account in

developing the best package o measures to reduce noise. We have regularlybenchmarked our community engagement against other leading global airports toidentiy and act upon areas or improvement. We are working increasingly closely withlocal resident groups and local authorities to improve our communications and to trialnew noise management procedures, and will continue and develop that approach.We are currently investigating ways to describe potential uture changes to howHeathrow operates and what this will mean or residents in a more accessible way.

7. The UKs integrated transport hub

New public transport services could link Heathrow to the whole o the UK andallow more passengers to comortably access Heathrow on public transport thanever beore. Heathrow could deliver more ights without increasing airport-related

trafc on the road.7.1. Since the 1970s, around 20-25 billion o rail inrastructure with a connection to

Heathrow has been invested or committed. On top o that, there is an extensivemotorway network that serves the airport, including the M3, M4, M40 and M25,which would cost around 26 million per mile to build at todays prices. Thisextensive, and growing abric o surace access inrastructure makes Heathrowhighly accessible.

7.2. New public transport inrastructure, most o which is already planned or committed,could enable 15 million more passengers to use public transport to access Heathrowby 2030. This could increase Heathrows public transport mode share rom 40%today to more than 50% in 2030, despite the additional number o passengers usingthe airport. These public transport improvements will be complemented by a range omeasures to encourage more sustainable travel by airport employees. These include

expanding Heathrows employee car share scheme (already the worlds largest), butalso reducing the proportion o employee car parking spaces. It is possible to deliver athird runway without increasing airport-related trac on the roads.

7.3. Heathrows surace access is unrivalled. It is extremely well located in relation to thestrategic highway network with direct access rom the M25 and M4, as well as beingwithin 10 miles o the M40 and M3. It is served by ast and requent rail services intoLondon, provided by Heathrow Express, Heathrow Connect and the Piccadilly Line, aswell as operating as the busiest bus and coach hub in the UK.

7.4. Over 16 million people live within a 60-minute journey time, with 6 million having a


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public transport option. As a result, over 40% o passengers use public transport and35% o employees use sustainable travel modes to access the airport.

7.5. With seven rail and tube stations at the airport, and over 540,000 annual busand coach movements, neighbouring communities and businesses benet romconnections to London and the rest o the UK. For over 20 years we have supportedand encouraged the wider role that Heathrow plays as an integrated transport hub.Additionally, there is an established logistics network around the airport which allowsit to operate as a signicant reight hub with over 1.5m tonnes o cargo p.a.

Our objectives

7.6. We have developed ambitious objectives that our strategy can achieve at the traclevels predicted by 2030 namely:

No more airport-related cars on the road than there are today

A continuous and signicant improvement in airport passenger public transportmode share to over 50%.

7.7. The success o the strategy will be dependent on a partnership approach betweenHeathrow and key stakeholders and those agencies with a role in the delivery opublic transport inrastructure and services.

Our surace access inrastructure strategy

7.8. Our practical and deliverable strategy, builds on existing committed projects and onour current signicant surace access assets and services (such as Heathrow Express)

to meet the needs o all users.7.9. These improvements have been identied to enhance connectivity to Heathrows

largest catchments, as well as centres o business and population across the UK,beneting aviation passengers, employees and people rom the surroundingcommunities:

Crossrail a committed project.

In 2019, Crossrail will provide direct rail access to the West End, the City, CanaryWhar and East London. Crossrail will bring the heart o Londons nancial districtand much o East London within a 60 minute catchment area or Heathrow.Journey times rom Whitechapel, Canary Whar and Stratord to Heathrow will be36, 40, and 41 minutes respectively. In the longer term, an increase in requencyo services to the airport would be possible to support the growth in passengerand employee numbers.

Piccadilly Line upgrade a committed project.Transport or Londons planned upgrade o the Piccadilly Line will see tuberequency and journey time improvements or all users, including those travellingto Heathrow. Even with the advent o Crossrail, it will remain a key mode o publictransport access or connecting London to the UKs hub airport, particularly orcatchments to the west o London.

Western Rail Access a committed project.

By 2021, Western Rail Access will provide ast direct connections betweenHeathrow and Slough, Reading, and the wider Thames Valley, as well as improving

journey times to the South West and South Wales.

High Speed Two Phase 1 is a committed project; Phase 2 has policy support,subject to outcome o Airports Commission. In 2026, HS2 Phase 1 will connectHeathrow to the Midlands via a new interchange at Old Oak Common whichwill be served by Heathrow Express and Crossrail services. In 2032, Phase 2 willprovide direct connections to key cities in the Midlands, the North and Scotland,dramatically reducing journey times. Government anticipates that Heathrowwould be served by an on-airport station at T5.

Southern Rail Access strong policy support rom Network Rail and stakeholders.

A new southern rail link into the airport would provide rail access to keycatchments in South and South West London, Surrey and the South Coast.Heathrow is committed to working closely with Network Rail and other keylocal stakeholders to identiy the optimum route alignment or connecting theseimportant catchments to Heathrow.

We will also introduce new and enhanced bus and coach services, building on the540,000 annual movements today.

Boosting the UKs connectivity and reducing journey times

7.10. Delivering only 17 miles o new railway (Southern Rail Access, Western Rail Accessand HS2 Spur) can provide direct access between Heathrow and the southern,western and high speed rail networks. This would open up over 2,000 miles o thestrategic rail network or Heathrows passengers and sta.

7.11. The new rail connections will also provide wider UK connectivity. It will be quickeror people in areas to the south o Heathrow (such as Guildord, Southampton,Bournemouth and Portsmouth) to travel to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds onHS2 via Heathrow. This will remove the need to travel via central London, helping toreduce the strain on key central London termini and the Underground network.

Figure 4: Improved journey times to Heathrow (mins)

Journey times to Heathrow (mins)

Largest city TodayWith new inrastructure

and services in placeJourney time saving

Birmingham 130 49 81

Leeds 190 82 108

Glasgow 333 218 115

Sheeld 193 79 114

Bradord 215 107 108

Edinburgh 325 218 107

Liverpool 187 96 91

Manchester 190 68 122

Nottingham 170 68 102


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Positively inuencing travel behaviour

7.12. Our strategy will be supported by a range o incentives, behavioural measures anddemand management building on Heathrows award-winning sustainable travelinitiatives including:

supporting urther improvements to Heathrows comprehensive bus and coachnetwork, building on existing strong partnerships with bus and coach operators

inormation technology oering more real-time inormation and journey planningtools to ensure inormed and engaged travellers

marketing, incentives and promotions or public transport use

reduction in sta car parking supply with urther priority given to car sharing

systems and incentives to encourage more ecient taxi use amongst airpassengers

improvements to the cycle network and urther development o the existingHeathrow Cycle Hub to oer incentives and support to cyclists using the airport

collaboration with operators to deliver urther consolidation o reight vehiclemovements, more ecient use o vehicle feets and available carrying capacity tominimise the impact o reight movement.

7.13. Our analysis indicates that through implementing our strategy passenger publictransport mode share will exceed 50% by 2030:

7.14. Total passengers travelling by public transport would rise rom 19 million per annumtoday to 34 million in 2030. This will include approximately 24 million passengersusing rail, which represents over a third o all non-transer passengers using the airport.

7.15. Daily trac levels have been assessed or a busy day. The 2011 baseline isapproximately 150,000 vehicle movements, with 60% o vehicle movementspassenger-related. Taxis and kiss and fy represent less than 50% o passenger tripsbut they contribute over 90% o passenger-related vehicle movements. As a result,behavioural measures have been developed specically to reduce these movements,resulting in only marginal increases in passenger-related vehicle trips, despite totalpassengers increasing rom 70mppa to 100mppa.

7.16. There would also be a substantial shit in sta travel choices as a result o theproposed improvements to the public transport oer, other incentives and limitingsta car parking supply. These measures will help to raise employee public transportmode share to 40%, increase car sharing and reduce single occupancy car use tobelow 50%. Our trac analysis shows that the orecast reduction in sta-related carmovements would oset the marginal increase in passenger-related trac expectedin 2030.

7.17. Beyond 2030, we anticipate that there will be signicant improvements in publictransport vehicle technology, as well as changes in policy and attitudes to publictransport. These are expected to deliver urther modal shit to public transport, betteruse o capacity and urther reductions in transport-related emissions. The strategy willseek to maintain local trac levels close to those experienced today at 130 millionpassengers per annum.

Figure 5: Annual airport passenger demand by public transport

Figure 6: Daily trac levels in 2011 and 2030

Figure 7: Drivers o public transport mode share change to 2030

0Underground

Passengers(millionsperyear)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

B us /C oac h H eat hr ow E xp re ss C on ne ct /C ro ss ra il We st er n/ So ut he rn r ail

2011 2030

0Park and fypassenger

Dailyvehiclemovements(thousands)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Kiss and fy Taxi Employee Total

2011 2030

02011

Passengerspublictransportmodeshare

10

20

30

40

50

60

Backgroundchange to

2030

EnhancedCrossrail

WesternConnection

SouthernConnection

HS2 New coachroutes

Publictransportincentives

Total by2030

3.7% 1.2% 0.7%0.7% 0.3%

2.3% 1.2%


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Making the best use o existing capacity

7.18. We have developed our strategy to ensure there will be no more airport-relatedcars on the road in 2030 than there are today. Thereore, we expect no majorimprovements to highway capacity to be necessary as part o the proposals toexpand Heathrow.

7.19. Beyond 2030, we will seek to limit trac growth and there are a range o potentialbehavioural measures that can help achieve this. In addition, changes in public policy,attitudes to public transport and technology that will provide urther opportunity tominimise the trac impacts o airport and background trac growth.

7.20. As we develop the proposals urther, localised improvements will need to be renedon certain o our proposed master plan options. However, we envisage that solutionscan be prepared working in partnership with the relevant highway authorities.

7.21. Our analysis shows that the proposed rail connections can provide sucient capacityto support airport passengers and sta, as well as new demand generated as a resulto the improved connectivity available to non-airport users. Based on the publiclyavailable inormation on proposals or the rail network to 2030, it will be possible toaccommodate the train paths or new and enhanced services to Heathrow.

7.22. The combination o Heathrow Express and Crossrail services will provide sucientcapacity to serve airport demand to London. Airport demand can complement otherrequirements on the Great Western mainline. Similarly, or the South West networkwe believe that opportunities exist to optimise capacity and meet dierent demands

on the network, with urther opportunities potentially arising rom other proposedschemes such as Crossrail 2. We look orward to exploring these opportunitiesurther with Network Rail.

7.23. The Piccadilly Line upgrade will increase capacity across the entire route including toand rom Heathrow. At the same time, Crossrail will provide an attractive alternativeto Heathrow travellers or accessing central London. This will provide signicantcapacity relie, in particular on the central London section where crowding ispredicted to be highest in 2030. Our analysis shows that Heathrow passengers usingthe Piccadilly Line in the morning and evening peak periods will reduce in the centralsections by 2030 as a result o wider improvements such as Crossrail.

7.24. Comparing Heathrows proposed transport inrastructure with other potential huboptions, notably Stansted and a potential new hub airport in the estuary, Heathrowwould have over our and a hal million more people living within a 60-minute

travel time catchment. As such, or most UK passengers, a hub airport to the east oLondon would be in the wrong place. Travel times, and by association carbon, wouldincrease or 90% o hub passengers, with their average journey time increasing by30 minutes. In terms o carbon thereore, expanding hub capacity in the east willcome with a material carbon penalty. Any new hub would need to build vast newinrastructure rom scratch expending unnecessary carbon in the process.

Heathrow the UKs Integrated Transport Hub

7.25. Heathrow is committed to promoting integrated transport. We have developeda strategy to support a third runway that is deliverable and practical. The

strategy represents a signicant commitment rom Heathrow, but also requirespartnership rom Government and other delivery partners. Through public transportimprovements and other sustainable travel measures, we can deliver a step change inpublic transport mode share or passengers and employees and limit trac to todayslevels in 2030. The strategy will also make best use o existing capacity on the widernetwork, transorming journey times and connectivity or both airport users andneighbouring communities.

8. Improving air quality around Heathrow

The use o cleaner vehicles and the increased proportion o passengers using publictransport mean that capacity at Heathrow can be added whilst also improving localair quality in line with EU standards.

8.1. Limits on air pollution levels apply in residential areas in Europe. The principalpollutants o concern in London, in common with other towns and cities in Europe,are:

nitrogen dioxide (NO2)

particulate matter (PM10): particles with an aerodynamic diameter o less than 10micrometres (m).

8.2. Meeting the limits or NO2 and PM10 is a challenge or local authorities across theUK and or Government. All 33 London boroughs have declared at least one Air

Quality Management Area (AQMA) or which they have developed action plans withthe aim o improving air quality. Heathrow is in the southern part o an AQMA inthe borough o Hillingdon. O the pollutants about which the EU is concerned, onlynitrogen dioxide (NO2) is above the limits, predominantly at residential propertieslocated close to heavily tracked roads. Particulate matter already meets air qualitylimits in this area and we expect that to remain the case.

8.3. It is road trac emissions that contribute most to concentrations o NO2 beyondthe airport boundary, where the air quality limits are currently exceeded. A portiono these vehicles are driven by passengers and sta accessing the airport, althoughthe majority o trac on the major roads near Heathrow is not airport-related. Atthe M4 near Heathrow, or example, less than 25% o trac is airport-related.Local air quality around Heathrow is also aected by local industry, domestic sources(household gas boilers) and emissions rom more distant sources. Although aircrat

and airside operations aect local air quality, their contribution alls quickly withdistance rom the airport and is at very low levels 2km away.

8.4. Air quality management is a key priority or Heathrow and we are committed toplaying our part to help improve air quality to meet the limits. In 2011 we publishedour Air Quality Strategy setting out the steps we are taking to reduce Heathrowsimpact locally. We work in partnership with Government and local authorities toreduce emissions rom both airport and non-airport sources around Heathrow.Through this work, we currently expect the areas closest to Heathrow i.e. wherethe airports proportionate contribution to total NO2 concentrations is higher tomeet the limits between 2015 and 2020.


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8.5. To support the sustainable development o Heathrow, a package o actions havebeen identied to add capacity while also continuing to improve air quality,consistent with European standards. We have developed a baseline package omitigation measures that is deliverable and practical. These measures are based onknown technologies and conservative, expert judgement o what will be possible.The success o these measures will be dependent on a partnership approach betweenHeathrow and the rest o the aviation industry, including other companies operatingat and around Heathrow, and transport providers serving the airport. It will alsorequire the support o national policy-makers, regulators, and neighbouring local

authorities. The key measures are set out below.Surace access to and rom the airport

8.6. Exhaust emissions rom road trac around Heathrow are the primary contributor tobreaches o the NO2 limit. We are incentivising the use o more sustainable transportmodes to manage both total vehicle numbers and emissions. To ensure that thecontribution that Heathrow-related road trac makes to air quality is limited, and asoutlined in Section 6, we have set an objective o no more airport-related cars on theroad in 2030 than today as a result o Heathrow expansion. To achieve this, we willincrease the proportion o passengers using public transport to reach Heathrow toover 50%.

8.7. Meeting the air quality limits will require a holistic approach, as many journeys madeon the busiest roads around Heathrow are not connected with travel to and romthe airport. Our targets will be achieved by working with partners on major transport

projects already committed including the Piccadilly Line upgrade, Crossrail, theWestern Extension and High Speed 2 as well as rom measures to incentivise theiruse and change travel behaviours. These include, or example, improving bus, coachand cycle inrastructure; integrating real-time inormation into journey planning tools;incentivising change through marketing and promotions; and urther consolidationo reight movements. Where expansion o the airport requires new surace accessinrastructure and improvements to existing road links and junctions, this will bedesigned to ensure that the air quality limits will not be breached.

Cleaner vehicles

8.8. In addition to our strategy o limiting the numbers o vehicles using the road networkaround Heathrow, European emission standards require that on-going reductions inemissions per vehicle are achieved. These standards or new vehicles have deliveredsome emission reductions rom petrol and diesel vehicles in the local area and weexpect the rate o reduction o vehicle emissions to increase with the introductiono more stringent European emission standards rom 2014 onwards. We thereoreexpect average, feet-wide vehicle emissions to urther reduce.

8.9. In addition, new zero-emission technologies, particularly electric and hydrogen,will penetrate the market in greater volumes rom now on. The current ocialGovernment orecasts o transport emissions which we have used to assess air qualityin uture do not actor in zero-emission technologies. However, we believe that thereare signicant opportunities or these technologies in the coming years. For example,

we note that the Committee on Climate Change has projected in its 2013 ProgressReport that by 2022 5% o cars and 4% o vans could be using this technology. Thiscreates a urther opportunity to improve air quality beyond the results presented inthis submission and is an area which we are actively researching.

8.10. We operate a Clean Vehicle Partnership which promotes low and zero-emissiontechnology or airside operations. We are already actively testing increasing numberso electric and hydrogen powered vehicles or use on the airport as we believe theyhave the potential to be a more durable and cleaner replacement or diesel vehicles.Through the Partnership we are working closely with Heathrow-based companies to

assess the uel and eciency savings that they can achieve through using these newvehicle technologies.

8.11. Through nancial contributions, we are already acilitating the accelerated take-upo low emission vehicles that operate landside, either through contract or ownership.One example is hybrid buses: in 2013 we supported First Groups decision to buy10 hybrid buses6 or their route between Slough and Heathrow, reducing bothuel use and exhaust emissions. We also host supporting inrastructure, such asthe rst publicly available hydrogen uelling station7, installed in 2012, and we areinvestigating how to urther extend the number o electric charging points alreadyinstalled or passenger use.

8.12. Given these developments we are condent that we will be able to urther increasethe proportion o zero-emissions electric and hydrogen vehicles operating atHeathrow. Furthermore, we will also actively explore steps that we should take to

provide additional support and incentives or the use o zero-emissions vehicles bysta and passengers and to restrict the use o more polluting vehicles.

Cleaner planes and emission reduction procedures

8.13. The contribution that aircrat make to air quality impacts is lower relative to otheremission sources, such as road trac, where emissions occur closer to residentialproperties where the air quality limits apply. Ater an aircrat leaves the runwayand starts to climb, the contribution o the engine emissions to ground-levelconcentrations decreases with increasing height. So once the aircrat reaches a heighto a ew hundred metres it makes little contribution to ground-level concentrations.However, there are currently locations close to the airport boundary where emissionsrom aircrat combine with those rom other local sources, predominantly road trac,and lead to breaches o the air quality limits. Thereore, in addition to reducing

emissions rom road trac, it remains important to minimise emissions rom aircratin order to help achieve the limits.

6 Purchased through DTs Green Bus Fund. First Group will buy a urther 5 vehicles in 20137 Hydrogen lling station is a deliverable o the HyTEC Project. Funding support is provided rom t he EUs FP7

programme or the Fuel Cells & Hydrogen Joint Technology Initiative


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8.14. ICAOs Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) sets limits on theemissions o NOX in a standardised landing and take-o (LTO) cycle. Over the last20 years, the Committee has set

Documents

Heathrow Airport Ltd. - Proposals for Providing Additional Airport Capacity in the Longer Term