Hazard Consequence Threshold Models for Emergency

Hazard Consequence Threshold Models for Emergency Management and Response Decision Making

Lead-PI: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island (URI) Graduate School of OceanographyCo-PI: Austin Becker, URI Marine Affairs; Pam Rubinoff, URI Coastal Resources CenterPartners: Chris Damon (URI Environmental Data Center), Peter Stempel (RI School of Design), Sam Adams (URI Public Safety and President of RI Association of Emergency Managers )

Student researchers supported through CRC: Ellis Kalaidjian, Noah Hallisey, Samantha Radov, Bobby Witkop, Vanessa Garcia, Peter Stempel

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020

High-resolution ADCIRC modeling (~20m - 40m unstructured grid) +Ground-truthed, locally derived vulnerability data

= POWERFUL IMPACT PREDICTION OPPORTUNITY


Providence, RIWastewater clarifie

r

Elevation: 3m

Transformer

Elevation: 2m

Year 1-5 Goals (under Isaac Ginis project)

1. Develop method to integrate qualitative data into real-time hazard & impact prediction system for hurricanes & nor'easters in New England (Y1-3)

2. Develop and refine methodology to collect qualitative concerns for critical infrastructure facilities (Y3-5)

3. Prototype system for real-time storm modeling and planning: ADCIRC-Surge Guidance System (ASGS) (Y5)

Leverage high-resolution storm modeling capabilities to create model outputs that incorporate enduser concerns into real-time tools for Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs).


Engaged key end-users in the development to ensure relevance for planning and response


[Through this project] RIDOH and … the Healthcare Coalition of Rhode Island have deepened their understanding of the hazards and consequences that face this infrastructure. RIDOH and its partners are eager to continue participation in this project and to explore ways to leverage the data collected in support of Rhode Island's healthcare system.

Nicholas LarmoreCenter for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Rhode Island Dept. of Health

Key partners

Storm models rarely account for stakeholder’s local concerns and lack relevant informationneeded for local-level storm preparations.

Facility managers understand their own vulnerabilities & locations.

Facility managers need to understand model outputs on their own terms.

Enduser participation increases the credibility and value of the storm models outputs.

Flooded server room results in lost communication for RI’s Health network

Consequence Thresholds (CTs) complement other quantitative

assessment tools


Specific, local, flexible

Triggered consequence &

time of occurrence

ADCIRC Nodes- Sea surface height - Significant wave height- Velocity

NetCDF file(s)

Consequences

Database Entry- LiDAR elevation CT point- Threshold for impact triggered- Indexed to relevant nodes

Consequence Threshold (CT) Database & ‘R’ analysis script

Dashboard

Year 1 – 3 Goal: Integrate CT Database with Real-Time Models

MANUSCRIPT PUBLISHED: Stempel, P., Ginis, I., Ullman, D., Becker, A., & Witkop, R. (2018). Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 6(4), 134.


Westerly, RI, Pilot Study Results

192 Hazard Consequences Identified:(50) Mobility (roads/vehicles)(41) Power (power lines/electrical panels/generators)

(40) Communications (telephone lines/antennas)

(34) Facility specific equipment (pump stations/wells)

(24) Structural (windows/roofs)(5) Personnel

MANUSCRIPT PUBLISHED -- Witkop, R., Becker, A., Stempel, P., Ginis, I. (2019). Incorporating critical facility managers’ knowledge into hazard impact models: A case study of Westerly, Rhode Island. Frontiers in Earth Science: Geohazards and Georisks.


11 critical facility site visits(13 interviews)

30 min into storm

Year 1 – 3: Results Method for Integrating CT Database into Real-

Time Models

Wind>70 mph: “Our fire department loses our voice radio antenna & we cannot dispatch.” --Fire chief

Westerly (RI) pilot (2016-2018)

Inundation>1 foot:“Any surge & we can’t reach homes around the lighthouse.” --Fire chief

ADCIRC simulated storm surge and coastal flooding

60 min into storm


Inundation>2 feet: “The water distribution pipes could be broken, which might contaminate the town’s water supply.”

--Water department manager


Time ModelsWesterly (RI) pilot (2016-

2018)

120 min into storm


Inundation>2 feet:“When water reached two feet here, we would bring in a mobile substation.”

--Power plant manager

Inundation>3 feet: “The plant’s motors would need replacing. We could be down for months.”

--WWTP manager


Time ModelsWesterly (RI) pilot (2016-

2018)

Hurricane Rhody scenario used to train emergency managers and first responders in collaboration with FEMA, NOAA, DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis.

Major Milestone: FEMA Emergency Management Course Cranston, RI June 19 – 22, 2017

11>160 participants from federal, state and local agencies, non-profit organizations

Years 3-5: Providence Study


GOAL: Expand & refine approach for RIEMA’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC)

Port of Providence Project steering committee meeting Providence Hurricane Barrier

• 12 steering committee members• 31 facility managers interviewed• 11 site visits• 5 focus groups held• 45 critical infrastructure facilities

surveyed• 306 CTs (for wind, surge, flooding)

Sectors


The predictive models of impacts on critical infrastructure are particularly essential to evaluating and prioritizing infrastructure investments with the goal of preserving and protecting vital lifelines.

Kevin Kugel, Director, Providence Emergency Management Agency

Summary of Consequence

Thresholds Data (Providence)

17

229

60

PCII Sensitivity*

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Level 1 - Available only to reporting facility (e.g., RIDOH)Level 2 - Available to pertinent municipal and state emergency community sector leadLevel 3 - Available to the public

271

629

Hazard Type

Flooding Surge Wind

1

126

155

24

Recovery Period

No Data Short TermMedium Term Long Term

Short Term – Up to one week

Medium Term – week to months

Long Term – Months to years


*Protected Critical Infrastructure Information

Asset Security level

Hazard type

Hazard threshold

Consequences noted by facility manager

RecoveryPeriod

Generator 2 Flood 48”

Loss of refrigeration; blood products at higher risk of

bacterial contamination; no testing for New England region

Medium


Example:

Rhode Island Blood Center

[protected]

[protected]

Asset Security level

Hazard type

Hazard threshold

Consequences noted by facility manager

RecoveryPeriod

Electrical substation

2 Flood 24”

Flooding damages the substation and power is lost;

unable to treat wastewater; raw sewage discharge to Bay

Long


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Example:

Narragansett Bay Commission Wastewater Treatment Facility

1. Interactive map displays inundation and facilities

2. Date/Time advance as scenario progresses or in real time with ADCIRC outputs

3. Filter data by attributes in the database

4. Running tally of all facility impacts and separated by sector

5. Consequences triggered

EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype[protected]

Prov. Port: Impacts at T1

EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype

[protected]

User “clicks” on a point to see both facility info and projected water depth at that time step.


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EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype

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EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype[protected]


This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-ND0001-01. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S Department of Homeland Security.

Documents

Hazard Consequence Threshold Models for Emergency