Gregor Gregorič Environmental Agency of the Republic of

SloveniaMeteorological Office

gregor.gregoric@gov.si

National seminar on Drought Management, Zagreb, 16 April 2012

Drought Management Centrefor Southeastern Europe

Contents

• DMCSEE – from initiative to TCP project

• Content of the DMCSEE project – Drought monitoring– Drought risk assessment– Trainings

• Summary - lessons learned

From initiative to operability• 1998 need for Balkan subregional center • 2004 Center initiative – “top-down” approach

(International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) adopted a declaration which expressed the need to establish this centre to alleviate problems caused by drought in the area “Balkan Drought Workshop” in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD)

• 2006 triangle approach: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO) (Workshop for national experts and representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services where they agreed on DMCSEE within context of UNCCD)

• 2006 decision on DMCSEE host institution (procedure led by WMO).

• 2007 – 2009 advocacy , management, steering committee, active institutions in consortium.

• since 2008 first drought monitoring products, fund raising, cooperation with JRC (Eurogeoss project and EDO portal)

• April 2009 – May 2012 Transnational cooperation programme project

DMCSEE todayThe DMCSEE TCP project is envisaged as

“bridge project” phase aiming at development of functions of the centre.

Transnational Cooperation Programme for SE Europe

www.southeast-europe.net

Main aim of transnational cooperation programme is to foster a balanced territorial development and territorial integration within the cooperation area

-> common infrastructure, not research!

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

15 partners from 9 countries

Total project budget 2.2 M€

Not all countries participate!

(not all countries are eligible)

consortium

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesRegional drought monitoring

What is drought monitoring?

- No single drought definition

- Artifitial division needed for operational reasons

- Drought indices should vary, depending on current situation

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of meteorological drought

Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

-Standardized statistical departure of precipitation amount in predifined time range

-> more on SPI – next presentations

Lincoln declaration on drought indices - 2009-12-30

….

Experts participating in the Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought, held in Lincoln Dec. 8-11, made a significant step in agreeing that all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world should use the Standardized Precipitation Index to characterize meteorological droughts.

….

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of meteorological drought

Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Using GPCC data, some preliminary maps of the SPI, Percentiles and Precipitation for the region are prepared.For period 1951-2000 maps are available.

Standard tool for monitoring and early warning of meteorological drought

Standardized precipitation index (SPI), computed from GPCC data

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of meteorological drought

Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

GIS application and Web Mapping Service

Available on www.dmcsee.org/GISapp

Enables DMCSEE partners to upload their products, composits are calculated automatically

Currently available climatological maps (precip. and temp.) and SPI index

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of meteorological drought

Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

International collaboration

DMCSEE mapping service included in EuroGEOSS drought catalogue and in European Drought Observatory

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of agricultural drought

Most important parameter for monitoring agricultural drought is soil moisture.

Natural tools for monitoring soil moisture:- Local measurements- Irrigation sheduling models

WinISAREG: water balance model for simulating cropirrigation schedules. Developed in Technical University of Lisbon (prof. L.-S. Pereira).

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of agricultural drought

WinIsareg:

• soils divided into several layers;

• large selection of irrigation methods;

• results: variety of data

- required data

CROP DATA

dates of phenological stages

SOIL DATA

data for different soil layers

CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA

humidity, wind, sunshine…

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of agricultural drought

WinIsareg outputs:

Net irrigation requirement (NIR):

Amount of water needed that plants don’t experience water strees (prescribed moisture level).

- Daily irrigation values

- Annual sums

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesMonitoring of agricultural drought

WinIsareg outputs:

Net irrigation requirement (NIR):

Amount of water needed that plants don’t experience water stres (prescribed moisture level).

- Daily irrigation values

- Annual sums

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesAgricultural drought – risk assessment

WinIsareg outputs:

Shortage of water causes yield decrease.

Plants in stress transpirate less than optimally irrigated plants:

RYD = Ky x AET/PET

RYD – relative yield decrease

AET – actual evapotranspiration

PET – potential evapotranspiration

Ky – linear coeficcient in range 1.2 – 1.8

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesAgricultural drought – risk assessment

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesSensitivity and vulnerability to drought

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activitiesSensitivity and vulnerability to drought

Summary

- Drought monitoring: basic index implementation not issue; some further development needed (remote sensing, …) – not priority

- Risk assessment – certain techniques implemented (geo-morphological sensitivity to drought, risk assessment in agriculture).

- IMPORTANT: Identification of stakeholders within countries and description of:

• their functions in drought prepardness or mitigation• their specific interests in drought management• their comments and requirements in regards of available products

Summary (cont.)

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (examples)

- Implementation of drought monitoring in legal framework

- Incorporate planning, implementation of plans, mitigation measures and risk management among the elements of effective national drought policy

- Development of insurance and financial strategies in order to move away from relying on emergency relief in response to widespread drought.

- …? (Discussion)

Summary (cont.) 10-step implementation procedure

1. Appoint a Drought Task Force.2. Define the Purpose and Objective of the Drought Plan.3. Seek stakeholder’s participation and Resolve Conflict.4. Inventory Resources and Identify Groups at Risk.5. Develop Organizational Structure and prepare Drought Plan.6. Integrate Science and Policy, close Institutional Gaps.7. Publicize the proposed Plan, Solicit Reaction.8. Implement the Plan.9. Develop Education Programmes.10. Post Drought Evaluation.