Graeme Maxton Barcelona, December 2015 · 100 200 300 400 500 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 CO2 in atmosphere (←scale) ppm deg C Temperature rise (scale →) 0.9 m Sea level rise (scale

© Club of Rome 2015

Graeme MaxtonBarcelona, December 2015

The future of employment


What is the Club of Rome?


Where we are we now?

Business as usual

Limits to Growth

Planet's initial carrying capacityPlanet's current carrying capacitySustainable path

Carrying

Capacity

%


Four serious environmental consequences - 1- Climate Change

© Club of Rome 2015Hurricane Sandy 2012

© Club of Rome 2015Typhoon Haiyan 2013, 6300 dead


Australia 2013


0

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200

300

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500

0,0

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CO2 in atmosphere(←scale)

deg Cppm

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0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10

Without change, we will pass +2ºC in 2050

Source: Randers, 2052 model Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

401X

© Graeme Maxton 2015

Two degrees is a lot

© Club of Rome 2015Munich RE

200% increase in climactic events over 30 years


Government spending will be diverted progressively towards repairs

Source: Randers, 2052 model

197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520500

30

60

90

120

150

World GDP

Non-discretionaryspending

(repair, adaptation, mitigation)

G$ / yr

Consumption

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4

Traditionalinvestment, 24% of GDP

will rise to 35%


Without change, think resilience– higher migration flows

– more sea defences

– need to reinforce buildings in areas unused to extremes of temperature and humidity

– increased incidence of infectious diseases and poverty

– water shortages, floods and food chain disruption

– finance sector instability and economic shocks

– civil discord and the rise of political extremism


Four serious environmental problems 2 - Pollution

“Protect the Environment”


Algal bloom, Florida

© Club of Rome 2015Pacific trash vortex

© Club of Rome 2015Source: Greenpeace


Four serious environmental problems

3 – Resource destruction

Chuquicamata, Chile, the world's largest circumference open pit copper mine

© Club of Rome 2015Sumatra, Indonesia



Lake Hume 1% fullMurray Darling Basin Australia 2007


Four serious environmental problems 4 – Biodiversity Loss

© Club of Rome 2015The bottle tops, batteries and plastic parts look like food

© Club of Rome 2015Loss of freshwater resources: Aral Sea, once the world's fourth largest lake


Why do we not act?

© Club of Rome/Graeme Maxton 2015

1990 1995 2000 2005 201075

85

95

105

115

125

135

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

8,5

Source: IMF database 2014, data is for All Advanced economies, 1990-2013, Poverty statistics from OECD,org/social/equality.htm Ave income of top 10% as a multiple of bottom 10%, after tax, adjusted for household size

Despite growth in the developed world unemployment has risen

GDP

Unemployment

We think (wrongly) that growth brings jobs

Growth

2000

=100

%Unem-ployed

Advanced economies


We think (wrongly) that growth reduces inequality

OECD October 2014


We think (wrongly) that growth fixes poverty

48 live on less than $2 a day32 breathe polluted air30 have too little to eat24 have no electricity23 have no shelter17 are illiterate17 have no clean drinking water16 have no toilets1 owns half the total wealth

If the world were a village of 100 people....


We fear change

Occupy Vancouver and New York


The future of employment


Science fiction is about to become fact


In the developed world, 47% of jobs at risk

Jobs with high probability of redundancy within 20 years

Insurance clerks 98%Bank credit analysts 98%Auditors and accountants 94%Legal assistants 94%Waiters and waitresses 94%Couriers and messengers 94%Retail assistants 92%Taxi drivers 89%Carpenters 72%

Source: The Future of Employment, How susceptible are jobs to computerisation, Frey and Osborne, September 2013


Close personal contact, mostly low pay

Jobs with low probability of redundancy within 20 years

Kindergarten teachers 15%Hairdressers 11%Animal trainers 10%Police officers 10%Fitness trainers 9%Lawyer partners 4%Make-up artists 1%Choreographers 0.4%


What does this mean?

● For unemployment rates and welfare costs?

● Consumption and spending patterns?

● Inequality – Back to the Dark Ages?

● For the finance sector?

– Loan repayments

– Asset values


How do we solve these problems?

1 – shorten the workingyear, the working week and the working day 2 – pay home carers3 – raise retirementage for those who wish4 – boost welfare payments for a guaranteed living wage5 – increase unionisation


How do we pay for this?

● Tax resources, not labour

● Tax computer bits

● Tax businesses on their externalities

● Restrict trade to protect jobs, if necessary

● Let the dead pay


We need other changes too

Current Economic

system

Sustainablesystem

BetterEconomic

system

● A large, complex and unstable financial system

● Corporate power● The belief that

economies need to grow

● An energy transition● A food revolution to

feed 8-9bn people

One that livesin harmony withnature

One where people haveincomes and purpose, withless inequality


And we need political change

The pursuit of growth, so essential after WW2, is the source of our current problems

- resource use, pollution and climate change

- inequality and unemployment

More growth will make these problems worse

Green business and the circular economy buy time

The market cannot reduce emissions or inequality

We need effective government and functioning global institutions

That means political change, to elect people with understanding and vision

Documents

Graeme Maxton Barcelona, December 2015 · 100 200 300 400 500 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 CO2 in atmosphere (←scale) ppm deg C Temperature rise (scale →) 0.9 m Sea level rise (scale