Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the United States Agriculture Industry

Prepared for the United States Department of Agriculture

Prepared by D & K Consulting PartnersDavid Groner & Keith Bolden

March 20, 2007

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION – What is Global Warming?.................................................................1

POTENTIAL U.S. IMPACTS…………………………………………………………….1

ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL WARMING……………………………………………. 2 – 3

THE POLITICAL DEBATE……………………………………………………………...4

CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………………4

FOOTNOTES……………………………………………………………………………..4

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE EFFECTS ON U.S. AGRICULTURE

INTRODUCTION

Scientists have been researching the effects of atmospheric gases that might cause climate changes on a global scale. This effect is often referred to as the greenhouse effect. The direct effect is an increase in temperature which causes damage to the agriculture of the United States and the worldi. Through the 1900’s, the debate was two-sided and fairly even. In the 20th Century, due to compelling evidence, the argument has leaned more towards the side of global warming causing a potential problem for the U.S. agriculture. ii

Due to the increasing concerns of both public and political groups, it will be important for the USDA to be aware and prepared when dealing with the issue of rising carbon dioxide levels. Rising carbon dioxide levels are linked to the use of fossil fuels and exploitation of the land.

POTENTIAL U.S. IMPACTS

Climate change is a global issue, and the Kyoto Protocol entered into force February 16, 2005, requiring all signatory nations follow a mandatory reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.iii The United States, being a major contributor to global warming at 21 percent of all emissions, has not signed into the Kyoto Protocol. The U.S. and Australia are the only two countries that have declined the Kyoto Protocol, and it is beginning to have political impacts on the U.S.iv

The rise of CO2 fertilization has caused a global increase in temperatures. These increases in temperature have impacted the U.S. Agriculture in positive and negative ways. They estimate that a five degree temperature rise -projected to occur in the next 30-50 years at current rates of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere - could result in $15 billion to $30 billion in annual damage to American crops.v

i Canada.com January 31, 2007ii epa.gov 1990 through 2004iii USDA Economic Research Service December 18th 2000iv USDA Economic Research Service December 18th 2000v LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY May 2, 2006USDA Agriculture Report Page 1

The above time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1856 to 2001. Data from Jones et al., 1998; and from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (www.cru.uea.ac.uk; compilation by Phil Jones).

Vehicles in the U.S. contribute almost a quarter of the annual emissions of CO2. These CO2 emissions enter the atmosphere; the more gasoline burned, the more CO2 released.

ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

As you see from the graph, the compact car is the most environmentally friendly vehicle, averaging 24 miles per gallon and 20 pounds of CO2 per gallon.vi The rest of the statistics are as follows:

In addition to transportation, there are two other elements to global warming that should be considered, human contributions and the different types of U.S. agriculture affected by global warming.

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Vehicle MPG Pounds of CO2 per gallonCompact Car 24 20Full Size Car 16 20Truck-Van 13 21Bus 8 22

When considering the human contributions to global warming, there are five in particular that should be explored in further detail, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, CFC’s, Nitrous Oxide, and other. The highest contribution is Carbon Dioxide, which is the air that we breathe back out after taking in Oxygen. The next contribution is Methane, which is human sewage waste. A representation of the human contribution in detail is as follows:

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The effects of global warming can be beneficial to some forms of U.S. agriculture and harmful to others. In particular, wheat and non-grains are benefiting from global warming while other grains and livestock are being harmed by global warming effects. The effects in detail are listed below:

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Human Contributions to the Greenhouse Effect

49%

18%

14%

13%6%

Carbon Dioxide Methane CFCs Other Nitrous Oxide

THE POLITICAL DEBATE

In President George W. Bush’s state of the union address, he stated that climate change is a serious challenge. He proposed a 20 percent reduction in gasoline consumption over the next 10 years. The Kyoto Protocol declared a 6 percent cut in all emissions around the world by 2012. Environmentalists feel that Bush’s proposal will have little effect on environmental threats. The big push in the democratic led congress is to instigate mandatory caps on emissions. One of the biggest pushes by environmental groups is the human-caused effects on global warming, and they carry a heavy agenda addressing the human issue.

CONCLUSION

Although there have been political indifferences, scientists have made great strides towards addressing the issues of global warming. It is a general conclusion that the increase of Carbon Dioxide is changing agriculture around the world. The two-sided

debate is now more one-sided with undisputed evidence supporting the dangers of global warming on U.S. agriculture. It will be important for the USDA to maintain current information and statistics on the effects of global warming on U.S. agriculture. There will be a swing on the political agenda towards global warming now that there is a democratic led congress. The most accurate information is coming from the scientists, and the activists groups will be pushing heavily towards the

human effects. Due to the influence of these two groups, interpreting with an open mind and without bias will be important, enabling the USDA to remain focused on the needs of agriculture in the U.S. and provide for future generations.

vi Epa.gov Emission Facts / epa.gov Green vehicle Guide / suv.org info link

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