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Global Economic Briefing:Merchandise Trade
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 18, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 18, 2020 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.yardeni.com
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World Exports 1-2World Exports & Production 3-4World Exports & Real Exports & Imports 5World Exports & Industrial Production 6World Exports & International Reserves 7World Exports & Commodity Prices 8World Exports: G7 vs ROW 9G7 Exports 10G6 Exports 11Asian Exports 12Latin American Exports 13Eastern European Exports 14Exports & Imports 15Exports 16-21
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.1
3.1
6.1
9.1
12.115.118.121.124.1
.1
3.1
6.1
9.1
12.115.118.121.124.1
Jul WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE(trillions dollars, sa, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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Figure 1.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140150
30
40
50
60
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90
100
110
120
130
140150
Sep
WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME)(2000=100, sa, ratio scale)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 2.
World Exports
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260
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130
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150
4
6
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10
12
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20
22
Jul
Sep
WORLD EXPORTS VALUE & VOLUME
Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, nsa, annualized)
Volume of World Exports (CPB)(2005=100, sa)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and International Monetary Fund.
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Figure 3.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jul Sep
WORLD EXPORTS(yearly percent change)
Value of World Exports (IMF) (0.4)Volume of World Exports (CPB) (-1.0)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and International Monetary Fund.
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Figure 4.
World Exports
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2480
85
90
95
100
105
110
60
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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Sep
Oct
WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION
Volume of World Exports (CPB)(2010=100, sa)
OECD Total 34 Countries*Production(2015=100)
* Includes OECD Total: All 34 member countries of OECD: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 5.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
Sep
WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Volume of World Exports (CPB) (Sep=-1.0)OECD Total 34 Countries*Production (Oct=-2.6)
* Includes OECD Total: All 34 member countries of OECD: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 6.
World Exports & Production
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2460
70
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130
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
WORLD PRODUCTION & EXPORTS(ratio scale, sa) Sep
World Production & Exports
Export Volume(2010=100, sa)
Production(2005=100)
Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 7.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
WORLD PRODUCTION & EXPORTS(yearly percent change)
Sep
Export Volume (Sep=-1.0)Production (Sep=-1.9)
Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020.
World Production & Exports
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 8.
World Exports & Production
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Nov
Oct
ISM MANUFACTURING & WORLD TRADE
ISM Manufacturing:New Exports Orders + Imports(sa) (112.9)
US Real MerchandiseExports + Imports (yearly percent change) (0.6)
Source: Institute of Supply Management and Census Bureau.
Figure 9.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Nov
Sep
ISM MANUFACTURING & WORLD TRADE
ISM Manufacturing:New Exports Orders + Imports(sa) (112.9)
World Exports Volume(yearly percent change) (-1.0)
Source: Institute of Supply Management and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
Figure 10.
World Exports & Real Exports & Imports
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2460
65
70
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90
95
100
105
110
115
20
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100
110
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140
150
SepNov
WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME & REAL EXPORTS & IMPORTS(2000=100, sa, ratio scale)
World Exports: Volume(2000=100, sa)
US Industrial Production(2012=100, sa)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 11.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep
WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME) & US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
World Exports (Volume) (Sep=-1.0)US Industrial Production (Nov=-5.5)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 12.
World Exports & Industrial Production
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
Sep
WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME(yearly percent change)
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 13.
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
JulOct
NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & WORLD EXPORTS(yearly percent change)
Value of World Exports* (3.5)
Non-GoldInternational Reserves (5.8)
* Yearly percent change in 12-month average.Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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Figure 14.
World Exports & International Reserves
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
12/17
JulINDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)
Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 15.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240
50
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100
110
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130
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12/17
Sep
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)
Volume of World Exports(2005=100, sa)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
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Figure 16.
World Exports & Commodity Prices
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Oct
Jul
WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD(trillion dollars, annualized)
Rest of World(nsa)
G7(sa)
Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 17.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jul
Jul
WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD(percent of total world exports using 12-month averages)
Rest of World
G7
Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
World Exports: G7 vs ROW
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Oct
G7 EXPORTS(trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 19.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Oct
Oct
EXPORTS: G6 vs US(billion dollars, saar)
G6
US
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 20.
G7 Exports
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Figure 23.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Oct
EXPORTS: G6(billion dollars, saar)
Germany
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Oct
UK
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
OctFrance
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
OctCanada
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Oct
Italy
Source: Haver Analytics.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
NovJapan
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G6 Exports
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Figure 24.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200NovEXPORTS: ASIAN EMs
(billion dollars, saar)
China
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
150
250
350
450
550
NovSingapore
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
Nov
India
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NovSouth Korea
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Nov
Indonesia
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2290
130
170
210
250
290
330
370Nov
Taiwan
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
Oct
Malaysia
Source: Haver Analytics.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240
80
120
160
200
240
280
Oct
Thailand
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Asian Exports
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Figure 25.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct
EXPORTS: LATIN AMERICAN EMs(billion dollars, saar)
Argentina
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Oct
Colombia
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
NovBrazil
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22140
190
240
290
340
390
440
490Oct
Mexico
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NovChile
Source: Haver Analytics.
Latin American Exports
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Figure 26.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Oct
CzechRepublic
EXPORTS: EASTERN EUROPEAN EMs(billion dollars, saar)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Oct
Romania
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
40
60
80
100
120
140Sep
Hungary
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
150
250
350
450
550
650
Oct
Russia
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320Oct
Poland
Source: Haver Analytics.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
OctUkraine
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Eastern European Exports
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
0
50
100
-50
0
50
100
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE*(yearly percent change using dollar values)
Imports (4.5)
Exports (21.1)
* Excluding Hong Kong.Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 27.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Oct
US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS(yearly percent change)
Total
Imports
Exports
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 28.
Exports & Imports
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
Nov
OctMERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions of US dollars, saar)
Brazil (Nov=210.3)Mexico (Oct=472.3)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 29.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions US dollars, saar)
India (Nov=294.1)Indonesia (Nov=181.0)Malaysia (Oct=246.3)Thailand (Oct=224.9)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 30.
Exports
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions US dollars, saar)
South Korea (Nov=533.2)Singapore (Nov=365.0)
Taiwan (Nov=347.9)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 31.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
OctOct
Germany (Oct=1481.1)US (Oct=1514.0)
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billion dollars, saar)
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 32.
Exports
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202260
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Oct
GERMANY: MANUFACTURING ORDERS vs. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2015=100)
Manufacturing OrdersManufacturing Production
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
400
600
800
1000
200
400
600
800
1000
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Nov
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billion dollars, saar)
UK (Oct=401.5)
France (Oct=548.7)Canada (Oct=421.8)
Italy (Oct=541.9)Japan (Nov=689.8)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 34.
Exports
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500
900
1300
1700
2100
2500
2900
3300
500
900
1300
1700
2100
2500
2900
3300
Nov
Nov
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Total
Imports (2167.9)Exports (2961.7)
* Excluding Hong Kong.Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
Nov
OctMERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions of US dollars, saar)
Brazil (Nov=210.3)Mexico (Oct=472.3)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 36.
Exports
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions US dollars, saar)
India (Nov=294.1)Indonesia (Nov=181.0)Malaysia (Oct=246.3)Thailand (Oct=224.9)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(billions US dollars, saar)
South Korea (Nov=533.2)Singapore (Nov=365.0)
Taiwan (Nov=347.9)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 38.
Exports
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***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: CHINAEXPTOGLOBAL1
Invalid calculation element [EU]
12-18-2020 - 00:33:22
Figure 39.
Exports
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