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Market Briefing:Commodity Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 29, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Commodity Price Indexes 1-2Energy 3-4Basic Metals 5Lumber 6Precious Metals 7-8Agriculture 9-10Misc: CRB Index 11-12Misc: Energy 13-14Misc: Agriculture 15Misc: Precious Metals 16Misc: Grains 17-18
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
300
400
500
600
200
300
400
500
600
6/28
CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES*(1967=100)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
* Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter,soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar.
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Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
300
400
500
600
700
200
300
400
500
600
700
6/28
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 2.
Commodity Price Indexes
Page 1 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
6/28
6/28
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES(1967=100)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index (514.0)Metals Component* (925.0)
* Includes scrap copper, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
175
275
375
475
575
675
75
175
275
375
475
575
675
6/28
6/29
COMMODITY PRICES(1967=100)
CRB Price Indexes
CRB FuturesCRB Raw Industrials Spot
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Commodity Price Indexes
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201910
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
6/28
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)
Price (77.85)
200-day moving average* Nearby futures price.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 5.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.3
.9
1.5
2.1
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.5
.3
.9
1.5
2.1
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.5
6/29
GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per gallon)
Price (2.15)
* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.
200-day moving average
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Figure 6.
Energy
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.2
.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
.2
.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
6/29
HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollar per gallon)
Price (2.21)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 7.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
6/29
NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per MMBTU)
Price (2.92)
* Nearby contract.200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 8.
Energy
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
6/28
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS*(daily, 1967=100)
200-day moving average* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 9.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
6/29
COPPER FUTURES PRICE*(cents per pound)
Price (295)
200-day moving average* Nearby futures contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 10.
Basic Metals
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
6/29
RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE*($/1000 board ft)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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Figure 11.
Lumber
Page 6 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019225
400
575
750
925
1100
1275
1450
1625
1800
1975
225
400
575
750
925
1100
1275
1450
1625
1800
1975
D A
6/28
GOLD CASH PRICE(dollars per troy ounce)
Price (1251.55)
200-day moving averageD = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro.A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy.Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 12.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
6/29
SILVER CASH PRICE(dollars per troy ounce)
Price (16.15)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 13.
Precious Metals
Page 7 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
6/29
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)
Price (852.40)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 14.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
6/26
PALLADIUM CASH PRICE($/troy oz)
Price (944.00)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 15.
Precious Metals
Page 8 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
6/29
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
Price (858.50)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 16.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
6/29
CORN FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
Price (350.25)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 17.
Agriculture
Page 9 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
6/29
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
Price (497.50)
200-day moving average* Nearby contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
6/29
COTTON FUTURES PRICE*($/pound)
Price (0.85)
Source: Haver Analytics.* Nearby contract.
200-day moving average
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Figure 19.
Agriculture
Page 10 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*& RECESSIONS(1967=100, daily)
6/28
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Weekly from 1962 to 1982, daily thereafter.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 20.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
300
400
500
600
700
200
300
400
500
600
700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100 ratio scale)
6/28
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 21.
Misc: CRB Index
Page 11 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
105011501250
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
105011501250
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS*(1967=100, ratio scale)
6/28
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 22.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2270
170
270
370
470
570
670
70
170
270
370
470
570
670
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale)
6/28
* Weekly from 1951 to 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin,rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 23.
Misc: CRB Index
Page 12 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201910
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
6/28
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)
* Nearby futures price.Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
6/28
6/28
COMMODITY PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OIL
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**(dollars per barrel)
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 25.
Misc: Energy
Page 13 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
6/29
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES*(dollars per gallon)
Heating Oil (2.21)Gasoline (2.15)
* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 26.
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
0
50
100
150
6/28
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel)
* Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics.
yard
eni.
com
Figure 27.
Misc: Energy
Page 14 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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Figure 28.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
6/29
CORN FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
6/29
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400
200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400
6/29
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
6/29
COTTON FUTURES PRICE*($/pound)
200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.* Nearby contract, closing price.
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Misc: Agriculture
Page 15 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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Figure 29.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020400
575
750
925
1100
1275
1450
1625
1800
1975
400
575
750
925
1100
1275
1450
1625
1800
1975
6/29
GOLD FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020481216202428323640444852
48
1216202428323640444852
6/29
SILVER FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
6/29
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
6/26
PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE($/troy oz)
200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.* Nearby contract.
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Misc: Precious Metals
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77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21100
200
300
400
500
600
700
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
6/29
S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX(January 5, 1970=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
6/29
S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX(December 31, 1969=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 31.
Misc: Grains
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
6/29
S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX(December 31, 1969=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 32.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
6/29
S&P GSCI CORN INDEX(December 31 1969=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 33.
Misc: Grains
Page 18 / June 29, 2018 / Commodity Prices www.yardeni.com
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