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Market Briefing:Currencies
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 24, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Trade-Weighted Dollar 1Euro & Pound 2Swiss Franc & Krona 3Yen & Won 4Canadian & Australian Dollars 5Real & Peso 6Rupee & Rupiah 7Ringitt & Yuan 8Baht & Pesos 9Lira & Ruble 10Peso 11Rand & Hryvnia 12Misc. Exchange Rates 13-14Large Speculators in Currencies 15
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2085
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
6/22
JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*(2000=100, daily)
Trade-WeightedDollar (119.45)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia,Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area.Source: JP Morgan.
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Figure 1.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2160
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
6/15
6/15
FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES(daily)
Major*(3/73=100)
Broad**(1/97=100)
* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland,United Kingdom,
** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia,Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 2.
Trade-Weighted Dollar
Page 1 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
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99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.70
.85
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
1.75
.70
.85
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
1.75
QEDNIRP QEE
6/22
EUROZONE: US$/EURO
D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014).QE (1/22/15). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16).
200-day moving average
Euro (1.16)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
6/22
UK: US$/POUND
Pound (1.33)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Euro & Pound
Page 2 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
6/22
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/$(inverted scale)
Swiss Franc (0.99)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1911.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
11.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
6/22
SWEDEN: KRONA/$(inverted scale)
Krona (8.86)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 6.
Swiss Franc & Krona
Page 3 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19160
140
120
100
80
60
160
140
120
100
80
60
Z A
QQE QQEE NIRP
YC
6/22
JAPAN:YEN/US$(inverted scale)
Yen (109.97)
200-day moving averageNote: Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing.QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. NIRP = Negative interest rate policy. YC = Yield curve targeting.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
6/21
SOUTH KOREA: WON/US$(inverted scale)
Won (1112.80)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
Yen & Won
Page 4 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
6/22
CANADA: C$/US$(inverted scale)
Canadian Dollar (1.33)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
6/22
AUSTRALIA: A$/US$(inverted scale)
Australian Dollar (1.35)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
Canadian & Australian Dollars
Page 5 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
6/22
BRAZIL: REAL/US$(inverted scale)
Real (3.77)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
6/21
MEXICO: EXCHANGE RATE(dollars per peso)
Peso (0.05)
200-day moving averageSource: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Real & Peso
Page 6 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
65
55
45
35
25
75
65
55
45
35
25
6/22
INDIA: RUPEE/$(inverted scale)
Rupee (67.84)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920000
15000
10000
5000
0
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
6/22
INDONESIA: RUPIA/$(inverted scale)
Rupia (14080.00)
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 14.
Rupee & Rupiah
Page 7 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
6/22
MALAYSIA: RINGGIT/$(inverted scale)
Ringgit (4.00)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
8.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
6/22
CHINA: YUAN/US$(inverted scale)
Yuan (6.50)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Ringitt & Yuan
Page 8 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
6/22
THAILAND: BAHT/$(inverted scale)
Baht (32.93)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
6/22
PHILIPPINES: PESOS/$(inverted scale)
Pesos (53.29)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 18.
Baht & Pesos
Page 9 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.0
-.5
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.0
-.5
6/21
TURKEY: LIRA/$(inverted scale)
Lira (4.74)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 19.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1990
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
6/21
RUSSIA: RUBLE/$(inverted scale)
Ruble (63.74)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 20.
Lira & Ruble
Page 10 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6/22
ARGENTINA: PESO/$ (inverted scale)
Peso (27.15)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 21.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
6/22
CHILE: PESO/$)(inverted scale)
Peso (637.87)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 22.
Peso
Page 11 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1917.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
.0
6/21
SOUTH AFRICA: RAND/$(inverted scale)
Rand (13.63)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 23.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
6/25
UKRAINE: HRYVNIA/$(inverted scale)
Hryvnia (2623.89)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 24.
Rand & Hryvnia
Page 12 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
AQQE QQEE NIRP
YC
6/22
JAPAN: US$/100YEN(daily)
Yen (0.91)
Note: A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE.NIRP = negative interest rates. YC = Yield curve targeting.
200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
6/22
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES(inverted scale)
Canada(C$/US$) (1.3)
Australia(A$/US$) (1.3)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Misc. Exchange Rates
Page 13 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
6/22
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/EURO
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
Misc. Exchange Rates
Page 14 / June 24, 2018 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 28.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50000
-30000
-10000
10000
30000
50000
70000
90000
6/19
US DOLLAR INDEX(US dollar index x $1,000)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-200000
-175000
-150000
-125000
-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
6/19
YEN
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
6/19
EURO(contracts of 125,000 Euros)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
6/19
CANADIAN DOLLAR(contracts of 100,000 Canadian Dollars)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-150000
-125000
-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
6/19
POUND STERLING(contracts of 62,500 Pound Sterling)
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
6/19
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR(contracts of 100,000 Australian Dollars)
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Large Speculators in Currencies
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