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Weather • Climate • Water 1
GFCS: Status of Implementation
Filipe Lúcio
Director, Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS)
World Meteorological Organization
www.gfcs-climate.org/
Concern
Energy
Vision
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and
adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of
science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and
practice on the global, regional and national scale
Weather • Climate • Water 4
GFCS Pillars
Essential
Full
Advanced
Less than
Basic
Basic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Infrastrucal Capacity Category
# o
f C
ou
ntr
ies/
Te
rrit
ori
es
Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.
Global
Regional
National
Weather • Climate • Water 5
What are Climate Services?
• The accumulation of knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system;
• The development and delivery of a range of "products" and
advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems
• Historical climate data sets • Climate monitoring • Climate watches • Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions • Climate change projections
• The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.
A Climate service: Providing climate information in a way that assists decision making by individuals and organizations. A service requires appropriate engagement along with an effective access mechanism and must respond to user needs.
Weather • Climate • Water 6
Seamless hydrometeorological and climate
services
Simplified Schematic: Hazard / Risk Assessment (statistical and forward looking)
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
Decisions
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Assets:
population density
agricultural land
urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
etc
Number of
lives at risk
$ at risk
Destruction of
buildings and
infrastructure
Reduction in crop
yields
Business
interruption
etc
Need for historical and real
time hazard data
meteorological,
hydrological and climate
forecasts and trend
analysis
Need for historical loss
and damage data,
Development and
engineering information
Policy and
planning
Disaster Risk
Financing
EWS
Sectoral Risk
Managment
Building GFCS through partnerships
Step 1: National Baseline Capacity Assessment for Development of Climate Services
Step 2: National Consultation on Climate Services, Development of NHMS Action Plan
Step 3: Participatory Inter-sectoral Establishment of a National Framework for Climate Services
Step 4: National Action Plan Endorsement (High level)
Step 5: Launch of National Framework for Climate Services, Operational implementation of priority activities, rigorous M&E
Systematic approach for GFCS implementation at national level
Key components of National Action
Plans • Component 1: The generation of high quality hydro
meteorological information and co-production of climate services with sectorial technical experts (first level users) across national climate sensitive sectors to deliver user-tailored climate services
• Component 2: Enabling Communication and appropriate access to data and climate services at national level by final users
• Component 3: Strengthening the capacity of users to understand and act on received climate services, as well as provide feedback on the quality/relevance of services received
• Component 4: Defining an appropriate Governance framework for National Climate Services (the NFCS) ensuring linkages with adaptation efforts underway.
Key functions of National Frameworks
for Climate Services
• Serve as a Platform for institutional coordination among stakeholders at national and sub-national level, needed to tailor climate information to sectorial needs
• Provide a Legal Framework that clarifies institutional mandates for the generation, tailoring, communication, use and evaluation of climate services
• Provide a framework to orchestrate the work among key national institutions in charge of climate (e.g., NMHSs, Hydrology Departments, National Bureaus of Climate Change, Disaster Management Platforms, etc.) to enable a functional chain for linking climate knowledge with action on the ground so as to maximize the application of weather and climate forecasting products
• Raise climate issues to the appropriate political levels
Key functions of National Frameworks
for Climate Services
• Provide a vehicle for scientific coordination to synthesize the state of the climate at national level, and distill climate knowledge outputs for policy makers’ action founded on scientific evidence
• Provide a Medium for enhancing the contribution of climate science to the development of National Adaptation Plans, and further clarify what is being adapted to across all the climate-sensitive sectors of the national economy
• Provide an Operational bridge between climate research actors and institutions in charge of operational climate services delivery at national level, to increase collaborative climate research towards more salient and user-driven climate research outputs
• An opportunity to Bridge the gap between available climate science and user needs at national, sub-national and local levels.
Progress of GFCS Implementation in the
Sahel
Niger Burkina Faso Mali Senegal Chad Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire
NAP developed & Endorsed on
December 2015, 22-23
NAP developed & Endorsed on April
2016, 14-15
NAPdeveloped & Endorsed on April
2016, 28-29
NAP developed, & Endorsed on May
2016, 19
NAP developed, & Endorsed on
October 2016, 4
NAP developed & pre-Endorsed on
October 2016, 6-7
NAP developed & pre-Endorsed on July 2016, 19-21
CS needs of 6 priority sectors
identified
CS needs of 6 priority sectors
identified
CS needs of 6 priority sectors identified
CS needs of 7 priority sectors
identified
CS needs of 6 priority sectors
identified
CS needs of 6 priority sectors
identified
CS needs of 6 priority sectors
identified
Taskforce on CS established
Inter-agency UN Taskforce on CS
being established
Inter-agency UN Taskforce on CS
proposed
Inter-agency UN Taskforce on CS
proposed
Exiting DRR Working Group incorporated
Climate Service
Set up of Inter-agency UN
Taskforce on CS to be explored
Set up of Inter-agency UN
Taskforce on CS to be explored
NFCS Launch by end 2016 with
decree signature
NFCS Launch by end 2016 with decree
signature
NFCS Launch by end 2016
Decree for NFCS creation drafted
NFCS Launch by end 2016 with decree
signature
Decree for NFCS creation in draft
NFCS Launch by end 2016
Decree for NFCS creation drafted
NFCS Launch by end 2016
Decree for NFCS creation drafted
Progress of GFCS Implementation in the
Southern Africa
Madagascar Malawi South Africa Tanzania
National Consultation held in June 2015
National Consultation held June 2014
National Consultation held August 2013
National Consultation held May 2014
Strategic Plan for 2016-2019 Developed
In the process of development of Action Plan
and National Framework
National Action Plan near Completion
NFCS established by Decree in June 2016
NFCS Launch by end 2016 with decree signature
NFCS developed & to be launched early 2017
NFCS endorsed by TANDREC in October
Implementation Update: Tanzania &
Malawi
• GFCS Adaptation Program in Africa (2014 – 2016)
• Total budget of USD 10m, funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Tanzania and Malawi)
• Aim: increase the resilience of people most vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate-related hazards
• Target Sectors: Agriculture & Food Security, Health, DRR
• Multi-agency research to operations program: CCAFS, CICERO, CMI, IFRC, WFP, WHO & WMO (lead agency).
• First time these agencies work together to deliver Climate Services –much learning on how to achieve coordinated end-to-end climate services delivery. Up Scaling now remains
Technical support through deployments
• Establishment of GFCS Coordination Office in Dakar – Roving expert to support country level implementation
• Deployment of experts at regional level – Two experts deployed at ICPAC services
– One expert deployed at ACMAD
• Deployment of experts at national level – Expert deployed in Niger, Burkina Faso
– Senegal, Tanzania and Malawi - Next
The User Interface Platform
What is needed?
SO WE’RE
ABOUT TO START A NEW
PARADIGM. WE CALL IT
“CLIMATE SERVICE”
WHAT DOES
THAT MEAN?
SORRY, I’M NOT
PREPARED FOR
IN-DEPTH
QUESTIONS
Needs Providers Ability Users
PROVIDER USER
APPROPRIATEAPPLICATION
UNDERSTANDING
ACCESS
Who is the issuer?
What are the options?
How should they be
Presented?
The Process of Co-producing decision-
relevant climate information
Use of climate information for decision-
making requires bringing together
organisations which in many cases
have little or no experience of working
together and do not have a well-
established understanding of each
other’s ways of working.
Weather • Climate • Water 19
Decision-making across timescales
• Begin planning and
monitoring of forecasts
• Update contingency plans
• Sensitize communities
• Enable early-warning
systems
• Continue monitoring
• Adjust plans
• Warn communities
• Local preparation activities
• Activate response
• Instruction to
communities to
evacuate, if needed
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get
Mark Twain
New trial user products:
onset prediction and monitoring
Probability of early
‘onset’
Probability of
late ‘onset’
CSRP monitoring
product: Observed
time of ‘onset‘ (in
days difference from
long-term average
Early onset
predicted most
likely
Early onset
occurred
Assessment over retrospective cases
indicates forecast can discriminate
early/late onset in ~70% of cases
(Tanzania/Kenya)
Onset forecasts being trialled at
regional centres in East, West and
southern Africa
Prediction is based
on local time of
arrival of 20% of
long-term seasonal
average
Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season
2011 – 1 month lead time prediction
Data or information?
Lessons Learned from activities in Africa
1. Effective delivery of climate service interventions requires joint implementation, a common Masterplan (i.e., the National Action Plans)
2. Coordination vaccuum: Incoherence in donor funding / multiplicity of duplicate initiatives, most important barrier to GCFS implementation at regional and national levels Information, 1st step in Coordination > GFCS information go-to place
‘Spaces for coordination’ should be set up at the country/regional levels, ensuring all relevant stakeholders are engaged and brought together around a common agenda on Climate services
3. Give the Time for Change: Results at large scale & institutional change will take time
– Target: horizon 2020 for frameworks to be self-sustaining
Lessons Learned from activities in Africa
1. To Achieve a Transformative Agenda > Donor coordination, Common Climate Services Delivery Framework fundamental – vital role of GFCS PAC to bring together agencies and funding streams from
global to national levels
– the Interagency taskforce, space for coordination on CS at national level
2. Investing in the right capacity at the right place will make the difference at this inception phase of the GFCS in Africa -NORCAP mechanism; additional deployments for: 1. Additional Gap Bridgers and Dot Connectors needed
2. Support to develop/implement communication strategy on CSs
3. Support to understand factors of user uptake of CSs @local level
3. Ensure buy-in of all stakeholders into the National Action Planning Process, Common Delivery Plan on Climate Services
4. Empower the user interface platforms, key to sustainable delivery of user-tailored services (e.g., the GTPs)
Thank you for your attention
www.wmo.int/gfcs
