Getting Blood From a Stone: Reducing Credit Card ...asq.org/...from-a-stone-reducing-credit-cart-delinquency-rates.pdf · Getting Blood From a Stone: Reducing Credit Card ... CTQ

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Getting Blood From a Stone: Reducing Credit Card

Delinquency Rates

Roger HoerlGeneral Electric R&D

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Outline

• Why the big deal over the bottom line?• How Six Sigma addresses the bottom line• A Six Sigma project in collections• Why we are missing this opportunity, and

what can be done about it• Summary

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Why the Big Deal Over the Bottom Line?• Despite what Deming preached, the vast majority of

business leaders believe that they are in business to make money (societal and legal expectation)

• Even Deming pointed out that a company needed to make money to fulfill its mission

• Many improvement initiatives have been viewed as “feel good” cultural movements that are disconnected from, or even oppose, making money

• To be taken seriously in business circles today we have to clearly and convincingly demonstrate that our recommended approach directly improves the bottom line (“Put up or shut up”)

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How Six Sigma Addresses the Bottom Line

In good companies:

• Projects are selected based on estimated financial benefits (among other things)

• Financial results are required for the BB or MBB to become certified

• Both estimated and actual financial benefits are determined by the finance department

• Benefits must actually show up on the bottom line to be counted (no “soft” savings)

• The financial numbers are audited by independent parties

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Collections Project

• Majority of work done by GE Card Services (CS) Black Belt team

• DOE led by GE Corporate Audit Staff (CAS)

• Following pages from CAS project summary (confidential details deleted)

• Key challenge – communicating statistical concepts to financial leadership

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CS - IntroductionUnderstanding The Need ...

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

<$25M

$25-50M

$50-100M

$100M<

19921995

Household Income

Income level

“Personal Bankruptcy is at an all-time high” - Washington Post, 12/08/96

Consumer Credit

“The expansion of credit has led to all but the richestAmericans spending a greater share of their household income on consumer credit” - Washington Post, 12/08/96

Source: Federal Reserve

GE Capital Card Services is the world’s largest providerof Private Label Credit Cards (PLCCs) with over $15B inreceivables and over 70 million cardholders.

CS Vision:

“To be the most efficient, consistent, innovative, and highestvalue provider of retail financial services and consumer financialservices in the world”

Segment Key AccountsCS operates in every major retail segment:

»Department Macy’s, Wards, Disney»Home Improvement Home Depot, Lowe’s»Commercial Payless, Sams»Oil & Gas Exxon, Imperial Oil»Big Ticket Levitz, The Wiz

In Order To Understand The Issue

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Note: Some sensitive data have been deleted Problem StatementStep 1Understanding The Process ...

With consumer delinquency on the rise, CS needs to adjust it’s business processes to increase the effectiveness and timeliness of collections. The general business process is as follows:

New CardApplicationNew CardApplication

SalesProcessing

SalesProcessing BillingBilling Payment

ProcessingPayment

ProcessingCust Svc

/ CollectionsCust Svc

/ CollectionsCard

ProductionCard

ProductionMarketingMarketing

CS has the ability tocontrol this

area

DialerCollections

ManualCollections

SkipTracing

Writeoffs

$ XX MM in annual writeoffs$ XXX MM in writeoffs YTDDialer, Manual, & Call Back Center Collections Skip Tracing

Customer will not payBankruptcyPotential legal

No contact informationInvalid contact information

Impact:Reason:

Call Back Center

Skip tracing is the process of locating customer contact information when the customer has become delinquent in making creditcard payments.

Problem StatementScope: Focus on core private label cardsCTQ: Timeliness & Effectiveness of CollectionsDefect: Non-callable number on skip accountOpportunity: Each Skip AccountCustomer: CS clients purchasing credit card services Cost Savings: Estimated $X MM annually

Since skip tracing costs are mostly paid by the client and collection writeoffs are shared, an effort to minimize tracing loss is required. Skip tracing associates need to prioritize which skip tracing tools are the most cost efficient and most effective.

To Effect Timeliness of Collected Dollars

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Note: Some sensitive data have been deleted CTQ TreeDrilling Down On The Process ...

Need to identify root causes that can be controlled to yield improvement. Using a CTQ tree, one can start with what is important to the client and drill down to the sub-processes that needed to be changed\adjusted. The shaded boxes indicate the branches ofthe tree that are traversed for this problem.

In Order To Set Initial Scope

New CardApplicationNew CardApplication

SalesProcessing

SalesProcessing BillingBilling Payment

ProcessingPayment

ProcessingCust Svc

/ CollectionsCust Svc

/ CollectionsCard

ProductionCard

ProductionMarketingMarketingBusinessProcess

• Delinquency at highest level• 2nd highest collection CTQ• XX% of clients dissatisfiedTimeliness &

Effectiveness of Collections

Dialer Manual Call Back Center Skip Tracing

• Teams in place• Training Programs• Hired Consultants • Low Controllability

• Highest Opportunity• Loss Prevention• Controllable

Volume : XX MMAccts/month


CTQ

Level 1Process



Skip Tracing Time Meetings Dialer Time BreaksLevel 2Work Allocation

XX% XX% XX% XX%Time Allocation:

Skill Level Skip Reason Tool Efficiency TechnologyLevel 3Time Allocation Account Type

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Note: Some sensitive data have been deleted CTQ Tree - Root CauseDrilling Down Further...

Having identified the root cause of the CTQ,one now needs some initial data to bettercharacterize the problem.

Timeliness & Effectiveness of

Collections

In Order Isolate Root Causes - Initial Focus- Secondary Focus

Dialer Manual Call Back Center Skip Tracing

Skip Tracing Time Meetings Dialer Time Breaks

XX% XX% XX% XX%

Skill Level Tool Efficiency Technology

• Teams in place• Training Programs• Hired Consultants • Low Controllability

Account Type

CTQ

X1 X3

X2

X5 X7 X8

X6X4

No Phone Wrong Phone

Wrong Area Code

Disconnect Dialer Training

App Process

Number Changed

Restricted Number

20.3%9.1 act/hr$0.01 /act

11.6%7.4 act/hr$0.02 /act

14.2%18.3 act/hr$0.67 /act

35.5%5.3 act/hr$1.00 /act

12.8%8.7 act/hr$0.01 /act

20.8%13.5 act/hr$0.01 /act

6.8%18.8 act/hr$4.50 /act

TestingEffectiveness:Cycle Time:

Cost:

Skip Reason

Time Allocation:

Data





Level 1Process

Level 2Work Allocation

Level 3Time Allocation

Note: Data suspect dueto non-random sampling!

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ApproachHow To Proceed ...

This project is focused around optimizing the results of using skip tools to locate information on skip accounts. The solutionwill identify the best skip tool combination based on tool effectiveness, cost, and cycle time. The business problem can be transformed to a statistical problem of optimization. The statistical tool to perform optimizations is the Design of Experiments(DOE). Once a statistical solution is achieved, the results can be translated to a business solution.

Steps to DOE:

Define

Measure

Analyze

Improve

• Plan the experiment1. Define the business problem2. State the experimental objectives3. Define the input and output variables

• Gather data to characterize the process4. Determine quantity and type of data needed5. Collect data6. Verify data validity

• Setting up the DOE 7. Map data to DOE matrix8. Include all output variables9. Utilize statistical package for analysis, Minitab

• Design based on specifications10. Observe Main Effects plots11. Observe Interaction plots12. Optimize the results13. Transform statistical solution to solve business problem

Note: Used DOE to obtain unbiased data, and data on combinations of tools.

To Solve The Business Problem

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Data CollectionsGathering Information On Tool Combinations

What Can Be Learned?

For each skip account:Data gathered with the following conditions:

• 100 randomly selected skip accounts• 2 due accounts used (30 days past due)• Accounts were not sent to pre-screen

• Every tool was tried on each skip account• Possible and verified numbers were recorded• Root causes were recorded• Characteristics of each account were noted

Analyze Interaction Between ToolsMost Effective Combinations

Understand Effect of Uncontrollable Factors Measure Drivers of Skip Accounts

The following tally sheet will be used to gather more data on how effective certain tool combinations are. The three business groups: XXX.

*Account Number X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7

Ex. CG129472883495 V P V P P

"P" indicates potential phone number, "V" means actually verified asbeing correct.

Gathering Data To Optimize Tool Ranking Using DOE

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Gauge Reliability & ReproducibilitySampling Measured Data ...

Why?

• Prove statistical validity of data collected• Ensure recommendation based on data

has merit• Eliminate the “gut” feel in the improvement

process

How?

• Take 30 random samples from measured data for each business group

• Have a different person evaluate the results for each business group

• Compare measured samples to actual occurrence

• Difference should be < 5%

Client 1 Client 2 Client 3

• 30 samples taken• 100% accuracy for Reason

account sent to skip• 99% accuracy for Tool

evaluation 208/210 correct







Poor Excellent Poor Excellent Poor Excellent

… To Validate Accuracy And Reliability

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EffectivenessPerforming The DOE ...

V = Verified Number CodesTRY ALL TOOLS P = Possible Number Yes or No Below

Account Number X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 SSN PO Return Unlisted Reason73160057623 P P NFD NO#71130021463 V P P NO#70500192607 P NFD NO#71930029567 V V CRNT NO#70510242558 P P P WN71130042360 V V V V DT

Mapping the the data from the tally sheet to the DOE matrix, in order to calculate combination effectiveness.Home Depot Example

DOE Mapping Algorithm100 skip accounts

• Count number of accounts found by tool combination• Equate to effectiveness, since 100 accounts used• Continue until effectiveness for all combinations are calculated

%X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Effectiveness-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 01 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 38-1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 111 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 42-1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 361 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 55-1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 39

X1 found verified numbers for 38 of the 100 accounts, therefore resulting in a 38% effectiveness.X2 found verified numbers for 11 of the 100 accounts, therefore resulting in a 11% effectiveness.X1 and X2 found verified numbers for 42 of the 100 accounts, therefore resulting in a 42% effectiveness rate.

1

2

3

1

2

3

Examples

1 = Tool Used-1 = Tool Not Used

Calculating DOE Output For Analysis

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Minitab Data EntryBuilding The DOE ...

Client 1 ExampleMinitab is used to perform the actual DOE analysis. The data is entered into a Minitab worksheet and then sorted foreffectiveness.

• Sorted by effectiveness, sinceeffectiveness is higher priority tothe CS.

• This data on it’s own is not enoughto fully complete the analysis. What is missing:

• How do the skip tools contribute to the overall effectiveness, cost, and cycle time?………………. Main Effects Plot

• How do the tools interact for the desired combinations?……Interaction Plots

Minitab generates these tool combinations

Setting Up A Minitab Analysis

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Main Effects PlotsPerforming The DOE ...

Client 1 ExampleMain effects plots identify which tools contribute the most to the output. The steeper the slope of the plot for the particular tool the more it effects the output being measured. Therefore the best tools would have steep slopes with regards to effectiveness and relatively flat slopes with regards to cost and cycle time.

Understanding The Major Drivers

Examples

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X6X5X4X3X2X1

1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1

55

50

45

40

35

Effe

ctiv

enes

Main Effects Plot - Data Means for Effectivenes

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X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6

-1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1

500

600

700

800

900

Cos

t

Main Effects Plot - Data Means for Cost

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6

-1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1

30

45

60

75

90

Cyc

le T

ime

Main Effects Plot - Data Means for Cycle Time1 2

2

3 3

3

From the Minitab Menu Bar:

Stat\DOE

\Main Effects Plot

1. X1 has the best effectiveness, but also the highest cost.2. X6 is the cheapest tool, has a medium effectiveness,

but is the slowest.3. X3 is a highly effective tool at a low cost anda low cycle time.

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Interaction PlotsPerforming The DOE ...

Client 1 Example

Interaction plots reveal the relationships between tools relative to the CTQ. The two lines for each pair of tools represent a main effects type plot for the tool listed at the bottom when the tool to the left was excluded (labeled -1) and separately when it was included (labeled 1). The focus is on looking for lack of parallelism between the lines, which indicates interaction (i. e. tool x is effective if tool y was not used, but not very effective once tool y was used.) Tools with parallel lines behave independently of one another.

From the Minitab Menu Bar:

Stat\DOE

\Interactions Plot

X3 is very efficient when X1 is excluded (-1 line is steep), but somewhat less effective when X1 is included ( 1 line is not as steep).This implies significant overlap between X1 and X3.X3 and X5 behave independently ( -1 and 1 lines are parallel), so X5 effectiveness is not impacted by X3.

Examples

1

2

1

2

-1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1

304050

304050

304050

304050

304050X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

X6

-1

1

-1

1

-1

1

-1

1

-1

1

Interaction Plot - Data Means for Effic

1

2

Understanding The Tool Relationships

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Tool Combination SelectionSelecting The Tool Combination ...

Client 1 Example

Considering all tool combinations resulting in greater than 58% effectiveness, a plot of the potential effectiveness resultsare plotted for cost and cycle time. The plot will allow for selection of the most suitable tool combination.

30

60%

58%58%

58%

60%60%

60%61%

61%

61%

61% 62%

I II

III IV

IdealQuadrant

QuadrantI

II

III

IV

Combinations in this quadrant would be ideal. This quadrant consists of both lowest cost and shortest cycle time.

Combinations in this quadrant would be second best,since low cost is still maintained.

Combinations in this quadrant would be third best,since low cycle time is still maintained.

Combinations in this quadrant would be a last resort,as both cost and cycle time are high.

This is the best tool combination considering effectiveness, cost,and cycle time. It yields 60% effectiveness while maintainingsignificantly low costs and an acceptable cycle time.

Resulting Tool Combination (order to be determined):

•X1•X2•X3•X6 This combination results in the best solution for

cost and cycle time, but yields only 58% effectiveness

A tool combination from DOE resulting in > 57% effectiveness

Effectiveness vs Cost & Cycle Time

900$

850

800Cost

(per 100accounts)

750

700

650

600

550

50020 40 50 60 70 80

Cycle Time(hours)

With The Best Overall Value

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Tool RankingRanking The Tools ...

Client 1 Example

Tool ranking will be performed to achieve a 60% effectiveness using the tool combination X1, X2, X3, and X6.Based on the data analyzed thus far, the first tool to be used is the one with the lowest cost, X6. Since X6 hasa 21% effectiveness rate, this implies that 21 accounts would be found using X6 at a cost of $112 and a cycletime of 48 hours.

Number of Verified Total Verified Total TotalTool Accounts Accounts Accounts Cycle Cycle Cost CostX6 100 21 21 48 48 $112.00 $112.00

Next the most effective tool, of those remaining, at the lowest cost is selected, X3. Adding X3 to the tool suitewould promise to find an additional 24 accounts of the remaining 79 (100 minus 21). The cycle time and cost for the 79accounts is 6 hours and $139, respectively

X3 79 24 45 6 54 $139.00 $251.00

Number of Verified Total Verified Total TotalTool Accounts Accounts Accounts Cycle Cycle Cost CostX6 100 21 21 48 48 $112.00 $112.00

Based On Business Drivers

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Tool RankingRanking The Tools ...

Client 1 Example

Next the most effective tool, of the remaining, at the lowest cost is selected, X2. Adding X2 to the suite yields anadditional 3 found accounts of the remaining 55 (100 - 21 - 24). The cycle time and cost for the 55 accounts is 3.2 hoursand $111.00, respectively

X2 55 3 48 3.2 57.2 $111.00 $362.00X3 79 24 45 6 54 $139.00 $251.00

Number of Verified Total Verified Total TotalTool Accounts Accounts Accounts Cycle Cycle Cost Cost

X6 100 21 21 48 48 $112.00 $112.00

Completing the matrix using X1 last for process and business reasons, the completed matrix is as follows:

Number of Verified Total Verified Total Total

X1 52 12 60 9.9 67.1 $280.00 $642.00X2 55 3 48 3.2 57.2 $111.00 $362.00X3 79 24 45 6 54 $139.00 $251.00

Tool Accounts Accounts Accounts Cycle Cycle Cost CostX6 100 21 21 48 48 $112.00 $112.00

39 unfound skip accounts to be sent to other sources

For Best Performance

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ResultsRecommended Tool Ranking :

Client 1

X6 X3 X2 X1 Outsource1 2 3 4 5

Cycle Time (cumulative hours)

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Cost

Efficiency

Cost perAccount

(cumulative cost)

$2.51

$3.62

$6.42

48 54 57.2 67.1

$1.12

70%

60%

50%

Efficiency40% (cumulative efficiency)

30%

20%

10%

0 0%X6 X3 X2 X1

Client 1 Tool Order

Optimizing Effectiveness, Cost & Cycle Time

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Bottom Line Results• Estimated savings across CS - $2MM annually• About half in increased cash, half in reduced

write-offs• Senior management did not believe the estimated

savings, and asked for a 6 month trial• After 6 months, about $1.45MM in actual savings

had been documented - $2.9MM annually• Secondary benefit: analysis determined optimal

number of collectors – resulted in additional hires

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Why Are We Missing This Opportunity?• We tend to have a non-financial culture

– A focus on making money seems “sleazy”– We sometimes value knowledge of the tools more than the

results gained from the tools– Many of us don’t understand finance or accounting

• What can we do about it?– Accept the fact that we have to make money to be successful in

business (its not money that’s “evil”, it’s the love of money!)– Adopt an approach analogous to Six Sigma – the purpose of the

improvement effort is to improve the bottom line– Take the time to justify projects financially– Take the time to verify the financial impact before declaring

success– Learn basic accounting and finance before you ask them to

learn statistics

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Summary• The bottom line of this is, well, the bottom line!

– “Profit is not the explanation, cause, or rationale of business behavior and business decisions, but the test of their validity” (Peter Drucker)

– It is not immoral to make money in business!• Our long term success is dependent on clearly

taking improvement efforts to the bottom line• Part of the reason for the popularity of Six Sigma

is its focus on financial justification and validation of projects

• The benefits of the collections project were not believed by management until they actually hit the bottom line

Documents

Getting Blood From a Stone: Reducing Credit Card ...asq.org/...from-a-stone-reducing-credit-cart-delinquency-rates.pdf · Getting Blood From a Stone: Reducing Credit Card ... CTQ