General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 1 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond 3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY 6 June 2008 Cankarjev Dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia

1 General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana

Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond

3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY

6 June 2008

Cankarjev Dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia



Contribution of Photovoltaics to Contribution of Photovoltaics to the the

2020 Targets and beyond2020 Targets and beyond

oror

The Road aheadThe Road ahead

European PV Technology PlatformEuropean PV Technology PlatformStefan Nowak, Joachim Luther, Wim SinkeStefan Nowak, Joachim Luther, Wim Sinke

PV TP Platform General Assembly, Ljubljana, 6 June 2008PV TP Platform General Assembly, Ljubljana, 6 June 2008







The DebateThe Debate

EC - 10 January 2007 EU-Council - 8 March 2007

G8 - 7 June 2007



The DriversThe Drivers



The DriversThe Drivers

An era of revolutionary transitions

• Step change in energy use

• Supply will struggle to keep pace

• Environmental stresses are increasing



ScenariosScenarios

oilcoalgas

nuclear powerhydroelectricitybiomasse (traditional)biomasse (advanced)

solar power (PV and solar thermal generation)

solar thermal (heat only)other renewablesgeothermal

wind

year2000 2020 2040

200

600

1000

1400

2100

EJ/a

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de



Shell Scenarios 2008Shell Scenarios 2008

• „Scramble“

• „Blueprints“





~ 2500 TWh



Turbulent timesTurbulent times



From the PV TRAC Vision From the PV TRAC Vision reportreport



Electricity pricesElectricity prices

Source: www.eex.com

Low: 35.55€/MWh

High: 74.90€/MWh



What does this mean for PV What does this mean for PV ??

• a tremendous opportunity !

and …

• a tremendous challenge !

• a lot of work !



PV in 2020PV in 2020

2020: just a milestone on the way to 2050!

European electricity demand 2020: 3500 TWh(DG TREN, 2007)

3% of 3500 TWh 105 TWh

Installed PV capacity 100 GW



but: there are other but: there are other metrics !metrics !



and more metrics:and more metrics:



and: PV provides peak and: PV provides peak load !load !

Sou

rce

: M

. B

rau

n, I

SE

T



Is PV on the right road ?Is PV on the right road ?

YES YES !!

???



Market development to 2006Market development to 2006Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in

the IEA PVPS reporting countries – Years 1992-2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ins

talle

d P

V P

ow

er (

MW

)

Grid-connected

Off-grid

• > 40% growth• multibillion $

market

Sou

rce

IE

A

PV

PS



PV module productionPV module production

Sou

rce

IE

A

PV

PS



Solar cell production Solar cell production – Global distribution – Global distribution 20062006

USA : 6,8 %



Relative shares of global Relative shares of global figures EU vs. Japan figures EU vs. Japan (estimates)(estimates)

*2007: estimates

2007*:

Global module production 2.8 GWp

Total installed global capacity ~ 9 GWp

Installed capacity Europe 4.5 GWp



Relevant issues Relevant issues (and barriers)(and barriers)

• Cost / price and competitiveness

• Access to the grid

• Grid integration

• Administrative procedures

• Awareness

• Short term action and long-term impact

• Policy benefits



The benefits of PVThe benefits of PV

• industry and economy (short term)

• energy security and supply (mid term)

• environment (long term)

Understanding the right sequence from a policy perspective



Realising the Realising the opportunitiesopportunitiesrequires sustained action requires sustained action in …in …

Technology Industry

Markets Policy



Required actionRequired action

• Coherent and long-term strategic approach

• Strong but balanced action between technology development (R&D), regulatory framework and market deployment

• Sustainable market conditions

• Predictability and continuity (for investment) – no stop&go

• Grid access and light administrative procedures

• Transparency and competition

• Urgency for an increased and sustained effort



The contribution of the PV The contribution of the PV TPTP

• Industry, research community and governments interacting in one body

• Position statements and recommendations with one voice (e.g. FP 7, EC Directives, SET Plan)

• R&D, Policy and market facilitation

• Dedicated projects

• Events, workshops and publications



Examples products Examples products 20072007

Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) PV Fact sheets



SRA aims quantifiedSRA aims quantifiedcharacteristics of PV technology

Rounded figures

1980 Today 2015 / 2020 2030 Long term

potential

Typical turn-key system price

(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

>30 5

(range 4~8)

2.5 / 2.0 1 0.5

Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)

>2 0.30 0.15 / 0.12

(competitive with retail electricity)

0.06

(competitive with wholesale electricity)

0.03

Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)

up to 8% up to 15% Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40%

Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies

(10%) up to 25% Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60%

Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)

>10 2 1 0.5 0.25



PV in the SET plan (1)PV in the SET plan (1)

Targets

• At least 3% electricity by PV

• Reach grid-parity by 2020 in most of Europe

• Ensure a dominant position for the European PV industry



PV in the SET plan (2)PV in the SET plan (2)

Priority areas

• Support the PV industry in multi-GW production, in particular for equipment, processes, materials

• Ensure massive deployment in all market segments, with particular actions for BIPV / BAPV applications, grid integration and module recovery system

• Increase human resources in the sector

• Support communication and awareness



ConclusionsConclusions

• PV has emerged from a visionary R&D field and is entering an impressive industrial development phase

• PV holds the promise of a major contribution to a sustainable electricity supply

• Strong, dedicated and fast action is needed to realise the huge potential of photovoltaics

• PV is part of the solution, not the problem !

• If we don‘t do it, others certainly will !!







European Football European Football ChampionshipsChampionships

of course with of course with PV !PV !

Basel, 200 kWBasel, 200 kW

Zurich, 240 kWZurich, 240 kW

Bern, 1.35 MWBern, 1.35 MW



Dr. Stefan Nowak, Chairman IEA PVPSNET Nowak Energy & Technology Ltd.Waldweg 8, CH – 1717 St. Ursen, Switzerland

Tel. +41 26 494 00 30 / Fax +41 26 494 00 34

Email: [email protected]

Documents

General Assembly 2008, Ljubljana 1 Contribution of PV to 2020 Targets and beyond 3rd GENERAL ASSEMBLY 6 June 2008 Cankarjev Dom, Ljubljana, Slovenia