Future Trends in the Celtic Seasfuturetrends.celticseaspartnership.eu/downloads... · Partnership. The Celtic Seas Partnership is an EC LIFE+ project with the contribution of the

Future Trends in the Celtic Seas Baseline Report

Celtic Seas Partnership August 2016

This report was prepared by ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd on behalf of the Celtic Seas Partnership. The Celtic Seas Partnership is an EC LIFE+ project with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community. Its aim is to draw people together from across the Celtic Seas to set up innovative approaches to managing their marine environment. It is a four year project, running from January 2013 to December 2016. WWF-UK is the lead with partners the University of Liverpool, Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly, the Natural Environment Research Council and SeaWeb Europe. Project number: LIFE11/ENV/UK/392. Find out more at http://celticseaspartnership.eu/.

http://celticseaspartnership.eu/

Future Trends in the Celtic Seas Baseline Report

August 2016

Future Trends in the Celtic Seas Celtic Seas Partnership

ABPmer, August 2016, R.2584c | i

Document Information Document History and Authorisation Title Future Trends in the Celtic Seas Baseline Report Commissioned by Celtic Seas Partnership Issue date August 2016 Document ref R.2584c Project no R/4392/1

Date Version Revision Details 26/02/2016 1 Issue for client review 23/03/2016 1.1 Revised Baseline Report 15/07/2016 2 Issue for client use 04/08/2016 3 Issue for client use (addressing additional comments)

Prepared (PM) Approved (QM) Authorised (PD) Suzannah Walmsley Natalie Frost Stephen Hull

Suggested Citation ABPmer & ICF International, (2016). Future Trends in the Celtic Seas, Baseline Report, ABPmer Report No. R.2584c. A report produced by ABPmer & ICF International for Celtic Seas Partnership, August 2016. Contributing Authors Suzannah F. Walmsley; Stephen Hull; Caroline Roberts (ABPmer) Rupert Haines; Andrew White (ICF International).

Notice ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd ("ABPmer") has prepared this report in accordance with the client’s instructions, for the client’s sole purpose and use. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of ABPmer. ABPmer does not accept liability to any person other than the client. If the client discloses this report to a third party, it shall make them aware that ABPmer shall not be liable to them in relation to this report. The client shall indemnify ABPmer in the event that ABPmer suffers any loss or damage as a result of the client’s failure to comply with this requirement. Sections of this report may rely on information supplied by or drawn from third party sources. Unless otherwise expressly stated in this report, ABPmer has not independently checked or verified such information. ABPmer does not accept liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person, including the client, as a result of any error or inaccuracy in any third party information or for any conclusions drawn by ABPmer which are based on such information. All content in this report should be considered provisional and should not be relied upon until a final version marked ‘issued for client use’ is issued. All images copyright ABPmer apart from front cover (wave, anemone, bird: www.oceansedgephotography).

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Note on the UK’s Referendum on EU Membership (June 2016)

ABPmer note: This report was prepared before the UK referendum on membership of the European Union (EU). Following the UK’s decision to leave the EU, there is some uncertainty concerning the extent to which certain EU environmental legislation may continue to apply as this depends on the nature of the new relationship that is negotiated between the UK and the EU. On leaving the EU, the Common Fisheries Policy and Birds and Habitats Directive will no longer apply to the UK, but the majority of other EU legislation could continue to apply, particularly if the UK remained part of the Single Market. However, while some of the detailed legislation may change, the UK’s policy goals for the marine environment are unlikely to change substantially. For example, the UK will still be committed to achieving FMSY for fish stocks and will still be committed to achieving a well-managed network of MPAs in accordance with OSPAR commitments. Therefore, while some of the detail of implementation of environmental policy may change as a result of changes in legislative drivers, the broad direction of policy is likely to remain similar. Celtic Seas Partnership statement on the referendum: Following the outcome of the UK’s referendum on its membership of the EU, there will now be a period of uncertainty and it is likely to be some time before we fully understand what this means for marine policy. In the meantime, it is vitally important that we continue to work together across boundaries and sectors to ensure a healthy, sustainable future for our seas and the people who depend on them. Throughout the project we have received strong support in this endeavour from all the administrations across the Celtic Seas, including the Isle of Man which already operates outside the EU. We remain committed to ensuring that the work and relationships we’ve developed together are sustained beyond the life of the project.


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Contents

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1

2 Historical Conditions in the Celtic Seas .............................................................................. 3

2.1 Evolution of Celtic Seas since the last glacial period .................................................................... 3

2.2 Key anthropogenic influences................................................................................................................ 4

3 Current Environmental Conditions ....................................................................................... 9

3.1 Physical environment................................................................................................................................. 9

3.2 Biological environment .......................................................................................................................... 16

3.3 Ecosystem goods and services ........................................................................................................... 32

4 Current Marine Activities and Pressures .......................................................................... 35

4.1 Extraction of living resources .............................................................................................................. 35

4.2 Non-living resources ............................................................................................................................... 50

4.3 Energy production ................................................................................................................................... 53

4.4 Maritime transport................................................................................................................................... 61

4.5 Tourism and leisure ................................................................................................................................. 69

4.6 Land-based activities .............................................................................................................................. 75

4.7 Other sectors ............................................................................................................................................. 81

5 References .................................................................................................................................... 90

6 Abbreviations/Acronyms ........................................................................................................ 99

Tables

Table 1. Examples of land reclamation and extents ....................................................................................... 5 Table 2. Ten largest oil spills in the Celtic Seas ................................................................................................ 6 Table 3. Number of proposed and designated sites within the Celtic Seas ...................................... 16 Table 4. Habitats and species classified as threatened and/or declining ........................................... 20 Table 5. Status of marine habitats reported by the UK, Ireland and France ...................................... 21 Table 6. Status of diadromous fish species reported by the UK, Ireland and France .................... 24 Table 7. Status of marine mammals reported by the UK, Ireland and France .................................. 27 Table 8. 2010 QSR (OSPAR, 2010) summary statistics ................................................................................ 31 Table 9. Indicators of the spatial extent and concentration of mobile demersal fishing

activity in the Celtic Seas ICES ecoregion ....................................................................................... 38 Table 10. Economic data on the North-East Atlantic fleet structure and economic

performance for countries in the Celtic Seas (2013) .................................................................. 40 Table 11. Details of aquaculture production in each country .................................................................... 41 Table 12. Production volumes and imputed value of key aquaculture species .................................. 43 Table 13. Employment in the aquaculture sector ........................................................................................... 44 Table 14. Key pressures arising from the exploitation of marine living resources ............................ 46


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Table 15. Current and future key drivers of change of exploitation of marine living resources ..................................................................................................................................................... 48

Table 16. Key pressures arising from the marine aggregates sector ...................................................... 52 Table 17. Drivers of change for the marine aggregates sector ................................................................. 53 Table 18. Key pressures arising from the energy sector .............................................................................. 59 Table 19. Drivers of change for the energy sector ......................................................................................... 60 Table 20. Vessel transits in Celtic Seas by vessel type (%) .......................................................................... 62 Table 21. GVA – Regional Impact of the Port, Harbour and Shipping Industries .............................. 66 Table 22. Employment – Impact of the Ports, Harbours and Shipping Industries ............................. 67 Table 23. Key pressures arising from the transport sector .......................................................................... 67 Table 24. Drivers of change for the transport sector .................................................................................... 67 Table 25. Key pressures arising from the tourism and leisure sector ..................................................... 73 Table 26. Drivers of change for the tourism and leisure sector ................................................................ 74 Table 27. Key pressures arising from the coastal protection and flood defence sector ................. 78 Table 28. Key pressures arising from the waste disposal sector ............................................................... 79 Table 29. Drivers of change for the flood defence and coastal protection sector ............................ 80 Table 30. Drivers of change for the waste disposal sector .......................................................................... 80 Table 31. Key pressures associated with marine-related education and research ............................ 83 Table 32. Drivers of change for the education and research sector ........................................................ 83 Table 33. Key pressures arising from the military sector ............................................................................. 84 Table 34. Drivers of change for the military activity sector ........................................................................ 85 Table 35. Key pressures arising from the power interconnector sector ................................................ 86 Table 36. Drivers of change for the power interconnector sector ........................................................... 87 Table 37. Key pressures arising from the telecommunication cables sector ....................................... 88 Table 38. Drivers of change for the telecommunications cable sector .................................................. 89

Figures

Figure 1. The Celtic Seas ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2. The palaeogeography of north-west Europe during the last 20,000 years ......................... 3 Figure 3. Timeline of development of human activities in the Celtic Seas ............................................. 4 Figure 4. UK sea level index for the period since 1901 computed from sea level data from

five stations (Aberdeen, North Shields, Sheerness, Newlyn and Liverpool). The linear trend-line has a gradient of 1.4 mm/year ............................................................................. 7

Figure 5. Ocean surface pH projections to 2100 ............................................................................................... 8 Figure 6. Trend in annual average sea-surface temperature (°C/decade) from 1983 to

2012 .................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 7. Bathymetry within the Celtic Seas ..................................................................................................... 10 Figure 8. Annual mean spring peak currents ................................................................................................... 12 Figure 9. Annual mean wave height .................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 10. Eutrophication status, 2001–2005 ..................................................................................................... 15 Figure 11. Designated nature conservation sites in the Celtic Seas .......................................................... 17 Figure 12. Broad scale seabed habitats in the Celtic Seas ............................................................................ 19 Figure 13. Status of fish stocks from regional seas around Europe with respect to Good

Environmental Status (GES) .................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 14. Management Units for marine mammals in UK waters ............................................................ 25 Figure 15. SPAs holding internationally important assemblages of breeding seabirds in

Scotland, Northern Ireland, north east England and Wales .................................................... 29 Figure 16. The percentage of species in the Celtic Sea region that were within target levels

of abundance during 1986–2012 ....................................................................................................... 31 Figure 17. Ecosystem services and goods and benefits for coastal and marine ecosystems ......... 32


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Figure 18. Proportion of landings weight by country from the Celtic Seas, average 2009–2013 ............................................................................................................................................................... 35

Figure 19. Landings by ICES subdivision, by country (annual average, 2009–2013) .......................... 36 Figure 20. Historical reported landings from ICES areas VI and VII, 1950–2010. ................................. 37 Figure 21. Landings reported from Celtic Seas, 2006–2013. ........................................................................ 37 Figure 22. Bottom fishing intensity for surface and sub-surface abrasion ............................................. 39 Figure 23. Aquaculture locations in the Celtic Seas ......................................................................................... 41 Figure 24. Recent trends in UK Atlantic salmon (left) and shellfish production (right) ..................... 42 Figure 25. Recent trends in aquaculture production in Ireland .................................................................. 43 Figure 26. Marine aggregate licensed, application, option and exploration areas within the

Celtic Seas ................................................................................................................................................... 51 Figure 27. Recent historical extraction volumes of marine aggregates ................................................... 52 Figure 28. Oil and gas activity within the Celtic Seas ...................................................................................... 54 Figure 29. Timeline of oil and gas production within the Celtic Seas ...................................................... 54 Figure 30. Annual oil and gas production within the Celtic Seas (excluding Ireland), and as

a proportion of production from the UKCS................................................................................... 55 Figure 31. Oil price per barrel ................................................................................................................................... 56 Figure 32. Windfarm capacity within the Celtic Seas ...................................................................................... 57 Figure 33. Renewable energy generation within the Celtic Seas ............................................................... 58 Figure 34. Ports and harbours within the Celtic Seas ..................................................................................... 63 Figure 35. AIS shipping density grid ...................................................................................................................... 64 Figure 36. Shipping trend for European ports (left) and Celtic Seas ports (right) ............................... 65 Figure 37. Top 10 ports by freight in the Celtic Seas ...................................................................................... 65 Figure 38. UK and ROI ferry routes ........................................................................................................................ 66 Figure 39. Relationship linking tourism and recreation ................................................................................. 69 Figure 40. Spatial distribution of recreational boating activities ................................................................ 70 Figure 41. Visitor days, blue flag beaches, sailing areas and coastal world heritage sites .............. 71 Figure 42. Distribution of marinas, berths and tourist nights in the Celtic Seas .................................. 72 Figure 43. Expenditure on flood defence and coastal protection (England and Ireland) ................. 76 Figure 44. Coastal defence works ........................................................................................................................... 77 Figure 45. Major marine-related education and research institutes in the Celtic Seas ..................... 82 Figure 46. Trend of military budget for countries within the Celtic Seas ................................................ 84 Figure 47. Power cables within the Celtic Seas .................................................................................................. 86 Figure 48. Telecommunication cables within the Celtic Seas ...................................................................... 88


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1 Introduction The Celtic Seas Partnership is an EU LIFE+ funded project which aims to bring together key marine stakeholders, governments and the scientific community within the Celtic Seas1 (Figure 1) to support the implementation of EU environmental and maritime policy, using a stakeholder-led approach to contribute to the development of marine strategies, particularly the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The project partners comprise WWF-UK, Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly (Ireland), University of Liverpool, NERC’s British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) and SeaWeb (France). The Celtic Seas Partnership’s overall aim is ‘To support the delivery of Good Environmental Status in the Celtic Seas, by facilitating engagement between sectors and across borders to ensure the long term future of the environment, while safeguarding people’s livelihoods and the communities that have a relationship with the sea.’ The Celtic Seas are under significant pressure from human activities. While progress has been made in tackling point source pollution, recent reports such as Charting Progress 2 (UKMMAS, 2010a) and the European Environment Agency’s (EEA) State of the Environment Report (EEA, 2015) continue to document declines in some elements of biodiversity linked to both human activity pressures and climate change. There are a number of significant drivers of change which will affect the Celtic Seas region over the next 20 years. Some of these drivers such as the EU Blue Growth Strategy and Atlantic Action Plan are likely to lead to increased levels of economic activity, potentially increasing demand for space and resources and increasing conflict between marine users and the natural environment. Other drivers such as the MSFD and reform of the Common Fisheries Policy seek to ensure adequate levels of protection are provided to the marine environment. The recent Maritime Spatial Planning Directive has a potential role in balancing competing demands between marine activities and between marine activities and the environment. All of the above drivers strongly promote the ecosystem approach2 which provides for the integrated management of economic, social and environmental requirements. However, full application of the ecosystem approach remains challenging due to the complexities of marine systems, and lack of scientific understanding of environmental thresholds, limits, and effects of human pressures on ecosystem services (Hull et al., 2014; eftec and ABPmer, 2014; eftec, ABPmer and Stirling University, 2014). Nevertheless, it remains important that progress is made if sustainable development is to be achieved. Recognising these challenges, the Celtic Seas Partnership has carried out a ground-breaking study exploring future growth scenarios in the Celtic Seas and the resulting impacts on environmental, social and economic conditions with the aim of highlighting the need for integrated marine management beyond the lifespan of the Celtic Seas Partnership.

1 Figure 1 shows the Celtic Seas area used by the Celtic Seas Partnership. Celtic Seas is one of the defined sub-regions

under the MSFD, although its boundaries are not yet defined at EU level. 2 The ecosystem approach is defined in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive as an approach which ensures the

collective pressure of human activities is kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good environmental status and that the capacity of marine ecosystems to respond to human-induced changes is not compromised, while enabling the sustainable use of marine goods and services by present and future generations.



This Baseline Report is one of a series of technical outputs of the study and describes the baseline environmental and socio-economic conditions and trends within the Celtic Seas. The full series of reports is as follows:

Summary Report Methodology Report Baseline Report Scenarios Report Analysis Report

Figure 1. The Celtic Seas



2 Historical Conditions in the Celtic Seas The Celtic Seas includes parts of the open Atlantic west of Ireland and Scotland, shallow seas surrounded by land in the Irish Sea and west of Scotland and numerous sea lochs and large estuaries, such as the Shannon, Severn and Solway Firth. Most of the Celtic Seas is relatively shallow (OSPAR3, 2010), but to the west of Scotland and Ireland there are deeper areas (2,000–3,000 m water depth) off the continental shelf (see Section 3.1). Since the last glacial period, the coastline and seabed of north-west Europe have been experiencing progressive changes, both natural and anthropogenic. This section describes the evolution of the Celtic Seas, with consideration of changes in coastline position that have occurred since the last glacial period. Historical anthropogenic pressures and their evolution are described, with a focus on fishing, water quality, land reclamation and energy production, as well as the emerging influence of climate change on the Celtic Seas.

2.1 Evolution of Celtic Seas since the last glacial period

Describing the genesis of the Celtic Seas is a key step to a comprehensive understanding of its current characteristics and how its natural history has evolved; the historical environmental conditions set the scene for the discussion of the key anthropogenic pressures over time. During the last glacial period, the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) reached its maximum area of approximately 0.72 million km², stretching from south-west Ireland to north-east Scotland (Figure 2) around 27 thousand years before present (BP) (Clark et al., 2012). Deglaciation and ice retreat are believed to have started between 20 and 19 thousand years BP in response to increased levels of solar insulation, which raised temperatures and sea level (Clark et al., 2012). At the same time, ancient dry land started to be inundated until the current position of the shoreline was reached around six thousand years ago (Brooks et al., 2012) (Figure 2). Much of the Celtic Seas comprises shallow shelf seas, with deeper areas to the west of Ireland and Scotland off the continental shelf.

Source: Brooks et al., 2011.

Figure 2. The palaeogeography of north-west Europe during the last 20,000 years

3 Oslo-Paris Convention, a regional sea convention to protect and conserve the North-East Atlantic and its resources



2.2 Key anthropogenic influences

The Celtic Seas have supported a wide diversity of human activities over time. Historically this was limited to low levels of fishing and shipping activity, but particularly over the last two centuries a wider range of activities has taken place in the area, and at increasingly higher levels of intensity (Figure 3). These activities have resulted in pressures on the marine environment which have led to changes in the structure and function of the component marine ecosystems. In addition, activities on land have also contributed to environmental pressures within the Celtic Seas, particularly waste discharges to rivers which increase pollutant loads to the sea and changes in land use, which contribute to sources of diffuse pollution. Four of the key influences that have affected the structure and function of the Celtic Seas — land reclamation, water quality, energy production and commercial fishing — are described below.

Figure 3. Timeline of development of human activities in the Celtic Seas



2.2.1 Land reclamation

Land reclamation, defined as the gain of land from the sea or coastal wetlands, has been undertaken in the Celtic Seas since Roman times, originally to create agricultural land but in more recent centuries also to provide development land for ports and waterside industries. Such reclamation has led to substantial losses of intertidal habitats, particularly within estuaries.

Table 1. Examples of land reclamation and extents

Area Reclamation Details Gwent Levels in the Severn Estuary

Reclamation commenced in Roman times, resulting in a reclamation of more than 100 km².

Ribble Estuary on the Sefton coast (north-west England)

Long history of reclamation dating from the 16th century with further major reclamation occurring in the 19th century, such that only a small proportion of the original intertidal area remains (CH2MHill, 2013).

Shannon Estuary, west coast of Ireland

Land has been progressively reclaimed since the 10th century with a total of approximately 6,500 ha of estuary lowland reclaimed for agriculture and other purposes (Flemming and Nyandwi, 1994).

2.2.2 Commercial fishing

Commercial fishing has occurred in the Celtic Seas for hundreds of years. Prior to the late 19th century, fishing activity was limited to the use of sailing boats. A rapid expansion of fishing effort began, however, with the development of steam trawlers in the 1880s. Steam power enabled vessels to fish further offshore, for longer durations, with larger gear to reach deeper areas (Thurstan et al., 2010). The increased power of the vessels also enabled them to trawl over rougher ground and resulted in increased impacts to seabed habitats. By 1885, fish stocks depletion and habitat damage started to be noticed, which led to the initiation of collection of catch data. For the last 120 years, fish landings have experienced a dramatic decline, and in 1889, a largely sail-powered fleet landed twice as many fish into the UK than the current fleet of technologically-sophisticated vessels. During peak catches in 1938, landings were 5.4 times more than today (Thurstan et al., 2010). However, some of these catches were from the wider North-east Atlantic, North-west Atlantic and Arctic areas, including areas in which the fleet no longer fishes, and some of which now fall within national jurisdictions. In France, landings for demersal species have been declining since 1970’s, from a peak of around 180,000 tonnes to around 80,000 tonnes in 2007. For the same period, Irish demersal species have been approximately stable, with around 50,000 tonnes being landed per year (Irish Marine Institute, 2009). The ratification of the United National Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1994 and establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) by coastal states limited the operation of distant-water fleets, which had previously derived significant catches from areas that are now within EEZs. It has been estimated that predatory fish in the North Atlantic have declined by 90% since 1900 (Christensen et al., 2003) and bottom-living fish around the UK by 94% from 1889 to 2007 (Thurstan et al., 2010). These losses are particularly serious as they encompass entire components of the marine ecosystem, not just a single species. The effects of trawling on the seabed have also damaged important seabed habitats, affecting biodiversity and benthic biomass. The increasing technology and power of the fishing fleet, and depletion of near-shore fish stocks, has resulted in fishing activity progressively moving into deeper waters. More recent trends in commercial fisheries are described further in Section 3.1.1.



2.2.3 Water quality

There have been a number of influences on water quality in the Celtic Seas over time. Population growth and industrialisation in the 19th century resulted in increasing use of the sea (and rivers flowing into the sea) for the disposal of sewage and industrial wastes, causing pollution of industrialised estuaries and near-shore coastal waters. During the 20th century, intensification of agriculture and urbanisation of landscapes led to increases in diffuse pollution entering the sea, particularly pesticides and nutrients. At the same time, the expanding demand for oil led to significant increases in the presence of organic contaminants in the marine environment, including hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Improved regulation of aquatic discharges (e.g. the Water Resources Act 1963, the Prevention of Oil Pollution Act 1971) in the latter part of the 20th century led to significant improvements in water quality around the Celtic Seas, particularly in estuaries such as the Mersey and in near-shore coastal waters, The Water Framework Directive (WFD) (2000/60/EC) establishes a framework for the protection and enhancement of inland water bodies, estuaries, coastal waters and groundwaters. It sets ecological as well as chemical targets (objectives) for each surface water body. The MSFD also requires good environmental status to be achieved for contaminant levels, and applies beyond the coastal waters of the WFD to the wider marine environment. Around 27% of the estuarine and coastal water bodies in the UK do not currently achieve Good Chemical Status (concentrations of priority and priority substances exceed European standards) or Good Ecological Status (supporting elements such as nutrients exceed national standards) and some issues remain as a result of historic contamination of marine sediments (JNCC, 2015). In Ireland, around 55% of the estuarine and coastal water bodies are currently failing to meet Good Ecological Status (Environmental Protection Agency, 2010).

Oil spills

Improvements in safety and emergency systems have reduced the number of oil spills over the last 40 years. In the 1970s, 768 incidents of 7 tonnes or over were registered globally, resulting in 3,400,000 tonnes of oil lost. Between 2010 and 2015, however, only 42 incidents occurred, resulting in 33,000 tonnes of oil lost. A few large spills are responsible for a high percentage of the total amount of oil spilt in the last five years — 86% resulted from only 10 incidents (ITOPF, 2016). The four greatest oil spills that have occurred in the Celtic Seas are the Amoco Cadiz, Torrey Canyon, MV Braer and the Sea Empress (Table 2), which released an estimated combined quantity of 503,000 tonnes of oil.

Table 2. Ten largest oil spills in the Celtic Seas

Spill / Vessel Location Date Max Tonnes

Amoco Cadiz France: Brittany March 1978 227,000 Torrey Canyon United Kingdom: Cornwall and Isles of Scilly March 1967 119,000 MV Braer United Kingdom: Shetland Islands January 1993 85,000 Sea Empress United Kingdom: Pembrokeshire February 1996 72,000 Betelgeuse Ireland: Bantry Bay January 1979 64,000 Tanio oil spill France: Brittany March 1980 13,500 Thomas W. Lawson United Kingdom: Isles of Scilly December 1907 7,400 Afran Zodiac Ireland: Bantry Bay January 1975 451 West Cork oil spill Ireland: Southern coast February 2009 300 TK Bremen France: Brittany and Erdeven December 2011 220



2.2.4 Energy production

The United Kingdom and Irish continental shelves have substantial deposits of oil and gas. The principal areas for exploration and development include north-west Ireland, southern Ireland, the Irish Sea and west of Shetland. Gas production from the Kinsale fields, approximately 50 km south of Cork started in 1978, with offshore gas production in the eastern Irish Sea starting in the mid-1980s. Significant discoveries of oil and gas were made to the west of Shetland in the early 1990s with production commencing in the late 1990s. Oil and gas exploration and development gives rise to a number of environmental pressures including underwater noise associated with geophysical surveys, habitat loss and damage associated with the installation of infrastructure, and the release of contaminants during drilling and operations. However, all of these activities are regulated to reduce the environmental risks. Within the last decade, a number of offshore wind farms have been constructed within the Celtic Seas, all within the Irish Sea. These offshore wind farms have an installed capacity of over 2 GW. Offshore wind development gives rise to a number of environmental pressures including underwater noise, and habitat loss and damage associated with the installation of infrastructure. Again, all of these activities are regulated in an attempt to minimise environmental risks.

2.2.5 Climate change

There is strong scientific evidence that climate change is affecting the marine environment including the Celtic Seas through increasing sea levels (Figure 4), ocean acidification (Figure 5) and sea temperatures (Figure 6) which are giving rise to changes in the geographical distribution of species and affecting the functioning of marine ecosystems.

Source: Kendon et al. 2014

Figure 4. UK sea level index for the period since 1901 computed from sea level data from five stations (Aberdeen, North Shields, Sheerness, Newlyn and Liverpool). The linear trend-line has a gradient of 1.4 mm/year



Source: Ocean acidification website

Figure 5. Ocean surface pH projections to 2100

Source: Dye et al. 2013

Figure 6. Trend in annual average sea-surface temperature (°C/decade) from 1983 to 2012

Over the last 200 years, global ocean acidity has increased by 30% and at a rate much faster than that which has been experienced any time over the last 65 million years. This has serious implications for marine ecosystems, particularly organisms with calcified shells (Turley et al., 2009). It also affects the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2 and thus has implications for climate regulation (Turley et al., 2009). Heath et al. (2009) document the significant range shifts that have occurred in zooplankton within the Celtic Seas as a result of increasing sea temperatures. These shifts have affected the distribution and abundance of sandeels, which feed on the zooplankton, which in turn has affected the abundance of some seabird species.



3 Current Environmental Conditions The following sections describe the current status of the biological environment in the Celtic Seas using recent assessments undertaken in relation to the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the EU Habitats Directive4.

3.1 Physical environment

3.1.1 Bathymetry

The physiography of the Celtic Seas is highly varied, ranging from large shallow-gradient areas of deep ocean sea bed to the steep rugged flanks of submerged glacial troughs on the shelf (Figure 7). The bathymetry within the study area varies from coastal areas to very deep waters, with depths of more than 4,000 m. Much of the sea bed of the study area is within the continental shelf, characterised by shallow depths (generally less than 200 m), which extend around 400 km to the west of Ireland. In Scotland, the continental shelf comprises the Malin and Hebrides Shelf Seas, Orkney and Shetland Shelf Seas, and part of the North Sea. On the eastern coast of the Hebrides, water depths are typically shallow and the seabed shelves gently away from the coast (AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a) with a slope of 1:500. At the western coast of the Hebrides, however, the seabed slope is considerably steeper, around 1:250, such that the 100 m depth contour is relatively close to the coast. The eastern border of the Irish Sea, which comprises part of the west coast of Scotland, England and Wales, presents more gentle slopes than the western side. Within the North Channel, water depths vary between 100 m and 250 m, and the seabed slopes steeply away for the coast, with an average gradient of around 1:100. Within St George’s Channel, maximum water depths of around 160 m are recorded. The eastern side of the channel shelves gently towards the west coast of Wales and the 100 m contour is generally located approximately 80 km from the coast. The continental shelf at the northern coast of Brittany (France) towards the English Channel is generally gentle, with depths reaching a maximum of 100 m and a slope of around 1:200. The shelf break, which marks the start of the continental slope, is located at around 180 km and 120 km from north and west Scotland, respectively, and further offshore, around 400 km, from the western coast of Ireland. Within the continental slope, depths sudden increase, varying from less than 200 m to more than 1,500 m at the foot of the continental shelf, with slopes of around 1:15. Beyond of the continental slope, the deep ocean seafloor includes (from north to south) the sea bed of the Faroe-Shetland Channel, the Rockall Trough, the Hatton Basin, the Ireland Basin and the West European Basin. The greatest water depths are found in the Ireland and West European Basin, where in places water depths exceed 3,000 m (Figure 7). Throughout most of the region, however, depths are more typically around 2,000 m. Regional-scale seabed gradients are generally low and less than 1:1,000 across many areas of the Rockall Trough. The Celtic Seas deep ocean areas have a complex bathymetry that is broken up by steep ridges (e.g. the Wyville-Thomson Ridge), seamounts (e.g. Anton Dohrn) and banks (e.g. Rockall Bank) (Baxter et al., 2008). They are characterised by rugged steep flanks which commonly rise in excess of 1000 m

4 Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora.



above the surrounding seafloor. Water depths over the crests of these topographic highs are often less than 500 m, although with the exception of Rockall Bank, the summits do not protrude above the sea surface.

Figure 7. Bathymetry within the Celtic Seas

3.1.2 Geology and seabed sediments

Across the seabed of the Celtic Seas, variations in sea bed topography and sediments are influenced by the structure and composition of the underlying bedrock, the configurations and composition of features originating at former terrestrial and submarine ice-sheet margins, carbonate biological sedimentary input and by the interactions of all these with the present day near-bed currents (Holmes et al., 2004). Based on age and geological processes, the geological environment of the Celtic Seas (AECOM and Metoc, 2010) can be divided in:

Bedrock geology: rocks older than 1.8 million years old formed before the last glacial period; Drift (Quaternary) geology: rocks and semi-consolidated material deposited since the start of

the last glacial period and are from 1.8 million to 10,000 years old; and



Seabed sediments: the youngest materials formed from reworking of either the solid or Quaternary material, river inputs of sediments or the creation of new material, such as biogenic shells.

In the deep ocean areas, many of the steep ridges, seamounts and banks were formed by volcanic activity which took place between the late Cretaceous (70 million years ago) and Mid-Palaeogene (approximately 40 million years ago) with most of the activity occurring between 62–54 million years ago. In these areas, the seabed is predominantly composed of exposed bedrock (Defra, 2009; BGS, 2010; 2014). At the beginning of the Holocene interglacial (around 11,600 years ago), rapid glacial sedimentation ceased, sedimentary input from rivers to the open shelves was very low, and the main source of new sediment up to the present day has been from biogenic carbonate (Holmes et al., 2006). Most of the continental shelf is covered by sands and gravels which are largely derived from the reworking and winnowing of glacial sequences by near-bottom currents and waves. Coarse (gravel-sized) sediments are especially prevalent along the outer shelf edge and upper slope, in water depths down to about 500 m. These sediments are associated with furrows caused by the ploughing action of icebergs on the sea bed during the last glacial period. Elsewhere, sand and muddy-sandy deposits dominate. In many areas, these muddy sediments are associated with downslope debris flows. These have formed from the ample delivery of glacigenic sediment to the shelf break and upper slope during shelf-edge glaciations which occurred over at least the last 500,000 years in this region (Dahlgren et al., 2005).

3.1.3 Hydrodynamics

Non-tidal currents

Within the study area, water masses are highly variable with distinct characteristics interacting and mixing. Seas around the UK and Ireland are directly influenced by oceanic circulation within the North Atlantic. A key component of the surface circulation is the North Atlantic Drift (NAD) which brings warm water northwards and moves it around Ireland and Britain (AECOM and Metoc, 2010). This current is partly wind-driven and partly driven by the density differences between the warmer, southern water and the cooler, northern water. The NAD is responsible for the average winter sea temperatures on the west coast of Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland being warmer than those on the east coast.

Tidal regime

Tidal currents across the Celtic Seas are highly variable. Generally, tidal currents are low along the west and south coasts of Ireland and on the west coast of Scotland, ranging between 0.2 and 0.5 metres per second (m/s) (Brooks et al., 2012). Where flow becomes constrained by topography, peak flow speeds become intensified, especially in St. George’s Channel and the North Channel in the Irish Sea. Annual mean spring peak currents (Figure 8) vary between 1.0 and 2.0 m/s, reaching up to 2.5 m/s close to Anglesey and St. David’s Head (Wales), between the Isle of Whithorn and the Isle of Man, and within the Severn Estuary (England) (ABPmer et al., 2008; Marine Scotland, 2013). In Ireland, the strongest tidal currents occur within the Shannon Estuary, Null’s Mouth and Inishtrahull Sound (Irish Marine Institute, 2016). On the north coast of Brittany (France), maximum tidal currents vary between 0.25 m/s and 1.0 m/s (Garreau, 1993).



Source: ABPmer et al., 2008

Figure 8. Annual mean spring peak currents

In certain places, the topographic constraints lead to the occurrence of exceptionally high current speeds, which are amongst the fastest in the world. Notable examples include the Pentland Firth and the Gulf of Corryvreckan (between Scarba and Jura), both in Scotland, where peak flow speeds can reach around 4.0 m/s (Barne et al., 1997). In terms of the overall transportation of water within the study area, the effect of the tides is small since tidal currents primarily move water back and forth with little net change in displacement of water. However, the tidal currents are powerful enough to transport and control the build-up of large volumes of finer sediment which influence many of Scotland’s firths. The mean spring range at western Scotland and Ireland presents a variation between 3.0 m to 5.0 m. Along the North Channel, spring tidal range increases from 1.0 m to 4.5 m southwards, indicating the tidal wave propagation in a south-easterly direction. Within the southern Irish Sea, tidal conditions are governed by a land-based tidal amphidrome5, situated in the vicinity of Arklow (southeast of Ireland). Along the east coast of Ireland, the mean spring tidal range varies from 1.0 m to 3.5 m to the south of Dublin and 3.0 m to 4.5 m to the north. Similarly, the mean spring tidal range increases from 3 m and

5 Amphidromic point is a location on Earth where one of the harmonic constituents of the tide has zero amplitude, i.e.,

the tidal range is zero.



4.5 m in a northerly direction within St George’s Channel and along the west coast of Wales (ABPmer et al., 2008; AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a). Tidal waves converge in the vicinity of the Isle of Man and, due to the fact that the tidal propagation by North Channel and St. George’s Channel is virtually simultaneous, a standing wave travelling in an easterly direction into Liverpool Bay is created. This results in an increase of tidal ranges towards the east, from around 5.5 m at the southern Isle of Man and Anglesey to more than 8 m at the Dee Estuary and Morecambe Bay (ABPmer et al., 2008). Maximum tidal ranges in the vicinity of Brittany (France) are around 7.0 m to 8.0 m, with little variation (HR Wallingford, 2013).

Waves

Within the Celtic Seas, considerable variation in the wave climate is experienced, as the degree of exposure to the North Atlantic (which is controlled by coastal orientation and sheltering effects) and the substantial variation between the offshore and inshore water depths (which controls the process of wave attenuation) (Figure 9).

Source: ABPmer et al., 2008

Figure 9. Annual mean wave height



At the western coast of Ireland and Scotland, and within the south coast of Ireland towards England, the wave climate is predominantly influenced by conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean, where the fetch is long enough to establish large swell waves which originate in the North Atlantic. These areas are exposed to large North Atlantic storm conditions, with mean winter significant wave heights in excess of 3 m in places and 50-year return period significant wave heights of up to 16 m (ABPmer et al., 2008; Carter and Challenor, 1989). Although very large storm events are infrequent, wave periods may be sufficiently long to influence the seabed to depths greater than 100 m, with wave-induced orbital currents temporally re-suspending fine-grained sediment. In comparison, the Irish Sea is far more sheltered, and large swell waves can propagate the North and St. George’s Channels (Howarth, 2005). However, the majority of waves are locally-generated and have limited influence on sediment movements. Locally, where deep water approaches the coast, severe wave attack can occur and, therefore, waves may have an important influence in coastal evolution. The coasts of north Wales and north-west England are predominantly exposed to waves from the north and north-west, with a mean annual significant wave heights typically less than 1 m.

3.1.4 Morphology

The seabed across the Celtic Seas is characterised mainly by features formed by glacial processes. The advance and retreat of ice sheets during successive glacial periods formed glaciated channels and troughs in many areas, including between the Outer Hebrides and Western Scotland, within the North Channel and in St. George’s Channel. As they retreated, these ice sheets deposited glacial moraines (unconsolidated glacial debris), which are abundant off north-west Scotland, the Celtic Sea and Irish Sea (ABPmer, 2009; AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a). Active features, such as sand wave and sand ribbon fields, which are formed by present-day tidal currents and wave action, are also present across many parts of the Celtic Seas. They are abundant off the coast of Northern Ireland and within the Irish Sea, whilst sand banks are also common, especially off south and south-east Ireland, in the Solway Firth and in Morecambe Bay. Although sand and gravel bed forms are predominant in the Irish Sea, two extensive mud belts are also present, between the coast of Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man and between the east coast of the Isle of Man and north-west England. These are associated with areas of deep water and/or weak tidal flows. Sharp-edged sand patches occur in areas where wave energy is relatively high, such as on the Malin and Hebridean shelf, off the Cumbria coast and in the Celtic Sea (Jackson et al., 1995; Holmes and Tappin, 2005). Estuaries represent an important coastal feature, influencing both offshore and inshore environments. Within the Celtic Seas, the most relevant estuaries are the Severn Estuary and Morecambe Bay in the English coast; Carmarthen Estuary in the Welsh coast; Solway Firth in the Scottish coast (JNCC, 2016); and Dundalk Bay and Shannon Estuary in the Irish coast (AECOM and Metoc, 2010). Within Northern Ireland, estuaries are poorly developed and major sea loughs have negligible freshwater influence (JNCC, 2016).

3.1.5 Water quality

The Celtic Seas lie within Region III (Celtic Seas), a small part of Region II (Greater North Sea) and part of Region V (Wider Atlantic), of OSPAR maritime areas (Figure 10). The most intense human activity in this area is in and around the Irish Sea, particularly on the coasts, although population densities are not as high as those around the North Sea and Iberian coasts.



Overall, water quality is good within the Celtic Seas, with the waters off the west coasts of Ireland and Scotland relatively un-impacted by contamination. The offshore waters within Celtic Seas are well oxygenated, generally being well-mixed and remote from polluting inputs. Reductions in dissolved oxygen concentrations can occur as a result of increased biological consumption, such as in the event of eutrophication, as well as other natural processes (e.g. chemical oxygen demand or persistent thermal stratification which restricts mixing). Anthropogenic-induced eutrophication is mainly restricted to inshore waters such as bays, estuaries and fjords. In the Celtic Seas, eutrophication is mostly observed along the Irish coast, with 26 inshore problem areas (Figure 10) (OSPAR, 2009). However, the French coast presents five problem areas due to eutrophication effects. The classification of estuaries and coastal waters as ‘problem’ or ‘non problem’ areas is mainly based on chlorophyll, phytoplankton indicator species and macrophytes. Recent monitoring has shown that the discharge of radionuclides from the nuclear sector has been declining and tributyl tin (TBT) (previously common in marine antifouling paints) levels are generally acceptable within the Celtic Seas, although there are still some problem areas close to harbours. Levels of hazardous substances, such as heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB), are still unacceptable mainly around the Irish Sea, although concentrations have fallen in sediment, fish and shellfish (OSPAR, 2010).

Source: OSPAR, 2010

Figure 10. Eutrophication status, 2001–2005



3.2 Biological environment

3.2.1 Designated nature conservation sites

There are a total of 482 protected marine nature conservation sites, and 53 proposed sites, in the Celtic Seas (Table 3). The total area covered by designated sites is just over 11 million hectares (12% of the total Celtic Seas), with a further 6.1 million hectares that may be designated in the short-term (which would increase the area designated for conservation to 19%). Figure 11 shows the designated and proposed sites for future designation in the Celtic Seas.

Table 3. Number of proposed and designated sites within the Celtic Seas

Designation Type

Designation Number of Sites

Area (ha)

Existing Designations International Ramsar 76 162,159

European

SAC Special Area of Conservation 177 2,328,751 SCI Site of Community Importance 12 1,270,259 cSAC candidate Special Area of Conservation 4 88,858 SPA Special Protection Area 166 979,284

National MCZ Marine Conservation Zone 25 880,096 Scottish Marine Protected Area 21 5,452,272 MNR Marine Nature Reserve 1 9,375

Total 482 11,171,053 Potential Future Designations

European pSAC possible Special Area of Conservation 4 1,807,066 pSPA proposed Special Protection Area 3 150,686 dSPA draft Special Protection Area 14 1,743,833

National rMCZ recommended Marine Conservation Zone 25 1,318,639 pMCZ proposed Marine Conservation Zone 4 11,499 Proposed Scottish Marine Protected Area 3 1,151,577

Total 53 6,183,300 Based on proposed and designated sites shown in Figure 11. Area shown is indicative only. Note: The Celtic Sea covers 93,177,700 hectares.



Figure 11. Designated nature conservation sites in the Celtic Seas



3.2.2 Pelagic habitats

Description

Pelagic (water column) habitats provide the base of the food web, with half of primary production from photosynthesis by microbes and phytoplankton communities in water column habitats (UKMMAS, 2010b). Changes to microbial and phytoplankton communities can potentially affect the survival and success of fish, turtles, seabirds, and marine mammals. Also, through various feedback processes, pelagic habitats can both influence, and be influenced by climate change (EEA, 2015). Phytoplankton productivity and composition in the Celtic Seas has been shown to depend on water column structure. Diatoms dominate in well-mixed areas with high nutrient content and display high rates of productivity, while dinoflagellates and microflagellates are found in stratified waters exhibiting lower rates of productivity. Certain oceanographic conditions can lead to the formation of toxic algal blooms around Irish coasts, with the highest occurrence noted along the south-west of Ireland (ICES, 2008 and references therein). There is large inter-annual variation in the onset and scale of the spring bloom of phytoplankton in the Celtic Seas. In the mixed waters of the Irish Sea, the spring phytoplankton bloom is usually about a month later, and the autumn decline about two months earlier, than in the more open shelf waters to the north and south. In the more open waters of the Malin Shelf and Celtic Sea, there is often a small autumn bloom before winter (OSPAR, 2000). With regard to zooplankton, copepods account for up to 97% dry weight of the total zooplankton biomass in the Celtic Seas. Smaller species predominate in the tidally-mixed near-shore environments, and to a lesser extent, the stratified regions of the Irish Sea. Larger species are more suitable as prey for fish larvae and are abundant in the Celtic Sea and Malin Shelf (OSPAR, 2000). There are strong inter-annual variations in zooplankton abundance throughout the Celtic Seas, which have implications for the availability of food supplied for fish larvae.

Status

Major changes have taken place in both the phytoplankton and zooplankton communities of the seas around the British Isles over the last few decades, including (Edwards et al., 2013):

Extensive changes in the planktonic ecosystem in terms of plankton production, biodiversity and species distribution which has had effects other marine life; and

Alterations in the seasonal timing of some plankton production, in response to recent climate changes, with consequences for plankton predator species, including fish, whose life cycles are timed in order to make use of seasonal production of particular prey species.

The latest report on the status of the ICES Celtic Seas ecoregion6 (ICES, 2015a) reported that the abundance of diatom and dinoflagellate (phytoplankton) species have declined since 1958 in both shelf and oceanic waters. Abundance of both species groups on the Malin shelf have increased since 2004; abundance also increased in the coastal waters of south and southwest Ireland between the years 1990 and 2010 (ICES, 2015a). There has also been a decline in overall copepod (zooplankton) abundance since 1958. The cold-water species Calanus finmarchicus and Pseudocalanus spp. have decreased in abundance, although the warm-water copepod C. helgolandicus has increased in abundance and spread northwards, presumably in response to ocean warming (ICES, 2015a). The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP, 2013) stated that changes to primary production are expected throughout the UK, with southern regions (e.g. Celtic Sea, English Channel) becoming up to 10% more productive and northern regions (e.g. central and northern North Sea) up to 20% less productive; with clear implications for fisheries.

6 A region very similar to the Celtic Seas in the current study, except extending further into the western Channel



3.2.3 Benthic habitats and species

Description

The Celtic Seas has a wide range of coastal and seabed habitats with diverse biological communities. The seabed in the ICES Celtic Sea ecoregion is primarily comprised of sublittoral sedimentary habitats (Figure 12), with extensive areas of mixed sediments including coarse and sandy to muddy areas on the Malin shelf, coarse and mixed sediments with some muddy patches in the Irish Sea, and coarse, rocky, and sandy to muddy sands (ICES, 2015b). However, areas of rock and hard substratum are present in the northern and inshore parts of this region (ICES 2015a).

Figure 12. Broad scale seabed habitats in the Celtic Seas



The area supports a high proportion of the North-East Atlantic sea-pen and burrowing megafauna communities, which occur in sheltered areas such as sea lochs or on the deeper parts of the shelf associated with soft sediments (OSPAR, 2010). The coarser sediments are habitats for commercially important shellfish species, for example king and queen scallops (Pecten maximus and Aequipecten opercularis), and to sensitive species and habitats, for example, maerl, brittle star beds, horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) beds, and fan mussels (Atrina fragilis). Nearshore rocky habitats are characterised by algae and epifauna; however, some areas of rocky habitat in deep waters in the northern part of the region are characterized by hydroids, bryozoans, and cnidarians such as seafans (Eunicella verrucosa and Swiftia pallida) (ICES, 2015a). Offshore areas on the shelf slope support reefs of deep-water corals such as Lophelia pertusa (ICES, 2008). Key protected marine habitats that occur within the Celtic Seas include: tidal rapids, seagrass beds, submerged or partially-submerged seacaves, Sabellaria reefs, coastal saltmarsh, maerl beds, cold water corals, saline lagoons, mudflats, sheltered muddy gravel, mud habitats in deep water, sublittoral sands and gravels, Modiolus modiolus beds, estuaries, littoral and sublittoral chalk (AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a). As noted above, many of the species associated with the coastal and seabed habitats are commercially important, such as scallops, Nephrops, crabs, lobsters and bivalve shellfish (OSPAR, 2000; OSPAR, 2010). Many of the smaller benthic species provide a source of food not only for commercially-important fish such as plaice and sole but also for a wide range of other predatory fish, birds and marine mammals (OSPAR, 2000).

Status

Benthic habitats and species in the Celtic Seas which are classified by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Habitats and species classified as threatened and/or declining

Species / Habitat Type Species / Habitat Name Invertebrate Dogwhelk Coastal Intertidal Mytilus edulis beds on mixed and sandy sediments

Intertidal mudflats Ostrea edulis beds Zostera beds

Shelf-sea Modiolus modiolus beds Sabellaria spinulosa reefs Maerl beds Sea-pen and burrowing megafauna communities

Deep-sea Lophelia pertusa reefs Coral gardens Deep-sea sponge aggregations

Source: OSPAR (2010) EEA (2015) reported that the Marine Atlantic region (which includes, but is not limited to the Celtic Seas) showed a particularly high proportion (71.4%) of unfavourable to bad assessments (undertaken in relation to the EU Habitat Directive) in 2012.



Table 5 shows the status of marine habitats in the UK, Ireland and France reported under Article 17 of the EU Habitats Directive in 2013 (habitats and species categorised as being included in ‘Marine Atlantic’ region are shown; results for terrestrial and coastal habitats/species are not shown).

Table 5. Status of marine habitats reported by the UK, Ireland and France

Country Habitat or Species Status (2013) UK* Estuaries U2-

Large shallow inlets and bays U2= Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide U2+ Reefs U1- Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time U1= Submarine structures made by leaking gases XX

France* Estuaries U2= Large shallow inlets and bays U2x Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide U1= Reefs U1x Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time U2-

Ireland Estuaries U1+ Large shallow inlets and bays U1+ Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide U1+ Reefs U2- Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time FV

* Information presented from the Member State summary reports from UK and France are at national level and are not specific to the Celtic Seas in this study. The status of marine habitats reported by the Republic of Ireland can be assumed to lie within the Celtic Seas.

Status Key: FV Favourable U2 Unfavourable bad U1 Unfavourable inadequate U2+ Unfavourable-bad improving U1+ Unfavourable-inadequate improving U2= Unfavourable-bad stable U1= Unfavourable-inadequate stable U2- Unfavourable-bad declining U1- Unfavourable-inadequate declining U2x Unfavourable-bad trend unknown U1x Unfavourable-inadequate trend unknown XX Unknown

Source: EC CIRCABC website7

3.2.4 Fish

Description

The large range of habitats in the Celtic Seas support a diverse fish fauna, including many commercially-important species. The Celtic Sea demersal (groundfish) community consists of over a hundred species and the most abundant 25 comprise 99 % of the total estimated biomass and around 93% of total estimated numbers (ICES, 2008 and references therein). The most abundant species are haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, whiting Merlangius merlangus, and pout Trisopterus spp. Common flatfish species in the Celtic Seas include dab Limanda limanda, plaice Pleuronectes platessa, and several species of sole and megrim. Pelagic fish species along the shelf edge are boarfish, blue whiting, mackerel Scomber scombrus, and horse mackerel. Mueller’s pearlside Maurolicus muelleri,

7 European Commission CIRCABC website: Member State national Summaries (Article 17 reports):

https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp: National Summary reports for the UK, Ireland and France [accessed 19.02.16]

https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp



glacial lantern fish Benthosema glaciale, and lancet fish Alepisauridae are the dominant mesopelagic8 species. These pelagic and mesopelagic species are important parts of the foodweb in this ecoregion and changes in their abundance can have significant consequences for the marine food chain. Fish species with known spawning and nursery locations within the Celtic Seas include: herring Clupea harengus; plaice; whiting and cod Gadus morhua. These species, along with a range of other species including haddock, anglerfish Lophius piscatorius, saithe Pollachius virens and mackerel, are all commercially-important species in the Celtic Seas (AECOM and ABPmer, 2015b). Many of the fish species found in the Celtic Sea (OSPAR Region III) have relatively short migration routes between feeding and spawning areas and distinct stocks of the same species are recognised within the region (OSPAR, 2000). Elasmobranch species include the protected basking shark Cetorhinus maximus and the endangered common skate Dipturus batis. Basking sharks are seen throughout the Celtic Sea, Irish Sea and Northern Shelf region, from April through to October, although ICES (2008) notes that the stock seems to be severely depleted (ICES, 2008). Diadromous fish which migrate through estuaries located in the Celtic Seas include the European eel Anguilla anguilla, sea lamprey Petromyzon maximus, Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, river lamprey Lampetra fluviatilis and shads (Alosa alosa and A. fallax).

Status

Several fish species have been depleted by fishing in the past and are now on the OSPAR list of threatened and declining species including spurdog Squallus acanthias, the common skate complex Dipturus spp., angel shark Squatina squatina, porbeagle Lamna nasus, and some deep-water sharks. Although there are zero TACs or prohibited listings for these species, several of them remain vulnerable to existing fisheries. Spurdog and the common skate complex are caught as bycatch in mixed demersal trawl fisheries and gillnet fisheries, and deep-water sharks are caught in the mixed deep-water trawl fishery (ICES, 2015a). The state of fish populations within European regional seas were assessed by European Member States under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Initial Assessment. Of the 363 population size assessments undertaken (of both commercially-exploited and non-commercially exploited species), 21% were considered to be in good environmental status (GES), 26% were considered not to be in good status (the majority from the North-east Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea), whilst the remaining assessments were reported as unknown or ‘other’ (classified using an alternative terminology which could not be correlated with being at GES or not) (ETC/ICM, 2014, cited in EEA, 2015). The status of commercial fish stocks within regional seas, including the Celtic Seas, is further assessed through consideration of fishing mortality (F), in relation to the level of exploitation which is considered sustainable, and reproductive capacity (also referred to as spawning stock biomass ()) in relation to a precautionary threshold level. Figure 13 shows that of the 27 commercial stocks assessed in the Celtic Seas, 30% were in GES in relation to both fishing mortality and reproductive capacity, 22% were in GES in relation to either fishing mortality or reproductive capacity, and 26% were not in GES in relation to either criteria.

8 The middle pelagic or twilight zone that extends from a depth of 200 m to 1,000 m.



Source: reproduced from EEA, 2015

Figure 13. Status of fish stocks from regional seas around Europe with respect to Good Environmental Status (GES)

The only marine fish species which was assessed under Article 17 of the Habitats Directive within the Celtic Seas was the European sea sturgeon (assessed by France), the status of which was classed as unfavourable–bad in 20139. Diadromous fish species present in the Celtic Seas are the European eel, Atlantic salmon, brown/sea trout, river lamprey, sea lamprey and Allis and Twaite shad. The status of some of these species was assessed under Article 17 of the Habitats Directive, the results of which are shown in Table 6.


https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp : National Summary for Article 17 – France [accessed 19.02.16]




Table 6. Status of diadromous fish species reported by the UK, Ireland and France

Common Name Species Name Country Status (2013) Allis shad Alosa alosa UK U2-

France U2 Twait shad Alosa fallax UK U1+

Ireland U2= France U2

River lamprey Lampetra fluviatilius UK U1+ Ireland FV France U2

Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus UK XX Ireland U2= France U2

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar UK U1= Ireland U1= France U2

* Information presented from each Member State summary report is not specific to the Celtic Seas in this study (species results from the ‘Atlantic’ region are shown). However, the status of species reported by the Republic of Ireland can be assumed to lie within the Celtic Seas.



3.2.5 Marine mammals and turtles

Description

Cetaceans Thirty-six species of cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises) occur within European waters (EEA, 2015). Several cetacean species (harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena, Risso’s dolphin Grampus griseus, shortbeaked common dolphin Delphinus delphis, bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncates, orca Orcinus orca, minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata and white-beaked dolphin Lagenorhynchus albirostris) are either present year-round or are regularly recorded seasonally within the Celtic Seas. In addition, Atlantic white-sided dolphins Lagenorhynchus acutus, long-finned pilot whales Globicephala melas, fin whales Balaenoptera physalus, sperm whales Physeter macrocephalus and beaked whales are also regularly recorded offshore from north-west Scotland (particularly along the shelf edge) (Reid et al., 2003; Clarke et al., 2010; Baines & Evans, 2012; CODA, 2009, cited in AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a).


https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp : National Summary reports for the UK, Ireland and France [accessed 19.02.16]




Seals Two seal species regularly occur in the UK and Ireland — the grey seal Halichoerus grypus and the common seal Phoca vitulina. Important breeding and foraging grounds for both species are found in the Celtic Seas (SCOS, 2013, cited in AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a). Based on data from 2011/12, the main haul-out sites for common seals in the Celtic Seas are

Scotland — the Inner and Outer Hebrides, Orkney and Shetland; Northern Ireland — County Down (particularly around Carlingford Lough, Dundrum,

Strangford Lough and The Ards) with small numbers recorded in Rathlin and the Skerries; Ireland — majority of colonies located on the west coast with only small colonies scattered on

the east coast; England and Wales — no common seal haul-out sites in the Isle of Man, England or Wales (in

the Celtic Seas).

The largest colonies of grey seals in the Celtic Seas are:

Scotland — Inner and Outer Hebrides and Orkney; Northern Ireland — most common on rugged and exposed sites of County Antrim; Ireland — the seven most important breeding areas are Inishkea group (Co. Mayo), Inishshark,

Inishgort (Co. Galway), Sturrall to Maghera (Co. Donegal), Blasket Islands (Co. Kerry), Saltee Islands (Co. Wexford), Slyne Head Islands (Co. Galway), Lambay Island and Ireland’s Eye (Co. Dublin) (Ó Cadhla et al., 2013);

Wales — the majority of pup production occurs on Ramsey Island, Skomer Island and along the north Pembrokeshire mainland coast.

Figure 14 shows the Inter-Agency Marine Mammal Working Group (IAMMWG) management units (MUs) for cetacean and seal species recorded in the Celtic Seas.

Source: reproduced from AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a

Figure 14. Management Units for marine mammals in UK waters



MUs represent the best understanding of the structure of each species’ biological populations, any ecological differences between populations, and also political boundaries (e.g. the boundary between Ireland and the UK) or the management of human activities (e.g. ICES divisions used for the collection of fisheries data). As such, MUs provide an indication of the spatial scales at which the impacts of human activities need to be assessed for key cetacean and seal species. Figure 14 indicates that there are no discrete populations of common dolphin within the area shown, whereas there are multiple populations of bottlenose dolphin which need to be managed at different spatial scales due to their different ranges and population structure. Turtles The Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) is the only sea-turtle species that is believed to undertake deliberate, seasonal migratory movements to UK and Irish waters to feed (Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay (TLSB), 2014; Doyle, 2007). While turtles have been observed along the majority of UK and Irish coasts, records are concentrated on the west and south coasts of Ireland, south-west England, south and north-west Wales, the west coast of Scotland, Orkney and Shetland (DECC, 2015). All other turtle species are believed to reach the Celtic Seas only when displaced from their normal range by adverse currents and consequently the Celtic Seas is not considered part of their functional range (Marubini, 2010; Witt et al., 2007a, Witt et al., 2007b; University of Wales Swansea & University College Cork, 2006, cited in TLSB, 2014).

Status

Marine mammals and turtles are generally in good status in the Celtic Seas, although the status of many, particularly of whales, is unknown. ICES (2015a) reported that the populations of grey seals in the ICES Celtic Sea ecoregion have been increasing over at least the past thirty years, although the populations are becoming more stable now. Overall trends in the abundances of cetaceans and harbour seals are not known. ICES (2015a) stated that fisheries with a high risk of cetacean bycatch in the Celtic Sea are bottom set nets (bycatch of harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena) and pelagic trawls, particularly those for bass (bycatch of common dolphin Delphis delphinus). Modelling indicates that it is likely that the bycatch of harbour porpoises in gillnets on the Celtic shelf has affected population abundance at least in some past periods. Bycatch in both fisheries may have reduced in recent years due to less fishing activity and the use of acoustic alarms attached to fishing gear as a mitigation technique (ICES, 2015a). Table 7 shows the status of marine mammals and turtles in the UK, Ireland and France reported under Article 17 of the EU Habitats Directive in 2013 (species categorised as being included in ‘Marine Atlantic’ region are shown). The status reported is assessed at national level and does not relate specifically to the Celtic Seas. The results shown exclude results for species known not to occur in the Celtic Seas.



Table 7. Status of marine mammals reported by the UK, Ireland and France

Group Common Name Species Name Country Status (2013) Porpoise Harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena UK FV

Ireland FV France U2

Dolphin Short-beaked common dolphin

Delphinus delphis UK FV Ireland FV France U2

Atlantic white-sided dolphin

Lagenorhynchus acutus UK FV Ireland FV

White beaked dolphin Lagenorhynchus albirostris UK FV Ireland FV France XX

Risso's dolphin Grampus griseus UK XX Ireland XX France XX

Striped dolphin Stenella coeruleoalba Ireland FV France XX

Bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus UK FV Ireland FV France U1

Whale Minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata UK FV Ireland FV France XX

Sei whale Balaenoptera borealis Ireland XX Blue Whale Balaenoptera musculus Ireland XX Fin whale Balaenoptera physalus UK FV

Ireland FV France XX

Long-finned pilot whale Globicephala melas UK XX Ireland FV France XX

Northern bottlenose whale Hyperoodon ampullatus Ireland XX Humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae Ireland XX Sowerby's beaked whale Mesoplodon bidens Ireland XX Killer whale Orcinus orca UK XX

Ireland XX Sperm whale Physeter catodon UK XX

Ireland XX France XX

Cuvier's beaked whale Ziphius cavirostris Ireland XX France XX

Seal Grey seal Halichoerus grypus UK FV Ireland FV France FV

Common (Harbour) seal Phoca vitulina UK U2- Ireland FV France FV



Group Common Name Species Name Country Status (2013) Turtle** Leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea UK XX

Ireland XX France XX

* Information presented from the Member State summary report is not specific to the Celtic Seas in this study. The status of marine habitats reported by the Republic of Ireland can be assumed to lie within the Celtic Seas;

** Status was also reported for Loggerhead turtle and Green turtle, however, these results have been omitted as their distribution does not overlap with the Celtic Seas.



3.2.6 Birds

Description

This section refers to both marine birds and waterbirds. Marine birds are species that forage wholly or mainly in the marine environment through either diving or feeding on the water surface. These species consist of seabirds, divers, grebes and sea ducks. Waterbirds comprise coastal-living waders and waterfowl (some species of duck, geese and swan) that feed wholly or mainly within the intertidal environment, rather than birds that spend the majority of their life-history at sea (AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a).

There are over 180 species of seabirds and waterbirds that are known to regularly occur in Europe's regional seas (EEA, 2015). The Celtic Seas (OSPAR, Region III) is widely recognised as having a large number of areas that meet the main requirements of seabirds and waterfowl i.e. safe, suitable sites for breeding, an absence of mammalian predators, a supply of food close to the breeding site and good areas for feeding during the winter (OSPAR, 2000).

At least 23 seabird species breed on the coasts of the ICES Celtic Sea ecoregion. These colonies are particularly important in a global context of abundance for Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, British storm-petrel Hydrobates pelagicus, and northern gannet Morus bassanus (ICES, 2015a). Major breeding sites within Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and north-west England which hold internationally-important assemblages of breeding seabirds (>20,000 breeding individuals and which therefore qualify as SPAs) are shown in Figure 15.


https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/container.jsp : National Summary reports for the UK, Ireland and France [accessed 19.02.16]




Figure 15. SPAs holding internationally important assemblages of breeding seabirds in Scotland, Northern Ireland, north east England and Wales



Important coastal seabird breeding colonies in Ireland, which are occupied by one or more species exceeding 1% of the EU and/or UK and Ireland population are (Mackay et al., 2004):

South-east Ireland: Rockabill, Lambay Island, Ireland’s Eye, Lady’s Island Lake, Little Saltee, Great Saltee, Keeragh Island;

South-west Ireland: Sovereign Island, Scarrif Island, Little Skellig, Skellig Michael, Puffin Island, Inishvickillane, Inishnabro, Inishtearaght, Inishtooskert, Cliffs of Moher, Deer Island; and

North-west Ireland: Inishark, Duvillaun Ilsands, Inishglora, Illaunmaster, Ardboline, Horn Head, Inishtrahull.

Key sites for seaducks, divers and grebes include the Solway Firth, the Firth of Clyde, Outer Hebrides, and Belfast Lough, Dundalk Bay and Liverpool Bay.

Principal overwintering sites for waterbirds include (from AECOM and ABPmer, 2015a):

Scotland - The Solway Estuary; Northern Ireland - Strangford Lough and Lough Foyle; Ireland - Dundalk Bay, Wexford Harbour and Slobs, Dublin Bay, Lough Swilly, Cork Harbour

and Rogerstown Estuary; North west England - Ribble Estuary, Morecambe Bay, Mersey Estuary and Duddon Estuary; Wales - Cleddau Estuary and Dee Estuary in Wales.

The variation in habitats (from coastal to shelf break and deep seas) mean that the ICES Celtic Sea ecoregion is also used during the non-breeding season by many further species and by seabirds that breed elsewhere (ICES, 2015a).

Status

Two species of seabird are classed as threatened and/or declining in the Celtic Seas (OSPAR Region III) - Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) and Roseate tern (Sterna dougallii). The main threats to these species are listed as:

Balearic shearwater — hazardous substances, oil pollution, removal of target and non-target species, predation, loss of prey species and threats outside the OSPAR area; and

Roseate tern — habitat loss, loss of prey species and threats outside the OSPAR area. The abundance of breeding seabirds in the ICES Celtic Seas ecoregion has shown a broad downward trend since the early 2000s (ICES, 2015a). The OSPAR Ecological Quality Objective (EcoQO) indicator target for seabirds is for 75% of the species monitored (in the OSPAR region or sub-division) to be within their species-specific target levels. The EcoQO target for seabird population trends was not achieved in the Celtic Seas (Region III) between 2005 and 2012 (EEA, 2015) (see Figure 16). The causes of the seabird population declines are likely to be due to climate change and fishing activities (affecting seabird food supply), but further work is required to fully understand the causes of the declines (EEA, 2015). Longline fisheries pose the greatest threat to seabirds offshore, while inshore net fisheries may catch diving species. Bycatch of great shearwaters Puffinus gravis has been reported from the hake longline fishery on the Grand Sole fishing bank, and longline fisheries in waters west of Scotland would likely catch northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis. (ICES, 2015a).



Reproduced from EEA, 2015

Figure 16. The percentage of species in the Celtic Sea region that were within target levels of abundance during 1986–2012

3.2.7 Quality status of the Celtic Seas

In 2000, the OSPAR Quality Status Report (QSR) (OSPAR, 2000), concluded that the quality status of the Celtic Seas was generally good. However, issues of high importance were: effects of localised pollution in urban estuaries, critical depletion of some fish stocks, hormone disruption due to hazardous substances, extensive coastal development and the effects of climate change. The 2010 QSR report (OSPAR, 2010) presented summary statistics and improvements (Table 8).

Table 8. 2010 QSR (OSPAR, 2010) summary statistics

Pressure Related Statistic Eutrophication problem area 0.1% Monitored sites with unacceptable status

Mercury PAHs

24% 61%

Species under threat 23 Habitats under threat 11 MPA coverage 3.5% Key pressures on the environment related to fishing had decreased (since 2000), whilst pressure from coastal activities had increased. The OSPAR list of threated and/or declining habitats and species, which provides an overview of the biodiversity in need of protection in the North-East Atlantic includes 23 species (1 invertebrate, 2 bird, 16 fish, 1 reptile, 3 mammals) and 11 habitats (4 coastal habitats, 4 shelf sea habitats and 3 deep sea habitats) found within the OSPAR Celtic Sea region (OSPAR, 2010).



Specific improvements in the quality status of the Celtic seas in 2010 were: a reduction in radionuclides (discharged from the nuclear sector), a reduction in TBT (the Celtic Seas had the greatest proportion of monitored sites with acceptable TBT levels although some problem areas close to harbours and busy shipping lanes persist) and an improvement in the structure of demersal fish communities, particularly in the north of the Celtic Seas region (OSPAR, 2010). Areas of ongoing concern in the Celtic Seas in 2010 were:

Damage to seabed habitats; Increasing pressure from human activities; Low stock status of some fish species; Poor knowledge of the status of marine mammals; Hazardous substances unacceptable at some coastal locations (heavy metal, PAH and PCB) High levels of litter.

The EEA (2015) report states that Europe’s seas cannot currently be considered to be in a healthy state. Overall (and not specific to the Celtic Seas), 80% of the species and habitats assessments under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) are categorised as 'unknown', and only 4% have achieved the 2020 target of 'good' status. For the species and habitats that are known, 2% are considered in 'bad' status, and 14% are reported as being in 'other' status (EEA, 2015).

3.3 Ecosystem goods and services

Ecosystems provide benefits to human populations, underpinning many key economic activities as well as supporting the underlying ecosystem processes on which we depend. Benefits from ecosystems are often described in terms of the ‘goods’ (tangible) and ‘services’ (intangible) that humans obtain from ecosystems. Examples include products such as food and water, regulation of floods, soil erosion and disease outbreaks, and non-material benefits such as recreational and spiritual benefits in natural areas. The framework for ecosystem services used in this report is the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA) Conceptual Framework (2011) shown in Figure 17.

Source: Adapted from UK NEA, 2011

Figure 17. Ecosystem services and goods and benefits for coastal and marine ecosystems



This framework shows the biotic (habitats and species) and abiotic components (e.g. sea water, substratum) which comprise the marine ecosystem. The ecosystem structure combines with key ecological processes and functions12 (e.g. production, food web dynamics, hydrological processes) to produce intermediate and final ecosystem services13, the latter of which can lead to goods (benefits) for human use or survival (Turner et al., 2014). The different categories of ecosystem services are defined as:

Supporting services e.g. primary production, nutrient cycling, water cycling; Regulating services e.g. climate regulation, natural hazard protection (flood regulation), water

purification (clean water and sediments); Provisioning services e.g. food, raw materials; and Cultural services e.g. aesthetic, spiritual, recreational and other non-material benefits.

The intermediate supporting service ‘production’ relates to the production of plant (primary) and animal (secondary) biomass and provides the basis of the ecological food web. Primary production is highest in shallow seas, where nutrients are recycled in well-mixed shelf waters, nutrients run off from the land and/or in coastal areas where light levels are highest, fuelling phytoplankton biomass. High productivity is also associated with upwelling zones (fronts) which bring nutrient-rich deep water to the surface. Such areas in the Celtic Seas include the Irish Shelf Front (the main oceanographic front in the NE Atlantic region) that occurs to the south and west of Ireland, tidal mixing and thermo/saline fronts (the Ushant Front in the English Channel, the Celtic Sea front at the southern entrance to the Irish Sea, and the Islay Front between Islay and the coast of Northern Ireland) and areas where moderate tides and uneven bottom topography have a considerable mixing effect, for example around the Hebrides (ICES, 2008). The habitats and species supported by these ecological processes in the Celtic Seas are described in Sections 3.2.2 to 3.2.6. Recent trends in the Celtic seas pelagic ecosystem are also described in Section 3.2.2 and have potential implications for food web dynamics, potentially influencing the availability of food resources for higher trophic levels including fish, marine mammals and birds. Other important intermediate ecosystem services include supporting services such as nutrient cycling and regulating services such as carbon sequestration. For example, pelagic (water column) habitats support the fixation of carbon, nutrient cycling, primary and secondary production, detoxification of pollutants and maintenance of biodiversity (EEA, 2015). Climate regulation occurs through carbon storage and sequestration, for example, by seaweeds, seagrass and saltmarsh. Intertidal habitats such as saltmarsh also provide natural hazard protection against coastal erosion. Nutrient cycling, water cycling (hydrological processes) and waste breakdown contribute to the beneficial service of clean water and sediments. Important goods and benefits arising from ecosystem services in the Celtic Seas are described in Section 4 and include:

Provisioning goods and benefits: - Commercial (wild capture) fisheries; - Aquaculture (finfish and shellfish);

12 Key ecological processes and functions, such as production and nutrient cycling can broadly be considered to be

represented by the supporting intermediate services shown in Figure 48. 13 An intermediate service is one which influences human well-being indirectly, whereas a final service contributes

directly. a final service is often but not always the same as a benefit (Turner et al., 2014)



- Potential for marine biofuels (from algae); - Medicinal and cosmetic compounds (from bioprospecting) and blue technology; - Water supply – for example through abstraction of coastal water for cooling in nuclear

and power stations. Regulating goods and benefits:

- Coastal protection and flood defence; Cultural goods and benefits:

- Tourism and recreation; - Education and research.

These goods and services can be valued in a number of ways. For example, the value of provisioning goods such as food and raw materials can be estimated from their market value of (e.g. value at first sale of landed fish or aquaculture products). Regulating goods, such as prevention of coastal erosion and waste burial/removal/neutralisation may be evaluated in relation to the avoidance costs of engineered sea defences or the cost of water treatment. Cultural goods, such as spiritual and cultural well-being may be estimated from people’s ‘willingness to pay’ (assessed for example through economic analysis of market data or data from surveys). Human activities depend on ecosystem goods and services, but can also cause environmental pressures that can impact on the health of the marine environment and therefore affect the ecosystem goods and services from which the societal benefits arise. Key pressures in the ICES Celtic Sea ecoregion are described in ICES (2015a) as:

Selective extraction of species; Abrasion; Smothering; Substrate loss; and Nutrient and organic enrichment.

These pressures are mainly linked to fishing, aquaculture, coastal construction, land-based industry, maritime transport, agriculture, dredging and offshore structures for renewable and non-renewable energy sources. The impact of future projected marine sector activity on marine ecosystems services is explored further in the projected future scenarios.



4 Current Marine Activities and Pressures

4.1 Extraction of living resources

This sector focusses on the exploitation of marine living resources, through commercial fishing, aquaculture, bioprospecting and marine biofuels.

4.1.1 Overview of activity

Commercial fisheries

Commercial fisheries relates to the activity of catching fish and/or shellfish from wild fisheries for commercial profit (i.e. ‘catch sector’ activity). An estimated 1.1 million tonnes of fish and shellfish are landed each year from the Celtic Seas (annual average, 2009–2013)14. The United Kingdom landed the largest proportion (29%), or 315,000 tonnes, followed by Norway (20%), Ireland (17%) and France (11%) (Figure 18). Note that Norway’s landings are significantly influenced by catches from ICES subdivisions IIa2 and IVa, which only partially overlap the Celtic Seas, and these figures may over-represent the actual volumes caught in the Celtic Seas. The distribution of catches from the ICES subdivisions that overlap the Celtic Seas, by country, is shown in Figure 19. Landings are predominantly derived from ICES subdivision VIa (35%), off the west coast of Scotland, where there are important pelagic fisheries.

Source: ICES, 2015c.

Figure 18. Proportion of landings weight by country from the Celtic Seas, average 2009–2013

14 Based on ICES landings statistics for relevant ICES areas; landings in IIa2, IVa and VIIe pro-rated according to the

proportion of each ICES area that overlaps with the Celtic Seas.

Belgium, 1%

Denmark, 5%

Faroe Islands, 2%

France, 11%

Germany, 3%

Greenland, 0%

Guernsey, 0%

Iceland, 1%

Ireland, 17%

Isle of Man, 1%

Jersey, 0%Latvia, 0%

Netherlands, 9%

Norway, 20%

Poland, 0%

Portugal, 0%

Russia, 1%

Spain, 2%

Sweden, 0%

UK, 29%

Belgium Denmark

Faroe Islands France

Germany Greenland

Guernsey Iceland

Ireland Isle of Man

Jersey Latvia

Netherlands Norway

Poland Portugal

Russia Spain

Sweden UK



Figure 19. Landings by ICES subdivision, by country (annual average, 2009–2013)



Fishing has been an important part of the maritime history of countries around the Celtic Seas for centuries, with coastal communities developing around emerging fishing opportunities such as the herring fisheries and the distant-water fisheries for cod and other species (UKMMAS, 2010a). Following the Second World War, there was a steady uncontrolled growth of fishing and progressive advances in the design and construction of vessels, deck machinery, fishing gears and electronics (Engelhard, 2008). This resulted in increasing numbers of stocks being subjected to non-sustainable rates of fishing. Figure 20 shows the historical reported landings from ICES areas VI and VII, which broadly overlap with the Celtic Seas15. Landings were around 350 thousand tonnes until the mid-1960s, and increased rapidly in the 1970s to over 1.5 million tonnes. Landings fluctuated around this level, peaking at around 2 million tonnes in 1998 and again in 2005 and 2006. More recently, landings from the Celtic Seas have been fairly stable, around 1,100 thousand tonnes per year16 (Figure 21), with an estimated value of £1,228.4 million17, and GVA of £553 million18.

Source: ICES, 2011.

Figure 20. Historical reported landings from ICES areas VI and VII, 1950–2010.

Source: ICES, 2015c.

Figure 21. Landings reported from Celtic Seas, 2006–2013.

15 Landings figures are for a more extensive area than the Celtic Seas under consideration, due to historical landings

being reported to broader areas than they are today. 16 These figures include landings reported from ICES areas IIa2, IVa and VIIe pro-rated according to the proportion of

the ICES area that overlaps with the Celtic Seas and reflect the annual average, 2009-2013. 17 Applying average values per tonne for demersal, pelagic and shellfish from 2009-2013 from UK landings into the UK. 18 Using GVA as a proportion of landed value of 45% (the average figure for 2014 across relevant fleet segments from

Seafish economic indicators dataset, July 2016).

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500

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2,500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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200

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thou

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In 2013, there were quotas for 23 fish species in the Celtic Seas (ICES subdivisions VI and VII): anglerfish, blue whiting, blue ling, boarfish, cod, Greenland halibut, haddock, hake, herring, horse mackerel, ling, mackerel, megrims, Norway lobster (Nephrops), plaice, pollack, roundnose grenadier, saithe, skates and rays, sole, sprat, tusk and whiting (STECF, 2015). A large proportion of landings volume and value are derived from the pelagic sector, although this sector comprises a relatively small number of large vessels, compared to the more numerous and smaller vessels of the demersal sector and inshore sector. Fishing has generally progressed towards fishing at sustainable levels (fishing mortality (F) at or below levels consistent with achieving maximum sustainable yield (MSY)) in all areas of the North-East Atlantic, since 2006 (STECF, 2015). In the ICES Celtic Seas ecoregion specifically, there has been an overall reduction in fishing effort by the most used gears. Fishing mortality (F) for shellfish, demersal, and pelagic fish stocks has reduced since the late 1990s and the average F is now closer to the level that produces MSY. Out of 26 stocks, 15 are now fished at levels consistent with achieving MSY (i.e. at or below FMSY). The relative spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has also increased since the late 1990s and is now above the biomass reference points used to assess 78% of the stocks in the Celtic Sea. A number of stocks still have very low stock biomasses, namely cod Gadus morhua, haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, and whiting Merlangius merlangus to the west of Scotland, cod and sole Solea solea in the Irish Sea, and herring Clupea harengus in ICES Divisions VIa, VIIb, and VIIc (west of Scotland and Ireland). Fishing is concentrated in particular parts of the Celtic Seas, with an area of 250,000 km² affected by mobile bottom gears (annual average, 2009–2013), which equates to 27% of the area of the ecoregion (Table 9). The fishing effort from mobile bottom gears in the Celtic Seas ecoregion decreased by 35% from 2003 to 2014, resulting in a reduced spatial footprint (i.e. a reduction in area impacted) and reduced average number of times the seabed is trawled per year, over this time period (ICES, 2015a).

Table 9. Indicators of the spatial extent and concentration of mobile demersal fishing activity in the Celtic Seas ICES ecoregion

Indicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Area impacted by mobile bottom-contacting gears (thousand km²)

258 256 254 246 237

Percentage of the ICES ecoregion impacted by mobile bottom-contacting gears

28.1 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.8

Aggregation of fishing activities – percentage of the trawled area containing 90% of the fishing activity

26 26 28 26 27

Area not impacted by mobile bottom-contacting gears (thousand km²)

661 663 665 674 682

Note: Spain is not included in the data. Source: ICES, 2015b.

Figure 22 shows the intensity of seabed disturbance from mobile bottom gears (causing surface and subsurface abrasion). There are extensive demersal fishing grounds in the southern Irish Sea, western Channel and south and south-west of Ireland. Within the Irish Sea there are grounds for scallops and Nephrops. In Scotland, there are significant areas targeted by bottom fisheries in inshore waters. To the west of Ireland and Scotland, fishing can be seen to follow the continental slope. Fishing intensity decreases further offshore in the western part of the Celtic Seas due to deeper waters.



Figure 22. Bottom fishing intensity for surface and sub-surface abrasion

Data on economic value, Gross Value Added (GVA) and employment are not compiled for fisheries at the level of the Celtic Seas. However, estimates of economic performance of the EU Member States active in the North-East Atlantic region are shown in Table 10 and STECF (2015) provides estimates for the EU North-East Atlantic Fleet in 2013:

EU fleets operating in the North-East Atlantic region numbered over 16,180 vessels. The Spanish fleet comprised the largest fleet by number of vessels (6,557). Spain, Portugal, France and the UK account for the majority of the days at sea in the region.

Revenue was estimated at €2.35 billion, most of which was shared between France, Spain, UK, Portugal and Ireland.

GVA was estimated at €898 million, and after accounting for operating costs, €314 million in gross profit (data exclude several fleet segments due to missing data).

For the countries that lie within the Celtic Seas (UK, France, Ireland), employment in commercial fishing in 2013 was 10,192 full-time equivalents (FTEs) (although much of the French employment is likely to relate to outside of the Celtic Seas) on 5,686 vessels. 806,338 tonnes of fish and shellfish worth an estimated €1,340 million were landed, generating a GVA of €658 million (Table 10).



Fisheries in the Celtic Seas have an influence on GVA and employment beyond the Celtic Seas area itself. Catches derived from within the Celtic Seas may be landed to ports outside the area (e.g. in Norway, Netherlands, Fraserburgh on the east coast of Scotland, French ports outside the Celtic Seas such as Lorient and Boulogne-sur-Mer).

Table 10. Economic data on the North-East Atlantic fleet structure and economic performance for countries in the Celtic Seas (2013)

Country No Vessels

Employ-ment (Jobs (FTEs))

Fishing Days (Thousand)

Landed Weight (Thousand Tonnes)

Landed Value (€ Million)

GVA (€ Million)

Notes

Ireland (Total)

2,246 3,169 (2,804) 42.8 236 250 137

Since 2008, number of vessels has increased due to the decommissioning of larger vessels, and introduction of smaller vessels into the national fleet. Crew sizes have been limited/reduced to reduce labour costs.

Ireland (NEA region)

451 1,954 (1,634) 52

(days at sea) 216 237 107

UK (Total)* 6,428 12,022 (7,333) 394 618 882 486 Declining fleet size due to technological creep, older vessels leaving the fleet.

UK (NEA region)

2,849 7,314 (4,017) 211

(days at sea) 287 420 214

France (Total)**

7,121 10,262 (7,150) 437.3 514 1,111 577 Fleet size decreasing 2008-2014 due to decommissioning, entry barriers and natural wastage due to age.

France (NEA region)

2,386 5,883 (4,541) 319

(days at sea) 303 683 336

* Includes North Sea, Channel and North-East Atlantic. ** Includes Mediterranean, North Sea and overseas territories unless otherwise stated. It is not known what proportion of the

employment or GVA can be attributed to the Celtic Seas.

Source: STECF, 2015.

Aquaculture

Shellfish aquaculture relates to the cultivation of shellfish species (molluscs and crustaceans) in coastal/marine based aquaculture installations (i.e. on trestles, ropes, bouchot poles or in nets) or cultivated on the seabed (e.g. on-bottom cultivation). Finfish aquaculture relates to cultivation of marine finfish species in marine-based aquaculture installations (and excludes land-based marine finfish production and freshwater finfish production). Whilst aquaculture production occurs throughout the Celtic Seas, production is focussed in particular areas (Figure 23 and Table 11).



Note: spatial data for France were not available, although information from stakeholders has been represented.

Figure 23. Aquaculture locations in the Celtic Seas

Table 11. Details of aquaculture production in each country

Country Details of Aquaculture Production Scotland Both finfish and shellfish production occur predominately along the western and

northern coasts of the mainland, the Western Isles and the Orkney and Shetland Islands.

Atlantic salmon is the main finfish species produced (although rainbow trout are also farmed at sea) and mussels are the main shellfish species produced (MSS, 2015a,b).

Wales Shellfish farming occurs in the Menai Strait and Swansea Bay. Mussels are the main species produced (there is currently no sea-based finfish

production) (Welsh Government, 2015). Northern Ireland

Two salmon farms in County Antrim. The main shellfish production areas are Belfast Lough, Strangford Lough, Carlingford

Lough, Lough Foyle and Larne Lough. Mussels are the main shellfish species produced (AECOM and ABPmer, 2015b).

England Shellfish farming is focussed along the south and east coasts. Mussels are the main species produced (there is currently no sea-based finfish

production) (Cefas, 2015).



Country Details of Aquaculture Production Republic of Ireland

The majority of aquaculture is carried out along the western seaboard. The main production areas for Atlantic salmon in 2014 were the counties of Cork,

Kerry, Donegal and Galway. Shellfish (predominately oyster and mussel) production is concentrated in Cork,

Donegal and Waterford (BIM, 2015). France Shellfish aquaculture is the dominant activity (the Pacific oyster is the main species

produced). Farms are concentrated in six areas, including Brittany (FAO, 2012). Farming of cold-water finfish species such as turbot, salmon or sea trout are

concentrated in specific areas including Brittany, however, no information was available regarding whether this was sea-based or land-based production.

Recent trends in shellfish production are shown in Figure 24. It can be assumed that all shellfish production in Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and the majority of shellfish production in Scotland (there a number of farms are located on the east coast), can be attributed to the Celtic Seas The proportion of shellfish production in England which can be attributed to the Celtic Seas is not known due to data confidentiality, however, 31 out of the 65 registered aquaculture production businesses in England in 2013 were located within the Celtic Seas. Recent trends in Atlantic salmon production from Scotland (the main producer of this product in the Celtic Seas) are also shown in Figure 24. It has been assumed that all Atlantic salmon production (for consumption) can be attributed to the Celtic Seas, based on no active or in-active seawater finfish sites being indicated on the east coast of Scotland on Scotland’s aquaculture database. Recent trends in aquaculture for Ireland are shown in Figure 25. No temporal data for marine-based aquaculture were available for France, however, stakeholders advised that 4,600 tonnes were produced from marine fish farms in France, although the specific year was not stated and it was not noted whether this production was from land- or sea-based farms.

Sources: MSS, 2015a; Cefas, 2015; MSS, 2015b, DARD and Cefas data supplied 2016

Figure 24. Recent trends in UK Atlantic salmon (left) and shellfish production (right)

0

50000

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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4000

6000

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Reproduced from BIM, 2015

Figure 25. Recent trends in aquaculture production in Ireland

The most recent aquaculture production volumes and indicative value of key shellfish and finfish species are shown in Table 12. The proportion of aquaculture production in France and England which can be attributed to the Celtic Seas was not available, therefore an indicative total production volume and value of the aquaculture sector in the Celtic Seas could not be calculated. The number of staff employed in the aquaculture sector is shown in Table 13.

Table 12. Production volumes and imputed value of key aquaculture species

Region Year Species Production (Tonnes)

Imputed Value (£)

Source

Scotland 2014

Atlantic salmon 179,022 - MSS, 2015b

Mussels 7,683 9,200,000

MSS, 2015a Pacific oyster 271 1,100,000 Native oyster 19 150,000 Scallop 6 60,000 Queen scallop 1 3,000

Northern Ireland

2014 Mussels 2,866 2,866,000** DARD

supplied data (2016) and Cefas (2015) Pacific oyster 372 1,488,000**

Wales 2014 Mussels 7,940 7,940,000** Cefas

supplied data (2016) and Cefas, 2015 Pacific oyster 5 20,000**



Region Year Species Production (Tonnes)

Imputed Value (£)

Source

England* 2014

Mussels 1,534 1,534,000**

Cefas supplied data (2016) and Cefas, 2015

Pacific oyster 1,011 4,044,000** Native oyster 9 68,400** Northern Quahog (Hard clam)

11 34,100**

Manila clam 4 12,400** Cockles 5 No data

Republic of Ireland***

2014

Atlantic salmon 9,368 - BIM, 2015; stakeholder supplied information

Pacific oyster 8,640 38,000,000 Native oyster and scallop 582 3,000,000 Mussel 10,757 9,100,000

France Not specified

Not specified (marine fish farming)

4,600 No data Stakeholder supplied information

* Production tonnages are total values for England (i.e. not specific to the Celtic Seas). ** Imputed values calculated for 2014 production using estimated prices per tonne given in Cefas (2015). The imputed value

for NI mussels based on production statistics provided by DARD (April 2015) using the value of mussels grown on-bottom (£1000/tonne) in Cefas (2015). This may underestimate the value as an unknown proportion of mussels are grown off-bottom (value £1200/tonne). No information on Atlantic salmon production in NI could be provided due to commercial sensitivity.

*** Calculated from production figures per County in BIM, (2015). Salmon production excludes smolt/parr/ova.

Table 13. Employment in the aquaculture sector

Region Year Sector Total Staff FT PT Source

Scotland* 2014 Atlantic salmon 1,325 1,191 134 MSS (2015b)

Shellfish 345 175 170 MSS (2015a)

Northern Ireland

2012 Shellfish 55 - - Cefas (2015) and additional Cefas supplied data for England and Wales

2012 Atlantic salmon (marine) 10 8 2

Wales 2014 Shellfish 33 32 1

England** 2014 Shellfish 265 211 54 Republic of Ireland***

2014 2014

Salmon 127 BIM (2015)

Shellfish 1,603 France - No data No data - - * Scotland – Atlantic salmon statistics relate to the production of salmon for consumption ** Total employment within England (not specific to the Celtic Seas) *** Employment numbers calculated from BIM, (2015). Salmon statistics exclude employment in the production of

smolt/parr/ova. FT Full Time; PT Part Time

Marine biofuels

Marine biofuel relates to the cultivation of algal biomass to produce feedstock for biofuel production (e.g. biomethane, bioethanol). This sector focuses on the marine-based cultivation of macroalgae and excludes land-based microalgae production. At present, there is no commercial scale cultivation of marine algal biomass for biofuel production in the Celtic Seas. However, research into the viability of growing macroalgal biomass for bioenergy production is undertaken at a number of institutions in the Celtic Seas including:



The University of Bangor – conduct research into the large scale algal biomass/biofuel

production (Higson, 2014); Centre for Sustainable Aquaculture Research (CSAR) at the University of Swansea - research

projects relating to the use of seaweeds for biofuel and for development and commercialisation of advanced bio-products, processes and services from algae (Welsh Government, 2015); and

The Scottish Association of Marine Science (SAMS) – which led the Sustainable Fuels from Marine Biomass project, BioMara. This was a joint UK and Irish project that aimed to demonstrate the feasibility and viability of producing third generation biofuels from marine biomass (Higson, 2014). Numerous seaweed species were screened for their potential in biofuels and many were found to grow well in the waters off Scotland, including the three kelp species Alaria esculenta, Saccorhiza polyschides and Saccharina latissima (BioMara, 2013, cited in Welsh Government, 2015).

In addition, a collaborative seaweed-cultivation project (between Bord Iascaigh Mhara (BIM), the Marine Institute and the Irish Sea Fisheries Board) was undertaken between 2008 and 2011 in Ireland. The aim was to develop hatchery and cultivation techniques to produce algal biomass at pilot or commercial scale and to transfer that technology to create new business opportunities in seaweed aquaculture (James, 2010; BIM, undated). However, the project was not specifically related to production of seaweed for biofuel production. Although there are two commercial businesses producing macroalgae via longlines in France within the Celtic Seas19, both companies focus on the production of the seaweed for food/food additives and active ingredients for cosmetics and nutraceuticals rather than for biofuel production (Brinker and Sternberg, 2014). Although there is interest in commercial-scale cultivation of algal biomass for biofuel production, this sector is not proven to be economically viable and is considered unlikely to become a significant activity in the Celtic Seas in the next 20 years. As such, marine biofuel is not considered under the future scenarios assessment.

Marine bioprospecting

Bioprospecting relates to the systematic search for and development of new sources of chemical compounds, genes, micro-organisms, macro-organisms, and other valuable products from nature (World health Organisation (WHO), 2015). This sector focuses on bioprospecting in the marine environment and includes the extraction of genetic resources from marine organisms (sometimes referred to as blue or marine biotechnology20), and excludes prospecting for non-living resources (e.g. mining of mineral deposits on the seabed). Examples of commercial applications include the use of compounds extracted from marine organisms as the basis for potential cancer fighting drugs, commercial skin products, detoxification agents, anti-viral compounds, anti-allergy and anti-coagulant agents, enzymes for biotechnology applications and for use in industrial and commercial products such as antifreeze (Saunders et al., 2010). There is limited information regarding the distribution of marine bioprospecting in the Celtic Seas, possibly due to commercial sensitivity. Blue (marine) biotechnology is in the early stages of development, however, its future growth potential is considered extremely high (Ecorys et al., 2012,

19 EnAlgae website: http://interreg.bcu.ac.uk/enalgae/map [accessed 23.02.16] 20 Blue biotechnology is concerned with the exploration and exploitation of marine organisms in order to develop new

products.

http://interreg.bcu.ac.uk/enalgae/map



cited in EEA, 2015). There has been a rapid growth in the appropriation of marine genetic resources with over 18,000 natural products and 4,900 patents associated with genes of marine organisms, with the latter growing at 12% per year (Arrieta, 2010). The European industry for marine biotechnology is dominated by the United Kingdom (EEA, 2015). Estimates of future annual growth for the global marine biotechnology sector are around 4–5%, although less conservative estimates predict annual growth rates will be between 10% and 12% (Querellou et al., 2010, cited in EEA, 2015). Ecorys et al., (2012 and references therein) estimated the economic value of the blue biotechnology sector in Europe to be worth €800 million (based on the assumption of one third of global activity taking place in Europe, with the global total to be €2.4 billion). In the absence of employment data, the authors estimated the sector employment across Europe to be below 500 jobs. Despite the potential growth of the blue biotechnology sector, it is not expected to result in significant changes in activity (e.g. harvesting) in the Celtic Seas marine environment, hence bioprospecting is not considered further under the future scenarios assessment.

4.1.2 Key pressures in the Celtic Seas

Pressures arising from the exploitation of marine living resources are shown in Table 14, with key pressures highlighted in bold. Pressures from commercial fisheries are directly related to the productivity of fish stocks and fish communities, the physical impacts of gears on the seabed, and impacts on other non-target species. These impacts can lead to reduced biodiversity or other changes in marine ecosystems. The impacts of fishing on the marine environment depend in large part on the effectiveness of management measures and the efficiency, intensity and selectivity of the fishing gears as well as the sensitivity of the benthic habitats and associated communities to the pressures arising from the activity (e.g. abrasion). Key pressures from aquaculture relate primarily to biological pressures which may potentially arise from both finfish and shellfish farming and chemical changes, which are related specifically to finfish farming.

Table 14. Key pressures arising from the exploitation of marine living resources

Pressure Sector Specific Pressure

Commercial Fisheries Biological disturbance Removal of target species

Removal of non-target species Physical damage (reversible change)

Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface of

the seabed, including abrasion Other physical pressures

Litter

Aquaculture Physical damage (reversible change)

Habitat structure changes – abrasion and other physical damage (e.g. related to underwater infrastructure or harvesting operations)

Siltation rate changes including smothering




Pollution and other chemical changes

Organic enrichment (finfish) Nutrient enrichment (finfish) Deoxygenation (finfish) Synthetic compound contaminations (e.g. chemotherapeutants;

finfish) Transition elements and organo-metal (i.e. heavy metals, especially

copper and zinc, from antifoulants and micronutrients added to fish feed; finfish)

Other physical pressures

Litter

Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Water flow (tidal current) rate changes – local

Biological pressures Removal of target species (i.e. use of wild capture fish in feed; finfish) Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) Genetic modification and translocation of indigenous species (e.g. in

relation escape of farmed species and interbreeding with wild stocks or wild settlement);

Introduction of microbial pathogens Reduction in plankton levels (shellfish) Management of other species that impact on aquaculture (e.g. seals)

Bioprospecting Biological pressures Removal of target species Marine Biofuels* Physical damage (reversible change)

Habitat structure changes – abrasion and other physical damage (e.g. related to underwater infrastructure or harvesting operations)


Litter

Hydrological changes (inshore /local)

Water flow (tidal current) rate changes – local

Key sector-specific pressures indicated in bold * Expert opinion - assumed potential pressures associated with cultivation of algal biomass for biofuel, based on aquaculture

impacts Source: UKMMAS, 2010a.

4.1.3 Current and future key drivers of change

Current and future key drivers of the exploitation of marine living resources are shown in Table 15, with key pressures highlighted in bold. The main drivers affecting the fishing sector are related to balancing both the long-term productivity of the industry and the sustainability of the fishery resources (UKMMAS, 2010a). Key drivers include policy developments under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), in particular the drive to bring levels of exploitation down to levels consistent with achieving MSY, which will reduce levels of fishing, and the Landings Obligation which is being phased in for demersal stocks over the next few years. This may result in the premature closure of mixed fisheries when quota for ‘choke’ species runs out. Policy developments in other areas, such as development of offshore renewable energy generation, and implementation of MPAs that restrict fishing activity, will also impact on the sector. Key drivers for the aquaculture sector include economic development, particularly for rural communities; food security to help meet the increasing global demand for seafood as wild capture fisheries plateau; market supply and demand, technological developments to enable the industry to



move offshore to suitable sites where production can be increased and, for the shellfish sector, the availability and supply of spat/seed.

Table 15. Current and future key drivers of change of exploitation of marine living resources

Driver Details Implications Commercial Fisheries Fisheries policy – CFP Achieving exploitation rates consistent with

MSY. Reductions in fishing effort in short term to meet MSY targets, potential for longer-term rebuilding of stocks and greater productivity.

Fisheries policy – CFP Landings obligation for all Total Allowable Catches (TAC) stocks.

May result in some (especially mixed) fisheries being closed early, when quota runs out for ‘choke’ species. Fishers likely to adapt gear and fishing techniques to minimise unwanted catches, where possible, or turn to non-quota species.

Population growth Increasing human population. Greater demand for fish. Consumer preferences Consumer demands for certain types of fish

and shellfish drive fishing behaviour. There may be trends towards or away from certain fish species.

Market factors Retailer and consumer pressure for environmentally responsible seafood.

More fisheries likely to seek ecolabel certification, likely to drive technological adaptations to reduce seabed impact and bycatch levels.

Market factors Availability and price of imported fish and shellfish (from fisheries and aquaculture).

World market prices may influence profitability of Celtic Seas fisheries, and influence fishing behaviour.

Technological change Developments in technology and power. Fishing can expand into deeper waters, although this is limited by quota availability and other environmental restrictions.

Oil price Increase in oil price affects profitability, especially for mobile demersal fleet segment.

High oil price may drive technological innovation to adapt gear to increase fuel efficiency. Over the period 2008-2014 fleets have shown a declining energy consumption per landed tonne (in IE, from 363 l/tonne to 221 l/tonne). In some cases this may imply a lower level of seabed impact.

Environmental protection Designation of additional MPAs. Constraints/restrictions on areas within which fishing can be take place, especially with mobile demersal gears. Potential contribution to supporting population replenishment of target species outside MPAs.

Other marine industries Development of renewable energy, oil and gas.

Restrictions on fishing areas due to infrastructure.

Aquaculture Blue Growth (sustainable economic growth from marine industries)

Numerous EU and national strategy documents currently promote the potential for aquaculture to expand, to provide employment and income, particularly in rural and coastal communities.

EU and national administrations seeking to sustainably expand sector (finfish and shellfish).

Food security Key area for development within all UK devolved administrations and Europe due to its potential to contribute to food security.

EU and national administrations seeking to sustainably expand sector (finfish and shellfish).

Market supply Fluctuations in supply (i.e. increased or decreased production, for example, in relation to disease, biotoxins, economic climate or export restrictions).

Decreases in production - potential market opportunities for other producers. Increases in production – negative effect on market prices.

Market demand Increasing demand for shellfish in some markets (e.g. Europe, Asia).

Increased demand, although influenced by global socio-economics (i.e. economic cycles, population, incomes etc.).

Seed supply Lack of seed supply e.g. due to natural variation in availability, disease-related restrictions on movements from other areas

Potential constraint on industry expansion.



Driver Details Implications and/or policy-related management measures within designated sites preventing collecting.

Technological developments Competition for space in inshore waters is high. Technological developments required to enable industry (particularly finfish) to move further offshore, including the potential for co-location (e.g. with marine energy installations).

Increased available marine space for marine aquaculture.

Policy-related improvements in water quality (shellfish)

Achievement of Water Framework Directive (WFD) targets (and improved land management).

Increased available marine space of suitable water quality for shellfish aquaculture IF improvements occur in areas of good aquaculture potential (i.e. suitable environmental conditions).

Environmental protection Designation of additional MPAs. Potential constraints/ restrictions on areas within which aquaculture can occur.

Environmental protection Achievement of MSFD targets. Potential reductions / increases in areas available for aquaculture (if suitable environmental conditions).

Bioprospecting Research and Development Costs

The costs of development and commercialisation of products from the open ocean and deep seabed are high and the chances of success low. However, the potential value of a successful product can be great.

Linked to funding availability and possibly economic cycles.

Existing and emerging health issues

Increasing resistance to current antibiotics and the emergence of new health issues (local and global).

Increased need for novel medicinal and pharmaceutical compounds for treatment and prophylaxis.

Marine Biofuels Policy The EU Renewables Directive sets targets for

the proportion of energy to come from renewable energy sources and the Climate Change Act sets legally binding targets for the reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Increased need to assess viability of sector, particularly with respect to the energy balance of the process (energy in vs. energy out).

Energy demand and security Increasing population and demand. Opportunity for sector to help reduce reliance on imported energy if proven technically and economically viable.

Cost of other energy sources Increasing/decreasing price of fossil fuels influence the competitiveness of renewable energy.

Linked to economic cycles.

Technological advances To overcome current technical constraints. Opportunity for sector if proven economically viable.

Growth in other marine sectors Integrated Multi-trophic Aquaculture21 (IMTA) is an area of interest and potential growth, which may provide additional biomass for biofuel production.

Opportunity for sector if IMTA developed and marine biofuels proven technically and economically viable.

Environmental protection Requirements to achieve MSFD targets, Potential increased opportunity for sector where beneficial ecosystem services are proven. (e.g. with respect to improved water quality through IMTA).

Environmental protection Designation of additional MPAs. May restrict areas in which cultivation may occur.

Conflict with other sectors Competition for space with other marine users.

May restrict opportunities for sector.

Co-location with other sectors Ability to utilise existing or future infrastructure of other sectors.

May increase the available space for the growth of this sector, if proven technically and economically viable.

21 Aquatic cultivation whereby the waste products from one species provide an input (e.g. feed or fertiliser) for another

species



4.2 Non-living resources

This sector focusses on the exploitation of non-living marine resources, through marine aggregate extraction. Marine aggregates are a mixture of natural sands and gravels used in construction and civil engineering, derived from marine sources. Marine aggregates are essential minerals, and are mainly used in concrete, for example for the construction of homes, schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and also ‘as dredged’ for the replenishment of beaches and the protection of coasts from erosion and flooding (MMO, 2013).


Marine aggregate extraction only occurs where there are commercially viable sand and gravel resources present on the seabed, the distribution of which are limited by the geological processes that formed them. There is therefore a practical limit to the extent and location where marine aggregate extraction can occur across the Celtic Sea region. Within the Celtic Seas, marine aggregate extraction occurs off south Wales and the Bristol Channel (referred to by the UK industry as the South West region), off north Wales and the Liverpool Bay area (referred to by the UK industry as the North West region) and off Brittany in France (The Crown Estate and BMAPA, 2015; ICES, 2012). The current licensed, option, application and exploration areas22 in the Celtic Seas are shown in Figure 26. There is currently no commercial marine aggregate extraction in Scotland, Northern Ireland or the Republic of Ireland. In 2014, a total of 1.61 million tonnes (about 9% of the UK total) was extracted from the Celtic Seas (Figure 27), comprising 0.52 million tonnes from the north-west region of England and 1.09 million tonnes from the south-west region of England. No extraction occurred from the three licensed sites off Brittany. The sector directly employs office staff (shore support and administration) and marine staff (ship crew) whilst additional sector-related employment includes staff on wharves which receive aggregates and staff related to primary delivery of the product (BMAPA, 2015; MMO, 2013). In 2014, it is estimated that the sector directly employed 37 staff and indirectly created 104 jobs in the Celtic Seas, assuming 9% of the total number of UK jobs occurred in the area. In 2012, the GVA of the UK sector was estimated to be £0.1 billion (MSCC, 2015). Based on 10% of the total volume of marine aggregate extracted in the UK in 2012 coming from the Celtic Seas region, it can be estimated that the GVA of the sector in the Celtic Seas in 2012 was about £10 million. The minerals product sector (which includes marine aggregates) acts as a significant enabler for employment and economic growth in other industries such as the construction industry. For example, approximately 13% of all the primary aggregate used by the concrete and concrete products sector in Great Britain (which represents a value of £4.8 billion and supports 30,000 jobs) was supplied by marine aggregates. Hence the marine aggregates sector in the Celtic Seas directly supported

22 Licence Area: A site where the landowner (The Crown Estate) has issued commercial production agreement to a

dredging company to extract aggregate from a prescribed area of seabed following the award of a suitable regulatory consent – a marine licence – awarded by either the Marine Management Organisation or Natural Resources Wales. Option Agreement: A limited duration licence issued by The Crown Estate for the rights to develop an aggregate licence within an accepted tender area. Application Area: an area within which a marine aggregate producer has identified commercially viable aggregate resources, has secured an exclusive option with the mineral owner (normally The Crown Estate) and for which a permission to dredge is being sought. Prospecting Licence: A limited duration licence issued by The Crown Estate for exploration (prospecting) of the seabed within an accepted tender area.



£624 million value and 3,900 jobs in that sector. In Wales, the construction sector is worth £3.1 billion and supports over 88,000 jobs. In South Wales, where a large proportion of the construction activity occurs, marine supplies represent around 90% of all fine aggregate (sand) used by the construction sector (Mark Russell, BMAPA, pers. comm.).

Figure 26. Marine aggregate licensed, application, option and exploration areas within the Celtic Seas



Source: BMAPA, 2015

Figure 27. Recent historical extraction volumes of marine aggregates

4.2.2 Key pressures

Pressures arising from marine aggregates sector are shown in Table 16, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 16. Key pressures arising from the marine aggregates sector

Pressure Sector-Specific Pressure

Physical damage (reversible change)

Habitat structure changes - removal of substratum (extraction) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed

(i.e. from the pass of the dredge head) Siltation rate changes including smothering (i.e. introduction of

sediment from the screening process) Other physical pressures Underwater noise changes

Hydrological changes Water flow (tidal current) changes – local including sediment transport considerations

Key pressures indicated in bold

Source: UKMMAS, 2010a

0

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Celtic Seas




The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the marine aggregates sector within the Celtic Seas include: construction demand; large scale infrastructure project demand; and regulatory framework and government investment. More details on drivers of change within the marine aggregates sector are shown in Table 17.

Table 17. Drivers of change for the marine aggregates sector

Driver Details Implications

Construction demand Linked to economic cycle and public/private investment.

Demand for marine aggregates will fluctuate in response to economic cycles.

Large scale infrastructure project demand

Linked to demand for infrastructure (e.g. port expansion/development, nuclear new build and renewable energy developments).

Demand linked other sector policy drivers and economic climate.

Balance of land won versus marine aggregate

Reduced availability of land-won sand and gravel – largely through exhaustion.

Increased demand from alternative sources – including marine resources.

Technological change – dredging in deeper waters

Developments in the technology currently used within marine aggregate extraction and associated processing.

Increased area where marine aggregates can potentially be extracted.

Capacity of dredging fleet and wharf facilities

Ability of industry to deliver more marine aggregates relates to the capacity of the fleet and the wharf facilities to allow landings, processing and distribution.

Influences ability to meet increased demand (MMO, 2013).

Climate change Increased pressure on coastal areas from rising sea levels.

Growth in activities such as dredging, beach nourishment, and sand reclamation (EEA, 2015).

Environmental protection Designation of additional MPAs Potential constraints/ restriction on areas where aggregate extraction can take place.

Environmental protection Achievement of MSFD targets. Potential constraints/ restriction on areas within which aggregates can be dredged.

4.3 Energy production

This sector focusses on energy production, through the oil and gas sector, the renewables sector (offshore wind, wave and tide) and storage of carbon dioxide emissions from energy production through carbon capture and storage. The oil and gas industry relates to the exploration for oil and gas and their extraction from the environment, largely from offshore reserves. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a carbon abatement technology that combines three distinct processes: capturing carbon dioxide (CO2), transporting it to storage points, then injection of the CO2 into deep geological formations for long-term storage. The offshore renewables sector is concerned with the generation of energy through harvesting the power of the wind, wave and tides. Offshore renewable developments have associated high voltage power export cables linking them to onshore grid connections.


Oil and gas

Oil and gas activity in the Celtic Seas historically has been low, with most UK activity concentrated in the North Sea. There are four main oil and gas producing areas within the Celtic Seas, located off the northern coast of Shetland (Scotland), within the Eastern Irish Sea (England/Wales) and off the southern and north-western coasts of Ireland (Figure 28).



Figure 28. Oil and gas activity within the Celtic Seas

The first reserve began production in 1978 when the Kinsale Head gas field off southern Ireland first came on-stream. More recently, gas fields to the West of Shetland came on-stream in 2016 (Figure 29).

(Green = Ireland, Red = England/Wales, Blue = Scotland)

Figure 29. Timeline of oil and gas production within the Celtic Seas

ISouth-MorecambeI IHamilton-NorthI IFoinavenI IDaltonI IHamilton EastI IClairI IRhylI ICorribI INorth-MorecambeI IHamiltonI IMillomI IBainsI IDouglas WestI ILagganI IKinsale HeadI IDouglasI ISchiehallionI ISeven HeadsI ITormoreI IMagnusI IBallycottonI ILennoxI ILoyalI ICalderI ISolanI

1978 1983 1985 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2014 2015 2016



UK oil and gas production in the Celtic Seas has decreased since peaking in the early 2000s (Figure 30). Peak production of oil relates to production from the West of Shetland fields, whilst peak gas production was result of peak production from the Morecambe Bay fields. Data on recent production from the West of Shetland gas fields (initiated in 2016) are not yet available, but if these sites are able to produce their peak yields then an additional 5,710 million m³ gas will be produced per year, with gas production within the Celtic Seas returning to levels observed in 2008.

Source: DECC, 2016; Oil and Gas Authority, 2015.

Figure 30. Annual oil and gas production within the Celtic Seas (excluding Ireland), and as a proportion of production from the UKCS

The value of the UK oil and gas supply chain in the Celtic Seas was approximately £2.3 billion in 2014/5, whilst employment equated to approximately 22,500 people (direct, indirect and induced employment). GVA for the oil and gas industry in the UK was estimated at £11.5 billion in 2015, of which 6% can be assumed to derive from the Celtic Seas, or £690 million. The turnover generated by the oil and gas exploration and production sector in Ireland in 2012 was €132 million, having increased by 5% between 2010 and 2012. GVA for the oil and gas sector in Ireland was estimated as €56 million, and employment in the sector was 506 FTEs in 2012. Estimates suggest that the turnover generated by the sector in 2014 was €144 million, representing an increase in activity of 10% between 2012 and 2014, with estimated employment increasing to 512 FTEs in 2014, an increase of 2%. However, GVA was estimated to have decreased by 15% between 2012 and 2014 to €47 million (SEMRU, 2012). The value of oil and gas is driven by the sale price of oil and gas, which itself is driven by levels of global demand, and the level of production (Figure 31).

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Figure 31. Oil price per barrel

Carbon capture and storage

There is no current commercial CCS activity within the Celtic Seas. Although there is the potential to store CO2 from emitters within the Celtic Seas, a lack of funding and investment mean that it is unlikely that CCS will progress in the next decade. Therefore, CCS is not considered further under the future scenarios assessment.

Renewables

Offshore wind Within the Celtic Seas, offshore wind energy developments are concentrated within the Irish Sea. The UK’s first major offshore wind farm (North Hoyle, 60 MW) began operation in 2004. There are now ten operating offshore wind farms with an installed capacity of over 2 GW within the Celtic Seas (see Figure 32 and Figure 33). An additional 900 MW of offshore generating capacity has also been consented within the Celtic Seas, due to be operational by 2019 (Renewable UK, 2015). However, a number of proposals for wind farm sites within the Celtic Seas have been withdrawn in recent years, with developers citing environmental concerns and financial constraints as reasons for these withdrawals (Renewable UK, 2016). Employment generation as a result of renewables developments is dependent on the supply chain (particularly for offshore wind equipment) and the extent to which components are manufactured in the region. Within the offshore wind sector, manufacturing has the potential to provide the single biggest contribution to GVA, with operations and maintenance the next biggest contributor (ORE Catapult, 2014). Currently, a large proportion of the materials and components for offshore windfarms are outsourced from China and mainland Europe and thus associated employment is focused outside the Celtic Seas.

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Figure 32. Windfarm capacity within the Celtic Seas

Tidal range There are currently no tidal barrages/lagoons located within the Celtic Seas. However, within the UK, the potential for tidal range energy generation has been recognised throughout the Celtic Seas; from within the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel; North Wales coast and Liverpool Bay: including the Dee Estuary, the Ribble and the Mersey; , the Wyre Estuary; Morecambe Bay; Duddon Estuary and Solway Firth (Figure 33). A Development Consent Order has been granted for a proposed tidal lagoon at Swansea Bay but construction has not yet begun. The potential for tidal range energy generation has also been identified along the Brittany coast, however, no devices have been constructed within the French waters of the Celtic Seas. With current technologies available it is considered that the tidal range in Ireland is not large enough to make a tidal barrage/lagoon economically viable. Wave and tidal stream There has been significant interest in the development of wave and tidal stream energy devices in recent times with a number of prototype devices being deployed at test sites within the Celtic Seas (Figure 33). Based in Orkney, the flagship European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) has been in operation since 2003. The ground-breaking SeaGen 1.2 MW tidal energy convertor was installed in Strangford Lough in Northern Ireland in 2008. The Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters (PFOW) were the site of the world’s first commercial-scale wave and tidal leasing round in 2010. To date, one commercial-scale tidal stream development has been consented in the inner sound of Pentland Firth and is due to become operational in 2016. Commercial-scale tidal stream developments are also being planned around Anglesey and off Fair Head in Northern Ireland. The Sabella tidal turbine located in the Passage du Fromveur, north-west France began operation in November 2015. The first tidal turbine connected to the grid in France, the turbine generates 50 MWh of electricity. The growth of wave and tidal stream devices over the next 30 years is not expected to be significant within the Celtic Seas. Therefore, wave and tidal stream devices are not considered further under the future scenarios assessment.

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4.3.2 Key pressures

Pressures arising from the energy sector are shown in Table 18, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 18. Key pressures arising from the energy sector

Pressure Sector Specific Pressure – Oil and Gas Sector Specific Pressure – Renewables

Biological disturbance

Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species

Visual disturbance

Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species

Visual disturbance(Wi) Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Emergence regime changes - local, including tidal level change considerations(TR)

Salinity changes – local Temperature changes - local Water flow (tidal current) changes - local,

including sediment transport considerations(TR, Wa/TS)

Wave exposure changes - local(TR, Wa/TS) Other physical pressures

Barrier to species movement Death or injury by collision Electromagnetic changes Underwater noise changes

Barrier to species movement(Wi, TR Wa/TS) Death or injury by collision(Wi, TR, Wa/TS) Electromagnetic changes Underwater noise changes(Wi)


Changes in suspended solids (water clarity) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the

surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the

substrate below the surface of the seabed, including abrasion

Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical sediment overburden)

Changes in suspended solids (water clarity)(

TR) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the

surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the

substrate below the surface of the seabed, including abrasion(Wi, TR) Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical sediment overburden)

Physical loss (permanent change)

Physical change (to another seabed type) Physical change (to another seabed type) (Wi,

TR)


Hydrocarbon & PAH contamination. Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Introduction of other substances (solid, liquid or gas)

Radionuclide contamination. Synthetic compound contamination (incl.

pesticides, antifoulants, pharmaceuticals). Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Transition elements & organo-metal (e.g. TBT) contamination. Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

De-oxygenation Hydrocarbon & PAH contamination. Includes

those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Introduction of other substances (solid, liquid or gas)

Nutrient enrichment Organic enrichment Synthetic compound contamination (incl.

pesticides, antifoulants, pharmaceuticals). Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Key pressures indicated in bold Wi Wind; TR Tidal range; Wa/TS Wave/tidal stream



The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the energy sector within the Celtic Seas include: the global energy demand and price; developments in technology; and regulatory framework and government investment.



Global energy demand is expected to keep growing and this need will be met with a combination of oil and gas and renewable sources of production. New developments in oil and gas recovery and renewable technologies will make more marginal sites and those in deeper offshore waters more economically viable to exploit. Development in the longer term will be reliant on government policy and investment, which will influence the balance between conventional and renewable sources of energy production. More details on drivers of change within the energy sector are shown in Table 19.

Table 19. Drivers of change for the energy sector


Oil and Gas Environmental protection

Designation of additional MPAs. Potential constraints/ restriction on areas within which oil and gas can be exploited.

Licensed areas Licences for the exploration for oil and gas reserves are granted by DECC off the coast of the UK and by PAD off the coast of Ireland.

Future licensing rounds will determine areas of exploration/production.

Decreasing reserves

The UK is becoming increasingly dependent on imported energy, which is anticipated to supply about half of the UK’s total annual gas demand by 2020.

Costly and technically infeasible to extract reserves. Decommissioning to become a priority.

Oil/gas price A high oil/gas price can make reserves profitable to extract that were previously considered uneconomic. The converse applies when oil and gas prices are low.

Economically viable to extract oil/gas (if price high); uneconomic if price is low.

Technological change

For example, the development of Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques can also make it possible to increase the amount of oil extracted from a reserve. Extraction in deeper water and further offshore (function of technology and prices). Offshore shale gas extraction.

Economically viable to continue to extract oil at lower oil price or from more marginal fields.

Private Investment

Investors finding environmental constraints and technological developments hinder potential development sites.

Reduced investment in new oil/gas fields.

Legislation and policy

The push for the UK to have a competitive and secure energy market and to move towards a low carbon economy. Government investment also focused on maximising oil/gas recovery.

Decrease in government investment. Marginal reserves more economic to exploit.

Renewables - Offshore Wind, Wave and Tide EU Renewable Energy Directive

Commits the EU as a whole to generating 20% of total energy consumed by 2020 from renewable sources. Member States have individual targets to help meet this 20% overall target. UK - 15% of all of its energy from renewable

sources by 2020. Ireland - 16% to come from renewable

sources by 2020. France - 23% to come from renewable

sources by 2020.

Increased investment in renewable technologies.

National Policy France and UK have legally-binding target for reducing CO2 emissions by at least 80% on 1990 levels by 2050. Ireland plans to enable the State to move to a low carbon economy by 2050.


Restrictions on coal and nuclear power station developments

Closure of power stations – reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Demand for alternative sources of energy.

Energy security Reduce imports of energy.





Technological advances

Developments in the technology used to generate clean energy. Increased area in which renewable devices can be deployed.

Increased efficiency and changes to device size and spacing may reduce the area of seabed impacted. Expansion of renewable energy generation devices to offshore areas.

Funding Government subsidies for energy produced. Incentive for developers. Population growth

Increased population resulting in increased demand for energy.

Greater investment in renewable technologies.

Energy Efficiency Reduction in per capita consumption over time. Increased drive for energy saving technologies/efficiencies.

Cost of other energy sources

Increasing coal, oil and gas prices will result in increased demand for renewable sources of energy. Decreasing coal, oil and gas prices make renewables less competitive.

Increasing oil price increases the attractiveness of renewable energy and may increase investment in the sector. Decreasing oil price makes renewables less competitive and some planned developments may not go ahead.

Environmental protection

Assessments of proposed developments against a wider range of receptors, increased survey/monitoring effort.

Increased costs for developers.


Designation of additional MPAs. Potential constraints/ restriction on areas within which renewable devices can be developed.


Achievement of MSFD targets. Potential constraints/ restriction on areas within which renewable devices can be developed.

Grid provision/landfall sites

The full exploitation of renewable energy resources, and maximum economic benefit, is dependent on the construction and improvement of both onshore and offshore grid capacity.

The development of future renewable energy sites will be linked to growth in grid capacity.

Conflicts with other sea users

Fisheries/shipping/recreation. Constraints/ restriction on areas within which renewables can be developed.

Future leasing rounds

Renewable energy developments require leasing of the seabed. Custodians of the seabed play a major role in the development of the offshore renewable energy sector and associated infrastructure (e.g. subsea cables).

Future leasing rounds will determine potential areas of development.

4.4 Maritime transport

This sector focusses on maritime transport via the port and shipping sectors. Ports provide the modal interchange points by which goods and people are transported from land to sea. Within the Celtic Seas, there is a mix of port ownership which varies from country to country. Shipping provides for the transport of freight and passengers. Commercial shipping routes can be split into two distinct types: transiting vessels passing through the Celtic Seas and vessels with either their origin or destination port or anchorage within the area.


There are 32 major ports in the Celtic Seas (those with cargo volumes of at least 1 million tonnes annually plus a small number of ports with less tonnage) (Figure 34) (DFT, 2014). In 2014 around 212 million tonnes of freight were transported through the major ports in the Celtic Seas with approximately 87 million passengers travelling on either domestic ferries, short sea routes or international routes. In addition, a large proportion of shipping for other European Countries transits through the Celtic Seas when heading through the English Channel.



The Celtic Seas includes the South-West Approaches to the English Channel, which is one of the busiest shipping routes in the world with large amounts of traffic transiting to and from UK and European ports (Figure 35). By volume of traffic, the bulk of vessel movements in the South-West Approaches are cargo vessels representing 43%, followed by fishing vessels with 23% and tankers making up 16% of the total (Table 20). Within the Scottish waters sub-region the bulk of vessel movements are passenger vessels (Table 20). The highest volume of traffic transits between Stranraer, Belfast and Larne (Figure 35). A number of vessels also transit north of the Isle of Skye, bound for Orkney or the Shetland Islands. There are also multiple local passenger services in the area providing lifeline ferry services for the Scottish islands. A large number of these ferry services are run from the port of Oban meaning that it is an important port in the sub-region.

Table 20. Vessel transits in Celtic Seas by vessel type (%)

Vessel type Scottish Waters Irish Sea

West of Ireland, South Wales and South-West England

South-West Channel

Cargo Vessels 12 23 22 43 Dredging or Underwater Operations

3 3 2 1

Fishing Vessels 21 24 35 23 High Speed Craft 1 6 0 0 Military or Law Enforcement 1 2 1 2 Non Port Service Craft 2 2 0 0 Passenger Vessels 38 9 5 3 Port Service Craft 5 6 13 2 Recreational Vessels 5 4 3 4 Tankers 4 6 9 16 Unknown 8 15 10 6

Total 100 100 100 100 Source: MMO, 2014

One of the largest ports within the Irish Sea sub-region is Liverpool (see Figure 34 for locations). Other ports with high density traffic include Heysham and Barrow in Morecambe Bay and Dublin in the Republic of Ireland (Figure 35). Whilst a large number of ferry services transit between these ports, the highest proportion of vessel movements are fishing vessels (24%) and cargo vessels (23%) (Table 20). Within the west of Ireland, south Wales and south-west England sub-region the majority of vessel movements are from fishing vessels (Table 20). Major ports in this area include Milford Haven, which is one of the UK’s largest oil and gas terminals, and ports on the Severn Estuary (Swansea, Port Talbot, Cardiff, Newport, and Bristol) (Figure 34). Due to the limited availability of AIS data for west of Ireland it is difficult to comment on the shipping movements in the area.



Figure 34. Ports and harbours within the Celtic Seas



Figure 35. AIS shipping density grid23

The 2008/2009 economic slow-down had a significant effect on shipping tonnages and passenger numbers across Europe and within the Celtic Seas (Figure 36). The largest ports in the Celtic Seas have generally seen a stable level of freight handled between 2009 and 2014, with the exception of Milford Haven which has experienced a decline in freight handled since 2011, due mainly to the changing market demand for oil and gas (Figure 37). Over the past decade there has been limited change with regards ferry routes within the Celtic Seas (Figure 38). A number of services have ceased operation or altered routes, including ferries from Stranrear to Belfast (which now operate from Loch Ryan Port) and the Holyhead to Dun Laoghaire service which now operates from Holyhead to Dublin.

23 The AIS information has been translated from the ‘Mapping UK Shipping Density and Routes from AIS’ project

(MMO, 2014) which uses data collected by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA). There is a lack of data for the area west of Ireland, but shipping densities are in general much lower in this area than within the Irish Sea and in the South-West Approaches.



Source: Eurostat, 2016a

Figure 36. Shipping trend for European ports (left) and Celtic Seas ports (right)

Sources: Central Statistics Office, 2015; Eurostat, 2016a; DfT, 2015

Figure 37. Top 10 ports by freight in the Celtic Seas

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Passengers (Millions)Fr

eigh

t (M

illio

n to

nnes

)

Year

Freight

Passengers

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Passengers (Millions)

Frei

ght (

Mill

ion

tonn

es)

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Frei

ght (

Mill

ion

tonn

es)

Year

Belfast

Bristol

Clyde

Liverpool

Milford Haven

Port Talbot

Dublin

Cork

Foynes Port

Brest



Data Source: DfT, 2016

Figure 38. UK and ROI ferry routes

A number of industries are strongly related to the ports, harbour and shipping sector, for example, ship building (building and repairing of vessels), oil and gas industry, commercial fishing, maritime transport (including ferry services) and leisure moorings. Table 21 and Table 22 show the regional distribution of GVA and employment from the port, harbour and shipping industries.

Table 21. GVA – Regional Impact of the Port, Harbour and Shipping Industries

Region Direct (£ million)

Indirect (£ million)

Induced (£ million)

Total (£ million)

Scotland* 756 241.5 192.5 1,190 Northern Ireland 570 200 150 920 North and south-west England 1,630 1,590 1,220 4,440 Wales 180 320 260 760 Republic of Ireland** - - - 338 France*** - - - - * Ports on the west coast of Scotland handle 35% of the freight tonnages of Scottish ports. Oxford Economics (2015) values

for Scotland have therefore been pro-rated by this amount. ** Values from SEMRU (2012) Only total GVA was available for Republic of Ireland *** No data regarding GVA for French ports, harbours and shipping in the Celtic Seas were available

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pass

enge

rs (T

hous

ands

)

Year

Cairnryan - Belfast

Cairnryan - Larne

Liverpool - Belfast

Stranraer - Belfast

Troon - Larne

Heysham - Douglas

Liverpool - Douglas

Pembroke Dock - Rosslare

Fishguard - Rosslare

Holyhead - Dublin

Holyhead - Dun Laoghaire

Liverpool - Dublin

Portsmouth - Bilbao

Portsmouth - Santander

Plymouth - Roscoff

Plymouth - Santander



Table 22. Employment – Impact of the Ports, Harbours and Shipping Industries

Region Direct Indirect Induced Total Scotland* 14,945 4,795 3,850 30,065 Northern Ireland 11,300 3,900 3,000 18,200 North and south-west England 26,100 31,900 24,600 82,600 Wales 4,500 6,500 5,200 16,200 Republic of Ireland** 3,978 - - 3,978 France*** 1,008 3,121 2,113 6,242 * Ports on the west coast of Scotland handle 35% of the freight tonnages of Scottish ports. Oxford Economics (2015) values

for Scotland have therefore been pro-rated by this amount. ** Values from SEMRU (2012) Only figures for directly employed people were available for Republic of Ireland *** Values from Ministère De L’écologie, Du Développement Durable Et De L’énergie (2012) have been adjusted to reflect the

proportion of GVA and employment deriving from regions relevant to the Celtic Seas. The Port of Brest handles approximately 2.4% of the freight tonnages of French ports. Values have therefore been pro-rated for this amount.

4.4.2 Key pressures

Pressures arising from the transport sector are shown in Table 23, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 23. Key pressures arising from the transport sector

Pressure Sector Specific Pressure Physical loss (permanent change)

Habitat loss and damage (from port construction and maintenance dredging)


Noise impacts Death or injury by collision Litter

Biological pressures Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) (from

ballast water) Potential spread of NIS or toxins from dredge material.


Synthetic compound contamination (incl. pesticides, antifoulants, pharmaceuticals). Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Key pressures indicated in bold Source: UKMMAS, 2010a


Drivers of change within the transport sector are shown in Table 24.

Table 24. Drivers of change for the transport sector


Global consumption patterns Linked to economic cycle. Demand for maritime transport will fluctuate according to economic factors.

Globalisation of trade Increasing globalisation of markets. Greater physical flows of goods. Increasing levels of production in developing countries and shipment to developed countries. Higher levels of imports and lower exports in developed countries.




Technology Staff costs drive the progress of more automation on board ships and at ports.

Technological advancements lead to a reduced need for personnel on ships and in ports.

Freight costs Increases with fuel and staff costs, forced to decrease due to high competition, sometimes higher costs are absorbed by the shipping company.

Higher freight costs could lead to a reduction in shipping, although as the UK and Ireland are islands they are very dependent on imports via the sea. Fluctuations with currency exchange rates can also affect freight rates meaning that this also has links to economy

Port infrastructure Changing needs for shipping and other related industries drives the need for construction and upgrading of port infrastructure.

Ports required to expand or change infrastructure capabilities and port diversification to handle changes in shipping and other sectors. Large outlay of finance in order to facilitate this.

Economies of scale Larger ships means that freight prices can be reduced due to lower unit costs. Larger ships require deeper water channels and larger, better-equipped berthing facilities. Larger ships also provide lower levels of emissions per unit of cargo transported.

Requirement for increased depth of dredging in channels and berths, possible widening of channels, and extension of port quays could lead to habitat loss and hydrological changes.

Opening of the Arctic route Increased temperatures will lead to the Arctic route being open for a larger proportion of the year. This could lead to a larger number of ships transiting through and using ports in the Celtic Seas.

Increased vessel traffic and use of ports, especially favouring deep-water ports located towards the north of the Celtic Sea area.

Competition Higher competition could force reduction in freight rates. In order to compete, shipping would have to lower and possibly absorb more of the costs. This could lead to shipping companies becoming unprofitable.

Less profit made on shipping and so a smaller GVA. Companies may hire from countries with a cheaper workforce leading to less jobs being made available to UK and Ireland.

Climate change Climate change could lead to increased flood risk at ports and increasing frequencies of inclement weather would mean more periods of limited operations and weather downtime.

Ports would be reliant on weather windows in order to carry out operations and would need to invest more heavily in flood defences.

Environmental protection New regulations being brought in to reduce pollution from the shipping and port industry. From January 2015, the requirement to burn fuel with a sulphur content of less than 0.1% in the Emission Control Areas (ECAs) (currently the Channel, Baltic and North Sea and around the coast of North America) was brought into force.

Low sulphur fuels with higher costs leading to higher freight rates.

Environmental protection Invasive aquatic species present a major threat to the marine ecosystems, and shipping has been identified as a major pathway for introducing species to new environments. The Ballast Water Management Convention, adopted in 2004, aims to establish standards and procedures for the management and control of ships' ballast water and sediments (IMO, 2004). Once the Convention comes into force, all ships in international traffic will be required to manage their ballast water and sediments to a certain standard, according to a ship-specific ballast water management plan. All ships will also have to carry a ballast water record book and an international ballast water management certificate.

New systems of ballast water management and reporting procedures, leading to difficulties for smaller ports without reception/treatment facilities and for existing shipping fleets needing to retro-fit filtration systems. Increased costs for shipping operators/owners leading to higher freight rates. Short sea shipping operators may be forced out of the market due to cost leading less jobs within the sector.



4.5 Tourism and leisure

This sector focusses on tourism and leisure, including recreation, in the coastal and marine environment. Tourism and recreation are two distinct but interlinked sets of activities. Tourism refers to activities undertaken outside of an individual’s usual living environment, whereas recreation activities can take place both within and outside of an individual’s usual living environment (Figure 39). Therefore, only recreational activities undertaken outside of the usual environment can be considered a subset of tourism activities.

Source: European Commission – DG Environment, 2011

Figure 39. Relationship linking tourism and recreation

Marine recreation can be defined as all recreational activities that make use of the marine environment. It covers a range of activities including recreational boating, rowing, water skiing/wakeboarding, windsurfing, kayaking, surfing, kitesurfing, scuba diving, recreational angling, coasteering, coastal swimming and marine wildlife watching. Marine recreation may be undertaken by tourists and non-tourists. Marine tourism can be defined as tourism activities undertaken by tourists in the marine environment. It includes tourism activities linked to the marine recreation activities identified above, but also other marine and tourism related activities such as cruise tourism and coastal tourism. Coastal tourism can be defined as activities undertaken by tourists in coastal locations (i.e. adjacent to the marine environment). It encompasses an even wider range of activities including: accommodation, food and drink, retail, libraries, museums and other cultural activities, visitor attractions and amusements as well as recreational activities undertaken by tourists (including ‘land-based’ recreation in the coastal environment such as coastal walking, cliff climbing and spending general leisure time at the beach). There are also ancillary activities that support marine recreation and other tourism activities. These include:



For marine recreation: the construction, maintenance and operation of marinas, moorings, slipways and artificial reefs; building, maintenance and repair of boats; manufacture of sports equipment; operation of sport, transport and beach facilities; and renting and selling of sports goods and equipment.

For tourism: event catering activities; passenger transport; the renting and leasing of cars; recreational goods, sports goods and water transport equipment; creative arts and entertainment activities; and gambling and betting activities (UKMMAS, 2010a).


The breadth and scale of marine recreation activities is significant according to the UK watersports participation survey. More than 13 million UK residents are estimated to have participated in watersports activities in 2014 through a total of 253 million experiences (trips), of which 229 million took place in coastal areas. The most common activities undertaken in coastal areas were: spending leisure time at the beach; coastal walking; coastal swimming; recreational boating; sea angling and surfing. There is a lack of spatial data relating to many of these activities. Most activities are widespread, although there are particular concentrations of activities around the south-west of England, south Wales, north Wales and the north-east of England. This concentration of activity is shown in Figure 40 for RYA sailing areas and cruising routes; there are also sailing areas in Brittany, France, and in Ireland around Dublin, Cork and Galway (Figure 41).

Figure 40. Spatial distribution of recreational boating activities



Figure 41. Visitor days, blue flag beaches, sailing areas and coastal world heritage sites



Marine recreation activities are typically concentrated around marinas and/or beaches, both of which provide safe points of access to the water. There are estimated to be 140 coastal marinas in the Celtic Seas, providing a total of 27,000 berths for leisure boats24. There are also estimated to be 902 beaches in the Celtic Seas, including 124 Blue Flag beaches (Figure 41). The spatial distribution of these marinas and beaches provides a good indication of the distribution of marine recreation activities. The spatial distribution of marine and coastal tourism can be illustrated using a number of different indicators. Figure 42 shows that almost 70% of the marinas, berths and tourist nights spent in coastal areas within the Celtic Seas are in the UK (as opposed to Ireland or France), as are almost 90% of beaches.

Sources: Eurostat (2016b). British Marine (2014), Ecorys (2014), www.portbooker.com, www.blueflag.global,

http://www.finisterebrittany.com/beaches, www.thebeachguide.co.uk (all accessed February 2016)

Note: UK and France data are the closest available approximations for the Celtic Seas: marina/berth data are based on the UK’s Atlantic coast (as stated in Ecorys, 2014) and France’s Celtic Seas coast (between Douarnenez and Saint-Pol-de-Léon); beach data are based on the UK and French Celtic Seas coasts as defined in Figure 2; and data for tourist nights are based on NUTS-2 regions (in the UK this relates to coastal NUTS-2 regions from Dorset in the south to the Highlands and Islands in Scotland; in France it relates to Bretagne and therefore extends beyond the Celtic Seas).

Figure 42. Distribution of marinas, berths and tourist nights in the Celtic Seas

Maritime and coastal tourism is estimated to support €183 billion of GVA and 3.2 million jobs in the EU (or €168.5 billion of GVA and 2.9 million jobs excluding cruise tourism) (Ecorys, 2013). Estimates of GVA and employment per tourist night, for the whole EU, have been applied to the Celtic Seas (based on the distribution of tourist nights in coastal areas). This suggests that marine and coastal tourism and recreation (excluding cruise tourism) in the Celtic Seas is likely to support €7.7 billion (£5.9 billion) of GVA and 133,000 FTE jobs. Leisure boating activities in the Celtic Seas are estimated to directly support €870 million (£670 million) of GVA and 20,500 FTE jobs. However, a larger value is associated with the more common activities of spending time on the beach and coastal walking, due to the higher levels of participation. Cruise tourism in the EU supported direct expenditures of €16.6 billion, 349,000 FTE jobs and incomes of €10.8 billion in 2014 (CLIA, 2015). At least 190,000 cruise passengers visited Ireland in 2014, 10,000 visited Brest in France, and 220,000 visited the UK’s Celtic Sea coast (www.cruiseeurope.com, accessed 22 March 2016). Estimates of economic and employment impacts per passenger, for the whole EU, have been applied to these Celtic Seas passenger estimates. It suggests that cruise tourism in the Celtic Seas is likely to support at least around €160 million (£120 million) of GVA and 5,000 FTE jobs. 24 Sources of marina data include: Ecorys (2014); British Marine (2014); and

www.portbooker.com/en/moorings/france/brittany (accessed in February 2016)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UK Ireland France

Esti

mat

ed %

of C

elti

c Se

as to

tal

Country

Marinas

Marina berths

Beaches

Blue Flag beaches

Tourist nights in coastalareas

http://www.portbooker.com/

http://www.blueflag.global/

http://www.finisterebrittany.com/beaches

http://www.thebeachguide.co.uk/

http://www.cruiseeurope.com/

http://www.portbooker.com/en/moorings/france/brittany



Coastal tourism and recreation in the Celtic Seas (including cruise tourism) is therefore estimated to support €7.9 billion (£6.1 billion) of GVA and 138,000 FTE jobs. Historic trends are unclear, due in part to the lack of comprehensive and robust data, but also due to the volatile nature of tourism activities and expenditures over time. At the total EU level, Ecorys (2013) suggests that the maritime and coastal tourism sector (including cruise tourism) has grown between 2006 and 2011 by 2.1% per annum in terms of employment and 3.7% per annum for GVA. At the UK level, VisitEngland data suggest that day visits, overnight trips and tourism expenditures on the Celtic Seas coast can vary significantly from year to year but have been declining over the last five to ten years. Participation rates in leisure boating and other recreational activities have seen a slight decline over the last ten years. However, the declines in the rate of participation may be offset by a general increase in the size of the population. Furthermore, participation rates have been increasing in some activities such as surfing, angling, kite-surfing, cliff climbing and general leisure time at the beach. In contrast, cruise tourism has been increasing rapidly and embarkations at UK ports have increased by an average of 6.3% per annum between 2009 and 2015 (CLIA, 2016). The volatile performance of the sector makes it difficult to project future growth with any certainty. Marine and coastal tourism in the Celtic Seas and across the EU is heavily dependent on the health of national and global economies and faces increasing competition from low-cost destinations, which indicates risks of further contractions in activity in the short-term. The longer-term impacts of climate change are also unclear as coastal tourism could benefit from milder weather and a longer summer season, whereas wetter weather and an increased likelihood of storms could deter visitors and participants and rising sea levels could damage infrastructure.

4.5.2 Key Pressures

The nature and magnitude of environmental pressures created by tourism and recreational activities vary significantly between the different activities. Some activities, such as wildlife watching, have relatively minor pressures on the marine environment, while others have more significant and direct impacts, such as recreational sea angling. The tourism and recreation sector also impacts on climate change through carbon emissions created while undertaking activities involving motor boats, but also through tourists travelling to the coast to participate in activities. These travel emissions can be significant as a shortage of berths and rising berthing costs can result in boats being kept further away from home. Additional carbon emissions are also generated by ancillary activities including the construction and operation of relevant infrastructure and activities and the manufacture and distribution of equipment for recreational use. Pressures arising from the tourism and leisure sector are shown in Table 25, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 25. Key pressures arising from the tourism and leisure sector

Pressure Sector Specific Pressure – Coastal Protection and Flood Defence

Biological disturbance Genetic modification & translocation of indigenous species Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species Visual disturbance

Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Emergence regime changes - local, including tidal level change considerations

Water flow (tidal current) changes – local, including sediment transport considerations

Wave exposure changes – local




Other physical pressures Death or injury by collision Introduction of light Litter Underwater noise changes


Changes in suspended solids (water clarity) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface of

the seabed, including abrasion Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical

sediment overburden) Physical loss (permanent change)

Physical change (to another seabed type)



Drivers of change within the tourism and leisure sector are shown in Table 26.

Table 26. Drivers of change for the tourism and leisure sector


Health of the economy The future growth and stability of the tourism and recreation sector is heavily dependent on the general health of the economy.

Tourism and recreation activities are non-essential purchases and are therefore relatively vulnerable to economic changes and pressures and changes in disposable incomes.

Competition from other coastal tourism destinations

Coastal tourism in the Celtic Seas (and the rest of the EU) faces increasing competition from other coastal destinations, and particularly from low-cost destinations outside the EU.

Many destinations are becoming more accessible and affordable and this is increasing price competition and restricting the growth and value of tourism and recreation.

Provision of storage and access to the water

Future growth in the sector is dependent on the supply and cost of infrastructure / services to meet demand from participants and enable them to gain access to the water and recreational equipment. These services / infrastructure include marina berths, moorings, slipways, anchorages, club facilities, and training provision.

Restrictions on the potential growth of recreational boating (and other activities that use these services and infrastructure to access the water) in areas with unmet demand. For example, an inability to match the supply and cost of marina berths with demand from boat owners can restrict growth in some areas. Conversely, areas with capacity can benefit as a result (e.g. some boat owners in the south of England have found it more cost-efficient to keep their boat on the West Coast of Scotland or Ireland).

Investment Marina developments typically require large investments and are often financed with public funds. Recent economic conditions have restricted investments from both public and privates sources.

Restricted opportunities for developing new marinas.

Population growth and an ageing population

An ageing population has more leisure time and is more likely to participate in tourism and recreation activities outside of the peak summer season, thereby helping to address seasonality issues.

This is likely to have a positive impact on the demand for recreational activities.




Demand for activity-based tourism

Activity-based tourism provides an opportunity for coastal destinations to differentiate and add value to their tourism offer. These activities also tend to be less seasonal in nature.

This is likely to have a positive impact on the demand for recreational activities and provides opportunities to address seasonality issues that face many coastal locations.

Technological advances Technology can drive growth in marine recreation activities. For example, new technologies have improved the targeting of fish and increased catch rates, thereby increasing the demand for sea angling, while advances in wetsuit technology have helped to extend participation in watersports outside the peak summer season.

Growth in marine recreation activities.

Health of the environment Tourism and recreation activities are heavily dependent on the health of the marine environment and are generally more attractive in a healthy environment. For example, swimming and beach activities are more popular on Blue Flag beaches, while healthy and abundant wildlife are important for angling and marine wildlife watching activities.

This highlights the importance of ensuring the environmental pressures of tourism and recreation activities do not cause damage to the environment or restrict future demand for tourism.

Marine conservation zones (MCZs) and Natura 2000 sites

MCZs and Natura 2000 sites have the potential to displace some activities, such as recreational boating and sea angling. Conversely, MCZs and Natura 2000 sites could provide increased opportunities.

Restrictions may reduce the attractiveness and demand for activities in particular locations. Sites located near to MCZs and Natura 200 sites may provide increasing opportunities for e.g. scuba diving and wildlife watching.

Climate change Climate change is expected to cause: increases in sea and air temperatures; increases in sea levels; and increases in precipitation and the severity of storms in the Celtic Seas. Climate change could therefore have positive and negative impacts for tourism and recreation.

Increases in air and sea temperatures could support increased coastal tourism and participation in recreation activities. It could also affect the habitats and movements of marine wildlife, which could have impacts for wildlife tourism, although the scale and direction of these impacts are poorly understood. However, increases in sea levels, precipitation and the severity of storms threaten to damage to coastal infrastructure and recreational craft, deter visitors and increase the short-term dangers for participants of recreation activities.

4.6 Land-based activities

This sector relates to the land-based activities of coastal defence and waste disposal, which influence the marine environment. Coastal protection and flood defence measures are used to prevent or reduce flood risk and coastal erosion. Examples of coastal and flood defences include groynes, sea walls and embankments, termed ‘hard engineering’, and beach replenishment, managed retreat and coastal realignment, termed ‘soft engineering’. The marine environment is also used for the disposal of liquid waste generated at sea or on land. It also receives contaminants discharged to rivers or which enter water courses as a result of diffuse pollution.




Coastal protection and flood defence

Both hard and soft flood protection and coastal defence assets are generally located in or adjacent to intertidal areas and therefore their extent is limited to a narrow margin around the coastline (Figure 44). Hard engineering defences, such as sea walls, groynes and rock armour, tend to be expensive and have a high impact on the environment. Soft engineering options, such as beach replenishment and managed realignment, are often less expensive than hard engineering options with less impact on the environment. The demand for flood and coastal defences is dependent on the value and importance of terrestrial infrastructure near the coast. Where high-density residential areas or important industrial areas are close to coastlines at risk of flooding or erosion, there is a greater need for defences. The total population living in the regions adjacent to the Celtic Seas boundary totals over 25 million with the highest population densities in north-west England (Eurostat, 2010). Similarly, the north-west of England has the highest proportion of coastline protected by defence works or artificial beaches (EUROSION, 2004). Managed realignment schemes are developed to create flood storage sites and also to compensate for the losses of intertidal habitat experienced as a result of both coastal squeeze and infrastructure developments (such as tidal lagoons or ports). Data is available on overall flood and coastal defence spending from the English and Irish Governments. However, there is a lack of specific data for marine projects. Expenditure is dependent on government policy and reaction to specific flood events, e.g. 2013/2014 flood events in England (Figure 43).

Source: Defra, 2015; European Commission, 2009

Figure 43. Expenditure on flood defence and coastal protection (England and Ireland)

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Figure 44. Coastal defence works



Waste disposal

There are many hundreds of direct discharges to the Celtic Seas from land including:

Urban wastewater discharges; Surface water discharges; Combined sewer overflows (which predominantly discharge surface water but during periods

of high rainfall may also discharge sewage); and Discharges from industrial processes.

In addition, the marine environment receives pollutant loads discharged to rivers (either directly or as a result of diffuse pollution). Since the 1980s disposal at sea of radioactive wastes, industrial wastes, colliery minestone and sewage sludge have progressively been prohibited. All discharges to the marine environment are strictly regulated and significant discharges are subject to routine monitoring to assess compliance with consent conditions. Discharges to the marine environment do not generate a measurable economic value by themselves, although expenditure on waste water treatment can provide a measure of the value that society places on the activity. The capacity of the marine environment to dilute, disperse and assimilate waste can reduce the levels of treatment required for wastes prior to discharge. Beaumont et al. (2006) estimated the value of this service within UK seas to be at least £1 billion per annum. The control of wastewater discharges are fundamental to sustaining certain key economic activities, such as shellfisheries, tourism and recreation, as well as the industries which rely on making discharges to the marine environment, e.g. power stations and water and sewage companies. The provision of effective surface and waste water treatment systems also contributes more widely to ecosystem services; including flood prevention through surface water drainage and avoidance of damage to sensitive coastal and estuarine habitats due to the control of pollution through sewage treatment works. As waste disposal is unlikely to change significantly over the plan period it is not considered further under the future scenarios assessment.

4.6.2 Key pressures


Pressures arising from the flood defence and coastal protection sector are shown in Table 27, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 27. Key pressures arising from the coastal protection and flood defence sector


Biological disturbance Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Emergence regime changes - local, including tidal level change considerations

Salinity changes – local Temperature changes - local Water flow (tidal current) changes – local, including sediment

transport considerations Wave exposure changes – local




Other physical pressures Barrier to species movement Underwater noise changes


Changes in suspended solids (water clarity) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface

of the seabed, including abrasion Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical




De-oxygenation Introduction of other substances (solid, liquid or gas)


Waste disposal

Pressures arising from the waste disposal sector are shown in Table 28, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 28. Key pressures arising from the waste disposal sector

Pressure Sector Specific Pressure – Waste Disposal

Biological disturbance Introduction of microbial pathogens Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Salinity changes – local Temperature changes - local

Other physical pressures Litter Physical damage (reversible change)

Changes in suspended solids (water clarity)


De-oxygenation Hydrocarbon & PAH contamination. Includes those priority

substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC. Introduction of other substances (solid, liquid or gas) Nutrient enrichment Organic enrichment Synthetic compound contamination (incl. pesticides, antifoulants,

pharmaceuticals). Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

Key pressures indicated in bold



The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the flood defence and coastal protection sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 29.



Table 29. Drivers of change for the flood defence and coastal protection sector


Climate change Increase in sea level rise leading to coastal squeeze. Changes in frequency/intensity of storms leading to changes in wave conditions (leading to coastal erosion) and storm surges (leading to flooding).

Increased demand for flood protection /coastal defences.

Population growth Increasing need to provide homes and infrastructure, particularly near the coast

Increased demand for flood protection /coastal defences.

Coastal Management Coastal management plans (such as Shoreline Management Plans) provide a large-scale assessment of the risks associated with coastal processes and present a long-term policy framework to reduce these risks. (No National integrated coastal zone management exists in Ireland or France.)

Recommend action for each section of coastline.

Tourism Increased demand from tourists and local residents to protect beach frontages and recreational beach areas.

Increased demand flood protection / coastal defences.

Technological innovation Opportunities for engineers to develop additional, or redesign existing, coastal protection measures, whether in the form of hard engineering structures, or soft engineering practices (beach recharge and managed realignment).

Reduce costs, ease implementation.

Environmental protection Designation and management of MPAs. Potential constraints / restrictions on areas within which coastal defences can be constructed. Potential requirements to offset impacts of existing flood defences (coastal squeeze) or to compensate for impacts of new flood defences.

Funding Reductions in Government investment in coastal protection and flood defence.

Decline in new infrastructure projects.

Partnership approach to funding

Increased contributions from beneficiaries of coast protection and flood defence schemes.

Increase in new infrastructure projects.

Increasing cost of constructing and maintaining ‘hard’ coastal defences

Increases in sea level rise, put increasing strain on existing defences.

Move to ‘softer’ forms of coastal protection e.g. managed realignments (where space allows).

Waste disposal

The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the waste disposal sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 30.

Table 30. Drivers of change for the waste disposal sector


Policy Water companies are required to undertake environmental improvement schemes in order to meet European and national targets related to water.

Improvements in water quality.

Investment Investments by sewerage companies are generally determined through periodic reviews of water industry prices.

Improvements in water quality.

Society Population, housing and industry growth are likely to put increased pressure on water and sewage works.

Maintain/improve the standards of coastal waters.



4.7 Other sectors

4.7.1 Education and research

This sector relates to education and research undertaken in the marine environment.

Overview of activity

The education sector includes Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) such as universities, technical and vocational training (e.g. commercial pilotage) and leisure training classes (e.g. non-commercial sailing) (UKMMAS, 2010a). Research refers to the use of the marine environment in order to ‘increase the stock of knowledge’ (UKMMAS, 2010a), which is essential for science and policy and also for private companies to identify and exploit available resources (EEA, 2015). The research sector comprises three main categories: the industry sector, the university sector (HEIs), the public sector (UKMMAS, 2010a) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Note, research related to marine bioprospecting (including marine or blue biotechnology) is covered separately in Section 4.1. Marine-related education and research activity takes place at coastal locations throughout the Celtic Seas. Major HEIs and research institutes specialising in marine education and research are shown in Figure 45 and include:

Scotland – The Scottish Association of Marine Science (SAMS) in Oban, the University of Stirling and the North Atlantic Fisheries College (NAFC: part of the University of the Highlands and Islands) in Shetland;

Republic of Ireland – The National University of Ireland and the Marine Institute in Galway and University College Cork;

Northern Ireland – Queens University Belfast; Wales – The University of Bangor and the University of Swansea; England – The University of Plymouth; France – The University of Western Brittany (Université de Bretagne Occidentale), Roscoff

Marine Station (Station Biologique de Roscoff) and the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER) in Brittany.

The economic value of these sectors may be assessed through the GVA of the education sector or through investment/funding levels in the research sector. Estimates of value of the marine research sector in the UK were considered to be represented by Research Council spending on marine science which was £66 million in 2006/0725 and the GVA of leading UK HEI and research institutes engaged in marine research activities (£70 million, based on data ranging from 2006–2008; UKMMAS, 2010a). An indicative estimate of the proportion of these values that were associated with education and research activity in the Celtic Seas is £20 million GVA (based on the valuations from the Charting Progress 2 (CP2) regions 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 in UKMMAS, 2010a)

25 This value is known to be a substantial underestimate as it did not include European funding sources for pure science



Figure 45. Major marine-related education and research institutes in the Celtic Seas

Using the value of grant funding for the marine research sector as a proxy for turnover, marine research activity in the Republic of Ireland generated €22.7 million (approximately £17.8 million26) in 2007. In the same year, the gross value added for the marine research sector (calculated as employee income within the sector) was €5.3 million (approximately £4.2 million) (Marine Institute, 2013). In 2014, IFREMER’s (France) total income was €214.6 million and the total expenses were €211.5 million (IFREMER, 2014a). IFREMER (2014b) states that for several years, it has received €150 million direct public aid (grant for public service obligations) and €45 million of revenues from outside sources. The spending structure includes €110 million of payroll costs, €40 million devoted to the fleet (commissioning or ownership, Genavir contract), €15 million to fund laboratories and scientific teams, €15 million to finance operating costs of the centres (power, fluids, ongoing operation) and €15 million in investments. Note, these values are not limited to the Celtic Seas.

Key pressures

The key pressures associated with the marine-related education and research sector are presented in Table 31. 26 Conversion made on 23 February 2016



Table 31. Key pressures associated with marine-related education and research


Biological pressure Marine wildlife disturbance (visual and acoustic)* Removal of target species (e.g. for scientific sampling)


Litter**


Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface of the seabed, including abrasion (e.g. through trampling, clearing, smothering and other physical disturbance of marine benthic habitats).


Organic enrichment (e.g. sewage discharges)**

* Intensity likely to be low compared to the disturbance associated with leisure and tourism (UKMMAS, 2010a) ** Difficult to quantify the contribution from education and training – but likely very small (UMMAS, 2010a)


Current and future key drivers of change

The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the education and research sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 32.

Table 32. Drivers of change for the education and research sector


Policy Research to achieve environmental or policy goals.

Public funding for specific research / evidence base requirements.

Economy Current economic climate. Reduced funding for research. Private Investment Identification and exploitation of available

resources. Increased funding.

As it is unclear whether education and research activity in the Celtic Seas is likely to change significantly over the next 20 years, this sector is not considered in the future scenario assessments.

4.7.2 Military activity

The military defence sector makes use of the marine environment to provide security and protection of people and assets in the Celtic Seas. The majority of activities within the Celtic Seas are for training purposes to support military activities abroad.


Military activities occur in both inshore and offshore waters. Principal marine-related defence activities include sea transport by naval vessels and sea training. Activities relating to maritime transport are mainly associated with naval bases. Sea training is carried out within defined military practice and exercise (PEXA) training areas. United Kingdom naval bases within the Celtic Seas are Her Majesty’s Naval Base (HMNB) Clyde at Faslane in Scotland and HMNB Devonport in Plymouth. There are significant Irish coastal bases at Cork Harbour, Gormanstown and Bere Island and there is a French naval base in the Celtic Seas at the port of Brest.



Figure 46 shows that defence expenditure has declined in recent years from a high in 1996 during the height of the Iraq War and the Afghanistan Conflict.

Source: The World Bank, 2016

Figure 46. Trend of military budget for countries within the Celtic Seas

Defence activities do not generate a tangible output and therefore cannot be valued. However, one can examine the expenditure within relevant departments, e.g. the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) Navy Command which is responsible for the operation, resourcing and personnel training of ships, submarines and aircraft (UKMMAS, 2010a).

Key pressures

Pressures arising from the military sector are shown in Table 33, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 33. Key pressures arising from the military sector



- Underwater noise changes - Introduction of noise from sonar activity and the use of live explosives for training purposes

- Death or injury by collision - Introduction of moving objects (ships, missiles)

- Litter - Introduction of marine litter from spent shells and explosives Physical damage (Reversible Change)

- Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed

Physical loss (Permanent Change)

- Physical loss (to land or freshwater habitat) - Introduction of structures into the marine environment


- Hydrocarbon & PAH contamination. Includes those priority substances listed in Annex II of Directive 2008/105/EC.

- Radionuclide contamination Key pressures indicated in bold


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The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the military activity sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 34.

Table 34. Drivers of change for the military activity sector


Policy National defence policies Possible changes in activity level or location Technology Technological advances Possible changes in activity level or location Economy Available budget linked to country’s GDP Funding changes linked to economic cycles Environmental protection Potential restrictions to access or undertake

testing in designated sites Potential for reduced marine area for activities

As military activity in the marine environment was considered unlikely to change significantly over the next 20 years, this sector was not considered in the future scenario assessments.

4.7.3 Power interconnectors

The offshore electricity networks sector is concerned with the transmission of power through submarine cables, including international, national and inter-island links. This excludes power cables to/from individual developments (e.g. power supplies to oil and gas installations, export cables from offshore wind farms), which are considered under their respective sectors.


Figure 47 shows the interconnectors and transmission lines located within the Celtic Seas. A number of power cables connect the island communities of Scotland to the mainland national grid infrastructure. Scotland and Northern Ireland are linked through the Moyle Interconnector, a 500 MW High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) link which commenced commercial operation in 2002 (Elexon website). The East–West Interconnector is a 500 MW HVDC link running between Woodland, County Meath in Ireland and Deeside in North Wales which began commercial operation in December 2012. The link comprises approximately 186 km of subsea cable and 70 km of land underground cable (Elexon website). The Isle of Man to England Interconnector has an undersea section of approximately 104 km and is one of the longest alternating current (AC) undersea cables in the world. It was laid in 2000 between Bispham in Blackpool and Port Skillion in the Isle of Man (KIS-ORCA, 2016). The Western HVDC Link project is a joint venture between National Grid and Scottish Power Transmission which includes direct current subsea and underground cables, approximately 385 km long, running from Ardneil Bay in Ayrshire, Scotland to a landfall point at Leasowe on the Wirral peninsula. Work on the installation of the Western HVDC Link undersea cable began in 2014, with construction expected to be completed in 2016 (Western Link, 2016). The offshore electricity network is supported by a number of activities including construction and manufacturing. Secondary activities include the trade in electricity through the interconnectors and downstream distribution of electricity inland. The value of the cable is also considered related to the actual use of the seabed across which the cable is laid, however this is difficult to assess. Additionally if the seabed could not be used (due to geological instability, political instability or planning or other environmental restrictions), then power would have to be sourced another way. Therefore, the value of the power cable could be estimated as the value of alternative options.



Figure 47. Power cables within the Celtic Seas

Key pressures

Pressures arising from the power interconnector sector are shown in Table 35, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 35. Key pressures arising from the power interconnector sector


Biological disturbance Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species Hydrological changes (inshore/local)

Temperature changes - local


Electromagnetic changes Underwater noise changes


Changes in suspended solids (water clarity) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface of

the seabed, including abrasion Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical sediment

overburden) Physical loss (permanent change)






The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the power interconnector sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 36.

Table 36. Drivers of change for the power interconnector sector


Energy security Secure transmission of energy. Continued development of offshore electricity network.

EU and National policy Goals to create a single integrated electricity market (at EU level) and maintain the reliability of energy supplies (national level).

Potential further development of offshore electricity networks.

Technology Increases in the capacity of cables and the use of larger capacity cables over longer distances.


Growth in other energy sectors

Increased offshore network capacity requirements.


Despite being an economically valuable sector, the footprint of this sector in the Celtic Seas is relatively small and unlikely to change significantly over the next 20 years even in relation to further development of the offshore network. Hence, this sector is not assessed in the future scenario assessments.

4.7.4 Telecom cables

This sector relates to submarine telecommunication cables, which carry telephone calls, internet connections and data as part of national and international data transfer networks utilised for the majority of international communication transmissions. These cables service many other industries such as finance, commerce and media both nationally and internationally.


The first international submarine cable, a copper-based telegraph cable, was laid across the Channel between the United Kingdom and France in 1850. The first successful installation of a trans-Atlantic cable, between Ireland and Newfoundland was made in 1858. During the mid-20th century, many telephony cables were laid. From the late 1980s many fibre optic cables have been laid, which can transfer large quantities of data (Subsea Cables UK, 2016). A number of telecommunication cables run through the Celtic Seas which links the UK, Ireland and France both to each other and to the USA, Canada and mainland Europe (Figure 48). Submarine telecommunication cables carry over 95% of the world's international communications traffic including telephone, internet and data (Subsea Cables UK, 2016). It is difficult to define the economic value and employment of the telecommunication sector within the Celtic Seas and the marine environment as a whole. However, Pugh (2008) estimates that about 26,000 jobs in the telecommunications sector are marine-related. Generally cables support many other services for local communities and major industries.



Figure 48. Telecommunication cables within the Celtic Seas

Key pressures

Impacts from cable installation on the seabed are short-term and minor in spatial terms. Pressures arising from the telecommunication cables sector are shown in Table 37, with key pressures highlighted in bold.

Table 37. Key pressures arising from the telecommunication cables sector

Pressure Sector-Specific Pressure

Biological disturbance Introduction or spread of non-indigenous species Other physical pressures Underwater noise changes Physical damage (reversible change)

Changes in suspended solids (water clarity) Abrasion/disturbance of the substrate on the surface of the seabed Penetration and/or disturbance of the substrate below the surface

of the seabed, including abrasion Siltation rate changes, including smothering (depth of vertical







The key drivers which will strongly influence change in the telecommunications cable sector within the Celtic Seas are shown in Table 38.

Table 38. Drivers of change for the telecommunications cable sector


National policy Government policies on telecommunication capabilities.

Potential further development of network.

Technology Advances in telecommunication technology (e.g. increased data capacity, speed).

Potential further development of network.

Consumer demand Increased demand. Potential further development of network. Interaction with other marine sectors

Competition for space with other marine sectors.

Potential restrictions on location of cables.

Environmental protection Concern regarding environmental impacts of subsea cable laying.

Potential restrictions to cable laying in designated sites.

Despite being an economically valuable sector, the footprint of this sector in the Celtic Seas is relatively small and unlikely to change significantly over the next 20 years even in relation to further development of the network. Hence, this sector is not assessed in the future scenario assessments.



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6 Abbreviations/Acronyms ABPmer ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd AC Alternating current AIS Automatic Identification System BIIS British-Irish Ice Sheet BIM Board lascaigh Mhara (Irish Sea Fisheries Board) BMAPA British Marine Aggregate Producers Association BODC British Oceanographic Data Centre BP Before present CCS Carbon capture and storage CEFAS Centre for the Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture CFP Common Fisheries Policy C-in-C Commander-in-Chief CIRCABC Communication and Information Resource Centre for Administrations, Businesses and

Citizens Co. County CO2 Carbon dioxide CP2 Charting Progress 2 cSAC Candidate Special Area of Conservation CSAR Centre for Sustainable Aquaculture Research DARD Department for Agriculture and Rural Development DECC Department of Energy & Climate Change DfT Department for Transport EC European Commission ECA Emission Control Areas EcoQO Ecological Quality Objective EEA European Environment Agency EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EMEC European Marine Energy Centre ETC/ICM European Topic Centre on Inland, Coastal and Marine waters EU European Union F Fishing Mortality FAO United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation FMSY Maximum Rate of Fishing Mortality (the proportion of a fish stock caught and

removed by fishing) FT Full Time FTE Full Time Equivalent GDP Gross domestic product GES Good Environmental Status GVA Gross Value Added GW Gigawatt HEI Higher Education Institute HMNB Her Majesty’s Naval Base HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IAMMWG Inter-Agency Marine Mammal Working Group ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea ICFI ICF International IE Ireland IFREMER French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea



IMTA Integrated Multi-trophic Aquaculture ITOPF International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Limited JNCC Joint Nature Conservation Committee m/s metres per second MCA Maritime and Coastguard Agency MCCIP Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership MCZ Marine Conservation Zone MMO Marine Management Organisation MNR Marine Nature Reserve MPA Marine Protected Area MSFD Marine Strategy Framework Directive MSS Marine Scotland Science MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield Mt Million tonnes MU Management Unit MW Megawatt NAD North Atlantic Drift NAFC North Atlantic Fisheries College NEA National Ecosystem Assessment NEA North-East Atlantic NERC Natural Environment Research Council NGO Non-Governmental Organisations NI Northern Ireland NIS Non-Indigenous Species OSPAR Oslo/Paris Convention (for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-

East Atlantic) PAD Petroleum Affairs Division PAH Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons PCB Polychlorinated biphenyls PEXA Practice and exercise area PFOW Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters pMCZ Proposed Marine Conservation Zone PML Plymouth Marine Laboratories PT Part Time QSR Quality Status Report Ramsar Wetlands of international importance, designated under The Convention on Wetlands

(Ramsar, Iran, 1971) rMCZ Recommended Marine Conservation Zone ROI Republic of Ireland RYA Royal Yachting Association SAC Special Area of Conservation SAMS Scottish Association of Marine Science SBB Spawning Stock Biomass SCI Site of Community Importance SCOS Special Committee on Seals SEMRU Socio-Economic marine research unit SPA Special protection Area SSB Spawning Stock Biomass STECF Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries TAC Total Allowable Catch TBT Tributyl tin TLSB Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay



UK United Kingdom UKCS UK Continental Shelf UKMMAS United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy UNCLOS United National Convention on the Law of the Sea WHO World Health Organisation WFD Water Framework Directive WWF World Wildlife Fund Cardinal points/directions are used unless otherwise stated. SI units are used unless otherwise stated.

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