Future Airport STratégies - Eurocontrol · 02/12/2009 FAST Future Airport STratégies INO WORKSHOP Bretigny, 1st December 2009 Contact: Isabelle laplace M3 SYSTEMS, [email protected]

02/12/2009

FAST

Future Airport STratégies

INO WORKSHOPBretigny, 1st December 2009

Contact: Isabelle laplace M3 SYSTEMS, laplace@m3syst ems.net

02/12/2009 Page 2

ContextSTATFOR Medium-Term Forecasts

+22% flights in Europe by 2015 on existing routes

Future routes Additional traffic

BUT

Impacts on ATM

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Context

Ryanair network

1999

Ryanair network

2005

Source Low-Cost Carriers- Europe

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Airport growing role

Low-cost airlines Strong development

Airport status Evolution toward

privatisation, devolution

Objective:

Profit maximization

Necessity to develop

new strategies

Impactson the

route network

Important role of airport strategies for network development

What are airports strategic options for the future?Which impacts of these strategies on route

network, on ATM?

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Project aims

FAST Project objectives

Developing an innovative method to•Identify airports strategic options

•Analyse the impacts of these strategies on route network

•Identify basic influence (possibly consequences) on the airport air traffic management

Applying this method to airport case studies

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FAST project

FAST Project

FAST project was launched in January 2008 and ended in March 2009.Funded by Eurocontrol in the scope of CARE INO projectPartners:

•M3 Systems: project leader•Aviation Economics and Econometric Lab of ENAC

•University of Zilina

Illustration of the methodology on airport case with elements available during the project period.Since then recent events tend to validate the result s obtained …

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CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES

Methodology of identification of airport strategic options

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Strategies

Airport strategies of development

•Two categories of strategies:

–Strategy of specialization–Strategy of diversification

Aeronauticalactivities on the airport

Non-aeronauticalactivities

Core business of airports

Non corebusiness

of airports

Strategies of specialisation

Strategies of diversification

Aeronautical relatedactivities on other

airports

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Specialization

Strategies of specialization

•Investing in capacity : pax/freight terminal, runway

•Improving the airport accessibility : bus shuttles, etc.

•Developing commercial policies to airlines

•Investing in a low-cost terminal

•Investing in terminal infrastructure to improve aeronautical services efficiency (e.g. luggage transfer, pax flows, etc.)

•Investing in communication and marketing

•Developing intermodality with an high-speed rail interconnection

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Diversification

Strategies of diversification

•Developing commercial activities at the airport i.e. developing commercial areas

•Developing services to pax to secure their loyalty

•Investing in other economic sectors (e.g. Investment of Aéroport de Paris in Hub Telecom)

•Developing consultancy services

•Investing in another airport

•Managing other airports

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Question

Question

How to identify the most relevant strategic options of an airport according to its type ?

1. Defining an adequate typology of airport

2. Using this typology to make a first identification of the strategic options

3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status

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Question

Question




3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status)

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Typology

Airport typology Based on three scales:

•Size

•Potential for growth in capacity•Potential for growth in demand

Both levels of potential for growth scales are broken down in low, medium and high potential levels

The size scale is broken down in:•Small (<5 million pax a year)•Medium sized (between 5 and 10 million pax a year)•Large (>10 million pax a year)

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Typology

CAPACITY Potential for growth

HIGH MEDIUM LOW

HIGH

MEDIUM

DEMAND

LOW

Prague

Marseille

Paris Orly

Paris CDG

Vienna Lyon

Geneva

Toulouse Faro

Southampton

Bordeaux

Bratislava

Kosice

Brno

Graz

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Question

Question





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Specialization by airport type

POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH

CAPACITY

HIGH MEDIUM LOW

DEMAND

HIGH

- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines- Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity - Low-cost terminal- Runway capacity- Infrastructure efficiency (only for large airports)- Intermodality(only for large airports)

- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines - Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity- Low-cost terminal

- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines

MEDIUM

- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines- Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity- Low-cost terminal- Runway capacity

LOW

-Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines-Communication and marketing

Bordeaux :Small airport

Available capacityStrong competition with HST in the

futurePartial devolution without privatization

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Diversification by airport type

Strategies of diversificationPotentially relevant for all airport types whatever the potential for growth��more or less relevant according to the airport size(linked to the airport financial resources)

Commercial activity

Services to pax

Small and Medium sized airports

Investments in othereconomic sectors

Consultancy services

Investments in other airports

Large airports

Bordeaux

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First identified strategies

First identification of strategies for Bordeaux airport

Strategies of specialisation:• Accessibility • Commercial policies to airlines • Communication and marketing• Terminal capacity increase• Low-cost terminal• Runway capacity increase

Strategies of diversification:• Commercial activity development• Services to passengers

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Question

Question





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Refinement

- Competition +Accessibility

Capacity

Accessibility

Capacity

Low-cost terminal

Commercial policies

Communication

Bordeaux: strongcompetition

with HST

- +

Commercial activitiesServices to pax

Consultancy servicesInvestments in other

airportsInvestments in other

economic sectors

Private

ownership

and/or management

Commercial activities

Services to pax

Bordeaux: publicly owned and managed

Confirmation of the relevancy of the first identifi ed strategic options

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Bordeaux strategies

Future strategic options of Bordeaux airport

• Time scale: Up to 5 - 8 years• Objectives:

– Secure the loyalty of passengers and of airlines– Attract additional low-cost airlines on the platform

• Strategy oriented toward the quality of service :– Higher quality of service in traditional terminals with

development of services to passengers– Lower quality of service in the low-cost terminal

• Development of commercial policies to airlines (e.g. reduced fees on traffic volume or peak load pricing to increase the traffic at off-peak hours)

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What is the impact of these strategicoptions on airport route network?

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Impacts on route network

Method of identification of the impacts of strategies on route networks

1. Identify strategic options of airport A

2. Identify airport B which already developed similar strategic options in the past

3. Analyse impacts of these past strategies on the route network of airport B

4. Make assumptions on the potential changes in the route network of airport A

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Illustration

Similarities between Marseille past strategy and Bordeaux future strategy

• Constraints: competition with High-Speed Train (TGV Bordeaux-Paris = 3 hours today, 2 hours in 2016)

• Objectives:– Securing the loyalty of passengers and of airlines– Attracting additional low-cost airlines on the platform

• Strategies:– Differentiation in service quality via investments in a low-

cost terminal– Development of commercial policies to airlines (e.g.

reduced fees on traffic volume or peak load pricing to increase the traffic at off-peak hours)

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Marseille route network

Routes opened by Low-Cost carriers between 2003 and 20 07

Routes opened by Full-Service carriers between 2003 a nd 2007

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Marseille route network

Other impacts on the Marseille route network

• Strong traffic development on 8 existing European routes:– traffic <5 000 pax a year in 2003 and >10 000 pax a year in

2007– 6 routes to Northern Europe , 2 routes to Southern Europe

• Low transfer from non scheduled to scheduled traffic: – 2 routes becomes mainly scheduled– 3 routes remain mainly non scheduled with an increase in the

scheduled traffic

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Bordeauxroute network?

Potential changes in the Bordeaux route network

• Existing route network

World regionsNumber of routes from Bordeaux in

2007Canada 1

Northwestern Africa 4West Africa 6

Southern Europe 35Northern Europe 14

Total 46Opportunities to develop additional

routes?

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Bordeauxroute network?

Potential changes in the Bordeaux route network• Additional routes to northern Europe may develop in th e

future to:– Germany– Sweden– Norway– Belgium– Netherlands

• Strong traffic increase on routes with a current low traffic level:– Dusseldorf, Stockholm, Roma

• Some existing non scheduled routes may also become scheduled:– Marrakech, Djerba, Monastir, Heraklion

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What is the impact of these strategicoptions on airport ATM?

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Impacts on ATM

Impacts of new route network on ATM?

• Would need a specific study

• In FAST only preliminary identification

• Predictions of interviewed experts (from France (DGAC), Slovakia and Czech Republic):

“LCCs traffic on new transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”

“New transverse routes may increase the complexity of the en-route air traffic management”

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Impacts on ATM

“Transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”

• First reason :Medium-sized and small airports are not the main generator of ATFM delays at a European level (less frequent delayed flights)

• Second reason :Lower increase in ATFMdelays at non-hub airports

ATM minutes of delay for Clermond Ferrand and Beauvais airports in 2007

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

Clermont Ferrand (Hub) Beauvais (Non-Hub)

Tot

al n

umbe

r of

200

7 de

partu

re

fligh

ts

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

Tot

al A

TM

del

ay fo

r de

partu

re fl

ight

s in

200

7

Departure flights in 2007 Total yearly ATM delay in 2007 (in minutes)

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Impacts on ATM

“Transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”

• Third reason :Additional flights mostly operated at non-peak hours

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Num

ber o

f flig

hts

06:00-07:00

08:00-09:00

10:00-11:00

12:00-13:00

14:00-15:00

16:00-17:00

18:00-19:00

20:00-21:00

Time

Departure flights distribution over the day at Lyon airport

(Date: 23 january 2009)

Air France LCCs Other FSCs

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Impacts on ATM

“New transverse routes may increase the complexity of the en-route air traffic management”

• Observation of the potential crossing of areas with dense traffic that the potential new routes at the analyzed airport may generate– increase in existing traffic flows at intersections in areas with

dense traffic volume could be an increase in the complexity of air traffic management

– complexity increase may however be mitigated by flights operated at non-peak hours and by the flight frequencies on these new destinations

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Impacts on ATM

Potential impacts of the future Bordeaux network

new destinations to Northern European destinations would

cross areas with a dense traffic volume

Impacts :– increase in the

volume of traffic in these dense areas

– and/or the increase in the number of intersections with existing traffic flows.

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Conclusion

Conclusion on the FAST project

FAST is an innovative methodology – applicable to any airport case study– complementary to forecasts dealing with traffic inc rease

on existing routes

Potential changes in airport route network identified thanks to changes in airport strategies

Results for Bordeaux validated by the recent strategic changes of Bordeaux airport (June 2009):– Orientation toward the quality of service : Bulding of a

low-cost terminal (operational in May 2010)– Announced objectives:

� Secure the loyalty of passengers and of airlines� Attract additional low-cost airlines on the platform

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Conclusion

Conclusion on the FAST project

Methodology only applied to a few airports in the study but could be applied and extended to :

– all airport types including new European member sta tes

– airports with overlapping catchment areas

– competing hub – airports,

– complementary airports in case of multi-airport

– management or in case of hub and secondary airports

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Thank you very much for your attentionAny questions

Documents

Future Airport STratégies - Eurocontrol · 02/12/2009 FAST Future Airport STratégies INO WORKSHOP Bretigny, 1st December 2009 Contact: Isabelle laplace M3 SYSTEMS, [email protected]