FPMA Bulletin #6, 11 July 20162 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 11 July 2016 for more information visit the fPMa website hereINTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes the benchmark uS wheat (no.2

11 July 2016

monthly report on food price trends

bulletin

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis

#6

Key messages ↗ International wheat prices rose in June but remained below last year’s level on account of good supply prospects. Maize prices increased as a result of fast shrinking export supplies in South America and in the Black Sea region. Tight availabilities continued to lend support to rice quotations in most Asian origins, but gains were contained by subdued demand.

↗ In Africa, cereal prices rose sharply in South Sudan underpinned by high inflation and insecurity, and in Nigeria mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency. In South Africa, domestic prices of yellow maize increased further and were nearly 50 percent higher than in June last year as a result of tight domestic availabilities and currency weakness.

↗ In South America, prices of yellow maize increased and were well above their year-earlier levels in most countries of the subregion, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, underpinned by a strong pace of exports and a 2016 reduced output, respectively.

Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]

ContentsIntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2

DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3

WESt afrIca ........................................................... 6

SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 7

EaSt afrIca ............................................................ 8

EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 10

cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 13

cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 15

SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 16

Argentina | Maize

Brazil | Maize

Malawi | Maize

Myanmar | Rice

Namibia | Maize

Nigeria | Coarse grains

Peru | Maize

South Africa | Maize

Swaziland | Maize

Domestic price warnings

Warnings are only included if latest available price data is no older than two months.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/detail/en/c/272144/

2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 11 July 2016

for more information visit the fPMa website here

INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes

the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter, f.o.b.) price averaged uSD 198 per tonne in June, up almost 3 percent from May but still 18 percent below its level a year earlier. Wheat export prices increased strongly in the first part of the month because of harvest delays and concerns about crop quality due to excessive rains, but lost some of their gains in the remainder of the month on expectations of higher yields in the united States of america. In the Eu, untimely rains led to relatively stronger price increases month-on-month, while in the Black Sea region quotations declined reflecting improved harvest prospects.

the benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) price averaged about uSD 181 per tonne in June, nearly 7 percent higher than in May and 6 percent above the corresponding month last year. Strong import demand, coupled with a significant tightening of export availabilities in South america and the Black Sea region, underpinned prices in the first half of the month. the increases more than offset the declines in late June, which were mostly driven by beneficial rains in key-growing areas

previously affected by dry and hot weather conditions. In argentina and Brazil, prices averaged higher than in May but showed some declines in late June with the ongoing harvests, while in the Black Sea region quotations maintained a firm tone throughout the month.

the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-2004=100) averaged 198 points in June 2016, down marginally from May, mainly as a result of a decline in the Japonica Index, while Indica and aromatic rice prices were mostly firm. With the exception of Viet nam, where harvest progress and subdued demand kept prices under pressure, tight availabilities continued to support quotations across most asian origins. In thailand, the benchmark thai 100% B white price averaged uSD 456 per tonne, slightly up from May, with upward pressure reined in by limited buying interest and prospects for improved availabilities from large Government stock auctions. Prices also firmed in India and Pakistan, on a combination of seasonally tight supplies and a brisk pace of sales. In South america, quotations gained ground, particularly in Brazil, due to poor harvest results.

Cereal export prices generally increased in June

Latest Price(Jun-16) 1M 3M 1Y

International wheat prices

Percent Change

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)

EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)

Black Sea, Wheat (milling)

Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): International Grains Council

198.00

184.00

187.25

210.00

2.5

4.9

-3.2

4

-4.3

10.3

3.9

9.1

-18.2

-8.1

-3.6

-7.1


International maize prices

Percent Change

150

170

190

210

230

250


US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)

Black Sea, Maize (feed)

Brazil (Paranagua), Maize (feed)

Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council

180.63

206.00

199.25

196.50

6.7

10.2

7.7

5.2

13.3

25

na

20.7

6.3

17.8

14.4

13.5


International rice prices

Percent Change

200250300350400450500550600650


Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)

Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken)

India, Rice (25% broken)

US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)

USD per tonne

Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update

455.75

337.30

361.00

448.00

1.8

-2.5

4.3

1.4

16.2

-1.2

11.9

-1

18.3

1.4

4.9

-7.6

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/regional-roundups/en/

Price warning level: High Moderate

3Food Price Monitoring and Analysis


11 July 2016

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs

Yellow maize prices at record highs Yellow maize prices increased to record levels in June, supported by strong exports and high general inflation. the slow progress of the 2016 crop harvest, due to the late start to the season and excess rainfall, contributed to the upward pressure. However, most of the crops are reported in very good to excellent condition and a bumper output is anticipated. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices also rose further in June, continuing the upward trend of the previous months and were well above their year-earlier levels, particularly those of grain. Strong exports and high inflation continued to underpin prices.

argentina | Maize

countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food

malawi | Maize

Brazil | Maize

Seasonal price declines halted by the impact of a drought-reduced output the national average maize price rebounded strongly in June following three months of seasonal declines. the sharp month-on-month gain mainly reflects the impact of the drought-reduced harvest which has resulted in tight national supplies and increased import requirements. the weak local currency contributed to the high level of prices.

Cereal prices at high levels Harvesting of the 2016 second season crop in June halted the sharp increasing trend of yellow maize prices of the past several months, but prices were still well above those a year earlier. this reflects tight domestic supplies after the reduced first and second season outputs due to adverse weather conditions and record exports in the first quarter of the year. High inflation and a weak currency contributed to the high prices. Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour in June increased at a higher pace than in the previous month, mostly supported by the high inflation and a weak currency. However, while prices of wheat grain were more than one-third higher than a year earlier, those of wheat flour were around their values in June last year reflecting adequate imports. Prices of rice rose sharply in June and were more than 20 percent higher than a year earlier on expectations of a reduced output this year. a spike in the prices of beans, an important staple in the local diet, was also reported in June. the increase follows a significant decline in the area planted this year because of adverse weather and of increased soybean plantings. the Government announced, in late June, it will import beans from Mercosur countries in an effort to stabilize prices.

to 06/16 Same periodaverage

3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

8.0

5.3

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Argentina, Rosario, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

0.0

0.0


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

5.7

6.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Brazil, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-2.0

-0.3


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.0

-4.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Malawi, National Average, Retail, Maize

-5.1

0.6

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/en/




DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

myanmar | Rice

Namibia | Maize

Rice prices at record levels in June Wholesale prices of Emata rice, the most consumed variety, increased and reached record levels in June on account of tight domestic supplies following a reduced 2014 output and an anticipated reduction in the 2015 production. the 2015 secondary season, currently harvested, was negatively affected by prolonged dry conditions during the first part of the cropping season, while heavy rains and hail in early June impacted late-planted crops. the main season, harvested by December last year, was reduced due to floods. a relatively weak currency and high general inflation contributed to support prices at levels above those a year earlier.

Nigeria | Coarse grainsCoarse grain prices on the increase and at high levels Prices of coarse grains continued to increase sharply in May. Millet prices were nearly 80 percent higher than a year earlier, while those of sorghum were more than double their values in May last year and at record highs. Prices of rice were also reportedly high. Increasing prices of both domestic and imported foods were mainly the result of the depreciation of the naira on the parallel market caused by the decline in oil revenues. the drop in oil prices led to a significant decline in exports, a substantial widening of the Government deficit and a sharp drop in the country’s foreign reserves. Increased fuel and transport costs provided additional support to food prices. In an effort to stabilize the country’s economy and harmonize the official and parallel exchange rates, the central Bank of nigeria (cBn) has recently allowed the local currency, fixed to the uS dollar since february last year, to float again at a market-driven rate.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

0.9

1.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Myanmar, Yangon, Wholesale, Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)

2.7

0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.5

5.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Namibia, Windhoek, Retail, Maize meal

2.5

1.2


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

5.2

9.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Sorghum

1.0

-0.7

Cereal prices underpinned by increased import costs Prices of maize meal continued to rise in May, reaching levels around one-third above those of a year earlier. the main driver behind the increases were high maize prices in South africa which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. Prices of wheat products were also on the increase mostly supported by the depreciation of the namibia dollar that pushed up import costs.





11 July 2016

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

Peru | Maize Prices of yellow maize up on a year earlier Yellow maize prices remained unchanged in June despite the ongoing harvest and were 19 percent above their values a year earlier. the country imports about half of its consumption requirements. a reduction in imports compared to the previous month and to June last year, higher export quotations in the international market and increased fuel costs supported prices. a relatively weak local currency contributed to the high level of prices.

south africa | Maize Mixed trends result in a converging of prices, which remain at elevated levelsPrices of maize grain exhibited mixed trends this month, with yellow maize prices increasing for a second consecutive month, reducing the gap with the declining white maize prices. Prices, however, still remained significantly higher than their year-earlier levels, mainly reflecting the tight supply situation, although the depreciated local currency and higher international quotations also contributed to the higher year-on-year levels.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.2

6.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Peru, Lima, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

3.2

0.0


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.7

3.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Africa, Randfontein, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-2.6

0.3

swaziland | Maize Maize prices at record or near-record levels Prices of maize meal were at record or near-record levels in May after the sharp increases in the past few months on account of the high prices in South africa. the white maize market in the country is regulated by the parastatal national Maize corporation (nMc) and at the start of 2016, the nMc announced the increase in the sale price of maize to reflect the record high maize grain prices in South africa which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. the well below-average 2016 cereal crop has also added upward pressure.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.4

5.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Swaziland, National average, Retail, Maize meal

-0.2

-0.2




WesT afRICa

Coarse grain prices rose in most countries, with sharp increases recorded in Nigeria

Prices of locally-grown millet, sorghum and maize, the main staples in the subregion, generally increased in June. In the Sahel belt, coarse grain prices showed seasonal increases in most markets of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, after remaining relatively stable in the past several months. Similarly, in Chad, millet and sorghum prices increased in most markets in May. However, despite the recent gains, coarse grain prices remained generally below their year-earlier levels. By contrast, in coastal countries, prices were significantly higher than at the same time last year in most markets, after consecutive increases in previous months. In Benin, maize

prices showed mixed trends in May and were at levels above those a year earlier in most markets. In Togo, prices strengthened further and were generally up from May last year. In Nigeria, coarse grain prices continued to increase sharply. In Kano market, millet prices were nearly 80 percent higher than a year earlier, while those of sorghum were more than double their values in May last year and at record highs. Increasing prices of both domestic and imported foods were mainly the result of the depreciation of the naira on the parallel market caused by the decline in oil revenues. Increased fuel and transport costs provided additional support.


Wholesale prices of millet in West Africa

Percent Change

140

160

180

200

220

240

260


Mali, Bamako

Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou

Niger, Niamey

CFA Franc per kg

Source(s): Afrique verte

175.00

185.00

210.00

9.4

8.8

5

9.4

15.6

16.7

-2.8

-2.6

10.5

Latest Price(May-16) 1M 3M 1Y

Wholesale prices of coarse grains in Kano, Nigeria

Percent Change

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16

Maize

Millet

Sorghum

Naira per tonne

Source(s): FEWSNET

99000.0

99000.0

97000.0

20.4

22.2

22

37

51.1

38.1

105

78.1

112.3

Latest Price(May-16) 1M 3M 1Y

Retail prices of maize in Togo

Percent Change

50

100

150

200

250

300

May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16

Anie

Lomé

Korbongou

Kara

CFA Franc per kg

Source(s): Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage et de la Pêche

192.00

217.00

180.00

180.00

15

8.5

1.1

2.9

11

18.6

7.8

4

4.9

0

7.8

10.4




11 July 2016

sOuTheRN afRICa

mixed trends of maize prices continue, but quotations generally remain significantly up on a year earlier

In South Africa, prices of yellow maize increased in June narrowing the gap with higher white maize prices that, by contrast, declined slightly. Despite the recent downward harvest pressure, overall tight supplies due to the sharply-reduced 2016 crop, coupled with a weak currency and strengthening international quotations, continued to sustain prices well above those of a year earlier. the high level of prices has caused strong import inflationary pressure in the import-dependent countries of Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. In these countries, maize meal prices in May were well above their year earlier values, with

reduced 2016 domestic outputs adding further upward pressure. In Zambia, seasonal price decreases persisted as the recent 2016 harvest continued to alleviate supply pressure. By contrast, in Malawi, the sharply-reduced 2016 output curbed seasonal declines in June, with the national average maize price posting a strong month-on-month gain. In Zimbabwe, the stronger uS dollar (the country’s main currency) against the South african rand continued to weigh on prices. However, the impact of the drought-reduced production in 2016 led to maize price increases in several areas in May.


Retail prices of maize in Zambia

Percent Change

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


National Average, Maize (white)

National Average, Breakfast maize meal

National Average, White roller maize meal

Kwacha per kg

Source(s): Central Statistical O�ce

1.93

3.29

2.61

-8.6

-1.2

-2.5

-29.6

-3.6

-3.8

15.8

18.7

25.9


Retail prices of maize in Malawi

Percent Change

60

110

160

210

260


National Average, Maize

Kwacha per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security

201.12 16.2 -15.1 80.5


Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa

Percent Change

1200

1700

2200

27003200

3700

4200

4700

5200


Maize (white)

Maize (yellow)

Rand per tonne

Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division

4781.76

3659.62

-1.7

5.4

-1.1

11.3

65.7

46.2




easT afRICa

Cereal prices increased in June

In most countries of the subregion, prices of locally-produced cereals increased in June following seasonal patterns. In Kenya and Ethiopia, prices of maize increased but were still below their year-earlier levels due to adequate stock availabilities. In the Sudan, prices of locally-produced sorghum and millet, the main staples, continued to increase in June with the progress of the lean season, and were about 50 percent higher than their levels a year earlier, as a result of tight domestic availabilities following the drought-reduced 2015 output. In South Sudan, prices of maize and sorghum increased again in June in the capital, Juba, after declining in May. Prices, in nominal terms, were two to three times higher than their levels in June last year, on account of the general economic downturn, high inflation and widespread insecurity. In Somalia, prices of locally-produced sorghum

and maize continued the increasing trend of recent months, with seasonal patterns compounded by uncertain prospects for the 2016 main Gu season harvest, to be gathered in august. Despite the recent increases, however, prices remained lower than a year earlier as a result of adequate domestic availabilities. In Uganda, prices of maize rose in all monitored markets, as the first season harvest, normally gathered from June, was delayed and yields were negatively affected by erratic rainfall in parts of the country. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize continued to decline in June as a result of increased supplies from the Msimu harvest, recently concluded in uni-modal areas, and from the green harvest of the Masika crop, harvested from July in bi-modal areas. Prices were generally well below their year-earlier levels in most monitored markets.


Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia

Percent Change

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500


Bahirdar

Diredawa

Addis Ababa

Mekele

Ethiopian Birr per tonne

Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

4500.00

5271.40

4897.50

5100.00

0

3.4

3.2

0

1.5

-0.2

6.5

-0.4

6.3

-8.7

-5

2


Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya

Percent Change

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000


Nakuru

Nairobi

Eldoret

Kisumu

Kenyan Shilling per tonne

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

27083.0

32176.0

29215.0

34761.0

1

4.3

5

14.9

8.1

5

8.7

16.1

-5.2

-9.5

-11.9

-0.9




11 July 2016

easT afRICa contd.easT afRICa contd.


Wholesale prices of sorghum in the Sudan

Percent Change

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000


El Gedarif

Khartoum

El Obeid

Sudanese Pound per tonne

Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)

3522.20

3773.00

3913.80

10

3.5

2.7

11.8

11

12.1

54.3

55.9

54


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in South Sudan

Percent Change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Juba, Maize (white)

Juba, Sorghum (Feterita)

South Sudanese Pound per 3.5 kg

Source(s): Crop & Livestock Market Information System (CLIMIS)

102.00

117.00

21.4

28.6

43.7

48.1

209.1

277.4


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia

Percent Change

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


Baidoa, Sorghum (red)

Marka, Maize (white)

Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)

Mogadishu, Maize (white)

Somali Shilling per kg

Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit

6000.00

8150.00

5950.00

10325.0

37

1.9

-2.1

15.2

55.5

23.5

2.6

60.7

7.9

-17

-25.6

-2.6


Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania

Percent Change

200300400500600700800900

10001100


Dar es Salaam

Iringa

Arusha

Tanzanian Shilling per kg

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

693.49

545.22

461.59

-7.9

-12.5

-7.3

-13.3

-33.3

-33.7

0.4

-20.9

-19.4




easT asIa

Prices of rice and wheat flour showed mixed trends in June

In several countries of the subregion, smaller 2015/16 harvests continued to support domestic prices of rice in June. In Thailand, prices increased further after rising sharply also in May and were some 20 percent above their year-earlier levels as a result of tight domestic supplies following successive poor harvests. Weak export demand, however, limited the increases. In Myanmar, wholesale prices of rice rose significantly in June on account of the 2015 reduced output. In India and Viet Nam, however, despite smaller outputs from the recently-completed secondary season rice harvests, prices remained overall steady. rice prices remained unchanged also in China. In Cambodia, prices were overall stable but decreased in the key-producing province of Battambang reflecting improved supplies from late-harvested crops. In the Philippines and in Indonesia, adequate availabilities from the recently-concluded harvests kept quotations stable. In Sri Lanka, rice prices rose slightly supported by

prospects for a smaller 2016 secondary crop due to adverse weather conditions, while in Bangladesh, a moderate increase in June was driven by Government procurement purchases. regarding wheat and wheat flour, prices changed little in most countries of the subregion. Quotations were stable in India and Pakistan, with the downward pressure from the recently-concluded 2016 main rabi season harvests, estimated at good levels, offset by the ongoing procurement programmes. Similarly, wheat prices were stable in China, Indonesia and Sri Lanka although above their year-earlier levels. In Bangladesh, prices of wheat flour remained relatively unchanged and 15 percent below their values in June last year pressured by adequate supplies from the good 2016 harvest and high imports in recent months. In Afghanistan, prices of mostly imported wheat flour generally increased in June, reflecting stronger domestic demand during the ramadan and the depreciation of the local currency.


Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand

Percent Change

10

11

12

13

14

15


Rice (25% broken)

Rice (5% broken)

Baht per kg

Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce

12.91

13.91

1.5

2.1

11.8

15.4

19.8

23


Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar

Percent Change

300

350

400

450

500

550


Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)

Kyat per kg

Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar

531.85 5.8 6.8 20.8




11 July 2016

easT asIa contd.


Retail prices of rice in India

Percent Change

22

24

26

28

30

32

34


Chennai

Mumbai

New Delhi

Patna

Indian Rupee per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Consumer A�airs

27.00

30.10

28.37

26.04

-7.4

2

1.3

-3.6

-9.3

0.3

1.3

0

-10

0.3

-8.7

-3.9


Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia

Percent Change

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


Phnom Penh

Kampong Chhnang

Banteay Meanchey

Battambang

Riel per kg

Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System

1650.00

1725.00

1400.00

1300.00

0

0

0

-8.5

3.1

1

0

-3.7

3.1

3.7

3.7

0


Retail prices of rice in the Philippines

Percent Change

35

37

39

41

43

45


National Average, Rice (regular milled)

National Average, Rice (well milled)

Philippine Peso per kg

Source(s): Bureau of Agricultural Statistics

37.00

41.44

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.8

-0.8

-0.1


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Indonesia

Percent Change

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000


National Average, Rice (medium quality)

National Average, Wheat (�our)

Rupiah per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Trade

10577.2

9020.00

-0.2

0.4

-2.8

-0.8

6.5

1.3




easT asIa contd.


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Percent Change

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Rice (white)

Wheat (�our)

Sri Lanka Rupee per kg

Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics

70.73

93.21

1.8

0.5

9.1

5

0.9

8


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Percent Change

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38


Wheat (�our)

Rice (coarse- Guti/ Sharna)

Taka per kg

Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh

25.00

27.00

0

1.9

-2.2

-4.3

-15

-12.7


Retail prices of wheat in Pakistan

Percent Change

30

32

34

36

38

40

42


Karachi

Lahore

Peshawar

Multan

Pakistan Rupee per kg

Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

35.00

32.88

32.00

35.60

0

-0.8

-0.8

1.7

-1.7

-9

-6.4

-6.8

0

1.2

2.4

1


Retail prices of wheat flour in Afghanistan

Percent Change

20

25

30

35

40


Kabul

Kandahar

Jalalabad

Herat

Afghani per kg

Source(s): Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) - WFP

29.00

27.55

26.50

28.53

3.6

1.8

1.9

5.5

-3.3

7.3

19.1

3.7

9.4

16.6

2.9

-0.2




11 July 2016

CIs - asIa aND euROPe

Domestic prices of wheat flour relatively stable in June and lower than a year earlier

In import-dependent countries of the subregion, prices of wheat flour remained unchanged or eased slightly in June. Downward pressure from the recently-started 2016 wheat harvests was more than offset by increases of wheat export prices in Kazakhstan, the subregion’s main supplier, coupled with relatively weak local currencies. In low-Income food-Deficit countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the expectation of reduced harvests this year compared to 2015 also contributed to limit downward price pressure and wheat flour quotations eased only slightly in June or remained unchanged but still at levels below those a year earlier, after the declines of the past months. In Georgia, that heavily depends on imports of wheat flour to meet its consumption requirements, prices remained unchanged in June, despite the forecast for a record 2016 wheat harvest, which has recently started in the

eastern producing area of the country. In Armenia and Belarus, prices of wheat flour remained unchanged in May and were down from a year earlier. By contrast, in Azerbaijan, prices of domestically-produced and imported wheat flour increased in May and were higher than a year earlier due to currency weakness and increased costs of wheat processing. In the Republic of Moldova, prices of wheat flour showed some seasonal increases in June, ahead of the new harvest which is expected to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level. In exporters the Russian Federation and Ukraine, improved prospects for this year’s harvests weighed on export prices of milling wheat which declined in June. However, in view of the short-term reduced supplies of milling wheat, especially of high quality, domestic prices of wheat grain and wheat flour generally increased in June.


Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan

Percent Change

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Khujand, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Kurgonteppa, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Khorugh, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Somoni per kg

Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan

2.90

3.00

3.20

0

-0.7

-1.8

6.2

-2.3

-5

-11.9

-13.3

-10.1


Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan

Percent Change

25

27

29

31

33

35

37


Bishkek

Jalal-Abad

National Average

Naryn

Som per kg

Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic

30.22

27.10

31.03

31.49

-2.5

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-6.2

-12

-4.1

-4.5

-11.3

-20.8

-10.6

-6.7




CIs - asIa aND euROPe contd.


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine

Percent Change

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)

National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Hryvnia per tonne

Source(s): APK-Inform Agency

4100.00

5500.00

5700.00

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.3

-1.8

-1.7

28.6

10

10.7


Export prices of milling wheat

Percent Change

150

170

190

210230

250

270

290

310


Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)

Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)

Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne


196.50

187.50

183.75

0.8

-2.8

-1.3

15.6

4.2

3.1

-27.2

-3

-3.3


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation

Percent Change

5000

7000

9000

1100013000

15000

17000

19000

21000


National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)

Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Russian Ruble per tonne


11950.0

17700.0

17825.0

18425.0

2.4

7.8

12.5

3.4

4.7

7.3

9.7

5.6

23.7

14.2

20.4

24.9


Retail prices of wheat flour in Georgia

Percent Change

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8


National Average, Wheat (�our)

Lari per kg

Source(s): National Statistics O�ce of Georgia

1.72 0 1.8 -0.6




11 July 2016

CeNTRaL ameRICa aND The CaRIBBeaN

Prices of white maize and red beans seasonally increased in June

In most countries of the subregion, white maize prices seasonally increased in June with the progress of the lean period, which continues until the 2016 main de primera season harvest from late august. In El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, maize prices rose in June but remained around their levels a year earlier, mainly on account of adequate supplies of imported maize. In Nicaragua, prices surged in June and were more than one-quarter higher than a year earlier. Seasonal trends were exacerbated by tight domestic availabilities following the drought-reduced 2015 output. In Mexico, the largest producer of the subregion, prices were relatively unchanged but higher than in June last year mostly supported by the weak local currency. In Haiti, maize meal prices were also unchanged and higher than a year earlier in most markets, reflecting tight supplies from the 2015 reduced harvest and the depreciation of the local currency.

Prices of red beans generally increased following seasonal patterns, but remained well below their levels in June last year

as a result of good supplies from the 2015 harvests and adequate volumes of imports. In Honduras, prices of red beans strengthened in June but were more than 20 percent below their values a year earlier. Prices increased significantly in Nicaragua, the subregion’s main producer and exporter, with seasonal trends compounded by strong export demand. However, prices remained more than 20 percent below their year-earlier levels, reflecting ample supplies from the 2015 harvests. In El Salvador, prices of red beans remained virtually unchanged and almost 30 percent down from a year earlier. In Guatemala, where black beans are the variety mostly consumed and produced, prices increased in June and were some 20 percent up from a year earlier, reflecting tight supplies from the 2015 reduced crop and lower imports from Mexico. In Mexico, prices of black beans weakened in June but remained higher than a year earlier supported by the weak local currency. In Haiti, prices of black beans declined in most markets, while in the Dominican Republic, bean prices remained virtually unchanged and down from a year earlier.


Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America

Percent Change

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


Guatemala, Guatemala City

El Salvador, San Salvador

Honduras, Tegucigalpa

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)

USD per tonne

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH

400.62

435.16

431.20

454.74

4.8

2.6

4

19.4

5.1

-0.6

5.5

-1.9

3.6

-1.9

-4.9

22.6


Wholesale prices of red beans in Central America

Percent Change

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


Honduras, Tegucigalpa

El Salvador, San Salvador

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)

USD per tonne

Source(s): SIMPAH; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG

1088.78

1158.96

987.80

1.2

-0.7

6.7

2.8

-5

-6

-26.3

-27.7

-25




sOuTh ameRICa

maize prices generally increased in June, while those of wheat and rice followed mixed trends

In most countries of the subregion, prices of yellow maize increased in June and were overall higher than a year earlier. In Argentina, strong exports and high general inflation pushed prices to record levels. the slow progress of the harvest contributed to the upward pressure, although a bumper output is anticipated. In Brazil, harvesting of the 2016 second season crop halted the sharp increasing trend of the past several months, but prices were still well above those a year earlier. this reflects tight domestic supplies due to the reduced first and second season outputs and record exports in the first quarter of the year. High inflation and a weak currency contributed to the high prices. Increased maize quotations in these countries, the key producers and exporters of the subregion, began to reflect in neighbouring countries. In import-dependent Chile and Colombia, yellow maize prices rose significantly in June and were above their year-earlier levels. In Peru, prices remained unchanged in June despite the ongoing harvest and were 19 percent above their values a year earlier, mostly reflecting reduced imports compared to the previous month and to June last year. In Ecuador, yellow maize prices increased mainly supported by deteriorating prospects for the 2016 second season maize crop affected by pest and fungal infestations. Prices rose significantly also in Bolivia, due to a reduced summer harvest coupled with delays and

reductions in plantings of the ongoing winter crop season. regarding wheat grain and wheat flour, prices increased or remained stable. In Argentina, the subregion’s main producer and exporter, wheat grain and wheat flour prices rose further in June, continuing the upward trend of the previous months and were well above their year-earlier levels, particularly those of grain. Strong exports and high inflation continued to underpin prices. In Brazil, prices of wheat grain and wheat flour in June increased at a higher pace than in the previous month, mostly supported by the high inflation and a weak currency. However, while prices of wheat grain were more than one-third higher than a year earlier, those of wheat flour were around their values in June last year, reflecting adequate imports. In Bolivia, which imports mostly from argentina, wheat flour prices rose sharply in June mainly reflecting increased import costs. However, in other import-dependent countries of the subregion, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, wheat flour prices remained virtually unchanged in June.

Prices of rice followed mixed patterns. In Brazil, the subregion’s largest producer, rice prices rose sharply in June and were more than 20 percent higher than a year earlier on expectations of a reduced output this year. By contrast, prices weakened in Colombia and remained relatively stable in Ecuador and Peru.


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Argentina

Percent Change

800

1300

1800

2300

2800


Rosario, Maize (yellow)

Argentine Peso per tonne

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

2667.16 4.3 20.8 188.2


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Brazil

Percent Change

300

400

500

600

700

800


São Paulo

National Average

Brazilian Real per tonne

Source(s): Agrolink

777.49

740.82

-0.3

2

12.4

21.9

110.8

112.3




11 July 2016


Wholesale prices of wheat flour and yellow maize in Lima, Peru

Percent Change

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500


Maize (yellow)

Nuevo Sol per tonne

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego

1440.00 0 21 19


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Bolivia

Percent Change

30405060708090

100110120


Santa Cruz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

La Paz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

Cochabamba, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

Boliviano per Spanish quintal (46 kg)

Source(s): Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados Agropecuarios, Bolivia

87.50

100.00

86.56

24.3

12.7

14.1

38.9

10.5

34.4

66.7

-4.8

41


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Argentina

Percent Change

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500


Buenos Aires, Wheat

Buenos Aires, Wheat (�our)

Argentine Peso per tonne

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

2680.30

5000.00

4.6

19

24.1

38.9

171.8

78.6


Wholesale prices of wheat in Brazil

Percent Change

400450500550600650700750800850


National Average

São Paulo

Brazilian Real per tonne

Source(s): Agrolink

681.30

798.99

7.4

7.5

15.2

6.9

33.3

37

sOuTh ameRICa contd.


This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.

This report is based on information available up to early July 2016.

All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool

For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

Enquiries may be directed to:Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) TeamTrade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

© FAO, 2016

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 11 July 2016 C0220E/1/07.16

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