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Forecast of the impact of climate change on the productivity of grain crops in
fertile soils of Lithuania
Dr. Sigitas LAZAUSKAS
Virmantas POVILAITIS
Lithuanian Institute of Agriculture (LIA)
Dr. Irena KRIŠČIUKAITIENĖ
Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics (LIAE)
The goal of the survey:
to explore and anticipate the impact of key factors of the changing climate, temperature and humidity regime on the productivity of grain crops.
Tasks:
• Assess the impact of climate change on water balance in relation to the productivity of plants;
• Anticipate changes in the productivity of grain crops by simulating growth and development under different climate change scenarios.
Global changes and their expression in Central Lithuania
• The anticipated global climate warming tendencies are evident, however the scope of changes depends on the applied scenario (IPCC 2007);
• Northern regions are warming up more than the Southern, but hot weather waves will reach Northern regions less often than the Southern and East Europe regions;
• The amount of rainfall in Northern regions should not drop.
• In Lithuania vegetation period becomes warmer and slightly dryer in general, however:
• Winter is very mild, • The second half of
summer and autumn are warm and dry,
• Spring is similar to the spring of this year?
• Variations in meteorological conditions are greatly increasing as well as the probability of extreme phenomena.
Methods of the survey
• Object – summer barley, winter wheat, maize;
• Location of the experiment - long-term Valinavaexperiment representing fertile soils of the Central Lithuania (LIA, Dotnuva);
• Meteorological data – from the Dotnuva meteorological station;
• Model – DSSAT v4 ;
• Model revise - according to actual results of experiments from long-term field experiments at LIA;
• Simulation/anticipation:
üSimulation of water balance
üSimulation and forecasts of crop development under various climate change scenarios.
Valinava long-term experiment
• Set in 1990;
• Covers 11 fields with separate drainage and ground water recording systems;
• Field plants grown under 3 systems of different intensity;
• Typical crop rotation of the Central Lithuania;
Measurements taken in the Valinava long-term experiment
• Soil description;
• Actual meteorological conditions (from Dotnuva);
• Soil humidity observations (irometers);
• Measurements of direct CO2 emissions.
Quite recently damp soils prevailed in Lithuania (reddish - water-sick and regularly damp areas), because of the water balance surplus.
A fragment from the map compiled by the Institute of Amelioration in 1951-1953
Actual annual drainage outflow from different intensity field plant rotation and herbage in the
Valinava experiment during the period of 2002-2008.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
Integruota Intensyvi Organinė Pieva Ganykla
Drainage outflow mm
Temperatur
Rainfall6,3
oC
409,6 mm
7,2oC
467,4 mm
7,0oC
570,3 mm
6,6oC
345,5 mm
9,1oC
656,3 mm
8,5oC
622,3 mm
Fluctuation of key water balance components in winter wheat crops at Valinava grounds in Dotnuva, in 2001 – 2007 (as calculated by model DSSAT) .
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Krituliai Evaporacija Transpiracija Peotenciali ET
Water balance elements in winter wheat crops as calculated by model DSSAT v4, when weather
temperature is above 2°C
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
mm
-60 -30 0 30 60 mm
krituliai dirvos evoporacija transpiracija drenažas
Various models are used in climate change surveys, but in Europe DSSAT and WOFOST (Josef Eitzinger, et al., 2008) are used more often
Operational scheme of the model DSSAT v4.0.2.0
Meteorological conditions
SoilGrowing
technologyPlant
species
Input
Integrated equations in the model set for calculating:•Consumption of water and food substances•Photosynthesis•Breething•Growth and development
OutputGlobal
changes
Riskanalysis
Precissionagriculture
Physiological parametresof plants
Increase of cropyielding
Input of modelio DSSAT v4 in the
surveyVariable:
• Meteorological conditions:
ü Increasing temperature of the environment and CO2 concentration;
ü Increasing temperature of the environment and variable amount of rainfall;
Invariable:
• Soil;
• Technology of growing;
• Plant species;
Water balance in winter wheat crops simulated by model DSSAT v4 and actual indicators of
irometers
Žieminiai kviečiai, 2008 m.
0,5
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325
Dienos po sėjos
m
0
50
100
150
200
ce
ntib
ara
i
vandens prieinamumo augimui faktorius HTK Irometrų duomenys, centibarais
Water balance in summer barley crops simulated by model DSSAT v4, and actual indicators of
irometers
2008 m vasarinių miežių pasėlis
0.30.4
0.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
20 40 60 80 100 120 140dienos po sėjos
m
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
ce
ntib
ara
i
vandens prieinamumo augimui faktorius HTK Irometrų parodymai, centibarais
Water balance• Increase of weather temperature influenced by climate
change increases the potential of evapotranspiration in agricultural crops visibly changing water balance parameters in agricultural crops.
• High increase of weather temperatures during the period of vegetation may relatively increase the evaporation of the soil, and significant reduction of rainfall, as it happened in 2005-2006, may essentially change the entire water balance of the agro-ecosystem.
• Subsequently, the decisive factor on which water balance changes in our country will depend in the future, is the amount of rainfall and its distribution within the course of the year..
Forecast on winter wheat yield as simulated by model DSSAT v4 (on the basis of 2007)
Winter wheat yield
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
-60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60
0 oC 1 oC 2 oC 3 oC 4 oC
kg
ha-1
Change in the amount of rainfall
Change in temperature
Forecast on summer barley yield as simulated by model DSSAT v4 (on the basis of 2007)
Summer barley grain yield
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45
0 oC 1oC 2 oC 3 oC 4 oC
kg h
a-1
Change in the amount of rainfall
Change in temperature
Forecast of summer barley yield as calculated by model DSSAT v4, under warming temperature of
the environment and the increasing amount of CO2
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
esama
CO2
CO2 400
ppm
esama
CO2
CO2 400
ppm
esama
CO2
CO2 400
ppm
esama
CO2
CO2 400
ppm
esama
CO2
CO2 400
ppm
dabartinės sąlygos 1oC prie esamų
sąlygų
2oC prie esamų
sąlygų
3oC prie esamų
sąlygų
4oC prie esamų
sąlygų
kg ha-1
Forecast for maize is favourable: in case the average temperature rose by 2ºC more, grain would ripen to the hard maturity and it would be possible
to start growing productive species of mid-term vegetation Forecast of maize grain yield potential generated by model DSSATv4.0.1.0
changing the average weather temperature by 2 and 4 oC
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 132 147 162 177 192Dienos
kg ha-1
Kukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas esamomis sąlygomisKukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas temperatūrą padidinus +2oCKukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas temperatūrą padidinus +4oC
Maize grain yield potential at current conditions
? ?
Late waves of hot weather
The waives of hot weather will have effect for yield of spring cereals.
4,4
4,6
4,8
5
5,2
5,4
t/ha
2007 m. meteorologinėmis sąlygomis
Maksimali temperatūra liepos mėnesĮ1 savaitę aukštesnė nei 30 oC
Maksimali temperatūra liepos mėnesĮ2 savaitės aukštesnė nei 30 oC
Generalization
• It is anticipated that significant increase of weather temperature and the concentration of CO2 gas in the atmosphere will shorten the vegetation of summer barley and will have a negative impact on the yield indicators.
• In recent years considerably warmer than climatic norm weather in Lithuania in the case of sufficient amount of rainfall is favourable for the formation of the abundant yield of summer barley and, in particular, of winter wheat.
• Forecast for maize is favourable. When the temperature rises by 3ºC grain could ripen to the hard maturity and it would be possible to start growing productive species of mid-term vegetation.
• Weather warming influenced by climate change increases the potential of evapotranspiration in agricultural crops visibly changing water balance parameters in agricultural crops.
• Survey of simulations indicated that early and late spring frosts, summer heat and droughts will greatly influence the development of agricultural crops and the process of yield formation reducing their economic productivity.
Intensiveness of Helminthosporiosis in winter wheat,Dotnuva, 1998 – 2008
y = -0,3768x + 4,6291
R2 = 0,1773
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Aff
ecte
d le
af a
rea
in %
Intensiveness of Drechslera teres in summer barley, Dotnuva, 1998 – 2008
y = -0,3209x + 10,57
R2 = 0,0549
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
2008
Aff
ecte
d le
af a
rea
in %
