FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of ...tran.zalf.de/.../Hannes%20K%F6nig_FoPIA%20Guyuan.pdfSWOT analysis for gathering different impact arguments. CGCIA Workshop

CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011

FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of SLCP induced land

use changes in Western China

Hannes König

SupervisorsProf H. Wiggering (ZALF)

Prof L. Zhen (IGSNRR, CAS), Dr K. Helming (ZALF)


Key objectivesImprove knowledge of the impact

o that the SLCP land use policy will have on the sustainable development in rural China (Guyuan)

Backgroundo SENSOR projecto developed in European contexto test applicability in developing countries

Task & visiono transfer participation-based FoPIA method to developing

countrieso test, adjust and improve (where necessary) the FoPIAo make FoPIA operational


“How will the SLCP policy affect

rural sustainable development and what are the

potentials, challenges & trade-offs?”

Most policies follow one specific target and

related sustainability dimension.

Whereas Sustainability refers to the social,

economic and environmental well-being for

today and tomorrow (iisd 2010)

Social

Economic Environ-mental


Specification of the sustainability context:Local perceptions

Scenario development:Problem definition

STEP I.

STEP II.

Sta

keho

lder

par

ticip

atio

n/ te

sted

kno

wle

dge

Data availability

Scenario impact assessment:Trade-off analysis

STEP III.

FoP

IA fr

amew

ork


Scenario development

Problem definition, delineation of system boundaries

STEP I.

research team

• Remote district of Guyuan

• Mountainous region with elevations 1.250–2950m a.s.l.

• Low rainfall: 470mm mean annual rainfall

• Poor economy of mainly subsistence small-scale agriculture

China

Land degradation/ environmental restoration




Identification of land use change drivers, policy selection

STEP I.

research team research team

Drivers

Soil erosion => vast land degradation

Shift of small-scale agriculture into forestry and/ small business

Demographic changes (growth/ migration)

Policy

Ecological restoration policy (SLCP)

..

land degradationeconomic development

population growth


Environmental restoration: SLCP program… with land conversion rates of 4,8% in Guyuan (since 2000)

Chen CC, Xie GD, Zhen L, Leng YF (2008) Long-term dynamics of cultivated land resources and their driving forces of Guyuan City in upper reaches of JingheRiver. Chinese Geographical Science 18: 33-40. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0033-5

Zhen L, Cao S, Cheng S, Xie G, Wei Y, Liu X, Li F (in press). Arable land requirements based on food consumption patterns: Case study in rural Guyuan District, Western China. Ecological Economics. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.12.008


SLCP-p1(>25°)

SLCP-p2(15°-25°)

no-policy

Converted land

Reference scenario (no policy)

Policy scenarios: partial implementation vs. full implementation

& alternative forest types



Scenario narratives (policy + reference)


Identification of land use change drivers, policy selection

STEP I.

research team research team research team

SLCP implementation of alternative forest policy scenarios:

a) Ecological restoration

b) Bio-energy production

c) Agroforestry


Ecological restoration forest

- on degraded land & slopes

- maintenance & limited use

- ecological purpose

- with native & non-native trees


Fruit production (agroforestry)

- intensive use of pesticides & chemicals

- increasing land use type

- market oriented

- Goji berry, apricot, pear, nuts, apple


Biomass production forests

- for energy supply

- shrubs and small trees

- use of marginal land

- new and innovative land use type in Guyuan


Specification of the sustainability context

Initial list of social, economic and environmental sustainability issues

STEP II.

stakeholder consultation

SocialProvision of work

Food security

Quality of life

EconomicLand-based production

Non-land based production

Infrastructure

EnvironmentalProvision of abioticresources

Provision of biotic resources

Maintenance of ecosystem processes

1. Perceptions of local farmers (stakeholder workshop)

2. Specification by regional experts (expert workshop)

Definition of key regional land use functions

research team

CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011Forest functions & indicators


Perceived importance of land use functions (ranking)

6,1

7 7,1

6

8,5

6,16,5

7,6 7,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Pro

visi

on o

fw

ork

Qua

lity

of li

fe

Food

secu

rity

Non

-land

base

dac

tiviti

es

Land

-bas

edpr

oduc

tion

Infra

stru

ctur

e

Pro

visi

on o

fab

iotic

reso

urce

s

Pro

visi

on o

fbi

otic

reso

urce

s

Mai

nten

ance

of e

cosy

stem

proc

esse

s

Social Economic Environmental


Specification of the sustainability context

Initial list of social, economic and environmental sustainability issues

Definition of key regional land use functions

STEP II.

Development of assessment indicators

stakeholder consultation research team research team

Modified and accepted

Right and possibility to access land for recreation (qualitative)

Rural people traditionally access and enjoy forest

Access to forests

Accepted by all experts

Oxygen and clean air produced by trees (qualitative/ quantitative)

Clean and fresh air is a major concern for health

Provision of ‘quality of life’

Accepted by all experts

Employment rate in land use sectors (%) (quantitative)

Rural people rely on land-based working opportunities

Provision of work

Social

Acceptance of indicatorAssessment indicatorRelevance to GuyuanDefinition of

forest function

CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011Impact assessment


Scenario impact assessment

Clarification of scenarios, functions, indicators

STEP III.

expert workshop

Purpose

Create common ground of understanding among different disciplines

Consider implicit knowledge

Rule out misunderstanding

Simplify where necessary




Impact valuation, sustainability assessment

STEP III.

expert workshop expert workshop

Scenario Impact Scoring

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Prov

isio

n of

wor

k(e

mpl

oym

ent)

Prov

isio

n of

qual

ity o

f life

(hea

lth)

Acc

ess

to fo

rest

(use

r rig

hts)

Inco

me

from

timbe

r (w

ood)

Inco

me

from

non

-tim

ber p

rodu

cts

(non

-tim

ber)

Inco

me

from

fore

st s

ervi

ces

&in

dust

ry(in

dust

ry&

serv

ice)

Prov

isio

n of

bio

ticre

sour

ces

(bio

dive

rsity

)

Prov

isio

n of

abio

tic re

sour

ces

(soi

l hea

lth)

Mai

nten

ance

of

ecos

yste

mpr

oces

ses

(wat

er)

Social Economic Environmental

Ecological forest

Fruit plantation

Bioenergy forest

Expert knowledge used to judge impacts (scoring -3/+3)

Mean values show impacts

Ranges to prompt discussion

Rescoring

SWOT analysis for gathering different impact arguments

CGCIA Workshop12.01.2011SWOT analysis




Analysis of expert judgments, recommendations and policy advise

Impact valuation, sustainability assessment

STEP III.

expert workshop research teamexpert workshop

Complementary analysis of impact results

a) by comparing impact arguments (contrasting arguments/ counts)

b) comparison with other studies (e.g. literature) or local stakeholder perceptions (household surveys, PRA)

1,33

2,38

1,49

0,56

2,21

1,64

2,74

0,82

1,54

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

Ecological forest Fruit plantation Bioenergy forestScenario (forest management type)

sust

aina

bilit

y co

ntrib

utio

n[n

orm

aliz

ed a

nd w

eigh

ted

impa

ct s

core

s]EnvironmentalEconomicSocial

1. What are the trade-offs? Who are the ‘winners’or ‘looser’?

2. Provide policy advise


Employ ‘good’ facilitator who is able to synthesize, translate and

communicate different ‘languages’ and perceptions

Provide facts (research team)

Visualization highly appreciated and a powerful (supporting-tool)

Rule out regional hierarchal bias (stakeholder selection)

Stakeholder workshops are appreciated platforms for

communication and exchange (learn from each other)

Some lessons learned


Quantification of indicators remains difficult

Bridging the gap between disciplines (eco, env, soc)

Communication is key if we speak different languages among

disciplines (make use of concepts and define terminology)

Social indicators most difficult to judge (mainly of qualitative

nature)

Main challenges


Thank you!

Documents

FoPIA – A framework for participatory impact assessment of ...tran.zalf.de/.../Hannes%20K%F6nig_FoPIA%20Guyuan.pdfSWOT analysis for gathering different impact arguments. CGCIA Workshop