46
Manitoba Agronomists Conference December 11-12, 2007 Winnipeg, MB Fertilizer Market Outlook: What’s Going On With Crop Nutrient Markets? Brian Kenyon Marketing Manager The Mosaic Company

Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

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Page 1: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

Manitoba Agronomists ConferenceDecember 11-12, 2007

Winnipeg, MB

Fertilizer Market Outlook:

What’s Going On With Crop Nutrient Markets?

Brian KenyonMarketing ManagerThe Mosaic Company

Page 2: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

1Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 1 December 11, 2007

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain statements contained herein constitute “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the assumptions made in connection with the forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of The Mosaic Company, or industry results generally, to be materially different from those contemplated or projected, forecasted, estimated or budgeted (whether express or implied) by such statements.

These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability of fertilizer, raw material and energy markets subject to competitive market pressures; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks including, but not limited to, changes in policy by foreign governments; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of closure of the South Pierce, Green Bay and Fort Green facilities differing from management’s current estimates; accidents involving our operations, including brine inflows at our Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine as well as potential mine fires, floods, explosions or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

This presentation may not be distributed, reproduced, or used without the express written consent of The Mosaic Company.

Page 3: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

2Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 2 December 11, 2007

Topics and Take Aways

Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries

Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result

Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply

Page 4: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

3Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 3 December 11, 2007

Rapid growth in key Asian crop nutrient markets

Annual GDP Growth Rates in Key Asian Markets

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Global Insight

China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan

Economic growth in key Asian fertilizer markets remains robust.

China and India lead the pack, but GDP in other important markets such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan is growing at around 6% per year.

As a result, these countries are developing large and increasing affluent middle class populations who demand more grain intensive and protein rich foods. That is translating into strong grain and oilseed demand as well as strong crop nutrient demand growth.

Page 5: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

4Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 4 December 11, 2007

It’s still a food game

World Grain and Oilseed Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

06 07 08 09 10

Billi

on M

etric

Ton

nes

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%TotalFor Biofuel Production in the United States, EU25 and ChinaBiofuel Use as a Percent of Total

Crops include corn, barley, wheat, rice, sorghum, soybean, rapeseed and sunflowers.

Source: FAPRI

This analysis does not include sugarcane used for ethanol production.

Biofuels account for a small percentage of global grain and oilseed production. For example, the latest forecasts from FAPRI indicate that biofuels production in the United States, EU25 and China will account for just more than 5% of global production of the leading grain and oilseed crops in 2007/08.

That percentage is projected to grow to just more than 6% following the large expected increases in U.S. ethanol production during the next couple of years.

Page 6: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

5Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 5 December 11, 2007

Global grain and oilseed stocks will fall again this year despite a record harvest

Global grain and oilseed stocks will decline again in 2007/08 despite higher crop prices and the large increase in planted area this year!

Production is forecast to increase 4% to a record 2.02 billion tonnes in 2007, but global stocks will decline about 29 million tonnes in 2007/08.

Stocks as a percentage of use will drop to the fifth lowest level in recent history.

Note that this analysis excludes China due to the unreliability of USDA’s estimates of Chinese grain and oilseed stocks.

World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Mil Tonnes

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

Percent

Stocks Percent of Use

Source: USDA

Page 7: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

6Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 6 December 11, 2007

The wheat market tightens

Global wheat stocks are projected to decline to 110 million tonnes or less than 18% of use. That is the lowest stock level since 1981 and the lowest percentage of use in modern history.

World Wheat Stocks

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Mil Tonnes

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

30%

33%

36%

39%Percent

Stock Pct of Use

Source: USDA

Page 8: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

7Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 7 December 11, 2007

New crop wheat prices moving to higher levels

New Crop Wheat PricesDaily Close June 1 to May 31

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

0601 0731 0929 1128 0127 0328 0527MM/DD

$ BU

2004N 2007N 2008N 2009N

Source: KCBOT

New crop wheat prices for the next two years also surge to the $7.50+ per bushel range and reflect the continued strength in the global wheat market.

Page 9: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

8Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 8 December 11, 2007

Corn stocks are expected to grow higher

U.S. farmers will harvest the largest corn crop ever this fall and stocks at the end of the 2007/08 crop year are expected to increase 493 million bushels to 1.797 billion bushels.

Stocks were revised down from last months’ forecast mainly due to the downward revision of expected yield from 154.7 to 153.0 bushels per acre and higher exports.

U.S. Corn Stocks

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Bil Bu

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

49

56

63

70Pct of Use

Billion Bu Pct of Use

Source: USDA

Page 10: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

9Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 9 December 11, 2007

New crop corn prices at high levels

New Crop Corn PricesDaily Close July 1 to June 30

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

0701 0916 1202 0217 0505MM/DD

$ BU

2004Z 2007Z 2008Z 2009Z 2010Z

Source: CBOT

New crop prices for the next three years, however, remain in the $4.30 per bushel range and reflect the fundamental strength in the global corn market.

The December 2008 price is the value farmers will take into account when making acreage and crop input decisions later this fall.

Page 11: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

10Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 10 December 11, 2007

Very tight soybean outlook

U.S. Soybean Stocks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Mil Bu

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Pct of Use

Million Bu Pct of Use

Source: USDAUSDA revised down soybean stocks to 185 million bushels due mainly to a smaller crop.

U.S. soybean stocks are expected to drop 70% or 388 million bushels this year. This is a result of lower production, greater exports and higher crush expectations.

Page 12: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

11Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 11 December 11, 2007

New crop soybean prices remain at high levels

New Crop Soybean PricesDaily Close July 1 to June 30

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

0701 0916 1202 0217 0505MM/DD

$ BU

2004X 2007X 2008X 2009X

Source: CBOTNew crop soybean prices for the next two years moved up to $9.50-$10.50 per bushel range and reflect the fundamental strength in the global oilseed market.

A key question is whether $10.00 per bushel soybeans will stimulate significant supply response needed from Brazil.

Page 13: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

12Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 12 December 11, 2007

Topics and Take Aways

Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries

Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result

Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply

Page 14: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

13Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 13 December 11, 2007

Optimistic global demand forecasts

Steady increases in population and continued strong economic growth, particularly in large and rapidly developing countries such as China and India, are boosting the demand for more protein-rich and grain- intensive food.

In addition, persistently high energy prices are driving the rapid development of large biofuels initiatives in nearly every energy- deficit or grain-surplus country around the globe.

That combination is fueling an increasingly strong nutrient demand outlook. For example, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) in June projected that world nutrient use will increase more than 21 million tonnes from 2006 to 2011.

World Nutrient Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Source: IFA July 2007

Million Tonnes

N P2O5 K2O

Page 15: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

14Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 14 December 11, 2007

We estimate that U.S. nutrient use increased 10% in 2006/07 due to the large increase in corn acreage and a recovery in application rates. U.S. demand is forecast to increase just slightly in 2007/08 due mainly to an expected drop in corn acreage and an increase in soybean and wheat area.

Further increases in application rates are projected to drive up U.S. nutrient use to the 24 million ton range by 2011/12. Demand is expected to remain relatively stable at this high level due to the large amount of corn used for ethanol production.

U.S. nutrient demand forecasts

U.S. Nutrient Use

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Mill

ion

ST N

+P2O

5+K 2O

Page 16: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

15Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 15 December 11, 2007

We estimate that Canadian nutrient use increased more than 5% in 2006/07.

We forecast that demand will increase more than 6.5% in 2007/08 due to strong wheat and canola prices as well as the vastly improved financial condition of most producers.

Canadian nutrient demand forecasts

Canada Nutrient Use

0.000.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.00

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

MMT

N P2O5 K2O

Page 17: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

16Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 16 December 11, 2007

Topics and Take Aways

Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries

Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result

Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply

Page 18: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

Nitrogen Outlook

Positive demand prospectsSupply struggles to keep up with demand

Page 19: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

18Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007

Record urea prices

Granular Urea PricesNOLA Barge

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

Prilled Urea PricesYuzhnyy fob

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ MT

Source: Fertilizer Week America

Granular Urea PricesMiddle East fob

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ MT

Source: Fertilizer Week America

Page 20: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

19Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 19 December 11, 2007

Very strong global urea import demand

World urea import demand is projected to increase 9.5% or over 3.0 million tonnes to 34.7 million tonnes in 2007.

World urea import demand is forecast to increase another 5% next year.

World Urea Import Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F

MMT

N Amer L Amer Europe Asia Other

Source: Fertecon and Mosaic

Page 21: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

20Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 20 December 11, 2007

Record urea imports from Brazil

Brazil Urea Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F

MMT

Source: IFA and Mosaic

Latest statistics ANDA indicate year-to-date (CY) urea imports were up 59% from a year ago.

Demand prospects in Brazil are good due to positive farm economics and expected increase in crop acreage.

Urea imports are projected to increase 36% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2007 and another 4% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2008.

Brazil Monthly Urea Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 mt

2006 2007Source: ANDA & Siacesp

Page 22: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

21Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 21 December 11, 2007

The India factor: record urea imports

Demand prospects are good in India and urea consumption is forecast to increase about 8% this fertilizer year ending March 31, 2008. Fertilizer year-to-date urea imports are up 103% so far this year and total urea imports are projected to increase 38% to 6.5 million tonnes this year.

We forecast urea imports to reach 6.3 million tonnes in 2008.

India Monthly Urea Imports

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1000 mt

06/07 07/08Source: FAI

India Annual Urea Production and Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08(F)

mmt

Consumption

Production

Imports

Source: FAI and Mosaic

Page 23: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

22Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007

W. European imports are projected to increase

Higher grain prices and biofuels initiatives are providing a boost to the demand outlook.

The zero set-aside policy is also expected to increase acreage and stimulate cereal production in Europe.

We project W. European urea import demand to increase about 5% or 300,000 tonnes in 2008.

Net urea import demand is expected to increase 15% or almost 600,000 tonnes in 2008.

West Europe Net Urea Import Demand

0

1

2

3

4

5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F

MMT

Source: Fertecon and Mosaic

Page 24: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

23Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007

U.S. nitrogen use flat at record levels in 2007/08U.S. Nitrogen Use

7.07.58.08.59.09.5

10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.0

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

Mill

ion

ST N

Official statistics show that U.S. nitrogen use was down only 2.4% in 2005/06 despite the fact that fertilizer prices climbed to record levels following the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

We estimate that U.S. nitrogen use increased almost 10% to 13.2 million tons in 2006/07 due to the jump in corn acreage to 93.6 million acres and recovery in application rates.

We forecast that U.S. nitrogen use to remain flat in 2007/08 due mainly to an acreage shift from corn to wheat and soybeans.

Page 25: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

24Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007

Record Canadian nitrogen use in 2007/08

Canadian nitrogen use is forecast to increase to a record 1.80 million tonnes N in 2007/08 due to high wheat and canola prices and the corresponding increase in farm income.

Canada Nitrogen Use

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Fertilizer Year Ending June 30

MMT

Page 26: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

25Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 25 December 11, 2007

Growth in export supply …

World Urea Export Supply

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F

MMT

FSU Mideast Asia Europe Other L Amer

Source: IFA and Mosaic

Page 27: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

26Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 26 December 11, 2007

The China factor: near-record urea exports

We project that Chinese urea exports will increase to 3.7 to 4.0 million tonnes in 2007 due to surplus domestic supply and high international values. Q3 urea exports were in-line with our expectation and totaled 1.1 million tonnes. Exports during the first nine months of 2007 totaled 2.4 million tonnes, up 255% from a year ago.

China Urea Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT

Source: IFA and Mosaic

China Monthly Urea Exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 mt

2006 2007

Source: China Customs

Page 28: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

27Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 27 December 11, 2007

Phosphate Outlook

An increasingly tight situation shaping upthroughout the 2007/08 fertilizer year

Page 29: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

28Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 28 December 11, 2007

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05) 05/06 Actual 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06) 06/07 Actual 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

A tight outlook for the rest of the fertilizer year

U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07) 07/08 Actual/Forecast 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

Page 30: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

29Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 29 December 11, 2007

DAP prices surge into uncharted territoryDAP Prices

Central Florida Rail

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

DAP PricesNOLA Barge

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

DAP Pricesfob Tampa Vessel

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ MT

Source: Fertecon

Page 31: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

30Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 30 December 11, 2007

World Less China Processed Phosphate Trade

World Less China Processed Phosphate Import Demand by Region

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT

Asia less China L Amer Europe Oceania Other

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

Import demand outside of China is forecast to increase 13% or 2.44 million tonnes in 2007 and another 4% or 830,000 tonnes in 2008.

Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP

Page 32: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

31Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 31 December 11, 2007

Indian import demand remains at high levels

Indian Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

DAP MAP

Indian DAP imports are projected to total 2.6 million tonnes in calendar year 2007 and then increase to about 2.8 million tonnes in 2008.

Page 33: Fertilizer Market Outlook - University of Manitobaumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/MAC_proceedings/... · Market Analysis & Strategic PlanningMarket Analysis and Strategic Planning. 22

32Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 32 December 11, 2007

Latin America imports projected to increase 29%

Total processed phosphate import demand from Latin America is forecast to increase 29% or 1.5 million tonnes in 2007.

Brazil will account for the bulk of the increase, but demand in most other South American and nearly all Central American countries remains strong in the face of record high phosphate prices.

Import demand is projected to increase 4% or almost 300,000 tonnes in 2008, down slightly from previous forecast due to expected increase in carryout stocks.

Latin American Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

TSP

DAP

MAP

% of World Imports

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33Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 33 December 11, 2007

Higher grain prices and biofuels initiatives are providing a boost to the demand outlook.

The zero set-aside policy is also expected to increase acreage and stimulate cereal production in Europe.

We project W. European processed phosphate import demand will increase 5% in 2007 and another 10% or about 600,000 tonnes during these two years.

West European Processed Phosphate Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic

MMT

MAP DAP TSP

W. European imports are projected to increase

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34Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 34 December 11, 2007

U.S. shipments are forecast to increase 8%

U.S. phosphate demand is projected to increase another 1% in 2007/08.

U.S. DAP and MAP shipments are projected to increase 7% to 7.7 million tons in 2007/08.

YTD shipments were up 35% from the low level a year ago.

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06) 06/07 Actual 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07) 07/08 Actual/Forecast 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000

ST

MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05) 05/06 Actual 3-Yr Avg

Source: TFI and Mosaic

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Potash Outlook

Demand growth outstrips supply

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36Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 36 December 11, 2007

U.S. Midwest prices climb to $350+ per ton

Granular Potash Pricesfob U.S. Midwest Warehouse

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

$ ST

Source: Green Markets

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37Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 37 December 11, 2007

Continue tight outlook for 1H 2008

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

NA Potash Stocks on October 31

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

1000 ST K2O

Stocks 3-Year Average

Source: IPNI

Stocks held by producers at both on- and off-site facilities totaled about 865,000 tons K2 O on September 30, up slightly from a month ago, but still down 26% or 310,000 K2 O from a year ago.

Producer stocks are forecast to stay near the 10-year low levels during the 2007/08 fertilizer year and exhibit a pattern similar to that of 2004/05.

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 2004/05 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

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38Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 38 December 11, 2007

Demand prospects remain strong worldwide

Potash import demand is projected to climb to record levels in 2007 and 2008 due to higher crop prices and good farm economics in most parts of the world.

Import demand is forecast to rebound 17% or more than 4.0 million tonnes K2 O to a record 27.6 million tonnes K2 O in 2007 and then increase another 4% to 28.8 million tonnes in 2008.

World Potash Import Demand

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT K2O

Asia US Latin America Europe Other

Source: IFA and Mosaic

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39Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 39 December 11, 2007

Brazil’s imports are up 33% so far this year

Brazil imported almost 5.1 million tonnes KCL during the first nine months of 2007, up 33% from a year ago. MOP import demand is forecast to increase 30% to 6.6 million tonnes KCL in 2007. Our team in Brazil also projects MOP imports to increase another 5% to 6.9 million tonnes in 2008.

Brazil Potash Import Demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT K2O

Source: IFA and Mosaic

Brazil Monthly MOP Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 mt

2006 2007Source: ANDA & Siacesp

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40Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 40 December 11, 2007

China’s imports are up 74% so far this year

Imports are forecast to rebound 20% or about 880,000 tonnes K2 O in 2007 due to strong demand drivers, lower pipeline stocks and more timely settlements of 2007 contracts.

MOP imports during the first nine months of the calendar year increased 74% to 7.4 million tonnes KCL.

China Potash Import Demand

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT K2O

Source: IFA and Mosaic

China Monthly MOP Imports

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 MT

2006 2007

Source: China Customs

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41Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 41 December 11, 2007

Imports are forecast to rebound 22% or about 470,000 tonnes K2 O in 2007. Latest statistics from FAI show that imports during the first nine months of 2007 were up 40% from the low level a year ago.

India Potash Import Demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

MMT K2O

Source: IFA and Mosaic

India Monthly MOP Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1000 mt

06/07 07/08

Source: FAI

India’s imports are up 40% so far this year (CY)

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42Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 42 December 11, 2007

Canadian offshore shipments in October were up significantly from a year ago and slightly higher than forecast. Canadian exports during the first four months of the fertilizer year (Jul-Oct) now are up 7% from the same period a year earlier.

Total exports are projected to increase another almost 4% to 6.8 million tonnes K2 O in 2007/08. Current forecasts translate to a Canpotex sales estimate of 9.5 million tonnes KCL in 2007 and 10.6 million in 2008.

Canadian potash exports are now up 7% YTD

Canadian Potash Exports 2006/07

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

Canadian Potash Exports 2007/08

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

Canadian Potash Exports 2005/06

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

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43Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 43 December 11, 2007

NA Potash Disappearance 2005/06

0100200

300400500600700

800900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1995/96-04/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average

Source: PPI and Mosaic

NA potash shipments are up 5% so far this year

N.A. Potash Disappearance 2006/07

0100200300400500

600700800900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

NA Potash Disappearance 2007/08

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

Domestic shipments are forecast to increase another 2% to 7.1 million tons K2 O in 2007/08.

Implied shipments in October totaled 592,000 tons and year-to-date shipments were up 5% from the same period a year ago.

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44Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 44 December 11, 2007

Tight producer stocks without a pipeline build

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 2004/05 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

NA Potash Stocks at Month End

300500700900

11001300150017001900210023002500

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1000 ST K2O

MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average

Source: IPNI and Mosaic

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45Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 45 December 11, 2007

Manitoba Agronomists ConferenceDecember 11-12, 2007

Winnipeg, MB

Fertilizer Market Outlook:

What’s Going On With Crop Nutrient Markets?

Brian KenyonMarketing ManagerThe Mosaic Company

Thank You