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Manitoba Agronomists ConferenceDecember 11-12, 2007
Winnipeg, MB
Fertilizer Market Outlook:
What’s Going On With Crop Nutrient Markets?
Brian KenyonMarketing ManagerThe Mosaic Company
1Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 1 December 11, 2007
Safe Harbor Statement
Certain statements contained herein constitute “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the assumptions made in connection with the forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of The Mosaic Company, or industry results generally, to be materially different from those contemplated or projected, forecasted, estimated or budgeted (whether express or implied) by such statements.
These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability of fertilizer, raw material and energy markets subject to competitive market pressures; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks including, but not limited to, changes in policy by foreign governments; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of closure of the South Pierce, Green Bay and Fort Green facilities differing from management’s current estimates; accidents involving our operations, including brine inflows at our Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine as well as potential mine fires, floods, explosions or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
This presentation may not be distributed, reproduced, or used without the express written consent of The Mosaic Company.
2Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 2 December 11, 2007
Topics and Take Aways
Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries
Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result
Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply
3Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 3 December 11, 2007
Rapid growth in key Asian crop nutrient markets
Annual GDP Growth Rates in Key Asian Markets
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Global Insight
China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan
Economic growth in key Asian fertilizer markets remains robust.
China and India lead the pack, but GDP in other important markets such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan is growing at around 6% per year.
As a result, these countries are developing large and increasing affluent middle class populations who demand more grain intensive and protein rich foods. That is translating into strong grain and oilseed demand as well as strong crop nutrient demand growth.
4Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 4 December 11, 2007
It’s still a food game
World Grain and Oilseed Production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
06 07 08 09 10
Billi
on M
etric
Ton
nes
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%TotalFor Biofuel Production in the United States, EU25 and ChinaBiofuel Use as a Percent of Total
Crops include corn, barley, wheat, rice, sorghum, soybean, rapeseed and sunflowers.
Source: FAPRI
This analysis does not include sugarcane used for ethanol production.
Biofuels account for a small percentage of global grain and oilseed production. For example, the latest forecasts from FAPRI indicate that biofuels production in the United States, EU25 and China will account for just more than 5% of global production of the leading grain and oilseed crops in 2007/08.
That percentage is projected to grow to just more than 6% following the large expected increases in U.S. ethanol production during the next couple of years.
5Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 5 December 11, 2007
Global grain and oilseed stocks will fall again this year despite a record harvest
Global grain and oilseed stocks will decline again in 2007/08 despite higher crop prices and the large increase in planted area this year!
Production is forecast to increase 4% to a record 2.02 billion tonnes in 2007, but global stocks will decline about 29 million tonnes in 2007/08.
Stocks as a percentage of use will drop to the fifth lowest level in recent history.
Note that this analysis excludes China due to the unreliability of USDA’s estimates of Chinese grain and oilseed stocks.
World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Mil Tonnes
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
Percent
Stocks Percent of Use
Source: USDA
6Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 6 December 11, 2007
The wheat market tightens
Global wheat stocks are projected to decline to 110 million tonnes or less than 18% of use. That is the lowest stock level since 1981 and the lowest percentage of use in modern history.
World Wheat Stocks
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Mil Tonnes
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
30%
33%
36%
39%Percent
Stock Pct of Use
Source: USDA
7Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 7 December 11, 2007
New crop wheat prices moving to higher levels
New Crop Wheat PricesDaily Close June 1 to May 31
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
0601 0731 0929 1128 0127 0328 0527MM/DD
$ BU
2004N 2007N 2008N 2009N
Source: KCBOT
New crop wheat prices for the next two years also surge to the $7.50+ per bushel range and reflect the continued strength in the global wheat market.
8Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 8 December 11, 2007
Corn stocks are expected to grow higher
U.S. farmers will harvest the largest corn crop ever this fall and stocks at the end of the 2007/08 crop year are expected to increase 493 million bushels to 1.797 billion bushels.
Stocks were revised down from last months’ forecast mainly due to the downward revision of expected yield from 154.7 to 153.0 bushels per acre and higher exports.
U.S. Corn Stocks
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Bil Bu
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70Pct of Use
Billion Bu Pct of Use
Source: USDA
9Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 9 December 11, 2007
New crop corn prices at high levels
New Crop Corn PricesDaily Close July 1 to June 30
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
0701 0916 1202 0217 0505MM/DD
$ BU
2004Z 2007Z 2008Z 2009Z 2010Z
Source: CBOT
New crop prices for the next three years, however, remain in the $4.30 per bushel range and reflect the fundamental strength in the global corn market.
The December 2008 price is the value farmers will take into account when making acreage and crop input decisions later this fall.
10Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 10 December 11, 2007
Very tight soybean outlook
U.S. Soybean Stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Mil Bu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Pct of Use
Million Bu Pct of Use
Source: USDAUSDA revised down soybean stocks to 185 million bushels due mainly to a smaller crop.
U.S. soybean stocks are expected to drop 70% or 388 million bushels this year. This is a result of lower production, greater exports and higher crush expectations.
11Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 11 December 11, 2007
New crop soybean prices remain at high levels
New Crop Soybean PricesDaily Close July 1 to June 30
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
0701 0916 1202 0217 0505MM/DD
$ BU
2004X 2007X 2008X 2009X
Source: CBOTNew crop soybean prices for the next two years moved up to $9.50-$10.50 per bushel range and reflect the fundamental strength in the global oilseed market.
A key question is whether $10.00 per bushel soybeans will stimulate significant supply response needed from Brazil.
12Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 12 December 11, 2007
Topics and Take Aways
Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries
Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result
Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply
13Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 13 December 11, 2007
Optimistic global demand forecasts
Steady increases in population and continued strong economic growth, particularly in large and rapidly developing countries such as China and India, are boosting the demand for more protein-rich and grain- intensive food.
In addition, persistently high energy prices are driving the rapid development of large biofuels initiatives in nearly every energy- deficit or grain-surplus country around the globe.
That combination is fueling an increasingly strong nutrient demand outlook. For example, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) in June projected that world nutrient use will increase more than 21 million tonnes from 2006 to 2011.
World Nutrient Use
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: IFA July 2007
Million Tonnes
N P2O5 K2O
14Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 14 December 11, 2007
We estimate that U.S. nutrient use increased 10% in 2006/07 due to the large increase in corn acreage and a recovery in application rates. U.S. demand is forecast to increase just slightly in 2007/08 due mainly to an expected drop in corn acreage and an increase in soybean and wheat area.
Further increases in application rates are projected to drive up U.S. nutrient use to the 24 million ton range by 2011/12. Demand is expected to remain relatively stable at this high level due to the large amount of corn used for ethanol production.
U.S. nutrient demand forecasts
U.S. Nutrient Use
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mill
ion
ST N
+P2O
5+K 2O
15Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 15 December 11, 2007
We estimate that Canadian nutrient use increased more than 5% in 2006/07.
We forecast that demand will increase more than 6.5% in 2007/08 due to strong wheat and canola prices as well as the vastly improved financial condition of most producers.
Canadian nutrient demand forecasts
Canada Nutrient Use
0.000.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.00
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MMT
N P2O5 K2O
16Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 16 December 11, 2007
Topics and Take Aways
Production agriculture is revving up worldwideTraditional demand drivers remain strong and are the main factors fueling increases in nutrient useBiofuels add an octane boost to nutrient demand in a few key countries
Nutrient demand prospects look extremely positive as a result
Brief outlook by nutrientN: Supply struggles to keep up with surging demandP: An increasingly tight situation shaping upK: Demand growth outstrips supply
Nitrogen Outlook
Positive demand prospectsSupply struggles to keep up with demand
18Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007
Record urea prices
Granular Urea PricesNOLA Barge
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ ST
Source: Green Markets
Prilled Urea PricesYuzhnyy fob
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ MT
Source: Fertilizer Week America
Granular Urea PricesMiddle East fob
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ MT
Source: Fertilizer Week America
19Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 19 December 11, 2007
Very strong global urea import demand
World urea import demand is projected to increase 9.5% or over 3.0 million tonnes to 34.7 million tonnes in 2007.
World urea import demand is forecast to increase another 5% next year.
World Urea Import Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F
MMT
N Amer L Amer Europe Asia Other
Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
20Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 20 December 11, 2007
Record urea imports from Brazil
Brazil Urea Imports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F
MMT
Source: IFA and Mosaic
Latest statistics ANDA indicate year-to-date (CY) urea imports were up 59% from a year ago.
Demand prospects in Brazil are good due to positive farm economics and expected increase in crop acreage.
Urea imports are projected to increase 36% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2007 and another 4% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2008.
Brazil Monthly Urea Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 mt
2006 2007Source: ANDA & Siacesp
21Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 21 December 11, 2007
The India factor: record urea imports
Demand prospects are good in India and urea consumption is forecast to increase about 8% this fertilizer year ending March 31, 2008. Fertilizer year-to-date urea imports are up 103% so far this year and total urea imports are projected to increase 38% to 6.5 million tonnes this year.
We forecast urea imports to reach 6.3 million tonnes in 2008.
India Monthly Urea Imports
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1000 mt
06/07 07/08Source: FAI
India Annual Urea Production and Imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08(F)
mmt
Consumption
Production
Imports
Source: FAI and Mosaic
22Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007
W. European imports are projected to increase
Higher grain prices and biofuels initiatives are providing a boost to the demand outlook.
The zero set-aside policy is also expected to increase acreage and stimulate cereal production in Europe.
We project W. European urea import demand to increase about 5% or 300,000 tonnes in 2008.
Net urea import demand is expected to increase 15% or almost 600,000 tonnes in 2008.
West Europe Net Urea Import Demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F
MMT
Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
23Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007
U.S. nitrogen use flat at record levels in 2007/08U.S. Nitrogen Use
7.07.58.08.59.09.5
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mill
ion
ST N
Official statistics show that U.S. nitrogen use was down only 2.4% in 2005/06 despite the fact that fertilizer prices climbed to record levels following the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
We estimate that U.S. nitrogen use increased almost 10% to 13.2 million tons in 2006/07 due to the jump in corn acreage to 93.6 million acres and recovery in application rates.
We forecast that U.S. nitrogen use to remain flat in 2007/08 due mainly to an acreage shift from corn to wheat and soybeans.
24Market Analysis & Strategic Planning November 19, 2007
Record Canadian nitrogen use in 2007/08
Canadian nitrogen use is forecast to increase to a record 1.80 million tonnes N in 2007/08 due to high wheat and canola prices and the corresponding increase in farm income.
Canada Nitrogen Use
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MMT
25Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 25 December 11, 2007
Growth in export supply …
World Urea Export Supply
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F
MMT
FSU Mideast Asia Europe Other L Amer
Source: IFA and Mosaic
26Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 26 December 11, 2007
The China factor: near-record urea exports
We project that Chinese urea exports will increase to 3.7 to 4.0 million tonnes in 2007 due to surplus domestic supply and high international values. Q3 urea exports were in-line with our expectation and totaled 1.1 million tonnes. Exports during the first nine months of 2007 totaled 2.4 million tonnes, up 255% from a year ago.
China Urea Exports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT
Source: IFA and Mosaic
China Monthly Urea Exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 mt
2006 2007
Source: China Customs
27Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 27 December 11, 2007
Phosphate Outlook
An increasingly tight situation shaping upthroughout the 2007/08 fertilizer year
28Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 28 December 11, 2007
U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05) 05/06 Actual 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06) 06/07 Actual 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
A tight outlook for the rest of the fertilizer year
U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07) 07/08 Actual/Forecast 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
29Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 29 December 11, 2007
DAP prices surge into uncharted territoryDAP Prices
Central Florida Rail
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ ST
Source: Green Markets
DAP PricesNOLA Barge
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ ST
Source: Green Markets
DAP Pricesfob Tampa Vessel
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ MT
Source: Fertecon
30Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 30 December 11, 2007
World Less China Processed Phosphate Trade
World Less China Processed Phosphate Import Demand by Region
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT
Asia less China L Amer Europe Oceania Other
Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Import demand outside of China is forecast to increase 13% or 2.44 million tonnes in 2007 and another 4% or 830,000 tonnes in 2008.
Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP
31Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 31 December 11, 2007
Indian import demand remains at high levels
Indian Processed Phosphate Imports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
MMT
DAP MAP
Indian DAP imports are projected to total 2.6 million tonnes in calendar year 2007 and then increase to about 2.8 million tonnes in 2008.
32Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 32 December 11, 2007
Latin America imports projected to increase 29%
Total processed phosphate import demand from Latin America is forecast to increase 29% or 1.5 million tonnes in 2007.
Brazil will account for the bulk of the increase, but demand in most other South American and nearly all Central American countries remains strong in the face of record high phosphate prices.
Import demand is projected to increase 4% or almost 300,000 tonnes in 2008, down slightly from previous forecast due to expected increase in carryout stocks.
Latin American Processed Phosphate Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
MMT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
TSP
DAP
MAP
% of World Imports
33Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 33 December 11, 2007
Higher grain prices and biofuels initiatives are providing a boost to the demand outlook.
The zero set-aside policy is also expected to increase acreage and stimulate cereal production in Europe.
We project W. European processed phosphate import demand will increase 5% in 2007 and another 10% or about 600,000 tonnes during these two years.
West European Processed Phosphate Imports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
MMT
MAP DAP TSP
W. European imports are projected to increase
34Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 34 December 11, 2007
U.S. shipments are forecast to increase 8%
U.S. phosphate demand is projected to increase another 1% in 2007/08.
U.S. DAP and MAP shipments are projected to increase 7% to 7.7 million tons in 2007/08.
YTD shipments were up 35% from the low level a year ago.
U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (2000/01-2005/06) 06/07 Actual 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (2001/02-2006/07) 07/08 Actual/Forecast 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000
ST
MIN MAX Range (1999/00-2004/05) 05/06 Actual 3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
Potash Outlook
Demand growth outstrips supply
36Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 36 December 11, 2007
U.S. Midwest prices climb to $350+ per ton
Granular Potash Pricesfob U.S. Midwest Warehouse
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
$ ST
Source: Green Markets
37Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 37 December 11, 2007
Continue tight outlook for 1H 2008
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
NA Potash Stocks on October 31
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
1000 ST K2O
Stocks 3-Year Average
Source: IPNI
Stocks held by producers at both on- and off-site facilities totaled about 865,000 tons K2 O on September 30, up slightly from a month ago, but still down 26% or 310,000 K2 O from a year ago.
Producer stocks are forecast to stay near the 10-year low levels during the 2007/08 fertilizer year and exhibit a pattern similar to that of 2004/05.
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 2004/05 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
38Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 38 December 11, 2007
Demand prospects remain strong worldwide
Potash import demand is projected to climb to record levels in 2007 and 2008 due to higher crop prices and good farm economics in most parts of the world.
Import demand is forecast to rebound 17% or more than 4.0 million tonnes K2 O to a record 27.6 million tonnes K2 O in 2007 and then increase another 4% to 28.8 million tonnes in 2008.
World Potash Import Demand
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT K2O
Asia US Latin America Europe Other
Source: IFA and Mosaic
39Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 39 December 11, 2007
Brazil’s imports are up 33% so far this year
Brazil imported almost 5.1 million tonnes KCL during the first nine months of 2007, up 33% from a year ago. MOP import demand is forecast to increase 30% to 6.6 million tonnes KCL in 2007. Our team in Brazil also projects MOP imports to increase another 5% to 6.9 million tonnes in 2008.
Brazil Potash Import Demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT K2O
Source: IFA and Mosaic
Brazil Monthly MOP Imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 mt
2006 2007Source: ANDA & Siacesp
40Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 40 December 11, 2007
China’s imports are up 74% so far this year
Imports are forecast to rebound 20% or about 880,000 tonnes K2 O in 2007 due to strong demand drivers, lower pipeline stocks and more timely settlements of 2007 contracts.
MOP imports during the first nine months of the calendar year increased 74% to 7.4 million tonnes KCL.
China Potash Import Demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT K2O
Source: IFA and Mosaic
China Monthly MOP Imports
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 MT
2006 2007
Source: China Customs
41Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 41 December 11, 2007
Imports are forecast to rebound 22% or about 470,000 tonnes K2 O in 2007. Latest statistics from FAI show that imports during the first nine months of 2007 were up 40% from the low level a year ago.
India Potash Import Demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
MMT K2O
Source: IFA and Mosaic
India Monthly MOP Imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1000 mt
06/07 07/08
Source: FAI
India’s imports are up 40% so far this year (CY)
42Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 42 December 11, 2007
Canadian offshore shipments in October were up significantly from a year ago and slightly higher than forecast. Canadian exports during the first four months of the fertilizer year (Jul-Oct) now are up 7% from the same period a year earlier.
Total exports are projected to increase another almost 4% to 6.8 million tonnes K2 O in 2007/08. Current forecasts translate to a Canpotex sales estimate of 9.5 million tonnes KCL in 2007 and 10.6 million in 2008.
Canadian potash exports are now up 7% YTD
Canadian Potash Exports 2006/07
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
Canadian Potash Exports 2007/08
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
Canadian Potash Exports 2005/06
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
43Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 43 December 11, 2007
NA Potash Disappearance 2005/06
0100200
300400500600700
800900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1995/96-04/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average
Source: PPI and Mosaic
NA potash shipments are up 5% so far this year
N.A. Potash Disappearance 2006/07
0100200300400500
600700800900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
NA Potash Disappearance 2007/08
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
Domestic shipments are forecast to increase another 2% to 7.1 million tons K2 O in 2007/08.
Implied shipments in October totaled 592,000 tons and year-to-date shipments were up 5% from the same period a year ago.
44Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 44 December 11, 2007
Tight producer stocks without a pipeline build
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1996/97-2005/06) 2006/07 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1997/98-2006/07) 2007/08 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04) 2004/05 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
NA Potash Stocks at Month End
300500700900
11001300150017001900210023002500
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1000 ST K2O
MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05) 2005/06 3 Year Average
Source: IPNI and Mosaic
45Market Analysis and Strategic Planning Date of PresentationMarket Analysis & Strategic Planning 45 December 11, 2007
Manitoba Agronomists ConferenceDecember 11-12, 2007
Winnipeg, MB
Fertilizer Market Outlook:
What’s Going On With Crop Nutrient Markets?
Brian KenyonMarketing ManagerThe Mosaic Company
Thank You