Examining Population Trends

Oscar Gonzales Copyright 2013

Examining Population Trends


U.S. Population by Race

2016 326,157,434 203,590,818 39,443,305 15,531,613 59,225,877 8,365,821

% Change 4.47% 2.68% 3.67% 5.82% 13.59% -7.78%

Year U.S. White Black Asian Hispanic Other

2011 312,211,832 198,274,006 38,047,665 14,677,490 52,141,065 9,071,606

U.S. Census 2012


U.S. Foreign Born Population


U.S. Population Projections 2008 - 2050

Percent of Total Population 2008-2050

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10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

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2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic


U.S. Median Income by Race

Year U.S. White Black Asian Hispanic

2011 50,289 52,488 36,780 60,415 39,646

U.S. Census 2012

2016 50,832 53,107 36,573 61,010 39,834

% Change 1.08% 1.18% -0.56% .98% 0.47


Buying Power by Race

Source: University of Georgia Selig Center


Hispanic Trends• The five states with the largest Hispanic markets, in order, are

California ($265 billion), Texas ($176 billion), Florida ($107 billion), New York ($81 billion) & Illinois ($44 billion)

• The top five states, as ranked by the rate of growth of Hispanic buying power over the past decade, are South Dakota (253%), North Dakota (237%), Arkansas (229%), Alabama (228%) & South Carolina (226%)


Asian Trends• The five states with the largest Asian consumer markets, in order,

are California ($172 billion), New York ($54 billion), Texas ($34 billion), New Jersey ($34 billion) & Illinois ($24 billion)


Immigrants and BoomersIn his book, Immigrants and Boomers, author and noted demographer Dowell Myers describes how each of these two powerful demographic influencers may hold the keys to resolving the problems presented by the other.

Myers argues that during the demographic transition, the new prospect of diminished skills in the future workforce and a reduced middle class could undermine the continued growth in home prices.

Retirees will transition from being net taxpayers to net recipients of health and pension benefits, and they will be supported by a smaller workforce that is struggling to meet its own needs.

Seniors are also net home sellers and Myers believes there will be 67% more people in the selling age relative to the younger adults who are likely to be buyers.

Myers and other demographers believe that immigration can help supply some of the workers needed to support the rising number of seniors and replace them in the work force as they retire and help compensate for the smaller number of younger adults who are likely to buy homes from the increasing number of older Americans.

New arrivals alone can offset about one-quarter of the increase in the senior ratio.


Texas Demographic Analysis


Texas Population by Race

2016 28,176,459 12,371,002 2,950,923 1,111,736 11,366,025 252,813

% Change 9.41% 3.34% 8.05% 19.74% 15.90% 22.12%

Year TX White Black Asian Hispanic Other

2011 25,752,334 11,971,431 2,731,087 928,446 9,806,890 207,025

U.S. Census 2012


Texas Housing Tenure – Owner Occupied


Texas Housing Tenure – Renter Occupied


Texas Foreign Born Population


International Homebuyer Profile


2012 International Home Buying Activity

• Total sales volume to international clients is estimated at $82.5 Billion for the 12 months ending March 2012, up from an estimated $66.4 Billion for the 12 months ending March 2012.

• The estimated volume of international sales increased between 2011 and 2012 by 24%.


International Home Buyer Profile• A random sample of Realtors® on their

experiences over the 12 months ending March 2012 identified two types of international clients:

– Type A: Foreign clients with permanent residences outside the U.S. These types of clients typically are purchasing property for investment, vacation, or visits of less than six months to the U.S.

– Type B: Clients who are recent immigrants (less than two years) or temporary visa holders residing for more than six months for professional, educational, or other reasons.


Geographic Segmentation• Proximity to the home country, the convenience of air transportation, and

climate and location appear to be important considerations to purchasers. For example: – East Coast attracts Europeans. – West Coast is attractive to Asian purchasers. – Mexican purchasers are active in the Southwestern markets. – Florida appears to be attractive to South Americans as well as Europeans

and Canadians.


Geographic Segmentation• International buyers came from a total of 71 countries; the top five (Canada,

Mexico, China, U.K., and India) accounted for 53% of transactions. Most states had at least one international transaction, but four states—Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas—accounted for 51% of transactions.


U.S. Home Price after Currency Conversion

2000 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jul75

100

125

150

175

200

USCanadaEuroYen100

Index set at 100 in Year 2000


Motivation for Buying• Homes in U.S. are less expensive than comparable foreign

properties and viewed as a secure investment and provide rental and long term appreciation possibilities.

• International students. The student(s) use the property as a

residence while studying in the country. In addition, the properties can also acquire rental and investment aspects, with the student(s) functioning as landlords.

• Foreign executives temporarily working in this country.

• In the case of recent immigrants to the U.S., home ownership is viewed by many as an important accomplishment in their efforts to become established in this country.



Examining Population Trends

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Examining Population Trends