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European industry
dependence on critical raw
materials
- Energy Sector -
14th May 2014
Aymeric BRUNOT – CEA
• Energy sector is broad – with lots of technologies & actors
Challenges
Fossil fuel
Power Plants
Renewables (non-Biomass)
Nuclear
Biomass
CO2
tech.
Hydrogen
tech
Transport
Storage
Heat/steam
production
Efficiency :
-Industry
-Transport
- housing
Economy
Fossil
extraction
Biomass
pathways
Wastes CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
CRM
Energy sector mapping
Screening
Value-Chain Analysis
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EUMain Actor
non-EUMain Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
non-EUValue-Chain Analysis
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EUMain Actor
non-EUMain Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Value-Chain Analysis
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EUMain Actor
non-EUMain Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Main Actor
non-EU
Apps #1
Apps #2
Apps #3
Value chain
analysis
Understanding of
economic
importance for EU &
risks related to CRM
Apps #n
Screening
process
Screening
• Criteria used for energy application screening
Strategic importance
for Europe
(future-oriented)
Dependance on
materials potentially
« at risk »
Economic
importance
for Europe
(present-oriented)
EU « Strategic Energy
Technologies» (2011 Tech. Map SET-Plan)
1. Wind power
2. Solar PV
3. Concentrated Solar Power
4. Hydropower
5. Geothermal
6. Marine energy
7. Cogeneration & CHP
8. Carbon Capture & Storage
9. Advanced Fossil Fuel power gen.
10.Nuclear fission
11.Nuclear fusion
12.Smart grids
13.Bioenergy – power & heat generation
14.Biofuel for transport
15.Fuel cells & Hydrogen
16.Electricity storage
17.Energy-efficient & CO2 emission red.
18.Energy performances of buildings
European 14 « CRM »
(2010 Ad-hoc Group)
CRM
Public Market
Information
Analyst
reports
Eurostat Database
information
Further simplification : - Technology focus, link to other sectors (e.g. transports)
(+ more general)
Screening : Selection of applications for further study
Wind power
Solar PV
Concentrated Solar Power
Hydropower
Geothermal
Marine energy
Cogeneration & CHP
Carbon Capture & Storage
Advanced Fossil Fuel power gen.
Nuclear fission
Nuclear fusion
Smart grids
Bioenergy – power & heat
Fuel cells & Hydrogen
Electricity storage
CRM
Use ? (e.g.)
Accumulators,
Flywheel, magnetic/SMES,
Pumped hydro, CAES,
supercapacitor
Electrolyser
Fuel Cells
Permanent
Magnets
(Transport)
Active
Materials
Alloys
Casings
Alloys
Alloys
Alloys
Control
Rods
??
Shields
Active
Materials
Acti mat.
Alloys
Cf. fossil
Potential
economic weight
(order of mag.)
>1b€
100s M€
10s M€ or less
Accumulators
Flywheel,
magnetic/SMES
/
Cf. fossil power gen.
Wind Power
Photovoltaic Power
Electric Accumulators
Advanced power& cogen plant
PR
IMA
RY
FO
CU
S
SE
CU
ND
AR
Y
Detailled analysis – Battery illustration (1) Electrode Electrolyte Electrode
Pb PbO2 Sb
(add) H2SO4
Cd KOH NiOOH
La, Ce, Nd, Pr NiOOH KOH
Graphite LiPF6 in PC/DMC LiCoO2
Na S Beta Alumina
Vanadium, Iron, Chromium, Zinc, Bromine
…
Ni, Co, Mn, Al « H »
Co (add)
• Analysis of CRM challence for batteries : – Lead-acid batteries
– Ni-Cd batteries
– Ni-MH batteries
– Li-ion batteries
– NaS batteries
– Redox-flow batteries
• Analysis of need & technology dependence
Worldwide battery sales by Chemistry (M$)
NiMH battery by application
in 2011 (% in value)
Li-ion battery by application
in 2011 (% in value)
Production Adv. mat.
manufacturing Components
Batteries cells & stacks
Battery assembly
Recycling
Sold its cobalt asset in 2013
Europe
North America
Asia
Detailled Analysis – Battery Illustration (2) – Value-Chain
Other small companies : Batrec (CH), Recupyl (FR), Akkuser (FI), Accurec (DE)
• 1 leading company in Europe among several US and Asian companies
Cobalt REE Graphite
-Entry in Europe of REEs in alloys form
Chinese domination
75 % market share
• 1 EU leading Cobalt supplier (Umicore)
• Domination of Asia (for REE & graphite)
47 % Cobalt supply
Cathode Anode
(binders)
Umicore Korea : N°1 worldwide
• No EU cathode nor anode supplier
• Domination of Asia (for NiMH & Li-ion)
90 % market share
New unit in the US
NiMH Li-ion
80 % market share
85% market share
Small companies: Saft (FR), Gaia (DE), Evonik (DE), ECC Repenning (DE), Varta (DE) Leclanché (CH)
• Domination of Asia for NiMH and Li-ion manufacturing
• Some EU “niche” leaders like Saft
Domination
Batteries – Main Conclusions
• NiMH & Li-ion are both CRM dependant
• NiMH is still present, but with decreasing market value
• Li-ion is the key technology for future battery market, with huge potential linked to the transportation sector
• However, EU battery industry is limitted in size, and there is strong dependance towards Asia
• Active research in EU may spawn new Li-ion technologies in EU
NiMH &Li-ion Market value & Direct Jobs involved in the EU (FTE) - 2012
~4000 jobs ~320 M€
Market value in the EU (M€) Direct Jobs involved (FTE)
Can be matched against the economic weight
for EU of other CRM-containing applications…
Conclusions – The case of Wind Energy
• Important existing and future needs for wind energy technologies
• CRM-dependant technologies (hybrid, direct-drive) are great facilitators, and even enablers for off-shore deployment
• EU has a strong positionning in the end of the value-chain: component, systems…
• But rely heavily on supply for CRM-based permanent magnets from abroad !!
• Economic & employment risk related to CRM is significant
*Assumptions: 40 % of the market value is captured by wind energy developers and 60 % by wind turbines and
components manufacturers.
Revenues and direct jobs related to wind turbine direct drive industry is about 15 % of the global wind turbine
industry ( average EU JRC and Research and market scenarii;
• Total European wind energy market was 9-15
billion€ in 2012 of which 1400-2200M€ may related to
direct drive wind turbine technology*
• The revenue growth rate 2010-2017 is medium with a
CAGR of 12%
• High growth rates between 2012 and 2015 are
expected due to offshore wind developments
~1400 - 2200 M€
Market value direct drive turbine in the EU* - 2012 (M€)
Wind power
~102 000 – 135 000 FTE
Wind turbine and component
manufacturers
~60 000 – 80 000 FTE
Wind direct drive turbine *
~9000 – 12 000 FTE
Estimation of direct Jobs involved in the EU (FTE) - 2012
Conclusions – The case of photovoltaics
• CRM challenge for PV is today mostly related to CIGS technology (In, Ga)
• PV has a strong potential, but CIGS is currently a small part of the picture
• Highly dynamic market/industry led to decrease of EU importance lately for TF/CIGS
• After analysis, some EU economic risk is still currently associated with CRM/CIGS, but limited : CIGS economic risk for EU is relative !
• Future technologies (e.g. HET, CPV) may change the picture…
PV industry
~265 000
Thin film (industry +
services )
~30 000
Thin film (industry)
~15000
Estimation of direct Jobs involved in the EU (FTE) - 2012
CIGS*
~4000
(Umicore estimation: 2000 FTE)
Thin film market in Europe reached 300 €millions in 2012
CIGS European market is estimated about 81 M€ in 2012*
Regional distribution of production capacity and actual production
Reference: GTM Research's "Thin Film 2012-2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival ; Solar Buzz Market Buzz, march
2013 ; EPIA Global market outlook for photovoltaics 2013-2017; Umicore thin film products and Manz personal communications
*Assumptions : TF market 2012 = 55 % CdTs, 27 % GIGS, 18 % a-Si ; direct jobs related to TF technology is about 11 % of the global PV employment (similar to the production market share); 100 % of
direct jobs = 50% services +50% industry ; CIGS : 27 % global Thin Film jobs (similar to the production market share)
General Conclusions – Energy sector
analysis
• Technologies, in particular new energy technologies, are highly dynamic by nature (e.g. ITO for PV), but industry structure may also be dynamic (ex. thin-films PV).
• Understanding the actual industry value-chain is needed for estimate the real EU economic/job exposure and risk path.
• Based on current market, wind value-chain appears particularly at risk…
• But future market should also be considered (e.g. Li-ion in light of R&D developments ?)
CRM Value Chain Analysis of PhotovoltaicAymeric BRUNOT, Environmental Assessment Project Manager, CEA
Véronique CHARREYRON, Market Analyst, CEA
Pro
du
ct
& T
ec
hn
olo
gy d
eco
mp
osit
ion
Considered as high
CRM-relevance
Considered as low
CRM-relevance
Europe position
• EU companies are well placed in advanced manufacturing, equipment supplying and
recycling.
• Global materials technology and recycling group Umicore is a key player in Europe
• EU companies have a large share of equipment supply but the downturn in new fabs
investments and the difficult market expectations seem very risky for the next 2 years.
• Importance of CRM-related PV for Europe appears after analysis as a case of
potential “false-positive” result (ie. not so important).
TF Panel
manufacturers
Equipment
suppliers
• 2 European companies
in the top 5 suppliers
• Domination of Europe
and North America
• No European
company in the
top 5
• Domination of
Asia over Europe
and North America
• 4 European
companies in the
top 5
• Domination of
Europe over
North America
and Asia
• 3 European companies
• Domination of Europe over
North America and Asia
• 1 European
company in the top
5 secondary
production suppliers
• Domination of North
America
Europe
North
America
Asia
70% market
share
15
banckruptcies
in 2011-2012
CIGS production
scrap recycling
unit in Hoboken
Stopped its CIGS activity in 2013
CIGS Thin Film
fabrication is vertically
integrated
N°1 primary
Indium
producer in
Europe
80% market
share in
vacuum
deposition
Valu
e-C
hain
Str
uctu
re
PV power
plant
PV
installation
PV
satellite
systems
Monocristalline
Silicon cell
Polycristalline
Silicon cell
Concentrated
PV
« modules »
CIGS
cell
CdTe
cell
a-Si
cell
Hi-performance
multi-junction
cells
Other cells
e.g. OPV,
HET…
PV
modules
PV
satellite
modules
Substrate
(e.g. glass)
Back contact
(Mo)
p-layer
Cu(InGa)Se2
n-layer
CdS
TCO layer:
ITO (In, Sn, O)
ITO
targets
CIGS targets
Galliumpure or mixture
Indiumpure or mixture
In in ore
or partially
refined
Ga in ore
or partially
refined
Multiple active
layers :
e.g. GaInP, AlGaAs,
GaInAs…
Ge-based
substrate
Germanium pure or mixture
Ge in ore
or partially
refined
Estimation
•80M€
•2000-4000 FTP