ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 01-15 AUG 2020 CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)

What to expect as China-US trade talks resume

1. The US and China are due to resume trade talks in the coming days

that last took place in January before tensions escalated.

2. The two economic superpowers have been embroiled in a trade war

since 2018 that has damaged the world economy. In January both countries

agreed to ease restrictions imposed on imported goods from each other.

However, relations have become increasingly strained in the last six months

over a wide range of issues:-

(a) US President Donald Trump has clashed with China recently over

two Chinese apps, TikTok and We Chat, which could be banned in the

US over national security concerns. This is the latest sticking point

between Washington and Beijing;

(b) China's new national security law for Hong Kong.

(c) Communications firm Huawei and

(d) The origin of the coronavirus.

(e) These clashes come on top of the already-sensitive trade

relationship between the world's two biggest economies.

(f) According to Nick Marro, a global trade expert at the Economist

Intelligence Unit (EIU) "Both sides will be doing a temperature check to

see where things stand since January. At the very least, we expect

policymakers in Beijing to now be questioning their commitment to a

trade deal that has done little to protect Chinese companies from US

pressure."

3. While We Chat, TikTok and Huawei have all come under fire recently,

the Trump administration has added dozens of Chinese companies to

economic blacklists.

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4. The US government will take further measures to prevent US data from

being stored on Cloud-based systems owned by Chinese firms as well as

impacting upon the use of undersea cables connecting the US to the global

internet.

"Phase one" of the Deal

5. The agreement in January was seen as a "win-win" deal according to

Chinese officials. China pledged to boost US imports by $200bn above 2017

levels including agriculture goods by $32bn and manufacturing products by

$78bn.It also agreed to strengthen its intellectual property rules by taking

more action against counterfeiting and trade secret theft.

6. In exchange, the US agreed to halve some of the new tariffs it has

imposed on Chinese products.

7. While the majority of the border taxes remained in place, it was widely

viewed as a thawing of trade tensions.

8. Comments. Just over six months after the agreement came into effect,

the landscape is very different. US-China relations are increasingly tense and

global trade has been severely hampered by the virus pandemic. Given the

wide range of differences between the US and China, it may be difficult to

achieve further significant progress in the upcoming round of trade talks.

9. China's commitment to buy at least $200bn more in US goods and

services during 2020 and 2021 is one area of concern. Even before the deal

was signed, some trade experts said this was an unrealistic target. It has

become more difficult with the coronavirus-driven slump in both the Chinese

and US economies.

10. The virtual meeting is likely to see officials study Chinese and US trade

data to determine whether the targets can still be met.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53761333

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US labels Confucius Institute a Chinese 'foreign mission'

11. The US has designated the Confucius Institute (CI), the Chinese

government-run global education program, as a foreign propaganda mission.

12. The order says CI, which offers language and cultural programs

overseas is "owned or effectively controlled" by a foreign government.

13. Staff will be required to register and adhere to restrictions similar to

those placed on diplomatic embassies. It comes amid worsening relations

between China and the US.

14. In a statement announcing the move, US Secretary of State Mike

Pompeo called the Confucius Institute "an entity advancing Beijing's global

propaganda and malign influence campaign" on American classrooms and

campuses.

15. "The United States wants to ensure that students on US campuses

have access to Chinese language and cultural offerings free from the

manipulation of the Chinese Communist Party and its proxies," Mr. Pompeo

continued, adding that the move was made to better inform educators.

16. China criticized the US measure as "demonizing and stigmatizing the

normal operation of China-US co-operation projects".

17. "We urge the US to stop politicizing educational exchange programs,

stop interfering with normal people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and

stop undermining China-US mutual trust and co-operation," said foreign

ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.

18. For many American students, CI has been a useful platform to study

Chinese language, but critics say the organization is far from innocent. The

institutes have been accused of pressuring host universities to censor

speeches considered politically sensitive to Beijing. One American university

cancelled its plan to invite Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama for a talk.

Another removed a reference to Taiwan from a university speaker's

biography.

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19. Beijing is likely to retaliate, as it did when the US labeled nine major

Chinese state media as "foreign missions". But it's hard to speculate on

China's targets, as educational exchanges have already withered significantly

amid rising tensions between the two countries.

20. Comments. Confucius Institutes (CI) have been established by the

PRC in various countries to enhance their cultural influence, an essential part

of its soft power component but they are invariably being used as the

Chinese propaganda machines. Education, traditionally considered as a low-

hanging fruit for international collaboration, is only a facade.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53773776?intlink_from_url=

https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia/china&link_location=live-reporting-story

IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri

PLA Rocket Force Launches DF-26 ASBM during Exercises

21. The PLA Rocket Force recently launched a DF-26 intermediate-range

anti-ship ballistic missile in an ongoing months-long exercise. Capable of

striking moving targets at sea, the DF-26 has been dubbed an "aircraft carrier

killer," and its exercise launch sought to again demonstrate its deterrence

value for the adversaries. A PLA Rocket Force missile brigade carried out a

cross-regional confrontational exercise which included the launch a DF-26

missile from a desert area launch site in interior China.

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22. Comments. This is a rare demonstration of a DF-26 launch. In January

2019, the launch of a DF-26 was shown to the public in a China Central

Television report for the first time. The firing appears to be retaliatory

signalling after the US sent two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea for

exercises in Jul 2020; and held joint naval exercises with India in the Indian

Ocean, and Japan and Australia and Philippine Sea respectively.

23. It was officially reported in April 2018 that the DF-26 had been inducted

into the Rocket Force. The missile, with an estimated range of 4,500 km, can

carry conventional or nuclear warheads, and is capable of launching

precision strikes on land targets and medium and large vessels at sea.

Chinese experts said that DF-21D and DF-26, have given PLA the ability to

effectively attack aircraft carriers at close and far ranges.

Source: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196944.shtml

Australia Rejects China's South China Sea Claims as Unlawful

24. Australia, in a declaration filed at the United Nations in New York on 25

Jul 2020, said that it rejected China’s maritime claims around contested

islands in the South China Sea as being inconsistent with the UN Convention

on the Law of the Sea. “Australia rejects China’s claim to ‘historic rights’ or

‘maritime rights and interests’ as established in the ‘long course of historical

practice’ in the South China Sea,” it said. Australia also did not accept

China’s assertion that its sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and Spratly

Islands was ‘widely recognised by the international community’, citing

objections from Vietnam and the Philippines.

25. Comments. Its more outspoken position on China’s claims comes

after the US had rejected China’s claims to offshore resources in most of the

South China Sea. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said earlier in Jul

2020, that China had offered no coherent legal basis for its ambitions in the

South China Sea, and for years has been using intimidation against other

coastal states. Diplomatic tension between China and Australia has

worsened recently over various issues including an Australian call for an

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international enquiry into the coronavirus, which emerged in the Chinese city

of Wuhan late last year.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-china/australia-says-chinas-south-

china-sea-claims-are-unlawful-idUSKCN24Q09D

Chinese Fighter Jets Fly Across Taiwan Strait Median Line

26. Chinese fighter jets crossed over the median line of the Taiwan Strait

and into the Taiwanese airspace on the morning of 10 Aug 2020, one day

after US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar landed in Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Air Force Headquarters announced that Shenyang J-11 and

Chengdu J-10 fighter jets belonging to the PLAAF crossed the median line of

the Taiwan Strait, the unofficial airspace boundary between the two

countries, for a brief period at 9 AM. The PLAAF fighters also ignored verbal

warning. Taiwanese aircraft intercepted the Chinese aircraft and drove them

away from Taiwan's airspace. The Air Force stated that "PLAAF jets'

deliberate intrusion in the current situation has seriously undermined regional

security and stability." Taiwan, For the first time, also announced the

activation of ground-based air defense missiles to monitor the PLA aircraft.

27. Comments. Azar's trip to Taiwan is the highest-level visit by a US

Official since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979.

The health secretary's trip has been facilitated by the Taiwan Travel Act,

which was passed in 2018 and calls for reciprocal visits by officials of both

countries "at all levels."

Source: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3984224

Chinese Tracking Ship Yuanwang 6 Sets Sail on Monitoring Missions

28. China's space tracking ship Yuanwang 6 departed from a port in East

China's Jiangsu province on 13 Jul 2020, for multiple spacecraft monitoring

missions. Yuanwang 6, the third-generation Yuanwang space tracking ship,

will carry out missions in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic

Ocean. It will complete a one-way voyage of more than 10,000 nautical miles

and operate at sea for 100 days.

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29. Comments. This is the first time that a Yuanwang class of telemetry

ship will undertake missions in all three oceans during a single voyage. The

ship has completed its refit, maritime calibration tests, equipment precision

appraisals and two satellite maritime monitoring missions this year.

Source:

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202007/13/WS5f0c1fd4a310834817259170. html

Submarine Cable Connectivity to Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Inaugurated

30. Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi launched the 2300 km submarine

Optical Fiber Cable (OFC) connecting Andaman &Nicobar Islands to the

mainland on 10 Aug 2020. Work of laying undersea cable has been executed

by BSNL in a record time of less than 24 months. The communication service

began immediately after the inauguration, on a major chunk of the islands

from Chennai to Port Blair, Port Blair to Little Andaman and Port Blair to

Swaraj dweep (Havelock Island). Shri Ravi Shankar Prasad, Union Minster

for Electronics & Information Technology, Communications and Law &

Justice; Shri Sanjay Dhotre, Minister of State for Electronics and IT,

Communications and HRD; Admiral D K Joshi, Lieutenant Governor, A&N

Islands, Shri Anshu Prakash, Secretary, Department of Telecommunications

also joined the inaugural event virtually.

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31. Comments. The foundation stone for this project was laid by the PM

on 30 Dec 2018 at Port Blair. The connectivity would now enable endless

opportunities in the islands. It will help A&N in reaping all benefits of Digital

India, especially in improving online education, tele-medicine, banking

system, online trading and in boosting tourism.

32. The Island Development Agency, which was formed 3 years ago, was

also monitoring other high impact projects towards better land, air and

waterways connectivity. These high impact projects are being expanded in 12

islands of Andaman and Nicobar. The work on two major bridges and the

NH-4 in order to improve the road connectivity of North and Middle Andaman

was also progressing. Port Blair Airport is being enhanced to handle a

Capacity of 1200 passengers. In addition, the airports in Diglipur, Car Nicobar

and Campbell - Bay are also being readied for operations. Passenger

Terminal in Swara Dweep, Shaheed Dweep and Long Island along with

Water Aerodrome Infrastructure like Floating Jetty will be ready in the coming

months. 4 Ships being built at Kochi Shipyard shall be delivered soon to

improve Water connectivity with the mainland. There were also plans afoot

for construction of a deep draft trans-shipment Port in Great Nicobar at an

estimated cost of about Rs 10 thousand crores.

Source: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1644712

Indian Naval Innovation and Indigenisation Organisation (NIIO)

Inaugurated

33. The Indian Navy has set up a Naval Innovation and Indigenisation

Organisation (NIIO) to bridge its technological gap through innovation and

involvement of both, the industry and academia. Defence Minister Rajnath

Singh launched the Naval Innovation and Indigenisation Organisation (NIIO)

on 13 Aug 2020 through an online webinar in the presence of Uttar Pradesh

Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath.

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34. The NIIO is a three-tiered organisation:-

(a) Naval Technology Acceleration Council (N-TAC) will bring

together the twin aspects of innovation and indigenisation and provide

apex level directives.

(b) A working group under the N-TAC will implement the projects.

(c) A Technology Development Acceleration Cell (TDAC) has also

been created for induction of emerging disruptive technology in an

accelerated time frame.

(d) The Navy also signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs)

with Uttar Pradesh Expressway Industrial Development Authority

(UPEIDA), Raksha Shakti University (RSU), Gujarat, Maker Village,

Kochi and Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM). A

compendium of Indian Navy’s Indigenisation perspective plans titled

‘Swavlamban’ was also released on the occasion.

35. Comments. The move is seen in consonance with the Draft Defence

Acquisition Policy 2020 (DAP 20) which envisages the Service Headquarters

establishing an Innovation and Indigenisation Organisation within existing

resources. Indian Navy already has a functional Directorate of Indigenisation

(DoI). NIIO will put in place dedicated structures for end-users to interact with

academia and industry towards fostering innovation and indigenisation for

self-reliance in defence, in keeping with the vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Source: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1645549

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KOREA, JAPAN AND MYANMAR

Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari

36. North Korean Hacking Group Attacks Israeli Defense Industry1 As

published on 14 Aug 2020 in TEL AVIV, Israel claimed that it had thwarted a

cyberattack by a North Korea-linked hacking group on its classified defense

industry. The Defense Ministry said the attack was deflected “in real time”

and that there was no “harm or disruption” to its computer systems. However,

security researchers at Clear Sky, the international cybersecurity firm that

first exposed the attack, said the North Korean hackers penetrated the

computer systems and were likely to have stolen a large amount of classified

data. Israeli officials fear the data could be shared with North Korea’s ally,

Iran. The episode adds Israel to the list of countries and companies that have

been targeted by North Korea’s hacking unit, known to private security

analysts as the Lazarus Group. American and Israeli officials have said the

Lazarus Group, also known as Hidden Cobra, is backed by Pyongyang.

37. Comments. Israel claimed that they have thwarted a cyberattack by a

North Korea-linked hacking group on its classified defense industry, but a

cyber security firm says it was successful. Some officials fear that classified

data stolen by North Korea could be shared with Iran. The North Korean

attack on Israeli’s defense industry began with a LinkedIn message in June.

North Korean hackers posing as a Boeing headhunter sent a message to a

senior engineer at an Israeli government-owned company that manufactures

weapons for the Israeli military and intelligence. Israel is now more careful

and adopted more strict measures against such cyber attackes.

38. Japan Marks 75th Anniversary of War End with No Abe Apology2

Japan on 15 Aug 2020 (Saturday) marked the 75th anniversary of its

surrender in World War II, with Emperor Naruhito expressing 'œdeep

remorse' over his country's wartime actions at a somber annual ceremony

curtailed by the coronavirus pandemic. Naruhito pledged to reflect on the

war's events and expressed hope that the tragedy would never be repeated.

There was no word of apology from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who gave

1 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/world/middleeast/north-korea-hackers-israel.html 2 https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20200814/news/308149862/

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thanks for the sacrifices of the Japanese war dead but had nothing to say

about the suffering of Japan's neighbors. Reflecting on our past and bearing

in mind the feelings of deep remorse, I earnestly hope that the ravages of war

will never be repeated, Naruhito said in a short speech at the event in Tokyo

marking the 75th anniversary of Japan's surrender on Aug. 15, 1945. Amid

virus fears and worries about the fading memories of the fast-aging war

generation, about 500 participants, reduced from 6,200 last year, mourned

the dead with a minute of silence.

39. Comments. Japan marked its 75th anniversary of its surrender in

World War II on 15 Aug 2020 (Saturday). This year’s ceremony was

significantly scaled down because of the pandemic, with participants reduced

to fewer than one-tenth of the previous crowds. Naruhito pledged to reflect on

the wartime past and expressed hope that the tragedy would never be

repeated. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did not apologize or acknowledge

Japanese wartime atrocities in Asia and elsewhere. In a largely domestic-

focused speech, Abe said the peace that Japan enjoys today is built on the

sacrifices of those who died in the war. Abe stayed away from the shrine that

honors convicted war criminals among the dead but his ministers prayed

there.

Reference. https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20200814/news/308149862/

40. India-Myanmar Border on High Alert After Ambush by Separatist

Rebels.3 As per the Diplomat of 07 Aug 2020, Indian security forces have

been put on high alert along the country’s border with Myanmar following

another ambush by separatist rebels that killed three personnel of a

paramilitary outfit. An official said that “vulnerable spots” along the border in

India’s Northeast have been identified and “area domination exercises”

launched to prevent further attacks by the rebel groups. In Nagaland’s Mon

and Tuens ang, which had been a hotbed of militancy for the past several

decades, additional deployment of troops have been observed by residents in

the district headquarters. A press release issued by these outfits claimed that

four personnel were killed in the attack as part of the campaign against

India’s “colonization” of western Southeast Asia. Chandel has been one of

3 https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/india-myanmar-border-on-high-alert-after-ambush-by-separatist-rebels/

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the most vulnerable zones along the 1,643 kilometer long India-Myanmar

border. In 2015, as many as 18 soldiers of the Indian army were killed in an

ambush carried out jointly by the separatist outfits. Across Chandel in

Myanmar are at least two big camps belonging to the People’s Liberation

Army (Manipur) and United National Liberation Front, which serve as a

launching pad for the attacks against the Indian security forces. Both the

outfits hail from Manipur’s Imphal Valley and have close ties with other

separatist groups in the region.

41. Comments. Indian security forces were on high alert along the

country’s border with Myanmar after another ambush by separatist rebels

that killed three personnel of a paramilitary outfit. On July 29, a joint squad of

three Myanmar-based separatist groups from India’s Northeast ambushed a

patrolling party of Assam Rifles on the border at Sajik Tampak in Manipur’s

Chandel district. There had been a spate of reports in the media claiming

that the NSCN(IM) had already transferred a large chunk of its weapons and

cadres to camps in Myanmar from its camps in India’s Northeast. NSCN(IM)

has been engaged in a peace process with the Indian government since

1997 with the objective to reach a negotiated settlement. A “Framework

Agreement” clinched in 2015 between the two sides raised the hope of an

agreement, but the process has been stuck over the demands of a separate

flag and constitution by the Naga group. The Manipur Naga People’s Front

(MPNF), in the recent attack, fueling speculation among the Indian security

agencies about new linkages that might have emerged among the groups

and whether it was linked to the division in the Naga separatist movement in

Myanmar.

Reference. https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/india-myanmar-border-on-high-alert-after-

ambush-by-separatis

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NUCLEAR Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) West Asia

42. UAE Recognises Israel and EstablishesFull Diplomatic Relations.

For the west Asian politics it was a historic day as an influential member of

the Arab world not only recognised Israel their sworn enemy but, will

establish full diplomatic relations. Both have signed a peace deal third, by a

Muslim country after Egypt in1979 and Jordan in 1994.

43. The deal was announced by President Trump, whose administration

has been instrumental in getting them together. As per the deal, Israel will

stop annexing the occupied West bank of Palestine and UAE will recognise

Israel. UAE is an important and influential member of the Arab world which is

led by Saudi Arabia. This obviously means that UAE has approval of Saudi

Arabia. The development is not sudden, It is well known that Saudi’s were

warming up to Israel for long and while there is no confirmation, the grape

wine news was that that to counter the rocket and drone threats from Iran

sponsored Yemen militants Saudi’s had sought the Israeli Iron dome which

has the capability to intercept these. The other strategic reason is that Saudi

Arabia wants to curb the Iranian influence and there is no better country than

collaborating with Israel, the sworn enemy of Iran. It is the matter of time that

Saudi Arabia too will establish relations with Israel.

44. Next question is whether, West Asian countries by mending relations

with Israel are abandoning support Palestine cause? It seems that Arab world

has developed understanding that it is unrealistic to deny the existence of

Israel and its concerns. It means that long proposed plan of two nations with

independent Israel and Palestine coexisting, is acceptable but, surely they

want that Israel does not annex any more territory in the West bank. This is

one of the clauses of the UAE and Israel peace deal. But, Israel has not

accepted permanent halt to the annexation and may restart the activity.

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Implications of the Deal

45. United States. For President Trump the Peace deal is a big foreign

policy win, it may have impact in the impending presidential election with big

support from the Jewish community in America which greatly influence the

elections. Therefore, it will benefit Trump If more countries recognise Israel

before elections. President Trump has been looking for such accolades in his

tenure. With this aim, he attempted to solve the North Korean Issue as well

even offered to mediate in Kashmir issue. He has accomplished or on the

verge of completing otherforeignpolicy issues namely with drawing forces

from the West Asia and Afghanistanas promised in past election. These

would help him in the impending elections in Nov 2020.

46. Arab World. This deal does not necessarily mean return of peace in

the Middle East as other players in the middles east i.e. Iraq, Libya, Syria and

role of ISIS would continue. In fact, it was already known that Arab world is

warming up their ties with Israel. Now, it has been formally announced. Now,

US, Israel and Arab world collaborate against Iranian interests more openly

but, it is doubtful that it could influence Iran’s role in Libya, Syria and Iraq. If

however, President Trump loses elections then the incoming democratic

government may restore the nuclear deal with Iran.4

47. Israel and Palestine. A large percentage of (Nearly 70%) of population

are in favour of the two nations co-existing together. This deal supports a

move towards the final settlement. But, for its consolidation, Israel should

permanently stop further annexation of the West Bank which is unlikely as

PM Netanyahu is facing corruption charges and to keep electorates to his

favour he has to build more settlements after annexing the west bank.

48. India. Earlier due to stark preferences for Israel/ Palestine in west Asia,

it was tricky dealing with both as well as with Arab world. Now that diffidence

is gone and our bilateral relations with Arab world, Israel and Palestine would

not suffer any limitations.

4CNN , Hindu

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UNITED STATES

US Elections

On August 11, 2020, Biden Announced that U.S. Senator Kamala Harris

Would be his Vice Presidential Running Mate.

49. The democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden has chosen Senator

Kamala Harris, the senator representing California, as the Vice Presidential

running mate for the likely advantage which she will bring along. Firstly, she

is woman, secondly, a black; finally that she has Indian connection. She was

the one of the four finalist with other three women prospective candidate

namely, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Gov. Gretchen

Whitmer of Michigan and Susan E. Rice, the former national security adviser.

She alone met the politicalcriteria. Susan RIcehad solid foreign policy

credentials but, she is an inexperienced as a senator , Senator Elizabeth

Warren being white could have brought only white votes, Gretchen Whitmer

has oversees birth issue. Only Senator, Kamala Harris has the ability to help

Mr. Biden to win in November by her strength as a debater, her

qualifications for governing and the racial diversity she would bring to the

ticket.5 Kamala Harris also ran for the forthcoming presidential election but

dropped from the contest in Nov 2019 due to shortage of funds .The only

point Biden had against her that as a Presidential candidate her criticism of

Biden was very sharp. But since, she will bring along many advantages and a

possible win for Biden, his selection committee has chosen Senator Kamala

Harris as vice presidential running mate with Biden.

50. Will Joe Biden and Kamala Harris team win better for India? American

would elect whom they consider would better look after their interest. But, we

must know that Kamala possibly considersherself black and does not identify

with India. Hence, she is unlikely to have soft corner for India. We need to

watch out for her views on Kashmir. Though, on strategic terms, India –

America relations are not going to be impacted greatly by any one US office.

US cannot wish away Chinese challenge and would need India to balance

China.

5https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/us/politics/biden-harris.html

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IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI LANKA Brig Rajat Upreti

IRAN

51. US President Donald Trump has announced that he intends to move

next week to trigger a "snapback" of international sanctions against Iran at

the United Nations, despite abandoning the deal two years ago. Trump made

the announcement even as he dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putin's

call for a summit of world leaders to discuss increasing Iran tensions, saying

he probably would not participate. The US lost its bid on Friday to extend the

UN arms embargo after Putin proposed a summit of world leaders to avoid

"confrontation" over the American "snapback" threat. In the Security Council

vote, Russia and China opposed extending the weapons ban, which is due to

expire in October. Eleven members abstained, including France, Germany

and the UK, while the US and the Dominican Republic were the only "yes"

votes.

52. Comments. The United States has threatened to trigger a return of all

UN sanctions on Iran using a provision in a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran

and world powers, known as snapback, even though Trump abandoned the

accord in 2018. Diplomats have said the US would face a tough, messy battle

in any such move

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/trump-threatens-snapback-sanctions-iran-20081523164

53. The long-term strategy of India is to purchase Iran’s oil, as large

refineries in the South Asian country have been built in accordance with the

Iranian oil’s quality, said the Indian ambassador to Tehran. Gaddam

Dharmendra told IRNA on Friday that Indian refineries have suffered losses

due to not buying Iranian oil. India and Iran are currently cooperating in the

field of transportation within the framework of developing the southeastern

Iranian port of Chabahar, he said, adding, “We have a partnership with the

Ports and Maritime Organization of Iran and are committed to its expansion.”

In terms of the banking and financial relations, the two countries’ central

banks are in contact with each other and developing their ties, the envoy

said, noting that a rupee-rial financial mechanism was activated by India and

Iran prior to any other financial mechanism. The two countries are preparing

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and finalizing a preferential trade agreement, said the official, adding that

recently, the Iranian Parliament approved an agreement between Iran and

India to avoid double taxation. Commenting on the impacts of Washington’s

unilateral sanctions on cooperation between New Delhi and Tehran in

developing the southeastern Iranian port, the ambassador said India has

explained to the US about Chabahar port’s development and the contribution

this transport corridor can make to the process of providing assistance to

Afghanistan. He added, “They have been convinced. As a result, Chabahar

has been exempted from US sanctions against Iran. We consider this a

unique achievement for India.” Dharmendra noted that India is interested in

participating in this project and looks forward to continuing expert and

technical negotiations in this regard.

54. Comments. Due to the decrease in energy transactions between India

and Iran, the level of bilateral trade has dropped compared to the past. The

initial estimate of the value of [annual] trade between Iran and India in the

current year is $3.4 billion. The official figure are yet to be announced.

https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/08/india-long-term-strategy-to-purchase-irans-oil/

55. Iran will not make any special concession (in its 25-year roadmap with

China), and reports about handing over Iranian islands to China are a sheer

lie,” Member of National Security Commission in the Parliament Mahmood

Abbaszadeh said on Thursday. The Iranian lawmaker added that Iran is

determined to enhance its mutual ties with China in various sectors, including

energy, economy, and technology. The roadmap is expected to enable such a

level of coordination between Tehran and Beijing that could eat away at

Washington’s sway in the region and further frustrate its attempts at isolating

Tehran.

56. Comments. The Tehran-Beijing agreement was first announced in a

joint statement during a visit to Tehran by Chinese President Xi Jinping in

2016. The cooperation roadmap consists of 20 articles, covering Tehran-

Beijing ties in “Political,” “Executive Cooperation,” “Human and Cultural,”

“Judiciary, Security and Defense,” and “Regional and International” domains,

according to the statement released back then

https://irannewsdaily.com/2020/08/handing-over-islands-to-china-pure-lie-iranian-mp/

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57. Afghanistan's government has started releasing the last 400 Taliban

prisoners, paving the way for long-delayed peace talks. The release was a

condition to begin negotiations to end 19 years of conflict in the country.

Peace talks are expected to start in Qatar within days of the full release. The

release was "to speed up efforts for direct talks and a lasting, nationwide

ceasefire", Afghanistan's Office of the National Security Council said in a

Tweet. On the weekend, an Afghan grand assembly of elders approved the

release of the 400 Taliban prisoners accused of "major" crimes after

authorities initially refused to free the militants. The prisoners include some

44 insurgents who are of particular concern to the United States and other

countries for their roles in high-profile attacks. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani

warned on Thursday that their release was a "danger" to the world, reported

AFP. The move comes as the US announced its troop level in the country

would drop below 5,000 by November.

58. Comments. Earlier this year, the US and the Taliban agreed on a

peace deal to end the 19-year-long conflict in Afghanistan. The deal was

meant to pave the way for talks between the Afghan government and the

Taliban, which had previously only agreed to talk to the US. Negotiations for

the US and Taliban had agreed that 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be

released before they entered talks with the Afghan government. Thousands

were freed - however, 400 remained in prison. About 150 of them are on

death row.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53775035?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/to

MALDIVES

59. Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, on Saturday, described

neighboring India as a beacon of hope for democracy and peace. He made

the remark in a tweet on occasion of India’s 73rd Independence Day. “73

years since India began its tryst with destiny, India remains a beacon of hope

the world over for its democratic values and contributions to peace and

progress,” said President Solih. He offered warm felicitations to Indian

President Ram Nath Kovind, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the

Indian people. India, on Thursday, pledged substantial financial assistance to

Maldives, including a USD 250 million financial package as budget support,

a USD 500 million financial package for the Greater Male’ Connectivity Project,

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and funding for seven more infrastructure development projects under a USD

800 million credit line. India also confirmed the renewal of quotas for import of

essential commodities, announced that an air travel bubble will be established

between Maldives and India within a week’s time, and that cargo ferry

services between Cochin and Kulhudhuffushi City will be operationalized

within three months.

60. Comments. President Solih, after he came to 2018, sought to foster

closer ties with India. It will also allow other Indians who work in various

sectors of the Maldivian economy to return to the country and provide support

as Maldives works to revive its economy after the lockdown. While Maldives

has reopened its borders, lack of commercial flights between Maldives and

several countries has left migrant workers unable to return to Maldives.

https://en.sun.mv/62374

61. The trial on the new charges raised against jailed former president

Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayyoom is scheduled to begin on Sunday. The

hearing will take place at the Criminal Court at 10:00 am. The Prosecutor

General has raised two new charges of bribery and money laundering

against Yameen. He was charged with corruption offences relating to the

leasing of R. Fushidhiggaru island to be developed as a resort island.

Finding him guilty of the charges levied against him, the Criminal Court

sentenced the former president to five years in jail and ordered him to pay

US$ five million to the state after being found guilty of money laundering on

November 28 last year. The high-profile trial was televised live on local

channels, and the appeal trial is currently ongoing.

62. Comments. Former President Yameen is currently serving a five-year

sentence after being found guilty of money laundering in relation to the

MMPRC corruption case. He was accused of defying the agreement between

himself and the Anti-Corruption Commission, which stipulated the former

president to move funds in his Maldives Islamic Bank (MIB) account that are

suspected of having been laundered into an escrow account set up between

the two parties. Failing to do so, and moving the funds in question into an

investment account, the former president deposited funds from another

source into the escrow account.

https://avas.mv/en/87331

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PAKISTAN

63. Minister for Railways Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has said that that issues

with Saudi Arabia after the recent statement of Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood

Qureshi have almost been settled as the chief of army staff and the director

general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) would visit the kingdom on

Sunday (today) and resolve, if any, the rest of the problem. “Saudi Arabia is

our real brother and close to our heart. The misunderstandings that emerged

recently are over now. Mr Rashid termed the army and the Imran Khan-led

government two wheels of the same vehicle.

64. Comments. Riyadh is irked by criticism from Pakistan that Saudi

Arabia has been lukewarm on the Kashmir territorial dispute, two senior

military officials told Reuters, motivating General Bajwa’s planned fence-

building visit on Sunday

https://www.dawn.com/news/1574641/issues-with-saudi-arabia-almost-settled-minister

SRI LANKA

65. Sri Lanka’s parliamentary elections handed President Gotabaya

Rajapaksa and his older brother an overwhelming majority, results showed

on Friday, giving the family power to enact sweeping changes to the

constitution of the island nation. Rajapaksa had sought, and achieved, a two-

thirds majority for his Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party and its allies to be

able to restore full executive powers to the presidency, a move analysts say

could push the country toward authoritarianism. The ruling group won 150

seats in the 225-member parliament, according to a tally published by the

election commission from Wednesday’s vote. The brothers’ popularity has

risen among the majority Sinhalese since the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks

and because of their record in crushing Tamil separatist rebels in 2009. “We

have seen in the past when governments have had a two-thirds majority

(they do) not have to worry about checks and balances,” historian and

political scientist Jayadeva Uyangoda said. “In fact they have untrammelled

power, that is what we have observed in both India and Sri Lanka. In the past

in Sri Lanka, the governments which had this level of power in 1970 and

21

thereafter in 1977 generated a lot of social discontent.”

66. Comments. President Rajapaksa, 71, said the restoration of full

executive powers was necessary to implement his agenda to make the

country of 21 million economically and militarily secure. No timeline has been

set for such a move. Currently, significant power is bestowed on parliament

and the prime minister after a previous government led by the now-

opposition amended the constitution and set up independent commissions to

oversee the police and the judiciary, among other arms of the government.

https://in.reuters.com/article/sri-lanka-election-result/sri-lanka-president-brother-tighten-grip-with

CENTRAL ASIA

CHINA CLAIMS TAJIKISTAN TERRITORIES IN PAMIR MOUNTAIN REGION

Air Cmde T Chand (Retd)

67. China’s quest for more and more territories in its adjoining regions has

remained insatiated despite its phenomenal expansion over the past few

centuries. In the guise of Covid-19, China has renewed its efforts to give

concrete shape to is aspirations; be it in South China Sea, Ladakh, Central

Asian Republics (CARs) or elsewhere. The case of CARs especially

Tajikistan is interesting as it pertains to the settled border region as late as

2010-11.

(Courtesy: Artemka - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/

index.php?curid=86239006)

22

68. According to reports, an article by a Chinese historian Cho Yao Lu,

using Chinese sources, says the entire Pamir region (known for its rich

deposits of gold, silver, copper, tungsten, mica, gem stones and hydrocarbon

resources, even uranium) in Tajikistan belonged to China and should be

returned. While the apparent official endorsement has worried Tajikistan,

reports say the development has even drawn attention in Russia, which

considers the central Asian countries to be part of its strategic backyard6.

China and Tajikistan signed a boundary agreement in 2010 when Tajikistan

was forced to cede about 1,158 sq km of territory in the Pamirs to China as

part of debt forgiveness deal. China is building an airport at Tashkurgan near

the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, that is now a growing cause of concern.

The Tajik government, however, is quite sensitive about the Pamirs, where

some local communities tend to be restive. Last month, following the

publication of the article by the Chinese historian, the Tajik foreign ministry

called China’s ambassador to complain.

69. The controversial article is the second such article in 2020 that lays

Beijing’s claims over Central Asian territories. The first article appeared in

April under the tittle, “Why is Kazakhstan eager to return to China?” was

published in news website Thepaper.cn, later reposted on Sohu.com. This

article also stated that even Kazakhstan was historically an integral part of

China and the Kazakhs “do not have too many complaints.” After its

publication, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese

ambassador to protest against the article.

70. While China has encountered resistance in the SCS and India, it is

unlikely to face similar resistance in Tajikistan. The Central Asian countries

should revisit their policy towards China and should take note of the historical

colonisation process of Xinjiang by different regimes of Xinjiang. They should

come together unlike the countries in South China Sea to stop Beijing’s

assertion of its hegemonic agenda. With the US, EU and Russia least

interested in the landlocked region, collective response by Central Asian

6 https://eurasiantimes.com/after-ladakh-nepal-bhutan-china-now-claims-territory-in-tajikistan/

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Republics is the only way to thwart China’s imperialistic ambitions in the

region7.

7 https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/beijing-imperialism-casts-shadow-south-china-sea-pamirs/