Energy resources and conflict

Survey of perceived energy security threats (review)

• Energy scarcity (peak oil fears)• Energy export dependency and poor

governance (resource curse)• Energy utilization and consequences for global

commons (climate change)• Energy and conflict (resource wars)

Long term outlook (IEA 2012)

• World energy demand to grow by 1/3 by 2035.• Demand for oil forecast to grow by 13-14%.– Production capacity to remain tight.

• China’s PPP GDP to exceed US by 2015 and in market exchange terms by 2020.– Accounts for 50% of increased demand for oil.

• US energy independent by 2030.• CO2 emissions related to energy rise by 20% even with

reductions in production in developed world.– Expected long-term mean temperature rise of 3.6 centigrade.

Pessimistic view

• Tight energy markets produce volatility and perceived insecurity, esp. among politicians.

• Chinese foreign economic policy is targeted at ‘locking up’ ownership of major mineral/energy resources.

• US has believed since 1973 that its security is dependent on access to oil, which has militarized its energy policy.

• High energy prices empower Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, which are hostile to international order.

Pessimistic view

• Impact of climate change on poorly governed regions will produced human security threats and migration towards developed world.

• Uneven distribution of access to secure sources of energy across globe will produce international conflict.

• Increased demand for energy resources, especially oil, will contribute to internal conflicts.

Optimistic view

• Oil is a partially fungible commodity and easily tradable.– Pay attention to grade, sulfur content, etc.

• Higher energy prices will moderate fossil fuel use and bring new and alternative sources to market.

• Rising powers will be able to secure energy on an international market.

• US will become net energy exporter by 2030.– Implications for current account deficit?

Optimistic view

• By 2030, most international movement of energy > Middle East and Asia.– Somebody else’s problem?

• Russia, Iran, Venezuela will continue to be poorly governed irritants rather than threats.

• Higher energy prices will produce greater efficiency and alternative renewable sources that will moderate rate of change in climate.

• But what about internal conflicts due to energy?

Internal conflicts and energy

• Relationship between natural resource production and civil war is mixed.– Depends on resource– Relation between oil production and civil war

onset stronger.• Associated with secessionist movements.• Associated with concentrated resources• Associated with enclave production

– Relation between lootable resources and civil war duration is stronger.

9Source: Jeffrey Dixon, “What Causes Civil Wars? Integrating Quantitative Findings,” International Studies Review (2009) 11: 707-735.

Environment, economy, energy and conflict

• Direct relationship:– Energy production associated with environmental

consequences.– Energy production takes place in areas with weak

state control.– Conflict with local communities over land

ownership and traditional communal rights.– Conflict to pressure state to pay attention to

peripheral communities.

Ecuadorian Amazon

Ecuadorian Amazon

Niger delta

Niger delta militants

Niger delta

Indirect relationship with environment

• Climate change– Higher temperatures mean increased transpiration in

warmer areas, greater pressure on fresh water.– Littoral areas exposed to more extreme weather

events and sea level rise. Energy production uses large amounts of fresh water.

– 15% of fresh water worldwide used for energy production.

• Flight to safety and human migration.– Percentage of humans living in littoral areas is growing.

Coastal population growth

Bottom line

• Four major sources of threats to energy security and because of contemporary patterns of energy use.

• Indicators on scarcity have turned positive for United States.– Energy independence for a generation?

• Other indicators have not.• What to do?