School of somethingFACULTY OF OTHERSRI and iRIFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT d ENGINEERINGFACULTY OF OTHERFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT and ENGINEERING

The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecksThe Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure

Phil Purnell (iRI School of Civil Engineering)Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering)Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment)Julia Steinberger (SRI)D id D (iRI) J th B h (SRI)David Dawson (iRI), Jonathan Busch (SRI)

Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012

Changing infrastructure

• 500 projects; £250 billion

Changing infrastructure

500 projects; £250 billion

• environmental impacts –reducing the carbon intensity

• The nature of our national infrastructure needs to be a primary driver in the move towards a low carbon economy …infrastructureeconomy …infrastructure must also be adaptable… to meet changing demand through the adoption of newthrough the adoption of new technologies and materials

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Changing material mix

• Embedding new low CO2

Changing material mix

Embedding new low CO2technology will introduce critical materials into infrastructure: e.g.

• Nd - motors/generators for wind turbines & electric vehicles

• Cr – low CO2 reinforced concrete

• Not just elements: e.g. aggregates, components, lubricants, polymerspolymers…

http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm

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Changing material mix

• Scale of infrastructure means

Changing material mix

Scale of infrastructure means that change in demand can be a step-changeg

• Multiples, not fractions• e g low CO2 concrete: move to 50%e.g. low CO2 concrete: move to 50%

stainless steel rebar would double EU Cr imports; move to 10% Ti-based cathodic protection could x10 EU Ti imports.p p

• Previously abundant materials may become criticaly

http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm

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CrCr: India, : India, Kaz’stanKaz’stan, Iran, Iran

NdNd: China : China (97%)(97%)

CrCr: SA, : SA, ZimbabweZimbabwe

•• VulnerabilityVulnerability: EU/UK are often 100% importers• Passive/reactive price & supply volatility: GeopoliticalPassive/reactive price & supply volatility: Geopolitical

issuesMap source: http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/tajani/hot-topics/raw-materials/index_en.htm 5

GeopoliticsGeopolitics

“The US and the EU asked Beijing to clarify its policy on mineral exports after China exports after China stopped shipping to Japan.

“The stoppage followed a spat between China and Japan last month over islands whose ownership is disputed ”

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ownership is disputed.

How do we assure supply?

• Strategic stockpiling

How do we assure supply?

Strategic stockpiling

• Trade agreements

• Recycling• collection vs. “mining

i f t t ”infrastructure”• urban mining, urban ores,

urban concentrates “Some metal has more urban concentrates…

• where, when, in what state are the stocks?

Some metal has more on‐surface stock than

underground stock”a e t e stoc sK HALADA, National Institute for

Materials Science, Japan7

Existing models: Stocks & FlowsExisting models: Stocks & Flows

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S&F LimitationsS&F Limitations

• One substance at a time

• Existing infrastructure = aggregate stock of aExisting infrastructure aggregate stock of a given substance; no information on location

Properties or q alit of the s bstances (e g• Properties or quality of the substances (e.g. Cr as element or alloy) are not generally explicitly accounted forexplicitly accounted for.

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The Project: A New Model

• the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;

The Project: A New Model

the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;

• the stocks of materials contained within infrastructure during operation and demolition;infrastructure, during operation and demolition;

• the location and properties of these materials and the components they are a part of;the components they are a part of;

• the criticality of key materials, in terms of s bstit tabilit and s ppl riskssubstitutability and supply risks;

• the interactions between these factors.

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2The Project: Methodology2The Project: Methodology

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2Potential initial case studies2

• Low carbon concretes • Move to wind power, tidal

Potential initial case studies

(Halcrow)

• Move to fibre optic control and HVDC in power distribution

pgeneration etc (Halcrow)

• Treatment at source vscentralised treatment, anaerobicHVDC in power distribution

(National Grid)

• New rail electrification (Halcrow)

centralised treatment, anaerobic digestion & CHP (United Utilities/Halcrow)

• Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)(Halcrow)

• Move to electric vehicles (U.Newcastle)

• Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)

• Active comms on road infrastructure (Halcrow)

• Energy Storage – bulk vsdecentralised (National Grid)

• Underground vs overground• Decision matrix…

U de g ou d s o e g ou dconducters (National Grid)

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2Scoring criteria2

• Data availability – S&F of materials and components

Scoring criteria

Data availability S&F of materials and components

• Technical competence – expertise within team

• Scale likelihood & specificity of interventionScale, likelihood & specificity of intervention

• Collaborators on board

• Politics novelty and impact in multiple sectors the• Politics, novelty and impact in multiple sectors – the ‘wow’ factor

• Cross-over with known criticalities or scarcities

• Complexity vs simplicity – system boundary clearly defined?

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2Chosen case studies2

Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticality

Chosen case studies

Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticalityWind turbinesWind turbines + low-CO2 reinforced

concrete

Electric vehiclesElectric vehicles

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Model StructureModel Structure

Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

Abstract Structure: Components: Materials Abstract stock of the

required service level

Structure:physical

stock of infra-structure that

Components: physical stock

of infrastructure parts that

Materials stocks

contained in both

directly supplies the

service

pindirectly

provide the service

infrastructure and

components

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Case study: wind powerCase study: wind power

Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

Wind Power Structures: Components: NeodymiumWind Power Structures:Onshore and offshore wind

turbines

Components: Permanent

magnet generators

Neodymium

g(PMGs); non-

PMGs

Excluded: Transmission; Other renewables generation

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Model Structure: dynamic S&FModel Structure: dynamic S&F

Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)

Infrastructure stock

Structure stock

Component stock

Materials stockstock

K(i) (t)stock

K(s) (t)stock

K(c) (t)stock

K(m) (t)

O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)

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Model Structure: lifetimesModel Structure: lifetimes

Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials

I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)

Infrastructure stock

Structure stock

Component stock

Materials stockgy

mix

nt mi

x

ntens

ity

stock

K(i) (t)stock

K(s) (t)stock

K(c) (t)stock

K(m) (t)

Tech

nolog

Comp

one

Mater

ial in

O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)

St t lif ti C t lif ti M t i l lif ti

T C M18

Structure lifetimeL (s) (t, t0)

Component lifetimeL (c) (t, t0)

Material lifetimeL (m) (t, t0)

Scenario input: wind powerScenario input: wind power

Future UK wind generation (DECC, 2010)

Scenarios also contain technology mix (from which materials mix iswhich materials mix is derived)

~ current UK electricity capacity

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Results – Nd demandResults Nd demand

Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind power technology

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Results – Nd demand (<2025)Results Nd demand (<2025)

Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind power technology

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Future Additions: Criticality?Future Additions: Criticality?

UK Low Carbon Technology Share of World Production

4%

5%

on

3%

4%

d pr

oduc

tio

Wi d % d

2%

of w

orld

Nd Wind % prod

Car % prodCombined %

1%Shar

e o

220%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Scenario input – electric vehiclesScenario input electric vehicles

~ current UK vehicles registered

Future UK electric vehicles (total)

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Future UK electric vehicles (total)

Results – Li demandResults Li demand

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Results – Pt potential recyclateResults Pt potential recyclate

Lowest annual peak is equivalent to£6 billion (present

k t i )market price)

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2Summary2Summary

• Potential for low-CO2 infrastructure roll-out to be disruptedPotential for low CO2 infrastructure roll out to be disrupted by materials criticality: thus assessments of vulnerability need to be inniiated to inform policy decisions

• Enhanced stocks & flows models can highlight likely criticalities: advanced models will enumerate vulnerability

A ll ‘ t i ’ t ti l f i ifi t• As well as ‘scare stories’, potential for significant resource recovery from the infrastructure can also be identified

• Work in progressWork in progress…

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