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Emerging Risks and Disruptive
Trends in (Global) Supply Chain
Networks
Dipl.-Ing. Johannes Göllner, MSc
Head of the Section Knowledge Management
National Defence Academy,
Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sports
Strategic Foresight Analysis
Workshop-Helsinki officers’ club “Katajanokan Kasino”, Helsinki, Finland
21-22 October, 2015
Dr. Joachim Klerx
Senior Researcher
Innovation Systems Department
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH
Presenter:
Agenda:
• Disruptive trends and emerging risks
• Threats and fear as driver for future conflicts– Future threats and developments in cyber security
– Environmental threats and risks, that might cause future conflicts
– Future public infrastructure and governance
• Global supply chain networks– information & communication networks,
– finance-networks, crypto-currencies,
– resource networks,
– Physical internet
• Capability development options possible options for solutions
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Threats and fear as driver for future conflicts
Typical topics in future
threat discussions in
industrialized countries
Typical topics in future
threat discussions in non
industrialized countries
• Terrorist attacks
• Cyber attacks
• Espionage
• Organized crime
• Sound pollution
• Light pollution
• High tech threats
• CBRN
• Financial market instability
• New technology discussions
• Instability in resource markets
• Environmental damage
• High technology waste
• Climate threats
• Extreme weather
• Resources scarcity
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Scanning the internet with the threat identification agent (TIA)
Source: EU-FP7-project: European Security Trends and Threats In Society (ETTIS), www.ettis-project.eu,
ending-date: 2014
Future threats and developments in cyber security
Right to be informed
Right to deleteProactive
protection
Clear identity rules Clear rules
for usage
AnonymityFreedom of speech
IPR for data
Cber Future
2030Geoshifts in cyber innovation, from industrialized countries to new economies
2040A new power on the horizon - Global virtual communities
2020Virtual currencies, infiltrated by organized crime
2035Intelligent sensors and tracking: finding anything, anywhere, anytime
2025New advanced persistent threats (APT) with intelligent autonomous bots, reconnaissance of future hybrid wars
Competition of large scale SIGINT systems
End of exponential increase of computing powerUbiquitous but filtered information
Increasing amount of mobile and embedded clients
Increasing asymmetric knowledge in cyber security
Factual unlimited storage in the cloud
Disru
ptive
Events
Trend
s
Prices explosion of Zero day exploits
A droid for all seasons
Dark-netsGlobal black hacker
industry
Insider attacks
Cyber warfare
Black markets for information
A society of surveillance
Network breakdown –accidental or
natural
Threats TrendsSocial Needs Weak Signals
Quantum computing
Magnonic Computing
Ultra-paranoid computing
Environmental threats and risks, that might cause future conflicts
Dead zones (Ocean)
Collapse of space waste
Water pollution and peak water
Surprising side effects of genetic
engineering
Environment Future
2030Protecting Air Quality: The Effects of Air Pollution in Developed and Developing Countries
2040Demographic developments are correlated to natural resources
2020Common standards for environmental protection
2035Sources of climate change are clear an supports a common strategy on climate protection
2025Saving Lives Through Disaster Prediction
Light pollution in industrialized countries
Globalization of food fraud
Plastic garbage patches in the ocean
Acidification of ocean
Deforestation, loss of biodiversity and desertification
Disru
ptive
Events
Trend
s
Bio-Breakout: A World Swept by
Pandemics
Agro-terrorism
Impact of a Cataclysmic Seismic Event
Threats TrendsSocial Needs Weak Signals
Land pollution with human wasteAir pollution without boarders
Noise pollution on land and sea
Eco-Terrorism
Genes from GMOs Proliferate in Nature
Nuclear material in food
Increasing amount of nuclear waste
Clean Nature
Future public infrastructure and governance
Globalized Migration: Complex Human
Transfers
Peer to peer nets against surveillance
Globalisatio and strategic sourcing
Future public infrastructure
2030Establishment of international armed forces to protect supply chain networks
2020New forms of supply chain networks and increasing interdependence between these networks
2035Conflicts about power and influence in the new supply chain networks
2025A new power on the horizon –Information management for supply chain networks
New players in the struggle about political influence
Disru
ptive
Events
Trend
s
Nuclear espionage of non state actorsThe shape of Islam in
the 21st century
Uncontrolled release of
nuclear waste Dirty Bombs and CBRN terrorism
Threats TrendsSocial Needs Weak Signals
The Risks of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism
Declining recruitment rates of armed forces
Epistemic networks in organized crime
Increasing power of transnational
corporations
Globalization of criminal networks
Digitalization with increasing speed
Globalization and strategic sourcing
Political and commercial
disinformation
Democracy and terrorism
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Supply Chain Security:
(FOCUS: Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a
Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, EU-FP 7
programe)
The “threat side of the Supply chain security equation” –
including exogenous threats to EU - is not well covered in
the literature today.
Instead, most of the literature refers vaguely to “terrorism
threat” or “cargo crime” as main reasons behind Supply
chain security programs, standards and regulations. (see D5.1 www.focusproject.eu , page 99, point 8.3, Ending Date: 31/03/2013)
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
ERM
IKT
PRODUCTION
FINANCE
HRM
R&Detc.
relation: Organisation – Supply Chain Networks – ORM, J.Goellner
META Supply Chain Networks ORM
- Supply Networks
- Basic Networks
- Govermental &
Public/Administration Networks
Meta Supply Chain ModelOrganisational Risk Management (ORM)
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
e.g.:
• Financial Networks
• Resource/Raw Material Networks (criticality)
• Food Supply Network
• Water Supply Network
• etc.
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
• Transport/Traffic-Networks
– (Air, Road, Railway, Water)
• ICT-Networks (+/-: Smart Grids)
• Energy Networks (+/-: Smart Grids)
Su
pp
ly N
etw
ork
sB
asic
Netw
ork
s
Govern
menta
l&
Public
-/A
dm
inis
tration N
etw
ork
s
Description of (Global) Supply Chain Networks:
J. Goellner, 2015
Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mineral Fuels Iron & Ferro Alloys Non Ferrous Ind. Min Precious Metals
World Mining Productionby groups of minerals
Without bauxite and construction materials
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
extrem unstable unstable fair stable
World Mining Productionby political stability of the producer countries
Without bauxite and construction materials
Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1.00E+04 1.00E+05 1.00E+06 1.00E+07 1.00E+08 1.00E+09 1.00E+10
Mountain PassBayan Obo
Measured, indicated and inferred resources in metr. t
(L. WEBER & J. LIU, 2015)R
EE
gra
de
in %
REE-Resources by continents
Africa
Jongju
N-Korea
Oceania Asia Europe N-America S-America
Size in metr. t
m=2,908 Mio tm=1,595 Mio t (excl. Jongiu)
Distribution of global REE resources
by continents(incl. / excl. Jongiu)
Europe (17,6% ) 32,4% (!)
North-America (13,3% ) 24,4%
Africa ( 8,9% ) 16,7%
Asia (52,4%) 12,5% (!)
Oceania ( 6,0%) 11,0%
Latin America ( 1,6%) 3,0 %
13
Crypto currencies as disruptive trend for international supply chain
networks
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
• Physical encapsulation– No direct "grab" the products
– Standardised encapsulation
– Analogy to the digital internet
• Digital encapsulation– Smart boxes/containers
• Interfaces for universal networking– PI-Container (FP 7-Project MODULUSHCA)
– PI-forklift, -conveyors, -warehouse
– PI-protocol for optimized universal networking
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Physical Internet (PI):
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Physical Internet: FP 7-Project MODULUSHCASupply Chain Application
New Concept for logistics operations:
http://www.modulushca.eu
• Development of a monitoring solution:
– „Supply Chain Monitoring Solution“,
• e.g. in analogy to the first guideline of Working Group: Supply Chain Risk
Management of the Risk Management Association, Munich, Germany (2013-
2015) (https://www.rma-ev.org/Veroeffentlichung-zum-Download.696.0.html)
– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysis
of strategic resource/raw material-SRA“ (www.kiras.at, 2014-12/2015)
– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysis
of cyber security“,
• e.g. in analogy to the „Cyber Documentation and Research Center“, Dept.
of Central Documentation & Information, National Defence Academy of the
Austrian MoD, (10/2014-ongoing)
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Capability development options:
• Design or re-design the supply chain network stuctures
– Peer to Peer structure (decentralized) vs centralized managed
supply chain network,
• remark: but loss of state sovereignity because of increasing peer to peer
structure of supply chain network.
– How to protect and attack decentralized supply chain network?
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Capability development options:
Thank you for your attention !
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Johannes GOELLNER
Head of Section Knowledge Management
Dept. of Central Documentation & Information,
National Defense Academy,
Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sport
A-1070 Vienna, Stiftgasse 2a, Austria
mobil: +43-650-2252991
email: [email protected]
JOACHIM KLERX
Innovation Systems Department
Research, Technology & Innovation Policy
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH
A-1220 Vienna, Donau-City-Straße 1, Austria
T +43(0) 50550-4546 | F +43(0) 50550-4599
email: [email protected]
http://www.ait.ac.at
For further information, question and specific interest,
please contact:
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks