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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Take Hold of the Future Global trends, disrup7ve technologies and managing risks

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

Complexity and scale create risks

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Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

Benchmarking is toxic to risk management

Agility

Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday

Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday

10%

Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday

Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday

50%

Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday

Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday

100%

What is the future of the global

ECONOMY

WGP 2005-2014 (%,constant prices)

Vietnam GDP 1985-2011

>40% WDP in Asia by 2015 IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity 50% populaMon in India under 25 years old

$3.4 trillion

$2.4 trillion

Reserves

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

The greatest risk for every financial

institution is

REPUTATION

The future is aboutEMOTION

300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

Science, technology engineering,

maths

Most STEM graduates in emerging markets

China and India dominate

STEM degrees including post-graduate / PhDs

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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years

1 week every 4

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time

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Immigration Remittances

Drive Payment Innovation

Older Customers

Huge New Markets

Fluidics Biochemistry Semiconductors Genetics Mathematics Immunology Robotics

Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000

Pigs teeth grown inside rats Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum

Grow New Teeth

following coronary / stroke using adult stem cells

Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells

Build Nanotech Robots

Confidential

HSV1 causes cold sores. When engineered as Seprehvir (HSV-1716), it is harmless to healthy @ssue.

Oncolytic viruses Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Evidence of impact in clinical trials Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy

Viruses to cure cancer ?

63

After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay

Monkeys on diet live longer

Slow or no ageing is a reality

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years

Some animals do not seem to age in normal way

1 trillion pages a month

People love Cities and Offices

Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)

Globalised + Barriers Problem of Scale

VW mega platformVW Mega Pla\orm - basis for 1 m cars

11% wage inflaMon in China in 2013 and 2014

Nearshoring Boom

In many EU naMons, up to 70% of retail spending is in

e-commerce hits $1.5 trillion 2014 12% all UK retail

MOBILE Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013

50% of all UK online sales are using mobile

LocaMon MarkeMng

is next BIG THING

Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil

50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online

89% want digital information in store

Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home

Over 4000 road hauliers in EU

1.3bn home delivered e-com items in UK a year (+12% pa)

84

3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries

Internet of Things

1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain

$5bn home automation market

1.7bn mobile users - no bank account Kenya - 17m customers use mPesa $9bn pa - >33% GDP

90

EU card issuance/ debt - LOW / ZERO GROWTHRegulation and competition - MARGINS CUT

BIG FINES FOR PAYMENT SYSTEMS FAILURES

Payment Revenues Crisis

Value of Euro notes 2002-2013

in circulaMon

CASH BOOM in EU

Bitcoin Bubble and Bust? Secret and untraceable

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

2010 2013 2015

TelcoBanks

90% Microsoh R&D SalesForce R&D > $3bn pa

CLOUD

Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute

90% all global data

generated in last 2 years

Big Data Sales, underwriMng, fraud

Talking to customers on journey of life

Death of traditional marketing

Future of Household Appliances and

RoboMcs ?

Digital Control

We can fuse brain and

Overwhelming CYBERATTACKS

from States or criminals

Web of Things - Big Data - Cloud 180bn spam emails a day

600m new viruses, malware, trojans a year >220m peoples details lost in single alack 70% large corporaMons have been hacked

100,000 alacks an hour on US Navy Paralysis of Estonia government in 2007

Worries about US, Russia, China penetraMon of web / cloud following Prism

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBEC from ARIZONA MOSCOW from SAHARA

Solar cell generation parity

Solar Cells $ /wal 1990-2015

subsidies

Price Parity

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

Why China will dominate wind power industry 40% EU power = wind by 2050

Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?

Managing Peak GeneraMon In June 2013 electricity prices in Germany became negaMve - EU150 / MWhr

Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years

New Street Lamps save 3%

national energy

do things you really believe in Life is Short

Compliance does not make you ethical

Teams in top half of Engagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable

Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people

Lesson from Non-Profits and AcMvists

Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the

ends of the earth, promote what you do with pride, and may even be willing to

work for you for next to nothing

. and the four word phrase is .

Building a Beler World

The Magic of every great Business

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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

globalchange.com 15 million visitors

5 million video views

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