Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 4 - June …...AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP flow of traffic on the Suez Canal. As a result, the Canal’s revenues declined from US$ 425

A F R I C A N D E V E L O P M E N T B A N K G R O U P

Overview

Egypt’s economic performance remains subdued amidst the ongoing political andsocial unrest and insecurity. A year into President Morsi taking over power as Egypt'sfirst freely elected President, the country remained politically divided. After days ofmass rallies culminating with June 30 anti-Morsi protests, the army ousted the Pre-sident, temporarily suspended the constitution, and on July 4, 2013, Adly MahmudMansour, a top judge of Egypt's Constitutional Court, was sworn in to oversee thepolitical transition. In this context the Egyptian economy continue to face challengesof restoring macroeconomic stability and investor confidence, and putting public fi-nances on a sustainable fiscal path. Delays in finalizing the deal with the IMF for theUS$ 4.8 billion Stand-By Arrangement have pushed back reforms to after parlia-mentary elections later this year. Egypt’s external sector continues to be faced withdownside risks that are exacerbated by a depreciating currency, as foreign exchangereserves dwindle. Although worker remittances remain supportive, performance ofthe manufacturing sector, a major employment generator remains sub-optimal. Sta-bilization of the political situation is urgently needed to restore investor confidenceand lure back investors.

This report is the fourth of a series of Economic Quarterly Reviews on Egypt by the African DevelopmentBank (AfDB)’s Country Office inEgypt. It covers Egypt’s economic per-formance up to May 2013, based ondata, which was available at the time ofits publication. The report comprises ofthe following sections:

Economic Growth p. 2Employment and Unemployment p. 4Monetary Sector p. 4Financial Sector p. 6Public Finances p. 7External Sector p. 9Public Debt p. 10Development and MacroeconomicIndicators (Annex I) p. 11Economic Statistics and Charts (Annex II) p. 12

Sibry TAPSOBAResident Representative [email protected].: +202 22 563 790 / 1Ext.: 6730

Charles MUTHUTHIChief Country Economist [email protected].: +202 22 563 790 / 1Ext.: 6748

www.afdb.org

Volume 4 | June 2013

1 Egypt’s fiscal year starts on 1 July and concludes on 30 June. The four quarters making thecountry’s fiscal year are: July-September (Q1); October-December (Q2); January-March (Q3); andApril-June (Q4).

Key Highlights• Real Growth Domestic Product (GDP) slowed down to 2.2% and 2.3% in Q2

and Q3 of 2012/13, respectively, after spiking to 5.2% in Q3, 2011/121.• Unemployment Rate climbed to 13.2% during Q1, 2013 compared to 12.6% in

the same quarter in 2012.• Annual Inflation (Urban Consumer Price Index) accelerated in 2013, from 7.6%

in March to 8.2% in May, because of higher prices of imports.• On Monetary Policy, the Central Bank retained discount rate at March 2012 level

of 10.25% to balance growth against rising inflation. • Exchange Rate depreciated by 14% against the US, from EGP6.15 in Decem-

ber 2012 to EGP 7 in June 2013. • Net International Reserves increased marginally from US$14 billion (bn) in De-

cember 2012 to US$16 bn by end-May 2013.• Balance of Payments deficit narrowed to US$2.1 bn in March 2013 from

US$11.2 bn in March 2012 due to favorable external factors. • Budget deficit widened to 11.8% of GDP in May 2013 from 8.8% in May 2012

as government postpones planned austerity measures. • Domestic Public Debt slightly decreased to 77.6% of GDP by end-December

2012, compared to 80.3% of GDP by end-June 2012.• External Debt remains at a manageable level of 13.8% of GDP or US$ 38.8 bn

by end-December 2012.

This report was prepared by Charles Muthuthi (Chief Country Economist, EGFO) with inputs by ZeinabHassan (Statistical Assistant, EGFO) under the supervision of Sibry Tapsoba (Resident Representative,EGFO)

ST EQR juillet 2013_ST EQR juillet 2013 05/08/13 15:04 Page1

Economic Growth

The uncertainty created by a prolon-ged political transition in Egypt’scontinue to hold back real gross do-mestic product (GDP) growth at 2.2%in Q2 2012/13 (Figure 1). Growth is li-kely to soften further to 2% by theend of this fiscal year (FY) 2012/13.Nevertheless for FY 2013/14, and FY2014/15, we project that growthwould accelerate to 3%, and 4.5% ifpolitical uncertainty recede. Growthduring the nine months ending March2013 was tepid at 2.3% after spikingabove 5% in Q3 2011/12. Egypt’s slug-gish growth performance over the firsthalf of fiscal year (FY) 2012/13 was sup-ported by private and public sectorconsumption (93% of GDP) but restrai-

ned by investment spending (16% ofGDP), and exports (18% of GDP). In Q22012/13 total consumption expandedby 15%, y/y, investment by 1%, y/y, andexports by 7%, y/y. Imports grew by15%, y/y much faster than exports, overthe same period. These results broughtin nominal GDP at Egyptian pound (EGP)438 billion (bn) in Q2 2012/13, againstEGP 394 bn in Q 2 2011/12, an 11%,y/y increase (Annex II, 1). Policy makers,however, would be concerned as popu-lation growth outstripped economicgrowth in Q1 2012/13 as real GDP percapita turned negative (Figure 1), pus-hing more Egyptians into poverty.

In terms of gross value added, eco-nomic performance was mixed in keysectors of extractions, agriculture,

and manufacturing. Agriculture thathad a Q2, 2012/13 contribution to GDPof 15.6% continued to be resilient, gro-wing by 3% and 2.9% during the firsthalf of FYs 2011/12 and 2012/13, res-pectively. Manufacturing with a Q2,2012/13 contribution to GDP of 15.5%contracted by 3.1% during the first halfFY 2011/12 but grew by 2.4% in the firsthalf of the current FY 2012/13. Extrac-tions that in Q2, 2012/13 contributed16.5% of Egypt’s GDP, however,contracted by 0.8% and 0.7% over thefirst half of FYs 2011/12 and 2012/13,respectively. Performance in the tourismand Suez Canal sectors remained vola-tile; tourism that had contracted by 8.6%during the first half of FY 2011/12 grewby 6.8% during a similar period this FYwhile Suez Canal’s value added, that

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Egypt Country Office | Economic Quarterly Review | Volume 4 | June 2013


Figure 1 Egypt's Real GDP and GDP Per Capita Growth Rates (Quarterly Data)

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt.

was 7.2% during the first half of FY2011/12 contracted by 3.6% during thefirst half of this FY. Performance of thecommunication sector has remainedsolid while the construction sector’s per-formance has been mixed as shown inAnnex II, 1.

The uncertain economic environ-ment continue to weigh down hea-vily on Egypt’s Total ProductionIndex (TPI) with tourism slowly reco-vering amidst ongoing unrests andgrowing insecurity (Figures 2 and 3,and Annex II, 10). The TPI that incor-

porates 60% of the country’s economicoutput fell slightly in April 2013 by 0.5%y/y to 179.5%, but remain far lowerthan its January 2011 pre-revolutionlevel of 202.9%. The intensification ofprotests in Port Said, Suez and Ismai-lia in January 2013 has reduced the


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flow of traffic on the Suez Canal. As aresult, the Canal’s revenues declinedfrom US$ 425 bn monthly in December2012 to US$ 407 bn in March 2013(Annex II, 3). Looking ahead, the 1 May2013 rate hikes by 2-5% for vesselstransiting through the Canal will so-

mewhat mitigate loses in revenues thatmay arise from reduced traffic. Thetourism sector is showing modestsigns of recovery as tourists return al-though the sector has not regained itspre-revolution potential (Figure 3 andAnnex II, 4). The sector’s revenues de-

clined slightly to US$ 2.9 bn in Q22012/13, from US$ 2.4 bn over thesame period last year. Before the revo-lution, the Egypt’s tourism sectorcontributed about 25% of foreign ex-change earnings, and supportedaround 12% of the labor force.

Figure 2 Egypt's Selected Production Indices (%)

Total Produc�on Index (Le� Scale) Suez Canal Index (y/y Growth, Right Scale)

Tourism Index (y/y Growth, Right Scale) Manufacturing Index (y/y Growth, Right Scale)

Source: AfDB based on Ministry of Planning data.

Figure 3 Tourist Arrivals and Nights (Thousands)

Source: AfDB based on Data by the Central Bank of Egypt & CAPMAS.


Employment and Unemployment

Egypt’s unemployment rate climbedto 13.2% during the first quarter of2013 (calendar year) from 12.6% in thesame quarter of 2012, according tothe Central Agency for Public Mobili-zation and Statistics (CAPMAS), in thebackdrop of the uncertain businessenvironment. The current unemploy-ment rate level is higher than the averageunemployment rate in Egypt of 9.9%over the decade ending 2009/10 (Figure4). If the uncertain economic climate per-sists, projections show that unemploy-ment rate is likely to surpass 14% in FY2013/14. Unofficial estimates indicate

that the overall unemployment rate inEgypt exceed 20%. The country’s privatesector, which employ about 73% of thelabor force and contributes close to62.8% of the country’s GDP, continue tounderperforms because of uncertaintyregarding the trajectory of governmentpolicies thus slowing down its potentialto create jobs.

On a positive note, however, Egypt’sagricultural sector continues to be themajor employer by absorbing about athird of the labor force that is estima-ted at 26 million, of whom 22% arewomen. Egypt’s labor force participationrate —ratio between the labor force and

the corresponding size of the populationaged 15-64 years— climbed higher thanthe long term average of 31% (baseddata from 2000 to 2011) to reach 33% in2011 (Figure 4) or as high as 49% basedon the International Labor Organization’sdata. First quarter 2013 data show thatabout 36 mn Egyptians were unem-ployed: an increase of 63,000 personsfrom the previous quarter. Further statis-tics indicate that the youth with highereducation attainment are the most adver-sely affected by joblessness given thatonly two out of ten find jobs. The unem-ployment rate among women was 25%during the first quarter of 2013; more thandouble that for men that stood at 9.7%.

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Figure 4 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt.

Monetary Sector

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)’s Mo-netary Policy Committee meeting ofMay 9, 2013 decided to hold ratessteady at their March 2013 level, in adelicate trade-off between need tobolster the faltering growth, and on theother hand the desire to curtail the up-ward inflationary pressures. Interest

rates therefore remain on hold at theirMarch 2013 levels: the overnight depositand lending rates at 9.75% and 10.75%,respectively, and the discount rate at10.25% (Figure 5). Nonetheless, the ex-panding government debt has causedthe one-year T-Bills rate to increase to anaverage of 14.4%, over the July-April2013 period, from 11.5% during the FY2010/11.

Because of mounting inflationary pres-sures, the annual headline inflationrate (as measured by the urbanConsumer Price Index, CPI), and thecore inflation rate, picked up in May2013 to 8.2% and 8%, from 6.27% and5.23%, in January 2013, respectively.Egypt’s urban consumer inflation thataveraged 8.6% in FY 2011/12 is expec-ted to rise moderately to 9.5% in FY


2012/13, and increase above 13% in FY2013/14, pushed up by a depreciatingcurrency and higher prices of commodityimports, mainly food and fuel. CBE viewsstructural bottlenecks in the supply anddistribution channels for diesel fuels asanother source of inflationary risks goingforward. Further inflationary risks are ex-pected to remain elevated once the go-vernment embarks on planned austeritymeasures that will reduce fuel subsidies.

Expansion of the monetary aggre-gate (M2) by 18.3%, y/y to EGP 1,253bn in April 2013 from 1,059 bn a yearearlier, amidst worsening fiscal posi-tion, larger debt, and expandingconsumption, could further exacer-bate inflation. The growth in moneysupply exceeds the pre-revolution his-torical growth of 9% over the 2008 to2011 period. As a % of GDP the M2monetary aggregate increased to69.58% in March 2013, from 67.2% inMarch 2012 (Figure 5). In March 2013,

Money (M1) —M0 plus local currencydemand deposits— grew by 25.3% y/yto EGP 326.5 bn, while Quasi Money —includes time and savings deposits inboth local and foreign currencies—in-creased by 14.6% y/y to EGP 910 bn.The monetary base, that is reservemoney (M0) —currency in circulationand the banking sector deposits held atthe CBE— expanded at a slower rate of11.8% y/y to EGP 281 bn in March2013. Speculation about devaluationcould raise dollarization —foreign cur-rency holdings as a proportion of moneysupply— which would be accompaniedby demonetization, —decrease in theratio of M2 to GDP— which has adverseeffects on the economy.

The recent depreciation of the Egyp-tian pound could stoke higher impor-ted inflation —Egypt is a net importerof food items— as well as lead torent-seeking activities that would fur-ther destabilize the foreign exchange

market. The currency has depreciatedagainst the US$ by about 14%, fromEGP6.15 in December 2012 to EGP7 inJune 2013 despite CBE running downforeign reserves from US$ 35 bn to US$16 bn over the same period (Figure 6). Ablack market has emerged where theUS$ is selling at between EGP7.60 andEGP7.85, compared to EGP 7.0053,the cut-off rate CBE sold US$38.3m ina recent forex auction. To better ma-nage the foreign exchange market theCBE in May 2013 exceptionally offeredto banks US$ 800 mn in a foreign ex-change for financing of imports of es-sential goods. A similar auction in April2013 saw CBE selling US$600 mn.CBE introduced in December 2012 US$currency auctions, and limited controlsin a bid to stave off tumbling foreign re-serves. Looking ahead, it is expectedthat the EGP would continue weakeningslowly in FY 2013/14, but would reco-ver towards FY 2014/15 as political sta-bility returns.

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Figure 5 Monetary Sector Indicators

01020304050607080

02468

10121416

Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April

2011 2012 2013Infla�on Rate (CPI urban, Le� Scale, %) CBE Discount Rate (Le� Scale, %)

3 Month T Bills Interest Rate (Le� Scale, %) M2 / GDP (Right Scale, %)

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt and Ministry of Finance.


Financial Sector

Despite CBE’s accommodative mone-tary policy stance, financial marketsconditions remain unfavorable mainlybecause of continued policy uncer-tainty. Deposits in the banking system in-creased to EGP 1,147.8 bn in March 2013,or by 14.2%, y/y. During this period, credit

facilities in the banking system rose by8.2% y/y, to EGP 536.7 bn in March 2013.This growth was mainly driven by credit tothe private sector that by March 2013 hadexpanded by 8.7%, y/y. The outstandingstock of government securities rose by20% to EGP 767.7 bn at end-March 2013from EGP 638.9 at end-March 2012. Asthe growth of the stock of government se-

curities of 20% far exceed the growth ofcredit to the private sector of 8.7%, itwould appear that there is crowding out oflending to the private sector. By end-March2013, the loan to deposits ratio stood at46.9% compared to 49.8% in March 2012.Finally, the ratio of nonperforming loans, asa percentage of total loans, was 10% byend-December 2012.

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Figure 6 Egypt's International Reserves and US$ Exchange Rate

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16 16 15 15 16 16 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 14 16

5,45,65,86,06,26,46,66,87,07,2

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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

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Net Interna�onal Reserves (US$ bn, Le� Scale) EGP / US$ Exchange Rate (Right Scale)

Source: AfDB based on data by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance and Central Bank.

Figure 7 Financial Sector Indicators

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CPI (Le� Scale, %) 3 Months T-Bills Rate (Le� Scale, %)1 Year T-Bills (Le� Scale, %) EGX 30 (Right Scale, Index)

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt , Ministry of Finance and STock Exchange Market.


Stock market capitalization decreasedin value by 2.1% from EGP 362.5 bn asat end-March 2012 to EGP 355 bn asat end-March 2013 during the ongoingprotracted political transition. In June2013, the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) indexdropped by 8% (409.26 points equivalentto a loss of EGP 25.8 bn) in one weekafter Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI) warned that it may consider ex-cluding Egypt’s Index from the MSCIEmerging Markets Index because of likelyforeign currency repatriating difficulties.The EGX index remains well below thepre-revolution and pre-global financial cri-sis, levels of 5,647 points in January2011, and 11,787 points in April 2008,respectively (Figure 7). Despite high vola-tility since the January 2011 revolution,the EGX index recorded an impressive2012 growth, with over 25% growth intrading volume, and about 50 points in-crease from the 2011 close, making theexchange the third best performer world-wide. Recent upward inflationary pres-sures, however, may erode real returns onEGX 30 as Figure 7 illustrates. The Figurealso shows that after the revolution re-turns from EGX 30 stocks are far lower

than yields on government T-bills. Thiscould indicate that because of low valua-tions, underlying corporate strength andinflation protection, stocks are far muchmore attractive long-term investments inEgypt, compared to government T-bills.

Since the revolution, the credit defaultswap (CDS) spreads on Egyptian go-vernment debt has been widening tohistorical highs following severaldowngrades by all global rating agen-cies because of worsening politicalrisk in the country. The downgradescontinued after renewed violence latelast year, and failure by the governmentto secure financial support from the In-ternational Monetary Fund (IMF). In De-cember 2012, Standard and Poor’s(S&P) cut Egypt’s credit rating to junklevel at B- rating, six steps below invest-ment grade. This was followed by Fitchand Moody’s, who cut Egypt's sovereignrating from "B+" to "B" in January 2013,and from B2 to B3 in February 2013,respectively. On May 9, 2013 S&P fur-ther downgraded Egypt’s sovereign cre-dit rating to C with a stable outlook sitingrisks to growth that may emanate from

currency depreciation, continuing politi-cal unrest, double-digit inflation and lar-ger trade deficits.

Public Finances

Risks to Egypt’s public finances haveincreased significantly during the po-litical transition as the authoritiescontinue to adopt an accommodativefiscal policy stance amidst low tax re-venues. The resulting high fiscal defi-cit and public debt call for fiscalreforms and consolidation to curtailthe wasteful fuel and energy subsi-dies. The budget sector’s fiscal deficitfor the period July-May 2012/13 rose by50% to EGP 204.9 bn (11.8% of GDP),from EGP 136.5 bn (8.8% of GDP) in thesame period last year (Figure 8). Auste-rity measures that the government hadplanned to introduce in FY 2012/13, andthat would have resulted in fuel subsidycuts did not materialize. We therefore ex-pect Egypt's budget deficit for the FY2012/13 to be about 12% of GDP upfrom 10.8% of GDP (EGP 166.7 bn) in2011/12.

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Figure 8 Fiscal Operations (EGP bn)

Source: AfDB from data by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance.


8



Revenues increased by 4.5%, y/y toEGP 271 bn during the period July-May 2012/13, driven by increase in taxrevenues by 14%, y/y to EGP 204.5 bn.Over the fiscal years 2007/08 to 2011/12,tax revenues on average comprised: in-come tax (47%), consumption taxes(39%), trade taxes (8%), property taxes(4%), and other taxes (2%). Income andconsumption taxes during the periodJuly- May 2012/13 amounted to EGP91.74 bn and EGP 80.1 bn, respectively.Over the period July-May 2012/13, theEgyptian General Petroleum Corporation(EGPC), and the Suez Canal Authority(SCA), both state owned enterprises, paid

EGP 25.75 bn (28%) and EGP 10.8 bn(11.77%) of the total taxes on income.Over this period, personal income taxesamounted to EGP 18 bn (19.6%) of thetotal. Tax reforms that are being conside-ration as part of the discussions with theIMF aim to raise sales taxes on severalgoods to mobilize about EGP 13 bn inadditional tax revenues.

Expenditures during the period July-May 2012/13 increased by 19.6% toreach EGP 474.3 bn, thus outpacingrevenue growth. In FY 2011/12, about77% of government spending was onpublic debt service (22%), subsidies

(26%), and wages and salaries (29%)(Figure 9). This proportion rose to 79.1%during the July-May 2012/13 period withwages and salaries absorbing 25.9%(EGP 123 bn), public debt service, 26.3%(EGP 125 bn), and subsidies, 26.8%(EGP 127 bn). Over this period, food sub-sidies (paid to the General Authority forSupply Commodities, GASC) increasedby 13.7% to EGP 29.1 bn, while theenergy subsidies (paid to EGPC) decrea-sed by 3% to EGP 84.4 bn. Investmentspending remain low increasing by 16%to EGP 27.6 bn over the period July-May2012/13 compared to EGP 23.77 bnover the same period last year.

Figure 9 Government Expenditures (EGP bn)

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2010 2011 2012 2013 (Budget)Total Expenditure (EGP bn, Right Scale) Subsidies (%, Le�Scale)Interest Payments (%,Le� Scale) Wages and Salaries (%, Le� Scale)Purchase of non financial assets (%, Le� Scale)

Source: AfDB based on data by Egyptian Ministry of Finance.

Among other reforms on energy subsi-dies, the government has announcedthat it will ration subsidized fuel througha system of smart cards that will capthe amount of fuel drivers would ac-cess. Although energy prices were raisedin April 2012 for energy-intensive indus-

tries, from US$4 - US$6 per million BritishThermal Units (BTUs), and from US$2.25 -US$3 BTUs, for medium energy-intensiveindustries, the budget savings envisaged inthe 2012/13 budget will broadly not be rea-lized. A modified economic reform pro-gramme that the government has

presented to the IMF aims to reduce spen-ding in the range of EGP 10-12 bn duringthe fiscal year 2013/14. However detailsrelating to the implementation of the fuel ra-tioning system as well other reforms remainscanty, and will most likely be pushed backafter parliamentary elections later this year.


9



External Sector

Egypt’s balance of payments (BOP)deficit narrowed from US$ 11.2 bn atend-March 2012 to US$ 2.1 bn atend-March 2013. The country’s ba-lances on the current account, and thecapital & financial accounts stood at adeficit of US$ 3.9 bn and a surplus ofUS$ 4.3 bn by end-March 2013, com-pared to deficits of US$ 7.1 bn and 2.6bn, at end-March 2012. The trade defi-cit narrowed by US$ 0.7 bn, tourism re-ceipts and worker remittances eachincreased by US$ 1 bn and the capitaland financial accounts recorded a netinflow of US$ 4.3 bn. Qatar and Libyahave been supporting by providingEgypt with aid and loan packages worthU$5 bn and US$2 bn, respectively. Qa-tari and Libya deposits at the CBE en-abled Egypt’s Net International Reservesto climb marginally from US$14 bn inDecember 2012 to US$16 bn by end-May 2013.

As the global economic activity pickedup, Egypt’s merchandise exports rose by3.7% to US$ 19.8 bn during the ninemonths ending March 2013. Over thisperiod, merchandise imports remainedflat, and therefore, the trade deficit narro-wed by 2.7% to US$ 23.8 bn. The im-provement in the trade balance wassupporting by an increase of 35.8% toUS$ 5.5 bn of the services surplus reflec-ting an increase in tourist nights of 14.1%to 114.6 million. However, Suez Canal re-ceipts underperformed, falling by 3.9% toUS$ 3.8 bn during this period. Figure 10highlight some indicators that underlineEgypt’s current account performance.

The improvement in the capital and fi-nancial account balance was as a resultof several factors. Net portfolio invest-ment outflows slowed down during theperiod July-March 2013 to US$ 0.8 bncompared to US$ 4.6 bn last year, as fo-reigners sold less of their holding ofEgyptian Treasury-Bills. In this regard,

Qatar is offering to buy a US$3 bn inTreasury bonds from Egypt at an interestrate that is under negotiations. Net in-flows of foreign direct investment (FDI)amounted to US$ 1.4 bn during the pe-riod July-March 2013 compared to US$1.2 bn in the same period of the previousyear. Egypt benefited from “greenfield”investments amounting to US$ 1.7 bnover the period July-March 2013,against US$ 2 bn over the same periodlast year.

FDI inflows from the United States increa-sed from US$ 0.17 bn (5% of total FDI) inQ2 2011/12 to US$ 0.56 bn (22.5% oftotal FDI) in Q2 2012/13. FDI inflows fromthe Arab countries, however, decreasedfrom US$ 0.36 bn (28% of total FDI) in Q2 2011/12 to US$ 0.16 bn (13 % of totalFDI) in Q2 2012/13. Furthermore, FDI in-flows from the European Union decreasedby 87% from US$ 0.696 bn (54% of totalFDI) in Q 22012 to US$ 1.3 bn (53% oftotal FDI) in Q2 2012/13.

Figure 10 Egypt's Quarterly External Sector Indicators

Source: AfDB based on Data by the Central Bank of Egypt.


Public Debt

Egypt’s gross domestic debt per capita,has been rising over time, while thosefor external debt have been relativelystable (Figure 11). The country needs abalance sheet adjustment to rebalancedomestic and external debt portfolios.While foreign debt levels remain managea-ble, the level of domestic debt is high, andfurther public sector borrowing thus threa-tens to crowd out access to credit to the pri-vate sector, and in particular, underserved

micro, small and medium enterprise. Thehigh domestic debt ratio is also slowingdown progress towards achieving the go-vernment’s target for public debt ratio of lessthan 60% of GDP by fiscal year 2014/15.

By end-December 2012, external debtstood at US$ 38.8 bn (13.8% of GDP),compared to US$ 33.7 bn (13.2% of GDP)a year earlier. End-December 2012 datashow that about 67.5% of external debts(9.3% of GDP) is owed by the central andlocal government; of this, about 17.1% is

short-term debt. Over the fiscal years co-vering 2005 to 2012 the debt service to ex-ports and debt service to current receiptsaveraged 6.6%, and 5.5%, respectively. Onan annual basis, the external debt ratio toexports of goods and services averaged71.3% during the fiscal years 2009/10 to2011/12. Historically, from 2005 until 2012,Egypt’s external debt per capita, averagedUS$ 409.

Egypt’s gross domestic debt per capitaaveraged US$ 2,127 over the years 2005

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Figure 11 Egypt's Debt Indicators

Source: AfDB based on data by Ministry of Finance.

to 2012, slightly less than the 2010/11 GNIper capita of US$ 2,600. By the end of De-cember 2012, gross domestic public debtrose by 21.8% to EGP 1,380 bn (77.6% ofGDP) compared to EGP 1,132 bn (72.2%of GDP) at the end of December 2011. Go-vernment treasury bills and bonds com-prise about 84% of gross domestic debt,and reached EGP 1,157.9 bn by end-De-cember 2012, an increase of 21.7%, y/y.

The domestic debt burden has been risingsteadily, with rising government securities’interest and principal re pay m ents. Total in-

terest payments as a percentage of the go-vernment sector expenditures reached26.3% over the period July-May 2012/13,from 24.1% during the same period lastyear. Total interest payments and principalpayments on government debt, respecti-vely, rose from EGP 95.5 bn and EGP 35.7bn, during the period July-May 2011/12 toEGP 124.7 bn and EGP 70.3 bn over theperiod July-May 2012/13. As a result, thetotal government debt service amountedto EGP 195.1 bn during the eleven monthsending May 2012/13, compared to EGP131.1 bn over the same period last year.

Yields on government T-bills have beenrising over the past year, and edged clo-ser to 16% during the period July-Au-gust 2012/13. As average yields EGPT-Bills continue to escalate, the govern-ment’s borrowing costs have mountedthus widening the fiscal deficit. From afiscal policy perspective, domestic pu-blic debt poses significant interest rateand budgetary risks. A priority for thegovernment would be to take measuresto re-profile its short-term domesticdebt to longer-term foreign currencydebt.


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Egypt Macroeconomic Indicators

Egypt Development Indicators

Land area997,739 sq km, of which only 5% is inhabited and cultivatedPopulationTotal 87.1 (2011)In Major Towns (May 2013)Cairo: 9,212,291Alexandria: 4,727,356Port Said: 655,983Suez: 612,499

Source: Central Bank of Egypt, Ministry of Finance, Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics, African Economic Outlook, InternationalMonetary Fund, World Development Indicators, and AfDB Staff Estimates.

Annex I Development and Macroeconomic Indicators

Population inside the country 81.1 mn (Jan 2011) 82.5 mn (Jan 2012) 84.5 mn (May,2013)

Annual growth rate 3.3 (4th Quarter 2012) 2.6 (1st Quarter 2013) 2.2 (2nd Quarter 2013)

Labor force, 15 years and above, as % of population in Egypt 84.6 (2009) 48.8 (2010) 48.9 (2011)

Labor force participation rate (%) 29.6 (2000) 31.7 (2006) 33 (2012)

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 2 (2005) 1.69 (2008)

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) 19.6 (2005) 22 (2008)

Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 24.1 (2009) 22.5 (2010) 21.1 (2011)

2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13(est.)

2013/14(proj.)

2014/15(proj.)

Real GDP growth (Annual % Change) 7.2 4.7 5.1 1.8 2.2 2.0 3.0 4.5

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1,880 2,160 2,420 2,600 -- -- -- --

CPI inflation (Annual % Change) 11.7 16.2 11.7 11.0 8.6 9.5 13.7 --

Unemployment (Annual % Change) 8.7 9.4 9.0 12.0 12.6 13.6 14.3 14.1

EGP /USS$ Exchange Rate (End of Period) 5.50 5.51 5.51 5.81 6.0 7.2 -- --

Total revenues (% of GDP) 24.7 27.1 22.2 19.3 19.7 18.2 20.5 19.8

Tax revenue (% of GDP) 15.3 15.7 14.1 14.0 13.4 15.0 14.5 13.7

Other revenues(% of GDP) 9.4 11.4 8.1 5.3 6.2 7.1 5.9 6.1

Total expenditures (% of GDP) 31.5 33.7 30.3 29.3 30.5 29.7 33.5 32.4

Compensation of employees (% of GDP) 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.0 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.4

Interest payments (% of GDP) 5.6 5.1 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.5 7.9 7.9

Subsidies & social benefits(% of GDP) 10.3 12.2 8.5 9.0 9.7 10.9 11.3 10.8

Primary fiscal deficit (% of GDP) 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.5

Overall fiscal deficit (% of GDP) 6.8 6.9 8.1 9.8 10.8 12.0 10.0 9.5

Domestic savings (% of GDP) 16.8 12.6 14.3 13.0 9.1 15.8 ... ...

Domestic investments (% of GDP) 22.4 19.2 19.5 17.1 16.7 17.8 … ...

Gross domestic public debt (% of GDP) 73.5 72.5 73.6 76.2 80.3 77.6 80.1 76.5

364 Day T-bills rate ((Annual Average) 7.8 12.1 10.5 11.5 14.8 .. .. ...

Gross external debt (% of GDP) 20.1 16.9 15.9 15.2 13.5 14.9 15.8 15.5

External debt service (% of exports) 4.6 6.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 8.0 7.9 7.9

Net international reserves (US$ billion) 34.6 31.3 35.2 26.6 15.5 16.0 ... ...

As months of commodity imports 7.9 7.5 8.6 6.3 3.2 4.3 3.6 ...

Balance of payments (% of GDP) 3.3 -1.8 1.5 -4.1 -4.4 -4.0 -0.2 0.8

Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.5 -2.3 -2.0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0

Trade balance (% of GDP) -14.4 -13.3 -11.5 -11.5 -12.3 -10.0 11.1 -11.2

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 34.8 25.9 21.7 20.7 18.6 22.0 ... ...

Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 40.0 32.6 28.4 28.9 28.8 26.0 ... ...

FDI in Egypt (net) (% of GDP) 8.1 4.3 3.1 0.9 0.8 2.0 ... ...


12



Annex II Economic Statistics and Charts

GDP Growth Rates(%)

Fiscal Year Jul/

Mar

2012

Apr/

Jun

2012

Jul/

Sep

2013

Jul/

Dec

2012

Jul/

Dec

20132011 2012

Real GDP at Market Price 1.8 2.2 5.2 3.3 2.6 0.4 2.2

Real GDP Per Capita -0.6 0.0 2.9 1.1 -0.2 -1.8 -0.6

Source: Egyptian Ministry of Finance

Real Sector Current Prices

(EGP bn)

Fiscal Year Jul/Mar2012

Apr/Jun2012

Jul/Sep2013

Oct/Dec2012

Oct/Dec2013

FiscalYear

2012

GDP at MarketPrices

1,371 1,542 346 400 446 394 438

Consumption 1,193 1,402 316 351 419 356 408

Investment 235 258 61 80 49 67 68

Exports 282 286 69 73 76 72 77

Imports 339 404 100 104 98 101 116


Origin of GDP – Selected Sectors (Growth Rate)

(%)

Fiscal Year Jul/Mar2012

Apr/Jun2012

Jul/Sep2013

Jul/Dec2012

Jul/Dec2013

2011 2012

Agriculture, Forestry& Fishing

2.7 2.9 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.9

Extractions 0.6 0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.7

Manufacturing Industries

-0.9 0.7 -0.4 3.8 2.8 -3.1 2.4

Electricity 4.5 5.9 5.8 6.5 6.8 4.1 6.8

Water 4.4 4.6 5.1 3.3 4.4 4.2 4.0

Construction & Building

3.7 3.3 2.0 7.0 5.4 -1.6 4.5

Communication 6.7 5.2 5.4 4.6 5.1 3.7 4.4

Suez Canal 11.5 3.9 6.1 -2.5 -3.4 7.2 -3.6

Tourism -5.9 2.3 -1.0 15.4 0.6 -8.6 6.8

Source: The Central Bank of Egypt

(US$ bn)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

FDI Inflows 9.6 11.8 3.1 4.6 2.3 1.3 2.5

FDI Outflows -7.4 -9.7 -2.5 -2.8 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3

Net FDI 2.2 2.1 0.6 1.9 0.1 -0.9 0.2


2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q3.10 Q4.10 Q1.11 Q2.11 Q3.11 Q4.11 Q1.12 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 Q1.13 Q2.13

(%)

356

67 72 101

408

68 77 116

-

100

200

300

400

500

Consump�on Investment Exports Imports

(EGP bn)

Oct-Dec 2012 Oct-Dec 2013

14 16

6.6 6.9

-1.1

10.6 11 10.3

13.8 14.6

-202468

1012141618

Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

Extrac�ons Manufacturing Industries Construc�on & Building Tourism

(%)

July/ Dec 2011/2012 July/ Dec 2012/2013

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q3.10 Q4.10 Q1.11 Q2.11 Q3.11 Q4.11 Q1.12 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 Q1.13 Q2.13

(US$ bn)

Real GDP Growth Rate

Egypt Expenditure on GDP

Origin of GDP Growth Rate (Selected Sectors)

Net FDI

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


13



3. Suez Canal

Suez Canal Traffic

(Thousands)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 Jan/Mar2012

Jan/Mar20132011 2012 Nov Dec Jan

TotalVessels

18,050 17,664 1,357 1,399 1,311 4,347 3,929

Source: Suez Canal Authority

Suez Canal Revenues

(US$ mn)

Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar

SuezCanal Reve-nues

5,053 5,208 425 405 375 428 407

Source: CAPMAS

4. Tourism

Tourism Traffic

(mn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr

Numberof TouristArrivals

0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1

Number of Nights

7.8 9.4 13.8 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.1


Tourism Revenues

(US$ bn)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

Tourism Reve-nues

10.6 9.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.9

5. Monetary Sector

Domestic Liquidity

(EGP bn)

Except CBE Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb

Reserve Money (M0) 251 264 264 264 267 253 276

Domestic Liquidity (M2) 1,009 1,094 1,147 1,167 1,198 1,050 1,211

Money Supply (M1) 249 275 288 288 305 259 309

Quasi-Money 761 820 860 879 894 791 903


320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

(US$ mn)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

(mn)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q 3.10 Q 4 .10 Q 1. 11 Q 2.11 Q 3.11 Q 4.11 Q 1.12 Q 2.12 Q 3.12 Q4.12 Q1.13 Q2.13

(US$ bn)

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

(EGP bn)

Suez Canal Revenues

Number of Tourist Arrivals

Tourism Revenues

Domestic Liquidity (M2)


14



Bank Deposits

(EGP bn)



Total Deposits 965 1,027 1,063 1,069 1,114 999 1,129

Governmental 117 119 116 117 124 122 128

Non-Governmental 848 908 947 952 990 877 1,001


Credit Facilities

(EGP bn)



Total Credit Facilities 474 507 512 517 528 495 530

Government 40 34 32 35 36 36 35

Non-Government 434 473 480 482 492 459 496


Foreign Assets & Liabilities

(EGP bn)



Net Foreign Assets of theBanking System

254 158 147 133 138 178 133

Central Bank of Egypt 147 76 64 49 42 82 42

Banks 106 82 83 84 96 96 92


6. Financial Sector

Inflation Rate

(%)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013


Inflation Rate 11.9 7.3 6.3 8.2 7.6 8.8 8.1

Core InflationRate

8.9 7.0 5.2 7.7 7.0 8.4 7.5

PPI 19.4 -3.7 -0.5 -0.8 -3 2.9 -


Monthly Interest Rates

(%)

Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2012 2012 2013

2011 2012 Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar

6 -12 monthDeposit

11.0 11.9 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.3

1-3 Month De-posit

6.6 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.8

3 Month TBs 11.7 14.6 13.1 13.2 12.8 13.8 12.7


940

960

980

1,000

1,020

1,040

1,060

1,080

1,100

1,120

1,140


(EGP bn) Total Deposits (EGP bn)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


(EGP bn) Credit Facilities

Credit For Government Credit for Non-Government

020406080

100120140160180200


(EGP bn) Foreign Assets & Liabilities

Central Bank of Egypt Banks Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


(%) CPI & Core Inflation Rate

Infla�on Rate(CPI urban) Core Infla�on Rate (CPI Urban)


15



Stock Market Exchange(%)

Fiscal Year 2013 2012 20132011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr

EGX 20 5,888 5,452 6,467 6,422 5,856 5,820 5,986 EGX 30 5,373 4,709 5,606 5,489 5,099 4,945 5,196 EGX 70 630 422 465 471 441 433 449 EGX 100 973 730 790 797 737 779 746 Source: The Egyptian Exchange

Number of Listed Companies(bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2012 20132011 2012 nov Dec Jan Feb Feb

No. of listedcompanies(Unit)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

No. of listedshares

32 40 40 40 40 40 40

Listed capital(EGP )

144 150 151 151 151 150 151


7. Fiscal Sector

Total Revenues(EGP bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 20132011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr

Total Revenues

265.3 303.6 16.8 15.1 23.3 27.0 31.9

Tax Revenues 192.1 207.4 13.9 11.9 19.1 20.4 21.6Taxes on Income

89.6 91.2 3.8 2.9 6.4 11.9 11.8

Taxes on Property

9.5 13.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.9

Taxes onGoods and Services

76.1 84.6 7.3 6.5 7.3 6.1 6.8

Taxes on Inter-national Trade

13.9 14.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1

Non-Tax revenues

73.2 96.2 2.9 3.3 4.2 6.6 10.4

Grants 2.3 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4Other Revenues

70.9 86.1 2.9 3.2 4.1 6.5 9.0

Source: AfDB based on data by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

(%) 3 Month TBs

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2/1

/2

01

31

6/0

1/2

01

32

/2

/2

01

21

6/0

2/2

01

22

9/0

2/2

01

21

3/0

3/2

01

22

6/0

3/2

01

28

/4

/2

01

22

3/0

4/2

01

28

/5

/2

01

22

1/0

5/2

01

23

/6

/2

01

21

4/0

6/2

01

22

8/0

6/2

01

21

2/7

/2

01

22

6/0

7/2

01

28

/8

/2

01

22

3/0

8/2

01

25

/9

/2

01

21

8/0

9/2

01

21

/1

0/2

01

21

5/1

0/2

01

23

0/1

0/2

01

21

2/1

1/2

01

22

6/1

1/2

01

29

/1

2/2

01

22

0/1

2/2

01

23

/1

/2

01

31

7/0

1/2

01

33

1/0

1/2

01

31

3/0

2/2

01

32

6/0

2/2

01

31

1/3

/2

01

32

4/0

3/2

01

34

/4

/2

01

31

7/0

4/2

01

32

/5

/2

01

31

9/0

5/2

01

3

EGX 30

224

153

72

240

178

63

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total Revenues Tax Revenues Non-Tax revenues

(EGP bn) Revenues

Jul-Apr 2012 Jul-Apr 2013

342

92 89 91

423

113 117 105

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Total Expenditures Salaries Interest Subsidies

(EGP bn) Expenditure


Expenditure(EGP bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 20132011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr

Total Expenditures

401.9 471.0 45.4 41.0 52.6 31.5 40.6

Compensation of Employees

96.3 122.8 10.5 10.0 14.1 8.6 10.1

Purchases of Goods and Services

26.1 26.8 2.3 2.0 2.3 1.7 2.2

Interest 85.1 104.4 14.3 10.0 18.1 10.9 15.1Subsidies 111.2 135.0 10.7 11.9 9.3 5.7 6.4Grants 5.3 5.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6Social benefits 6.1 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7Purchases of Non-Finan-cial Assets

39.9 35.9 3.0 2.4 3.3 1.9 2.8



16



Budget Deficit

(EGP bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013


Total Cash De-ficit (EGP bn)

136.6 167.4 28.6 25.8 29.3 4.6 8.7

Overall Fiscal Deficit (EGP bn)

134.5 166.7 28.4 26.7 29.4 4.7 8.9


8. External Sector

Current & Financial Account

(US$ bn)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

Current Ac-count

-6.1 -7.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.3 -1.9 -2.8

Capital & Financial Account

-4.2 -1.4 -1.3 2.3 0.4 -2.9 3.8

Capital Account

0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Financial Account

-4.2 -1.3 -1.2 2.3 0.5 -2.9 3.8


External Sector Indicators

(%)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

Exports /Im-ports

49.9 46.0 45.0 45.8 50.2 46.7 39.6

Service Receipts/ Payments

156.3 134.6 115.7 142.3 143 140.3 158.0

Current Receipts/ Payments

91.1 89.3 87.5 91.8 98.4 89.7 86.4

Current Ac-count/GDP

-2.6 -3.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0

Overall Ba-lance /GDP

-4.1 -4.4 -1.2 0.0 -0.2 -2.2 0.0


EGP Exchange Rate

(%)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013


US$ 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.0 6.9

Euro 8.6 7.6 9.0 8.8 9.1 7.9 9.1

Pound Sterling 9.7 9.4 10.4 10.2 10.8 9.6 10.8


118

183

0

50

100

150

200


(EGP bn) Total Cash Deficit

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013

(US$ bn) Current Account

0

50

100

150

200

Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q4 Q1 Q 2

2010 2011 2012 2013

(%) Service Receipts / Service Payments

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0


EGP / US$ Exchange Rate


17



Net International Reserves

(US$ bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013



26.6 15.5 13.6 13.5 13.4 15.2 14.0


Trade Balance

(US$ bn)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013

2011 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan

Balance -27.1 -31.7 -2.2 -4.0 -2.7 -3.3 -2.9

Export 27.0 27.0 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.4

Import -54.1 -58.7 4.5 6.4 5.5 5.6 5.3

Source: AfDB based on data by Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics

Pharmaceuticals

(US$ mn)

Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13

Exports 34 39 42 30 36 44 43

Imports 145 179 134 167 150 176 133

Source: The General Organization for Exports & Imports Control

12

13

13

14

14

15

15

16

16


(US$ bn)


-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

(US$ bn) Trade Balance

Trade Balance Export Import

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

May12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13

(US$ mn) Building Materials

Exports Imports

0100200300400500600700800900

1000


(US$ mn) Chemicals & Fertilizers

Exports Imports

Building Materials

(US$ mn)


Exports 505 399 489 539 480 533 445

Imports 614 781 769 743 660 726 625


Leather

(US$ mn)


Exports 12 14 11 14 14 16 16

Imports 14 14 14 13 15 18 12


Chemicals & Fertilizers

(US$ mn)


Exports 360 387 482 284 318 360 407

Imports 727 850 850 805 754 866 689



18



Ready Made Garments

(US$ mn)


Exports 111 103 134 116 118 124 121

Imports 77 59 49 40 35 47 51


Home Wear

(US$ mn)


Exports 53 61 64 55 58 68 64

Imports 9 33 35 40 49 43 32


Engineering and Electronics

(US$ mn)


Exports 165 219 243 168 176 262 204

Imports 1353 1814 1806 1730 1465 1498 1187


Spinning and Weaving

(US$ mn)


Exports 67 72 73 68 66 84 75

Imports 184 227 209 200 171 186 173


Media Commodities

(US$ mn)


Exports 1 1 2 1 1 2 2

Imports 4 4 3 7 6 2 2


Furniture

(US$ mn)


Exports 26 19 32 27 28 33 33

Imports 146 169 151 141 116 129 103


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Apr 12 May12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13

(US$ mn) Ready Made Garments

Exports Imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


(US$ mn) Home Wear

Exports Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250


(US$ mn) Spinning & Weaving

Exports Imports

020406080

100120140160180200


(US$ mn) Furniture

Exports Imports


19



Fresh Produce

(US$ mn)


Exports 87 129 182 235 233 254 222

Imports 798 735 656 556 417 393 137


Food Industry

(US$ mn)

Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13Exports 191 226 224 186 215 265 286

Imports 639 599 570 515 497 470 401


9. Debt

Debt Per Capita

(%)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

Gross Domes-tic Debt perCapita (Thou-sands EGP)

13 15 14 15 16 14 16

External Debtper Capita(US$)

414 390 379 390 394 387 440


0

200

400

600

800

1000


(US$ mn) Fresh Produce

Exports Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


(US$ mn) Food Industry

Exports Imports

72.2

12.9

77.6

13.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Gross Domes�c Debt / GDP External Debt / GDP

(%)

Debt Indicators

Q 2. 2012 Q2. 2013

107

78

29

159

101

57

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Total Government Debt Service Interest Payments Principal Payments

(EGP bn) Total Debt Service

Jul-Mar 2012 Jul-Mar 2013

External Debt

(%)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

External Debt /GDP

15 14 13 14 12 13 14

GovernmentExternal Debt/GDP

11.8 10 10 10 8.7 9.9 9.3

External Debt/Exportsof Goods &Services

71.4 71.9 292 283 276 280 308


Domestic Debt

(%)

Fiscal Year 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2

Total DomesticPublicDebt/GDP

76 80 77 80 75 74 78

Domestic Go-vernmentDebt/Domes-tic Public debt

77 80 80 80 81 79 82

GovernmentDebt (net) /GDP

58.9 64.2 62.3 64.2 60.7 57 63.4



20



Debt Service

(EGP, bn)

Fiscal Year 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013


Total Govern-ment DebtService

117.3 140.9 32.3 13.4 22.3 17.2 27.0

Interest Pay-ments

85.1 104.4 14.3 10.0 18.1 10.9 15.1

Domestic Debt 81.7 101.0 13.7 9.9 17.8 10.5 14.7

Foreign Debt 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4Principal Payments

32.2 36.5 18.0 3.5 4.2 6.3 11.9

Domestic Debt 23.0 21.3 14.1 3.2 4.0 6.1 11.6

Foreign Debt 9.2 15.2 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3


10. Production Index

(%)

Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13

Production Index 172.1 185.2 206.3 195.6 185.6 179.5

Production IndexGrowth Rate

3.0 9.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 0.5

Source: AfDB based on data by CAPMAS & Ministry of Planning

11. Manufacturing Sector

Manufacturing Index

(%)


Production Index 141.0 142.2 142.6 150.3 166.5 160.9

Production IndexGrowth Rate

6.3 0.8 0.3 5.4 10.8 -3.4

Source: AfDB based on data by CAPMAS & Ministry of Planning

Mining & Others

(%)


Mining & Quarrying(Others)

-8.3 18.5 -35.4 -32.7 67.0 -16.8

Medical & Optical Instruments

-21.0 12.8 -34.8 31.8 -26.2 9.6

Others 63.1 -38.6 -45.1 11.4 46.1 125.7

Source: AfDB based on data CAPMAS

Clothing

(%)


Textiles -2.9 -0.6 5.4 15.1 -7.1 0.2

Apparel & Dressing 8.4 -3.6 -0.4 4.0 13.3 -0.1

Tanning & leather Products

6.0 3.3 5.7 1.1 0.5 10.8


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013

(EGP ) Gross Domestic Debt per Capita

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013

(US$) External Debt per Capita (US$)

0

50

100

150

200

250


(%) Manufacturing & Production Index

Total Manufacturing Index Total Produc�on Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


(%) Clothing

Tex�les Apparel & Dressing Tanning & leather Products


21



Chemical & Mineral Products

(%)


Chemical Products 4.8 -12.0 12.7 -0.3 1.7 6.8

Rubber & Plastics -0.2 6.8 -8.0 0.6 -6.5 15.4

Non-Metallic Minerals(Others)

18.5 19.6 -19.7 5.4 -18.9 2.0

Source: AfDB based on data CAPMAS0

50

100

150

200

250

300


(%) Chemical & Mineral Products

Chemical Products Rubber & Plas�cs Non-Metallic Minerals(Others)

0

50

100

150

200

250


(%) Paper & Printing

Paper Products Publishing, Prin�ng

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


(%) Equipments

Machinery & Equipment Office& Compu�ng Equipment Electrical Machinery

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


(%) Metals

Basic Metals Fabricated Metal Products

Paper & Printing Products

(%)


Paper Products 12.6 -14.2 44.6 -8.7 -3.4 6.5

Publishing, Printing 7.6 5.6 3.1 -1.9 11.4 -7.6


Equipment

(%)


Machinery & Equipment

21.5 24.7 -9.0 3.7 0.2 11.4

Office& ComputingEquipment

-38.4 8.7 67.1 -6.5 41.1 -3.9

Electrical Machinery 2.9 11.1 -1.4 26.7 -26.4 20.3


Metal

(%)


Basic Metals -0.9 4.8 5.3 -10.1 28.5 -17.1

Fabricated Metal Products

5.0 17.9 11.1 -4.6 -13.8 -40.8


Wood & Furniture

(%)


Furniture -6.0 -13.4 -9.8 -9.4 -24.5 50.4

Wood & Cork 23.8 14.3 -8.8 -3.2 -11.3 46.8


Food, Beverages & Tobacco

(%)


Food & Beverages 8.6 2.9 -6.7 20.3 4.2 8.1

Tobacco Products 36.0 -0.6 4.0 -3.5 -6.2 -0.5



22



12. Energy Sector

Petroleum Consumption, Exports & Imports

(%)

Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13

Petroleum ProductsLocal Consumption (1000 Ton)

2,973 2,864 2,965 2,973 2,470 2,787

Petroleum Exports(EGP mn)

4,006 4,287 4,338 3,695 4,828 4,097

Petroleum Imports(EGP mn)

5,481 9,073 8,733 5,653 8,451 7,624


Natural Gaz, Butagaz , Condensers & Oil Production

(1000 Ton)


Natural Gaz Production

3,862 3,613 3,804 3,704 3,374 2,723

Natural Gaz localConsumption

3,278 3,070 3,256 3,191 2,886 3,206

Oil, Butagaz &Condensers Production

2,980 3,938 2,983 2,945 2,642 2,934


Electricity

(bn K.W)


Electricity Generated 14 13 13 13 12 13

Electricity consumption

12 12 11 10 10 11


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


(1000 Ton) Petroleum Consumption, Exports & Imports

Petroleum Products Local Consump�on (1000 Ton) Petroleum Exports (EGP mn) Petroleum Imports (EGP mn)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500


(1000 Ton) Natural Gaz, Oil Production & Consumption

Natural gaz produc�on Natural gaz local consump�on Oil, Butagaz and Condensers Produc�on ( 1000 Ton)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


(bn K.W) Electricity Production & Consumption

Electricity Genarated Electricity consump�on

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Wood & Furniture

Furniture Wood & Cork

020406080

100120140160180

(%) Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Food & Beverages Tobacco Products


23




24



About the African Development Bank (AfDB)

The African Development Bank (AfDB) is Africa’s premier development finance ins-

titution established in 1964 to mobilize resources for the economic and social de-

velopment of its 53 regional member countries. The Bank’s membership includes

24 non-regional member countries bringing the total number of member coun-

tries to 77.

The Bank has been financing development activities in it regional member coun-

tries through its three windows of financing: the African Development Bank (ADB)

window, the African Development Fund (ADF) window and the Nigerian Trust Fund

(NTF) window.

About Egypt

Egypt is one of the AfDB’s most important regional member countries. In addition

to being one of its founding members in 1964, Egypt is one of its top shareholders.

For More Background on AfDB OperationsFor more information about the African Development Bank, and its operations in

Egypt, visit the Bank’s website at:

http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/north-africa/egypt/

Contacts

Mr. Sibry Tapsoba, Resident Representative

Email: [email protected]

African Development Bank Group

Egypt Country Office (EGFO)

72B Al Maahad Al Eshteraky St. Heliopolis

Opposite to Maryland Roxy/Heliopolis

Cairo, EGYPT

Tel.: +202 22 563 790 / 1

Fax: +202 22 563 792

Ext.: 6730-6759

© A

fDB

2013

- DE

SIG

N E

RCU

/YA

L


Documents

Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 4 - June …...AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP flow of traffic on the Suez Canal. As a result, the Canal’s revenues declined from US$ 425