Economic Review 2014 - ncsi.gov.om Q 201… · Oil activities value added declined by 0.2% at the end of March 2014 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year to reach

Economic Review 2014

First Quarter

September 2014

His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said

3

Economic ReviewFirst Quarter 2014 - September 2014

ContentsFirstly: Oman in World Economic Index 5

Secondly: World and Regional Outlook 5

Thirdly: Economic Performance in The Sultanate 6

1- Economic Growth in The Sultanate 6

2- Foreign Direct Investment 8

3- Public Finance 9

4- Monetary Sector 10

5- Muscat Securities Market Index 12

6- Tourism Sector 12

7- Prices 14

- Producer Price Index 14

- Consumer Price Index 16

8- Foreign Trade 18

9- Private Sector Workforce 19

5


Firstly: Sultanate Position in World Economic Indicators

Enabling World Trade Index 2014 :- The Sultanate ranked 31 at World Level and obtained 4.86 points out of 7.

- And came in Third position at both Arab and GCC States levels.31

World Competitiveness Index (2014 – 2015) : - The Sultanate came in 46 place at World Level and obtained 4.46 points out of 7.

- And came in 7th place among Arab Countries and 6th among the GCC States. 46

Economic Freedom Index 2014 :- The Sultanate ranked 48 at World Level and obtained 67.4 points out of 100.

- And came in 6th place among Arab Countries and 4th place among GCC States. 48

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index 2013: - The Sultanate came in 57 place at World Level and obtained 4.29 points out of 7.

- It ranked 5th place among the Arab Countries and 4th place among GCC States.57

Secondly: World and Regional Outlook

“Forecasts of the Global Economic Outlook indicate the rise in the global economy to reach 3.4% in 2014 and 4% in 2015.

Growth in developed economies is expected to increase to around 1.8% in 2014 while some of the developed economies are expected to achieve a strong growth to reach 2.4% during the coming year. Growth in emerging and developing economies on the other hand is expected to reach 4.6% in 2014 and 5.2% in 2015, where many advanced and emerging economies should undertake urgent structural changes to fill the infrastructure gaps, strengthen productivity and raise rates of growth.’’ 1

1 Source: world Economic Outlook Report, IMF, July 2014.

6


Thirdly: Economic performance in the Sultanate

1- Economic Growth in the Sultanate

GDP at current prices achieved a growth rate of 4.6% at the end of March 2014 compared to the corresponding period of 2013, where it increased from RO. 7.4 billion up to the end of March 2013 compared to RO. 7.7 billion up to the end of March 2014.

Figure No.(1):GDP Growth Rate at Current Prices, Accumulative Data (change %)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

ly c

hang

e (%

)

Oil Sector

non Oil Sectors

GDP current Cumulative

Oil activities value added declined by 0.2% at the end of March 2014 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year to reach RO. 3.8 billion. This decline was attributed mainly to the decrease in the value added of natural gas by 5%. By comparison, the value added of crude oil increased by 0.3% up to end of March 2014 compared to the corresponding period of 2013, due to the increase in Omani crude average production by 1% during the period under reference (figure No. 2).

7


Figure No.(2): Omani Crude Oil Production and Prices- Annual Data

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Om

an C

rude

Oil

Pric

e (U

S$/B

BL)

Cru

de O

il Pr

oduc

tion

Non-oil activities value added increased by 8.3% up to the end of March 2014 to reach RO.4 billion compared to RO. 4.4 billion in the corresponding period of 2013. This increase was attributed to the increase in the value added of agriculture and fisheries by 12.5%, services activities by 10.9% and industrial activities by 1.2% during the period under reference.

Services activities value added increased from RO. 2.8 billion up to the end of March 2013 to RO. 3.1 billion up to March 2014, due to the increase in the activities of financial intermediation by 12.1%, public administration and defense by 10.5% and other services activities, which include health and education, by 20.2%. Transport, storage and communication activities increased by 9.3%, wholesale and retail trade activities by 7.1% . also, real estate and rent activities and the activities of business projects increased by 6.1% and hotels and restaurants activities by 4.6%.

The value added of industrial activities registered an increase by 1.2% up to the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of the previous year due to the increase in the value added of electricity and water supplies by 11.2%, manufacturing industries by 11%, mining and quarrying by 10% and construction by 4%, while basic chemical activities value added dropped by 7.8%.

8


Figure No. (3): Contribution in GDP Growth in 2014 Compared to 2013 (percentage points)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

GDP Petroleum Activities

Extraction of Crude Oil Extraction of Natural Gas

Industry Activities Other Manufacturing

Construction Electricity & Water Supply

Mining & Quarrying Manufacture of Basic Chemical

Services Activities Other Services

Public Admin & Defence Transport Storage & Comms.

Wholesale & Retail Trade Financial Intermediation

Real Estate Services Hotels & Restaurants

Agriculture and Fishing

Contribution (Percentage Points)

2- Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign Direct Investment in the Sultanate increased by 13.4% up to the end of Q1 2014 compared to the corresponding period of 2013, where it increased from RO 6.6 billion up to the end of Q1 2013 to RO.7.4 billion up to the end of Q1 2014.

Oil and gas extraction activities accounted for the biggest share of total foreign direct investment up to the end of Q1 2014 with a value of RO 3.8 billion and contributed 51% of total foreign direct investment up to the end of Q1 2014.

Manufacturing industries activities ranked second accounting for 15.5% of foreign direct investment with its value amounting to RO. 1.2 billion.

Financial intermediation activities contributed 15.3% of foreign direct investment up to the end of Q1 2014 with a value of RO.1.1 billion.

United Kingdom headed the list of countries in total foreign direct investment

9


flows to the Sultanate up to the end of Q1 2014 with total investment of RO 3 billion. Most of UK investment was directed to oil and gas extraction activities accounting for 90.7%.

United Arab Emirates ranked second with total investment amounting to RO 1.1 billion. Foreign Direct Investment of the Kingdom of Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar together amounted to RO. 720 million and 10% of total foreign direct investment flows to the Sultanate.

3- Public Finance

Public finance achieved a surplus of RO. 615.4 million up to the end of Q1 2014 which was less than the surplus realized during the same period of 2013 amounting to RO. 931 million.

Figure NO.(4): Public Expenditure, Quarterly Data (Million Omani Rial)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Expenditure Investment Expenditure Participation and Support to the Private Sector

Mill

ion

RO

Source: Ministry of Finance

10


The state public revenues decreased from RO 3.5 billion during Q1 2013 to RO. 3.2 billion in Q1 2014 i.e. dropping by 7%.

The decrease of public revenues was attributed to the drop in net oil revenues 4.7% and gas by 1.8%. Equally corporate income tax decreased by 90%, and capital revenues by 45.6%. By comparison, custom duties increased by 100% and other revenues by 7.8%.

Public expenditure registered an increase of 2.9% at the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of 2013, increasing from RO. 2.5 billion to RO 2.6 billion at the end of March 2014.

This decline was attributed to the increase in current expenditure by 8.3% and participation and support by 0.5% while investment expenditure dropping by 9.7%.

4- Monetary Sector

Domestic liquidity increased by 13.7% at the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of 2013, increasing from RO. 11.2 billion at the end of March 2013 to RO. 12.7 billion during the same period of 2014.

Total deposits in commercial banks amounted to RO. 17.2 billion at the end of March 2014 compared to RO. 14.7 billion during the same period of 2013 registering a rate of increase of 16.7%.

The rise of total deposits was attributed to the increase of total government sector deposits (ministries and public enterprises) by 26.1% and private sector deposits by 12.8% at the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of 2013.

Total credit (loans) increased from RO. 14.3 billion at the end of March 2013 to RO. 15.6 billion at the end of March 2014, or by 9.2%.

This increase in total credit was attributed to the rise of credit awarded to the private sector and public enterprises by 9.3% and 8.3% respectively. By comparison, credit extended to the government dropped by 42.9% at the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of 2013.

11


Figure No.(5):Growth of money supply , Total Credit, and credit to personal loans, cumulative data

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

on

Year

Cha

nge

(%)

Total Credit Credit to Personal Loans M2

(2م)السيولة احمللية القروض الشخصية إمجالي القروض Source: Central Bank of Oman .البنك المركزي العماني :المصدر

Personal loans represented 39.7% of total loans at the end of March 2014, where it reached RO. 6.2 billion rising by 8.1% above the level of the corresponding period of 2013.

Average interest rate on total credit declined to 4.9% at the end of March 2014 compared to around 5.1% at the end of March 2013, while real interest rate (average interest rate minus inflation rate) declined from 4.6% at the end of March 2013 to 4.1% at the end of March 2014.

12


Figure No.(6):Average Nominal and Real Interest Rate on Total Loans in The Private Sector Monthly Data

2

3

4

5

6

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

2012 2013 2014

Average Interest Rate Average Real Interest Rate

سعر الفائدة الحقيقي متوسط

متوسط سعر الفائدة اإلسمي

Inte

rest

Rat

e on

Priv

ate

Sect

or C

redi

t (%

)

البنك المركزي العماني: المصدر Source: Central Bank of Oman

The Index of effective exchange rate of the Omani Rail increased by 0.5% at the end of March 2014 reaching 95.7 percentage points compared to 95.2 during the same period of 2013.

5- Muscat Securities Market Index

Muscat Securities Market Index increased by 4.5% at the end of March 2014 rising from 5989.7 points at the end of March 2013 to 6856.9 points at the end of March 2014. Correspondingly by the Index dropped by 3.6% compared to the previous month of 2014.

Trade value increased by 34% at the end of March 2014 compared to the end of March 2013 to reach RO. 0.7 billion compared to RO. 0.5 billion during the same period of 2013.

As with regards to sector contribution, the financial sector ranked first in terms of trade accounting for RO. 427 million, followed by the service sector which achieved RO. 166 million. The industrial sector come in third place with a total trade of RO. 96 million and shares in fourth place with a trade value of RO. 2 million.

13


Figure No.(7):Muscat Securities Market Index, monthly data

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000 M

ar

June

Sep

Dec

Mar

June

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MSM

Inde

x

Source: Muscat Securities Market

6- Tourism Sector2

Five stars hotels witnessed a rise in their revenues in Q1 2014 by 4.9% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2013 to reach RO 33 million in Q1 2014. This increase was attributed to the increase in the number of guests by 21.8%, number of occupied rooms by 6.3% and tourists’ nights by 4.8% which led to the increase in occupancy rate to 75% compared to 71% in Q1 2013,

Four stars hotels on the other hand registered a 12% in their revenues in Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013, due to the rise in the number of guests by 21.3%, tourists’ nights by 9% and occupied rooms by 7.6%, thus leading to increase in occupancy rate to 68.6%.

2 Includes The Data of 5 and 4 Star Hotels Only.

14


Figure No(8): Revenues of Five and Four Star Hotels, Quarterly Data and Rate of Change(%)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

ly c

hang

e (%

)

Five Star Hotel Revenue Four Star Hotel Revenue

فنادق اخلمس جنوم إيرادات

فنادق األربع جنوم إيرادات

Source: Monthly and Quarterly survey for 4,5 star hotels

7- Prices

Producer Price Index

Producer Price Index increased by 0.3% in Q1 2014 compared to corresponding quarter of 2013 due to the rise in prices of oil and gas products by 0.2% during period under reference. Also, PPI increased by 2% compared to previous quarter.

Oil and gas products registered an increase of 2.2% in Q1 2014 compared to previous quarter, due to the increase in the price of crude oil and liquefied natural gas by 1.5% and the price of refined oil products by 7.4% during the same period.

Prices of non - oil products increased by 1% in Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013, and an increase by 0.6% compared to previous quarter, due to the price increase of the manufacturing industry by 0.9%, while price of mining products and electricity and water group declined by 0.8%, due to the decline in the prices of electricity and power and water by 0.9% during the same period.

15


The increase in the manufacturing group index in Q1 2014 compared to the previous quarter was attributed to the price increase of the following groups:- Other transportable goods: Prices increased by 2.2% due to the increase in the

prices of metals, acids and polypropylene by 4.6%, furniture, jewelry products and iron debris after smelting by 1.7%, and paints and pharmaceutical products by 1.5%. Rubber and plastic products also increased by 0.5%, while wood and pulp products dropped by 0.4%

- Food products, beverages and textiles prices increased by 1.3% in Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013, due to the increase in the prices of beverages products by 5.2%, milk products by 3.5% and bakery’s products and other food products by 0.4% and 0.3%. Fish, fruits, vegetables, oil readymade cloths, textiles and footwear drops by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

By comparison, the prices of metal products, machinery and equipment group dropped by 1.6% due to the decrease in the prices of ion and products group or aluminum by 2.1%, electricity distribution and connection equipment, recording discs and tapes by 2% and products made of steel and aluminum by 0.4% during the same period.

Figure No.(9): Producer Price Index, Quarterly data

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Inde

x

Oil & Gas Products Non-Oil Products

الرقم

القياسي

للمنتجات

النفطية

القياسي الرقم

للمنتجات

غري

النفطية

Quarterly Survey of PPI Source: National Centre of Statistics and Information -

16


Consumer price index

Inflation rate increased by 0.82% during Q1 2014 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2013.

The increase of the inflation rate during Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013 was mainly attributed to the rise in the prices of most groups constituting the index as follows:

- Food and non- alcoholic beverages group: The prices of this group increased by 2.78% due to the rise in the prices of fish and sea products by 15,27%, bread and cereals by 2.52%, fruits by 2.31%, meat by 0.8% and vegetables by 1.9%. The prices of non- alcoholic beverages group also increased by 1.71% , milk cheese and eggs by 1.2%, food products n.e.c by 0.49%, and oil and fats by 0.07%. By comparison, sugar, jam, honey and sweets prices dropped by 0.12% during Q1 2014 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2013.

- Housing, water, electricity, gas and other types of fuel groups: the prices of this group increased by 1.38% due to the increase in the rices of actual rent by 2.05%, water supply and other services related to housing by 0.62%.

- Education Group: prices of this group increased by 6.24%, due to the rise in the pre-primary and primary education fees3 by 13.03%, and secondary education fees4 by 12.54%.

- Hotels and restaurants group: This group witnessed an increase in its prices by 1.22% due to the increase in the prices of restaurants services by 1.15% and accommodation services by 4.05%.

- Furnishings, household equipment and routing household maintenance group: its prices increased by 1.43% due to the increase in housing textiles by 1.76% and goods and services used in regular housing operations by 1.92%.

Health group prices increased by 3.51%, cloths and footwear by 0.6%, tobacco by 0.73%. By comparison, communication prices dropped by 4.62%, transport by 1.24%. Recreation and entertainment, miscellaneous personal care items and services dropped by 0.16% and 0.15% respectively during Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013.

On the other hand, inflation rate dropped by 0.11% compared to Q4 2013 due to

3 Includes fees of Kindergarten and classes (1-6).4 Includes fees of classes(7-9) and classes (10-12).

17


the decline in the prices of transport group by 0.93% and furniture and housing materials by 0.23%, while the other groups witnessed a rise in their prices except the education group the prices of which were stable during the period under reference.

Figure No.(10): Contribution Towards the Changes of the General Consumer Price Index, Quarterly Data, Compared to Corresponding Quarter of Previous Year

(Percentage Points)

-0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9

General Index

Foods & non-alcoholic beverages

Housing, water, electricity, gas

Furnishings, household equipment & …

Education

Resturants and Hotels

Transport

Health

Miscellaneous goods and services

Tobacco

Recreation and Culture

Communication

Clothing & Footwear

Source: National Centre of Statistics and Information- Monthly Survey of CPI

Contribution (Percentage Points)

18


8- Foreign Trade

Total value of merchandize exports decreased by 7.9% during Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013 dropping from RO. 5.6 billion in Q1 2013 to RO. 5.1 billion during Q1 2014. This decline was attributed to the drop in oil exports value by 9.3% and re-export value increased by 27.2%, while the value of non-oil exports increased by 23.4%.

Imports value dropped by 8.1% during Q1 2014 compared to Q1 2013 where it declined from RO. 3.2 billion in Q1 2013 to RO. 2.9 billion during Q1 2014.

Figure No.(11) Changes in The Value of Merchandize Exports and Imports, Quarterly Data

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

on

Year

Cha

nge (

%)

Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports

السلعية الواردات السلعية الصادرات Souce: Royal Oman Police, Ministry of Oil and Gas, Orpic, and Oman LNG

19


9- Private sector workforce5

Total number of the workforce in the private sector increased by 3.3% at the end of March 2014 compared to the same period of 2013 reaching 1.7 million employees.

Expatriate labor force with valid work permit increased by 2.9% totally 1.5 million employees, while the number of Omanis working in the private sector increased by 6.6% to reach 186 thousand employees.

Figure No.(12):Growth of National Work force in the Private sector, quarterly data

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

on

Year

Cha

nge

(%)

Omani Nationals Expatriates Private Sector Workforce

العمانيون

الوافدة العمالة

العمالة يف القطاع اخلاص

Source:Royal Oman Police and the Public Authority for Social Insurance.

5 Source: Ministry of Manpower and the Public Authority for Social Insurance.

Indicators2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014

امل�ؤ�شـــــــرات

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1GDP Current (RO Billions) الناجت املحلي الإجمايل بالأ�شعار اجلارية )مليار ر.ع(

All Economy 11.9 14.2 16.1 23.4 18.5 22.6 26.9 30.0 7.4 15.2 22.1 30.0 7.7 15.5 22.7 30.6 7.4 جميع االإقت�صاد

% Change 25.3 19.1 13.8 45.0 -20.6 21.9 19.0 11.6 18.9 16.2 13.1 11.6 4.1 1.5 2.6 2.8 4.6 التغري )%(

Oil GDP 5.9 6.7 7.1 11.8 7.4 10.4 14.1 15.7 3.7 7.9 11.5 15.7 3.8 7.6 11.4 15.2 3.8 الناجت املحلي االإجمايل النفطي

% Change 44.1 14.7 5.9 65.9 -37.7 40.7 36.1 10.9 25.7 19.9 11.2 10.9 2.4 -3.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 التغري )%(

Non Oil GDP1 6.0 7.5 9.0 11.6 11.1 12.2 12.8 15.9 3.7 7.4 11.3 15.9 3.9 7.9 12.2 17.2 4.0 الناجت املحلي االإجمايل غري النفطي 1

% Change 10.0 25.9 20.0 28.9 -4.3 9.9 4.9 12.0 15.6 10.9 14.1 12.0 7.0 7.3 7.9 7.6 8.3 التغري )%(

Oman Crude Oil النفط اخلام العماين

Price (US$/BBL) 50.3 61.4 65.2 101.1 56.70 76.6 103.0 109.6 109.1 119.1 100.5 109.7 107.0 106.2 101.4 107.0 106.0 ال�صعر )دوالر/برميل(

Production (Mn BBL) 283 269 259 277 297 305 304 336 72 73 76 77 85 85 78 87 85 االإنتاج )ملي�ن برميل(

Trade (RO Billions) التجارة) مليار ر.ع(

Oil Exports 6.0 6.7 7.2 11.0 6.9 9.7 12.8 14.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 ال�صادرات النفطية

Non Oil Exports 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ال�صادرات الغري نفطية

Re-exports 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 اإعادة الت�صدير

Imports 3.4 4.2 6.1 8.8 6.9 7.6 9.1 10.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.8 ال�اردات

Price Indices (Quarterly)2م�ؤ�شرات الأ�شعار )ربعي(2

Consumer Price Index Oman 101.7 105.2 111.4 125.2 129.5 133.7 139.2 143.2 141.8 141.9 144.2 145.2 100.7 100.6 101.5 101.6 101.5 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني بال�صلطنة

CPI Oman (Change %) 1.9 3.5 5.9 12.4 3.4 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 التغري )%(

CPI Muscat 1.2 3.2 5.1 12.8 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.0 3.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.8 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )م�صقط(

CPI Al Batinah North 2.1 4.6 8.4 11.2 1.2 1.7 4.3 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 4.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )�صمال الباطنة(

CPI Al Dhahirah 2.5 2.4 5.8 12.0 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.2 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الظاهرة(

CPI Al Dakhiliyah 1.5 3.2 6.6 11.3 0.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.0 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الداخلية(

CPI Ash Sharqiyah (North & South) 3.9 3.9 5.5 15.1 2.7 1.2 4.2 0.9 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )جن�ب و�صمال ال�صرقية(

CPI Dhofar 2.4 3.1 5.0 10.0 3.6 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 -0.1 0.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )ظفار(

CPI Al Burami 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الربميي(

Monetary Sector (RO Billions) قطاع النقد ) مليار ر.ع(

M2 3.6 4.5 6.1 7.5 7.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 12.7 ال�صي�لة املحلية )م2(

Total Credit 3.9 4.7 6.5 9.3 9.8 10.7 12.5 14.3 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.7 15.2 14.3 15.6 اإجمايل االإئتمان

Personal Loans 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 القرو�ص ال�صخ�صية

Average Interest Rate (%) 6.4 7.0 7.1 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.9 مت��صط �صعر الفائدة )%(

Manpower in Private Sector (Net total at period end, ‹000s) الق�ى العاملة يف القطاع اخلا�ص )�شايف الإجمايل يف نهاية الفرتة(

Omani (PASI) 98.5 114.3 131.8 147.2 158.3 177.7 174.4 172.1 174.0 175.0 173.0 172.1 174.6 177.6 179.5 181.9 186.1 عماين

Expatriate 424.8 510.7 638.4 794.9 874.2 955.6 1114.6 1316.2 1172.5 1229.6 1271.1 1316.2 1480.8 1498.3 1515.6 1527.2 1535.9 وافد

1 financial intermediation indirectly measured and import taxes are allocated completely to the non oil sector in these data 1 ال��صاطة املالية املقدرة بطريقة غري مبا�صرة وال�صرائب على ال�اردات خ�ص�صت بالكامل للأن�صطة غري النفطية يف هذه البيانات.

2 The base year for CPI for 2013 has been updated to be 2012 instead of 2000. ا عن 2000. 2 مت حتديث ال�صنة املرجعية للأرقام القيا�صية الأ�صعار امل�صنهلكني لعام 2013 لتك�ن �صنة اال�صا�ص 2012 ع��صً

Economic ReviewFirst Quarter 2014 September 2014

20

20

مالمح اإلقتصاد العمانيلعـام 2014م الربـع األول - سبتمبر 2014

Indicators2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014

امل�ؤ�شـــــــرات

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1GDP Current (RO Billions) الناجت املحلي الإجمايل بالأ�شعار اجلارية )مليار ر.ع(

All Economy 11.9 14.2 16.1 23.4 18.5 22.6 26.9 30.0 7.4 15.2 22.1 30.0 7.7 15.5 22.7 30.6 7.4 جميع االإقت�صاد

% Change 25.3 19.1 13.8 45.0 -20.6 21.9 19.0 11.6 18.9 16.2 13.1 11.6 4.1 1.5 2.6 2.8 4.6 التغري )%(

Oil GDP 5.9 6.7 7.1 11.8 7.4 10.4 14.1 15.7 3.7 7.9 11.5 15.7 3.8 7.6 11.4 15.2 3.8 الناجت املحلي االإجمايل النفطي

% Change 44.1 14.7 5.9 65.9 -37.7 40.7 36.1 10.9 25.7 19.9 11.2 10.9 2.4 -3.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 التغري )%(

Non Oil GDP1 6.0 7.5 9.0 11.6 11.1 12.2 12.8 15.9 3.7 7.4 11.3 15.9 3.9 7.9 12.2 17.2 4.0 الناجت املحلي االإجمايل غري النفطي 1

% Change 10.0 25.9 20.0 28.9 -4.3 9.9 4.9 12.0 15.6 10.9 14.1 12.0 7.0 7.3 7.9 7.6 8.3 التغري )%(

Oman Crude Oil النفط اخلام العماين

Price (US$/BBL) 50.3 61.4 65.2 101.1 56.70 76.6 103.0 109.6 109.1 119.1 100.5 109.7 107.0 106.2 101.4 107.0 106.0 ال�صعر )دوالر/برميل(

Production (Mn BBL) 283 269 259 277 297 305 304 336 72 73 76 77 85 85 78 87 85 االإنتاج )ملي�ن برميل(

Trade (RO Billions) التجارة) مليار ر.ع(

Oil Exports 6.0 6.7 7.2 11.0 6.9 9.7 12.8 14.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 ال�صادرات النفطية

Non Oil Exports 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ال�صادرات الغري نفطية

Re-exports 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 اإعادة الت�صدير

Imports 3.4 4.2 6.1 8.8 6.9 7.6 9.1 10.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.8 ال�اردات

Price Indices (Quarterly)2م�ؤ�شرات الأ�شعار )ربعي(2

Consumer Price Index Oman 101.7 105.2 111.4 125.2 129.5 133.7 139.2 143.2 141.8 141.9 144.2 145.2 100.7 100.6 101.5 101.6 101.5 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني بال�صلطنة

CPI Oman (Change %) 1.9 3.5 5.9 12.4 3.4 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 التغري )%(

CPI Muscat 1.2 3.2 5.1 12.8 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.0 3.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.8 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )م�صقط(

CPI Al Batinah North 2.1 4.6 8.4 11.2 1.2 1.7 4.3 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 4.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )�صمال الباطنة(

CPI Al Dhahirah 2.5 2.4 5.8 12.0 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.2 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الظاهرة(

CPI Al Dakhiliyah 1.5 3.2 6.6 11.3 0.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.0 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الداخلية(

CPI Ash Sharqiyah (North & South) 3.9 3.9 5.5 15.1 2.7 1.2 4.2 0.9 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )جن�ب و�صمال ال�صرقية(

CPI Dhofar 2.4 3.1 5.0 10.0 3.6 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 -0.1 0.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )ظفار(

CPI Al Burami 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 الرقم القيا�صي العام الأ�صعار امل�صتهلكني )الربميي(

Monetary Sector (RO Billions) قطاع النقد ) مليار ر.ع(

M2 3.6 4.5 6.1 7.5 7.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 12.7 ال�صي�لة املحلية )م2(

Total Credit 3.9 4.7 6.5 9.3 9.8 10.7 12.5 14.3 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.7 15.2 14.3 15.6 اإجمايل االإئتمان

Personal Loans 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 القرو�ص ال�صخ�صية

Average Interest Rate (%) 6.4 7.0 7.1 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.9 مت��صط �صعر الفائدة )%(

Manpower in Private Sector (Net total at period end, ‹000s) الق�ى العاملة يف القطاع اخلا�ص )�شايف الإجمايل يف نهاية الفرتة(

Omani (PASI) 98.5 114.3 131.8 147.2 158.3 177.7 174.4 172.1 174.0 175.0 173.0 172.1 174.6 177.6 179.5 181.9 186.1 عماين

Expatriate 424.8 510.7 638.4 794.9 874.2 955.6 1114.6 1316.2 1172.5 1229.6 1271.1 1316.2 1480.8 1498.3 1515.6 1527.2 1535.9 وافد

1 financial intermediation indirectly measured and import taxes are allocated completely to the non oil sector in these data 1 ال��صاطة املالية املقدرة بطريقة غري مبا�صرة وال�صرائب على ال�اردات خ�ص�صت بالكامل للأن�صطة غري النفطية يف هذه البيانات.

2 The base year for CPI for 2013 has been updated to be 2012 instead of 2000. ا عن 2000. 2 مت حتديث ال�صنة املرجعية للأرقام القيا�صية الأ�صعار امل�صنهلكني لعام 2013 لتك�ن �صنة اال�صا�ص 2012 ع��صً

Documents

Economic Review 2014 - ncsi.gov.om Q 201… · Oil activities value added declined by 0.2% at the end of March 2014 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year to reach