Simulations, Observations & Palæoclimatic data: climate variability over the last 500 years

ECHAM4/HOPE-G = ECHO-G

runs, forcings, results so far

Hans von StorchInstitute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany

SO&P startup meeting, Norwich, 23+24 January 2003

List of simulations

ECHO-G f77Control run, 1990 conditions, 1000 year long

Forced run, 1500-1990, 12-h output “Christof Columbus”

Forced run: 1650-1710, 12-h outputForced run: 1650-1710, 6-h output

ECHO-G f90

Remo

Remo

Control run, 1990 conditions, 400 years longControl run, 1850 conditions, 1000 years long

Forced run, 1000-2000, 12-h output ongoing)“Erik the Red”

Control run, 1610 conditions, 50 years longForced run, 1650-1710, 6-h output

Planed simulations ECHO-G f90

A second Forced simulation 1000-2000Depending on differences between both forced simulations f77 f90

Forced simulation 1750-2000, no volcanoes

Forced simulation 1750-2000, no solar variability

Forced simulation 1750-2000, no greenhouse gas variability

Planed simulations REMO

Medieval Optimum, Europe

Model used is ECHO-G,a community model provided by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,maintained by Model & Data at MPI for Meteorology in Hamburg

The runs are made and evaluated in a consortium:a) Institute for Coastal Research, GKSSb) Meteorological Department, Free University Berlinc) Model & Data, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburgd) Department for Meteorology and Climatology, U Complutense, Madridand Universities in Lecce (Italy), Nanjing (China).

Comparison with historical and geological data are made together witha) „KIHZ partners“ (Alfred Wegener I, Bremerhaven;

Geoforschungszentrum, Potsdam; FZ Jülich, and others)b) U Bern, Switzerland

Variations in the effective solar constant including variations in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols (Crowley, 2000)

Estimated changes in CO2 (Etheridge et al., 1996)

Estimated changes in methane CH4

More actual data via internet

Temperature Responses

Tett, pers. comm.

(a) NAOI in the forced climate simulation, simulated by the ECHO-G model, and reconstructed from the simulated air-temperature field and the precipitation field in the North Atlantic sector over land grid points. (b) As (a) with a 50-year gaussian filter.

(c) NAOI as in (b) but in the control simulation.

Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002

control

forced

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Late Maunder Minimum

Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710

The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe.

Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification.From Luterbacher, 2001

1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998)grey: Index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean

Lake Sediments From Lake Holzmaar

magnetic susceptibility =clastic input?

13C

+ Aulacoseira subarctica

Reduced growing season?

Dryer winters?

1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

Late Maunder Minimum

Model-based reconstuction

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I f KGlobal 1675-1710 temperature anomaly

Model as a constructive tool

Corals off Madagaskar

The empirically reconstructed 338 year record of variations in sea-surface temperatures as inferred from the 1982-95 annual mean 18O -SST calibration equations using SST observations from different sources.

(From Zinke)

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        Galapagos (E-Pacific, 1oS, 90oW, Dunbar et al., 1994):

367 years of coral 18O records from 1587-1953, with annual resolution. The intervals 1660-80, 1710-1800 and 1870-95 were found warmer than “normal”, whereas the intervals 1600-1660, 1680-1700 (LMM) and 1800-25 cooler than on average. 18O increases of about 0.1-0.15‰ heavier during LMM than between 1660-70 and 1705-50 is indicative for a cooling of 0.5-0.75K.

        New Caledonia (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 166oE, Quinn et al., 1998):

335 years of coral 18O records from 1657-1952, with seasonal resolution. The records describe a brief interval of modest cooling in the late 17th century, with an annual mean SST about 0.2-0.3K cooler between 1680-1740 than between 1660-80 and 1740-50

        Great Barrier Reef, Abraham Reef (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 153oE, Druffel and Griffin, 1993):

323 years of coral 18O records from 1635-1957, with bi-annual resolution. More positive 18O values (ca. 0.1‰) during the LMM, are consistent with lower SST’s of about 0.5K

Zink

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Marine Sediments Off Peru

Indicator for bio-productivity and intensity of upwelling in the ocean off Peru. The indicator is derived from characteristics in the marine sediment. Higher values are associated with stronger upwelling and lower values with reduced upwelling.

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Ice Cores From Greenland and Antarctica

Stacked isotope record from five North-Greenland ice cores (Schwager, 2000)

Stacked isotope record from three ice cores from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (Graf et al., in press )

Reconstruction of solar

variability, deduced from

10Be measurements

(Crowley, 2000)

Antarctica

North Greenland

LMM1 1671-1684 NAO- and Cooling LMM2 1685-1708

NAO+ and Warming

Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.

Simulated differences of ice coverage, in percent, during the LMM event 1675-1710 and the long term mean 1550-1800.

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Model as a constructive tool

Resolution:• T30• 6 hourly

01.01.384

Forcing data from ECHO-GForcing data from ECHO-G(special run Late Maunder Minimum)(special run Late Maunder Minimum)

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

Resolution:spatial 0.5° x 0.5°temporal 6 h

Model AreaModel Area

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

3

8

5

4

6

1

9

2

11

10

7N

EW

S

Eisbedeckungsgrad [%]3. März 1692

0 - 1010 - 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 8080 - 9090 - 100

0 200 400 600Kilometers

Regionalized sea ice dataRegionalized sea ice data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550 1650 1750 1850 1950

forest farmland greenland infrastructure water

Main land use types in Germany from 7th centuryMain land use types in Germany from 7th century

area

[%]

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

DifferencesDifferences

reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

January

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

DifferencesDifferences

reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

July

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

Differences of 30-year monthly meansDifferences of 30-year monthly meansLMM(6h)** - ”Normal Period“ (12h)*

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

LMM-NP -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.1

* 1625-1655** 1675-1705Beate Müller, pers.

comm.

Iberian peninsulaIberian peninsula

Dezember Januar Februar Dezember

268

270

272

274

276

278

280

282

284

286

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Januar

268

270

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Februar

268

270

272

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286

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Juni Juli August

Juni

282

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288

290

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300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Juli

282

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300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

August

282

284

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288

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300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

WinterWinter

SummerSummer

ECHO-GREMO

Luterbacher

Beate Müller, pers. comm.

DJF-Mean Temperatures of DJF-Mean Temperatures of 1776-17051776-1705

266

268

270

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280

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

van den Dool REMO-C02 ECHO-C02 Luterbacher

De Bilt Central England

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29Manley REMO-C02 ECHO-C02 Luterbacher

ECHO-GREMO

Luterbacher

Luterbacher/Manley

Beate Müller, pers. comm.