Early Childhood Poverty and Adult Productivity and Health

Greg J. DuncanUniversity of California, Irvine

Poverty rate for children < 6 years old

Does poverty early in life impair Does poverty early in life impair adult productivity?adult productivity?

What role, if any, does child What role, if any, does child health play in the connection?health play in the connection?

Possible MechanismsPossible Mechanisms• Child health pathway: low income may lead

health events to translate into poorer child health, less exercise, etc.

• Barker hypothesis: Prenatal poverty may lead to fetal undernutrition and misaligned “fetal programming”

• Stress/inflammation hypothesis: Prenatal and early childhood stress -> poorer immune function, HPA and autonomic systems -> cardiovascular and immune function conditions

Ill h

ealt

h

Family income

Age 0-3

Ill Health and Family Income, Ill Health and Family Income, by Age of Childby Age of Child

Source: Case, Lubotsky and Paxson (2003)

~ ½ point on an excellent/poor health scale

Ill h

ealt

h

Family income

Age 0-3

Age 4-8

Age 9-12

Ill Health and Family Income, Ill Health and Family Income, by Age of Childby Age of Child

Source: Case, Lubotsky and Paxson (2003)

nearly one point on an excellent/poor health scale

Poverty early in life and adult productivity and

health

Data

• Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID)

• Subjects were born into study families between 1968 and 1975 (n = 885)

– Adult health measured in 2005 when respondents 30-37 years of age

• Income measured each year between prenatal year and age 15

Associations Between ~age 35 Outcomes and Prenatal to Age 5

Income

18

45

25

7 4

2732

10 7 6

40

26

103 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Earnings ($1,000) Obese Hypertension Arthritis Diabetes

Poor Near poor Not close

Regression modelRegression model

Adult Outcome =

β1 Prenatal to age 5 income +

β2 Age 6-10 income +

β3 Age 11-15 income +

β4 Prenatal demographic controls +

β5 Parent health

Hypothesized relationship between early-childhood income and adult outcomes

SummarySummary

• 1 in 4 young children in the US is poor

• Early childhood poverty is associated with lower adult productivity (earnings)

• Early poverty is also associated with health limiting conditions at age 35

• We need to better understand the possible child health pathway

gduncan@uci.edu