Early Childhood Poverty Early Childhood Poverty and Adult Attainmentand Adult Attainment

Greg J. Duncan

University of California, IrvineThe National Forum on Early Childhood Policy and

Programs

Poverty rate for children < 6 years old

My talk: My talk:

Does poverty compromise Does poverty compromise children’s life chanceschildren’s life chances??

How would adult outcomes change in response to a policy that boosted

poor children’s family income, but did not directly change any other

characteristic of their parents or family environments?

A Process ModelA Process Model

Early childhood poverty

Purchased inputs

Cognitive stimulation in the home

Type and quality of child care

Quality of schools and neighborhood

Family processes

Maternal mental health

Parenting

Child Achievement, Behavior and

Health

Early brain development

Adult Achievement, Behavior and

Health

The Empirical ModelThe Empirical Model

Early childhood poverty Adult

Achievement, Behavior and

Health

Adult OutcomesAdult Outcomes (up to age 37) (up to age 37)

Completed schooling Labor market earnings and hours Welfare income receipt Health Arrest and incarceration Out of wedlock child bearing

Data and SampleData and Sample

Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), 1968-2006

Children born between 1968 and 1975

Adult outcomes measured between ages 25 and as late as age 37 for the earliest cohort

Income measured prenatal to age 15; demographic controls measured around or before birth

Associations with childhood income

UnadjustedSchooling .34*Earnings .31*Work hours

.15*

Poor Health

-.13*

Arrests -.17*Nonmarital birth

-.38*

Associations with childhood income, without and with adjustments for parent

schooling, etc.Unadjusted Adjusted

Schooling .34* .14*Earnings .31* .23*Work hours

.15* .11*

Poor Health

-.13* -.02

Arrests -.17* -.09Nonmarital birth

-.38* -.26*

Adult attainment and early-childhood income

Early-childhood income

Regression modelRegression model

Adult outcome =

f ( Prenatal to age 5 income +

Age 6-10 income +

Age 11-15 income +

Prenatal demographic controls )

Increase in adult earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income

Norwegian replication: adult earnings

Increase in adult work hours associated with a $3,000 annual increase in income

Statistically significant effects

Earnings Workhours

Prenatal to age 5

<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01

>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05

Age 10-15

<$25,000 ns ns

>$25,000 ns ns

Statistically significant effects

Earnings Workhours

Food stamps

Prenatal to age 5

<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01 p<.05

>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05 ns

Age 10-15

<$25,000 ns ns p<.05

>$25,000 ns ns ns

Statistically significant effects

Earnings Workhours

Food stamps

Poor health

Arrests

OWBirth

Prenatal to age 5

<$25,000 p<.05 p<.01 p<.05 ns ns ns

>$25,000 p<.01 p<.05 ns ns ns ns

Age 10-15

<$25,000 ns ns p<.05 ns ns ns

>$25,000 ns ns ns p<.05 p<.01

p<.01

Policy considerations Earnings coefficients imply:

$3,000 increase in income for 7 years between prenatal and 5th birthday year is associated with: 17% higher adult earnings 152 more work hours per year

Concentrate income transfers (e.g., ETIC, child tax credit) on the p-5 periods?