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Drug Policy is Deja Vu All Over Again. Stephen T. Easton Simon Fraser University and The Fraser Institute. To set the stage for today’s discussion:. We need to go back a little to see how future history will treat us by remembering the last prohibition. Remember the Last Great Prohibition. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Drug Policy is Deja Vu All Over Again
Stephen T. EastonSimon Fraser University
andThe Fraser Institute
To set the stage for today’s discussion:
We need to go back a little to see how future history will treat us by remembering the last prohibition
Remember the Last Great Prohibition
Canada prohibited the consumption of alcohol from 1917 to 1922 (more or less)
The United States prohibited the consumption of alcohol from 1918 to 1932
The Consequences
As an enduring testament to futility, Recall that the “Untouchables” is
still running on TV.
History anyone?
There they are, deeply committed to fighting what is now a legal and respectable line of work: brewing and distributing alcohol.
So, sip your Chardonnay, have a brew, or mix a retro martini and applaud Elliot Ness and the Untouchables as he fights your kind of crime.
A Message to Current History
We cannot prevent people from consuming illegal substances that they want
It is a war that was lost in the 1920s and 1930s and is being lost again
Let’s take a look at the facts
Lifetime Numbers
Reality CheckDrug Lifetime
UsageNumber of
Adults
Marijuana/cannabis 23.1% 5,320,000Cocaine 3.8% 875,000LSD 5.2% 1,200,000Speed 2.1% 485,000Heroin 0.5% 115,000
Current Users
Current UsersMarijuana/cannabis 7.4%Cocaine 0.7%LSD
SpeedHeroin
1.1%
Business is about Resource Allocation
What do we do in a “business” oriented approach?
Business is about Resource Allocation
We look at the harm inflicted.We look at the difficulty of
enforcementWe reallocate resources so that they
reflect the observation that an additional unit of effort yield the same payoff in each activity to which we are committed
Business is about Resource Allocation
We spend too much time and money on vainly trying to control the uncontrollable -- Elliott Ness and you.
We spend too little time in preventing, educating and remedying those who are in misery with drugs.
Incidentally, our policy makes available large sums of money to people who violate the law.
So Is Drug Control Really about the Harm they do?
Let’s ask about what is currently legal:
Tobacco and Alcohol
27% of the Canadian Population Currently Smoke (Tobacco)
TobaccoHabits Usage
%Cigarettes(billion)
Cigarettes per dayper smoker
Never 46Former 26Present 27 52.8 20.5
72% of Canadians Use this Formerly Formerly “Prohibited”“Prohibited” Substance
Alcohol Consumption
Current Litres of Alcohol per person Drinks Heavy Drinks
Drinkers Beer Wine Spirits per week Occasions per Heavy
72.30% 4.3 1.2 2.1 4.2 46% (15) 5
What is the Putative Effect of Behaviours such as Smoking and Drinking?
Attributed Consequencesof
Tobacco and Alcohol ConsumptionAttributed
SourceAttributed Mortality
AnnualTotal
Rate per100,000
AttributedHospital
Days('millions)
Tobacco 33,500 118* 3.02***Alcohol 6,700 23.6** 1.15****
*17 and **3.4 percent of deaths from all causes***7 and ****2.8 percent of hospitalizations from all causes
What is the message?
Clearly, the harm the substance may do is not the criterion by which we determine illegality.
Even with the poignant story over the weekend, nobody is suggesting banning cars that can drive fast simply because some do drive fast.
The futility of trying to stop drugs from the production end
Let us take the most obvious example of drug production that absorbs police energy:
Marijuana ProductionIt is profitableIt is easy.
Some Costs of Production
Material Costs of a Grow-opCost of growing equipment andsupplies
$6,000
Miscellaneous supplies for future crops $4,000House rental for 1 year $18,000Electricity bypass 0Labour Cost: tending and guarding 72,000
Total expenses $100,000
So Why Do It?
Cost $100,000Value of Crop $50,0003 Crops a Year!Value of $150,000 on a Cost of
$100,000.A very good return on capital even
with these very, very conservative assumptions
There is lots of money in marijuana, not to mention the other drugs
Marijuana alone probably nets at least $700 million into producers’ pockets -- just in Vancouver.
Drug W and Charges Canada and British Columbia, 1998
1998population:
CANADABC
30,300,424,009,922
BC’s population is 13% ofCanada
IncidentsKnown to
Canada BC BC Incidents Cleared byCharge
the Police Actual Actual Share CanadaNumber Number of
CanadaBC net of BC
Heroin - Total 1,317 894 68% 70% 71%Cocaine - Total 12,184 3,570 29% 68% 75%
Possession 34,907 8,848 25% 19% 68%Trafficking 7,869 1,099 14% 61% 68%Importation 998 79 8% 9% 13%Cultivation 7,535 2,347 31% 32% 34%Cannabis -
Total51,309 12,373 24% 25% 62%
What does the pattern mean?
In BC marijuana possession is in some sort of legal limbo.
How the Courts proceed is anyone’s guess
It is not just we, the general public who are confused about “crime” and “punishment”
So is our money well spent?
It is pretty clear that enforcement in the case of marijuana (and most other drugs) has not limited their accessibility -- just ask at any local high school, not only at Hastings and Main.
Many producers use drug money for other undesirable ends (just like Al Capone)
What if we legalize drugs?
We will end the supply of money to people who use it for bad ends.
More people will “do” them. Yes, but we can treat/educate in the open. Just imagine if alcohol was still illegal.
Replay Hastings and Main multiplied by a factor of 70!
Conclusion
We have a problem. We have been trying to interdict the supply and punish users and suppliers.
Prohibition does not seem to work and is very costly -- as detailed by others here.
The costs of the alternative, if alcohol prohibition is a model, are worth considering.
Oh yes, as an economist
If it is legal, we get to measure it, tax it, and regulate it, something we simply cannot do when it is illegal.