DRAFT PEDESTRIAN TRAVEL-TIME MAPS FOR CORDOVA, ALASKA:

An anisotropic model to support tsunami evacuation planning

by

D.J. Nicolsky, L.A. Gardine, and A.E. Macpherson

ABSTRACT Tsunami-inducedpedestrian evacuation for Cordova is evaluated using an anisotropicmodeling approachdevelopedbytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey.Themethodisbasedonpath-distancealgorithmsandaccountsforvariationsinlandcoveranddirectionalityintheslopeofterrain.Wemodelevacuationofpedestrianstoexitpointsfromthetsunamihazardzone.Thepedestriantravelisrestrictedtotheroadsonly.Resultspresentedhere are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies for tsunami inundationassessment,evacuationplanning,andpubliceducationtomitigatefuturetsunamihazards.

TheCordovaWaterfrontandsmallboatharbor.PhotobyRichD.Koehler.

DISCLAIMER: The developed pedestrian travel-time maps have been completed using the best information available and are believed to be accurate; however, their preparation required many assumptions. Actual conditions during a tsunami may vary from those assumed, so the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Areas inundated will depend on specifics of the earthquake, any earthquake-triggered landslides, on-land construction, tide level, local ground subsidence, and may differ from the areas shown on the map. Information on this map is intended to permit state and local agencies to plan emergency evacuation and tsunami response actions. The Alaska Earthquake Center and the University of Alaska Fairbanks make no express or implied representations or warranties (including warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose) regarding the accuracy of neither this product nor the data from which the pedestrian travel time maps were derived. In no event shall the Alaska Earthquake Center or the University of Alaska Fairbanks be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages with respect to any claim by any user or any third party on account of or arising from the use of this map.

DRAFT

INTRODUCTION Subduction of the Pacific plate under the North American plate has resulted in numerous great

earthquakesandhasthehighestpotentialtogeneratetsunamisinAlaska(DunbarandWeaver,2015).TheAlaska–Aleutiansubductionzone(figure1),thefaultformedbythePacific–NorthAmericanplateinterface,isthemostseismicallyactivetsunamigenicfaultzoneintheU.S.RefertoNicolskyandothers(2014)foranoverviewofthetsunamihazardintheCordovaarea.

ThemostrecentearthquakethattriggeredasignificanttsunamiinCordovaoccurredonMarch27,1964;forthisevent,tsunamiwaveswereashighas7.6m(25ft)(Lander,1996).ThetsunamicauseddamagetosomecoastalfacilitiesandadrowningatasmallfishingcampsouthwestofCordova(WilsonandTørum,1972,andPlafkerandothers,1969).Anin-depthanalysisofthetsunamihazardinCordovaandestimationofthetsunamihazardzoneinthecommunityisprovidedbyNicolskyandothers(2014).

Figure 1: Map of south-central Alaska, showing the location of Cordova and the rupture zone of the 1964 Aleutian subduction zone earthquake (shaded area).

In thisreport,weemploy thepedestrianevacuationmodeling toolsdevelopedbytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey (USGS) (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013; Jones and others, 2014) to provide guidance toemergencymanagers and community planners in assessing the amount of time required for people toevacuateoutofthetsunami-hazardzone.Anoverviewofthepedestrianevacuationmodelingtools,requireddatasets,andthestep-by-stepprocedureusedisprovidedinMacphersonandothers(2017,thisseries).ThemapsofpedestriantraveltimecanhelpidentifyareasinCordovaonwhichtofocusevacuationtrainingandtsunamieducation.

DRAFT

COMMUNITY PROFILE ThecityofCordova(60°32’N,145°45’W)wasfoundedinMarch1906,neartheAlaskaNativeVillageof

Eyak,antthebaseofMountEyak.Thecityisroughly52mi(83km)southeastofValdezand150mi(240km)southeastofAnchorage.Initsearlyyears,CordovawasaterminusfortheCopperRiverandNorthwesternRailroad.Today,CordovaisafishingandcanningcenterforthePrinceWilliamSoundRegion.TheCordovaharborisaportfortheAlaskaMarineHighwaySystemandhasferryserviceyear-round.Accordingtothe2010census,thecitypopulationis2,289.

The1964earthquakecausedwidespreaddamagetoinfrastructureoutsidethecityofCordova,howevertheensuingtsunamicausedthemajorityofdamagetothecityitself.Accordingtoreports,sixtsunamiwavesstrucktheharbor.Thehighestwavecoincidedwiththehighesttideandwasreportedtoreach20ftaboveMeanLowerLowWater(MLLW)andfloodedupto300ftinland.SeeNicolskyandothers,2014formoreonthe1964tsunamiimpact.

TSUNAMI HAZARD TsunamihazardassessmentforCordovawasperformedbynumericallymodelingseveralhypothetical

scenarios (Nicolsky and others, 2014). The worst-case scenarios for Cordova are thought to be thrustearthquakesbeneathPrinceWilliamSoundwithmagnitudesaboveMw8.8.

Nicolskyandothers(2014)estimatethatthetsunamiwavecouldbearound6m(18ft)highandwouldarriveapproximately1hraftertheearthquake.ModeledextentsofthepotentialinundationintheCordovaharborareacomputedbyNicolskyandothers(2014)isshownbytheredlineinfigure2.

Thehydrodynamicmodelused to calculatepropagation and runupof tsunami(Nicolsky andothers,2011)haspassed the appropriate validation andverification tests (Synolakisandothers,2007;NTHMP,2012).Weemphasizethatalthoughthedevelopedalgorithmhasmetthebenchmarkingprocedures,thereisstilluncertaintyinlocatinganinundationline.Forexample,theaccuracyisaffectedbymanyfactorsonwhichthemodelisbased,includingsuitabilityoftheearthquakesourcemodel,accuracyofthebathymetricandtopographicdata,andtheadequacyofthenumericalmodelinrepresentingthegeneration,propagation,andrunupoftsunamis.WerefertoNicolskyandothers(2014)forfurtherin-depthdiscussionoftheuncertaintyinthemodeledtsunamihazardzone.

To account for the above-mentioned uncertainties, we enlarge the modeled extent of potentialinundationbyaddingasafetybuffer.Inparticular,areaswithin45m(150ft)oftheinundationlineandwiththeelevationslessthan110%ofthelocalrunuparethoughttobeariskoffloodingintheworst-casetsunamievent.

Thepotentialinundationextenttogetherwiththesafetybufferistobecalledthetsunamihazardzone,andisusedfortheevacuationmapdevelopment.Wenotethatthesafetybufferdoesnotextendfurtherthan45m(150ft)fromtheinundationlineandcanincreasetheverticalelevationatmostby10%.Thesafetybufferissmallerintheareaswithsteepertopography.Inratherflatareas,thesafetybuffercanreachthe45m(150ft)inthehorizontaldirection.Figure2showsthetsunamihazardzoneintheCordovaharborarearepresentedbytheblueline,alsoseeMapSheet1foralargecopy.Notethatthesafetybufferisthegreatestintheflatareas.Extentofthetsunamihazardzones(bufferedinundationextent)forsouthernCordovaandtheareanearThreeMileBayareshowninMapSheet2.

DRAFT

PEDESTRIAN EVACUATION MODELING Pedestrian evacuationmodeling and prediction of population vulnerability to tsunami hazardswere

successfullyappliedtocoastalcommunitiesinAlaskabyWoodandPeters(2015).AlsorefertoWoodandSchmidtlein (2012, 2013) for an overview and limitations of the anisotropic, least-cost distance (LCD)approachtomodelingpedestrianevacuation.WestressthattheLCDfocusesontheevacuationlandscape,usingcharacteristicssuchaselevation,slope,andlandcovertocalculatethemostefficientpathtosafety.Therefore, computed travel times are based on optimal routes, and actual travel timesmay be greaterdependingonindividualroutechoiceandenvironmentalconditionsduringanevacuation.

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Figure 2: Map of Cordova boat harbor and ferry terminal depicting modeled extent of the potential inundation (red line) and the tsunami hazard zone (blue line). Exit points are shown by green squares.

DRAFT

Recently,Jonesandothers(2014)developedthePedestrianEvacuationAnalystExtension(PEAE)for

ArcGIS,whichfacilitatesdevelopmentofpedestriantravel-timemaps.AbriefoverviewofthePEAEandastep-by-step procedure to compute thepedestrian travel-timemaps for Alaska coastal communities areprovidedinMacphersonandothers(2017,thisseries).NotethatthedatarequiredforthePEAEinclude:eitherthetsunamihazardzoneorexitpoints,digitalelevationmodel(DEM)ofthecommunity,andland-coverdatasets.Inthefollowingsectionswedescribedatasetsrequiredtocomputethetravel-timemaps,consideredscenarios,andmodelingresults.

DATA COMPILATION AND SOURCES Thefollowingsectiondetailsthedatasetsthatwereobtainedand/orcreatedforthecommunitytobe

usedasinputforthePEAE.Inallcasesweusedthemaximumcompositetsunamihazardzoneinsteadofaspecifictectonicscenario.AlldatasetsandlayerswereprojectedtoNAD83AlaskaStatePlaneZone3mtoallowustocomputethefinalevacuationtimesinminutes.TheoriginalsourcesofdataaresummarizedinTable1.

• Exitpoints:Exitpointsarelocatedontheroadsleadingfromthetsunamihazardzonetotheassemblyareasandshelters.Greenrectanglesinfigure2(orMapSheet1,MapSheet2)marklocationsoftheexitpoints.

• DigitalElevationModel:TheDEMemployedinthisstudyisconsistentwiththetsunamiDEMusedbyNicolskyandothers(2014)tocomputethetsunamiinundation.TheoriginalsourcefortopographicelevationsistheNationalGeophysicalDataCenter(NOAA),withaspatialresolutionofabout13×16m(44x54ft).NotethatthetsunamiDEMwasre-sampledusingthePEAEtooltosettheanalysiscellsizeat3m(10ft)resolutiontoimprovetheaccuracyofthetravel-timemaps.

• Land Cover: Roads and trails were added from the OpenStreetMap API (OSM, 2015) andconfirmedusinghigh-resolutionimageryfromtheDigitalGlobeImageryprovidedbyESRI.Onlytheconstructedandwell-maintainedroadsareusedinthecomputations.

Table 1. Data sources of the input layers required for the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Extension.

LayerinPEAE DataSources

TsunamiInundationExtent Nicolskyandothers(2014)

ExitpointsLocatedontheroadsleadingfromthebufferedinundationextent.Locationsoftheexitpointsarechosentogetherwiththecommunitymembers

DEM Caldwellandothers(2009)LandCover DigitalGlobeimagery

Roads OpenStreetMap,expandedusingDigitalGlobeImageryImagery DigitalGlobeimagery

EVACUATION SCENARIOS

Wemodelthepedestrianevacuationtimeforonescenario1-Evacuation to the nearest exit point by roads only.

Weemphasizethattheassumedbasespeedoftheevacueeissetaccordingtothe“slowwalk”option(0.91m/s,3ft/s,or2mph)inthePEAEsettings.Notethatthisisaconservativespeedandmanyresidents

1 Additionalscenarioscouldbeconsideredandaddedbasedonthecommunityfeedback.

DRAFT

would be able to evacuate faster (1.52m/s “fastwalk”, if not 1.79m/s “slow run”) as themodeled rate.However,soilliquefaction,darkness,freezingrain,iceand/orsnowontheroadcanalsosignificantlyimpactthewalkingpaceofevacuees.Additionally,inthecaseofsevereweatherconditionsorathicksnowcover,theevacuationmightbeconfinedtowell-traveledroadsandpaths.Wethereforeassumethatpedestrianswilltraveltotheclosestroadandthenstayonroadstoleavethetsunamihazardzone.Wealsoassumethatindividualstraveltothenearestexitpointinthemostoptimalway.Thelatterrequirestsunamievacuationsignagealongtheroads

MODELING RESULTS

WeapplythemethodologyoutlinedinMacphersonandothers(2017,thisseries)tocomputethetraveltimesaccordingtotheconsideredscenarios.Thepedestriantravel-timemapsfortheharborareaareshowninFigure3(seealsoMapSheet3foralargercopy).ModelingresultsforsouthernCordovaaroundThreeMileBayareshowninFigure4(orMapSheet4).

Modeledpedestriantraveltimestoexitpoints(shownbygreen squares) can reachupwards of 20 minutes forevacueesattheFerryTerminalandcanexceed30minutesforevacuees on New EnglandCanery Rd., north of theterminal. These estimates donotincludeanymillingtimeoradditional extras needed todeboard the ferry. Cleartsunami evacuation signs anddirection could be used toguide the public out of thehazardzone.

The modeling results forsouthern Cordova (Figure 4)show that areas alongWhitshed Rd., south of ThreeMile Bay, would requireevacueestotravelupwardsof30 minutes to reach thenearestexitpoint.

Figure 3: Travel time maps for the pedestrian evacuation for Cordova harbor area. Exit points are marked by the green rectangles, the tsunami hazard zone is shown by the blue line. Color gradation indicates how many minutes it would take for an evacuee to walk to the nearest exit point. The walking speed is assumed to be 3 ft/s or 2 mph.

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Adams Ave.

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Evacuation to exit points.

Pedestrian evacuates along roads and paths to exit pointsbeyond the hazard boundary.

Modeled with base travel speed of 2 miles per hour.

Time to Safety (minutes)

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DRAFT

SOURCES OF ERRORS AND UNCERTAINTIES Themodelingapproachdescribedinthisreportwillnotexactlyrepresentanactualevacuation;likeall

evacuationmodels,theLCDapproachcannotfullycaptureallaspectsofindividualbehaviorandmobility(Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Theweather conditions, severe shaking, soil liquefaction, infrastructurecollapse,downedelectricalwires,andtheinteractionofindividualsduringtheevacuationwillallinfluenceevacueemovement.RefertoWoodandSchmidtlein(2012,2013),Jonesandothers(2014),andMacphersonandothers(2017,thisseries)foranin-depthdiscussionofthelimitationsoftheLCDapproachinestimatingthetraveltimestosafety.

SUMMARY Pedestriantraveltimestothenearestexitpointfromthetsunamihazardzonearetypicallylessthan20

minutes,whichiswelllessthananestimatetraveltimeofthehypotheticaltsunamifromtheGulfofAlaskato the citywaterfront. The successful evacuation seems feasible given clear evacuation road sinage and

Figure 4: Travel time maps for the pedestrian evacuation for southern Cordova around Three Mile Bay. Exit points are marked by the green rectangles, the tsunami hazard zone is shown by the blue line. Color gradation indicates how many minutes it would take for an evacuee to walk to the nearest exit point. The walking speed is assumed to be 3 ft/s or 2 mph.

Whitshed Rd.

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Time to Safety (minutes)

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DRAFT

educationaleffortstoinformpublicabouttheoptimalroutestosafety.Atthesametime,CordovalikemanyotherAlaskacoastalcommunitiesisbuiltbetweenthemountainsandocean.Hence,thereisalongstretchof NewEnglandCanneryRd.inthetsunamihazardzone,theevacuationfromwhichmaybechallengingsinceitwouldtakeaconsiderableamountoftimetoevacueestoreachanearestexitpointfromthetsunamihazardzone.Evacuationontothemountainslopeisnotconsidered,becauseofthesteepterrainandabsenceoftheemergencyservices.Potentialrockfallsandsnowavalanchescouldbetriggeredbyaftershocksleadingtothesecondarycausalities.IndividualsalongsomepartsofNewEnglandCanneryRd.needtowalkfasterthan2mphorseekalternativeevacuationroutes(e.g.trails)inordertoreachsafetybeforethefirstwavearrives.

Maps accompanying this report have been completed using the best information available and arebelievedtobeaccurate;however,thereport’spreparationrequiredmanyassumptions.Inmostcasestheactual walking speeds proved faster than thosemodeled. The information presented on these maps isintendedtoassiststateandlocalagenciesinplanningemergencyevacuationandtsunamiresponseactions.Theseresultsarenotintendedforland-useregulationorbuilding-codedevelopment.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Localknowledgewasinvaluabletothisprojectandthemembersofthecommunitywereeagertodiscuss

their plans and thoughts. This project received support from the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)AwardNA18NWS4670068.

REFERENCES Caldwell,R.J.,Eakins,B.W.,andLim,E.,2009,Digitaleleva-tionmodelsofPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska—

Procedures,datasourcesandanalysis:Boulder,Colorado,NationalGeophysicalDataCenter,NOAA,43p.,www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dem/report/download/1305.

DCCED/DCRA (Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, Division ofCommunity and Regional Affairs, 2019, Community Information Database. https://dcra-cdo-dcced.opendata.arcgis.com/.Lastaccessed4/1/19.

Dunbar, P.K., andWeaver, C.S., 2015, U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment:Historical record and sources for waves – Update: Report, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration,38p.,Boulder,CO.

Jones,J.M.,Ng,P.,andWood,N.J.,2014,Thepedestrianevacuationanalyst—Geographicinformationsystemssoftware formodeling hazard evacuation potential: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques andMethods,Book11,chapterC9,25p.

Lander,J.F.,1996,TsunamisaffectingAlaska,1737–1996:Boulder,CO,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,NationalGeophysicalDataCenter(NGDC),KeytoGeophysicalResearchDocumentation,v.31,155p.

Macpherson,A.E.,D.J.Nicolsky,andR.D.Koehler,(2017),AnisotropicPedestrianEvacuationModelingforAlaskaCoastalCommunities:AlaskaEarthquakeCenter,https://earthquake.alaska.edu/tsunamis/

NationalTsunamiHazardMappingProgram(NTHMP),2012,Proceedingsandresultsofthe2011NTHMPModelBenchmarkingWorkshop,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,NOAASpecialReport,436p.

Nicolsky,D.J.,Suleimani,E.N.,andHansen,R.A.,2011,Validationandverificationofanumericalmodelfortsunamipropagationandrunup:PureandAppliedGeophysics,v.168,p.1,199–1,222.

Nicolsky,D.J.,Suleimani,E.N.,andR.D.Koehler,(2014),TsunamiInundationmapsofCordovaandTatitlek,Alaska:AlaskaDivisionofGeological&GeophysicalSurveysReportofInvestigation2014-1,49p.,2sheets.http://doi.org/10.14509/27241

Plafker,George,Kachadoorian,Reuben,Eckel,E.B.,andMayo,L.R.,1969,EffectsoftheearthquakeofMarch27,1964,onvariouscommunities:U.S.GeologicalSurveyProfessionalPaper542-G,50p.

Synolakis,C.E.,Bernard,E.N.,Titov,V.V.,Kânoğlu,U.,andGonzález,F.I.,2007,Standards,criteria,andproceduresforNOAAevaluationoftsunaminumericalmodels:Seattle,WA,NOAA/PacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory,TechnicalMemorandumOARPMEL-135,55p.

DRAFT

Wilson,B.W.,andTørum,Alf,1972,Effectsofthetsunamis—Anengineeringstudy,inTheGreatAlaska

Earthquakeof1964:Washington,DC,UnitedStates,NationalAcademyofSciences—Engineering,p.361–526.

Wood,N.J.,andSchmidtlein,M.C.,2012,Anisotropicpathmodelingtoassesspedestrian-evacuationpotentialfromCascadia-relatedtsunamisintheU.S.PacificNorthwest:NaturalHazards,62(2):275-300.

Wood,N.J.,andSchmidtlein,M.C.,2013,Communityvariationsinpopulationexposuretonear-fieldtsunamihazardsasafunctionofpedestriantraveltimetosafety:NaturalHazards,65(3):1603–1628.

Wood,N.J.,andPeters, Jeff,2015,Variations inpopulationvulnerability to tectonicand landslide-relatedtsunamihazardsinAlaska:NaturalHazards,75(2):1811–1831.

DRAFT

MAPSHEET1:Modeledextentofthepotentialinundationandestimatedtsunamihazardzone.

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DRAFT

MAPSHEET2:Modeledextentofthepotentialinundationandestimatedtsunamihazardzone(continued).

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DRAFT

MAPSHEET3:Travel-timemapofpedestrianevacuationtoexitpointsbeyondthehazard.

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Pedestrian evacuates along roads and paths to exit pointsbeyond the hazard boundary.

Modeled with base travel speed of 2 miles per hour.

Time to Safety (minutes)

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DRAFT

MAPSHEET4:Travel-timemapofpedestrianevacuationtoexitpointsbeyondthehazard(continued).

Whitshed Rd.

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Pedestrian evacuates along roads and paths to exit pointsbeyond the hazard boundary.

Modeled with base travel speed of 2 miles per hour.

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