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DRAFT CRM_InnoNet SUBSTITUTION ROADMAP:
HIGH-VALUE ALLOYS
16 January 2015
This project has received funding from the European
Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant
agreement no 319024.
Authors
CASPER VAN DER EIJK, SINTEF
MIKAEL LARSEN, SWEREA MEFOS
MIKEL MERTXAN, TECNALIA
WP5 Partners
COMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES
EUROPEAN MATERIALS RESEARCH SOCIETY
FRAUNHOFER-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FÖRDERUNG DER ANGEWANDTEN FORSCHUNG E.V.
STIFTELSEN SINTEF
SWEREA MEFOS AB
SEMI EUROPE-GRENOBLE OFFICE
SP SVERIGES TEKNISKA FORSKNINGSINSTITUT AB
FUNDACIÓN TECNALIA RESEARCH & INNOVATION
TNO NETHERLANDS ORGANISATION FOR APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND
KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER NETWORK
Contact
HIGH-VALUE ALLOYS LEAD CASPER VAN DER EIJK (SINTEF) EMAIL: [email protected] TEL: +47 98283989 WP5 – WP LEADER DANIELA VELTE (TECNALIA) EMAIL: [email protected] TEL: +34 607247591 GENERAL QUERIES: [email protected]
Introduction It is the purpose of the CRM_InnoNet roadmaps to shed light on possible pathways to material substitution in products and technologies essential for providing energy, transport and communication services. This document has been compiled for the purpose of the public consultation on the CRM Substitution Roadmaps prepared by CRM_InnoNet and presents some background information on how the CRM substitution roadmaps were elaborated as well as a short summary of the conclusions drawn from the roadmap elaboration in the priority area of High-value Alloys. This document should be read together with the draft roadmap table for High-value Alloys. Further information should be requested via [email protected].
CRM_InnoNet Roadmap Elaboration Five roadmaps have been elaborated in the context of the CRM_InnoNet project1 with focus on applications to be considered of strategic importance for the European industry and which may be exposed to potential Critical Raw Material (CRM) supply risks. CRM_InnoNet is concerned with the 14 raw materials identified as critical for the EU in 20102 and project work to date includes:
Mapping of the main uses and current substitution possibilities of the 14 CRMs3 (WP3) Detailed supply chain analysis of CRM-containing applications in the energy, ICT and electronics,
and transport sector4 (WP4) Methodology development and prioritisation of applications likely to be under threat from
bottlenecks in CRM supply (WP2)
Results obtained from WPs 3, 4 and 2 formed the basis for the elaboration of the CRM Substitution Roadmaps (WP5), which explain possible substitution strategies for CRMs in:
Printed Circuit Boards and electronic components Permanent-magnet based applications such as Electric Motors and Drives Batteries and Accumulators High-value Alloys Photonics (also referred to as “high-end optics” in other CRM deliverables)
The CRM_InnoNet roadmaps consider four substitution strategies, which make it possible to reduce Europe’s demand for scarce materials or to use these materials more efficiently during a product’s lifetime5:
“Substance for substance” can be considered “pure” material substitution, for example nanodots replacing rare earths-based phosphors in lasers
“Process for process” means a major change to the way a product is fabricated, which is one of the most attractive options in metal processing (example: advanced metallurgical synthesis processes to replace CRM containing alloys)
“Service for product” refers to business models which help to extend the useful life of a product and the intensity of use, for example through leasing or sharing arrangements, and which can also help to increase recycling rates
“New technologies for substance” refers to innovative products, for example OLED, which could gradually substitute others, which require a higher CRM content (LED).
The roadmapping methodology used by CRM_InnoNet is based on the theoretical framework of “Transition Theory”6. Transition theory distinguishes between the “socio-technical regime”, which aligns the activities of major social groups to a predominant mainstream, the “niches” at the micro-level where radical novelties emerge, and the “landscape”, referring to the exogenous developments beyond direct impact of regime and niche actors. Figure 1 shows illustrative examples for the three levels of transition theory from the perspective of the socio-technical raw material regime.
Figure 1: The three levels of transition theory illustrated for the socio-
technical raw material regime
Based on this analytical framework, specific expertise was drawn into the process to discuss the future visions of technologies and innovation strategies aiming to substitute critical raw materials. For this purpose, CRM_InnoNet engaged a wide range of experts and collected feedback on expected future developments for each of the priority applications via an online survey, a set of “Vision Workshops” and further expert interviews. The contributions received formed the basis for the elaboration of the actual roadmaps by the CRM_InnoNet team. The work process is shown in Figure 2.
Landscape developments: climate change, mul.polar world, global economic compe..on, etc.
Raw material regime: material-‐intense lifestyles, policy priority on primary raw materials, market oligopoly of large mining companies, etc.
Niches: post consump.on lifestyle experiments, local closed-‐loop economies, R&D on CRM-‐free materials, etc.
Figure 2: Process for CRM_InnoNet Roadmap Elaboration
The horizon for the roadmap exercise was established at the outset of the project at 2030, since in this period presently emerging technologies can be taken to commercial maturity. Obviously, historical material development timelines in the different markets need to be taken into account. Yet, opportunities for accelerating material innovation are arising, thanks to new design and modelling techniques. Accelerating innovation in the materials field and shortening the time to market for new materials is a key element for substitution, according to industry sources and experts from academy participating in the CRM_InnoNet roadmapping exercise.
By establishing the cause-effect relation and a logical sequence of actions, a strategic vision arises from the roadmapping process, which can guide policy-making in the field of material substitution. The roadmaps also permit to identify priorities for policy and research actions, which forms the focus for the final work package of CRM_InnoNet and will conclude the project (WP8 Vision and Policy Recommendations).
Interpretation of the Roadmap Table
This document should be read together with the draft roadmap table provided for download. Based on cross-sectoral challenges identified in the expert discussion, this table has been drawn up to provide answers that will help to develop a European strategy for CRM substitution, focussing on:
1. The expected development of drivers for technologies, which could increase the overall demand for CRMs by 2030 unless action is taken.
2. Developments driven by industry, which act in favour of market-uptake of new CRM-free solutions or solutions requiring a lower CRM-content from here to 2030.
3. Trends in regulation that could influence the expected demand for CRM-containing technologies and / or CRM-free alternatives in the coming years.
4. Research initiatives, which may provide new solutions over the next 15 years, although they are not yet clearly backed by industry.
The roadmap table identifies potential substitution technologies that may exist at different time-horizons. These are not intended to be “objectives” to be reached, but aim at identifying potential substitute technologies that may exist at different timeframes, based on market dynamics and research trends, and may provide an alternative to a potential CRM issue.
The time-scale of the different technologies attempts to capture the maturity of their respective development. Given the multiplicity of potential alternative technologies, no assumption is made whether a given technology has more chance for a “break-through” than another one. Difference may however arise with respect to specific markets, in link with the present perception of the strength/weaknesses of each technology.
Obviously, the vision of market technologies at the horizon 2030 is highly uncertain, and should be considered as such.
Short Summary of the Substitution Roadmap: High-value
Alloys The scope of the roadmap is limited to alloys that contain elements that are on the list of critical raw materials or that need materials from this list to be produced. The prioritized areas are the steel industry (because of the large amounts of materials processed), cutting tools and materials for aerospace turbines; the latter two due to the important role of CRMs in these high performance materials. The time horizon for the roadmap, 2030, is quite narrow, as the development of new, substitute materials and its acceptance in a rather conservative market, such as the aerospace industry, usually takes longer (about 20 years).
In the case of material demand by the automotive industry, a greater use of high-strength steels can be expected, but also of other lightweight materials, such as aluminium or carbon fibres. The use of higher-strength steel in the automotive industry faces certain challenges related to downstream processing of the advanced high strength steels, such as forming of the body, welding and coating.
The expert groups identified numerous research initiatives aiming at the substitution of CRMs in high-value alloys and other hard metals (mainly Tungsten, Cobalt, Molybdenum, Magnesium and heavy rare earth elements, but Nickel was also mentioned). Several of the mentioned initiatives aim at accelerating material innovation. Several examples and initiatives in this field were cited, i.e. multi-scale material design, GRANTA material database, Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), Accelerated Metallurgy (High-throughput materials science), which could eventually give a decisive competitive advantage to European industry.
It is important to take the substitution of materials that are used during production but that are not included in the final product into account. An example from the past is the substitution of hexavalent chromium plating which is toxic. Its use has been restricted due to legislation.
It was also recommended that abandoned alloy designs should be revisited to evaluate their potential for substitution. A strong link was established between substitution, material design and changes to industrial metallurgical processes (castings, coatings and novel concepts, or change of microstructure instead of alloy, i.e. substitution strategy process for substance), as well as the use of alternative reductants to substitute coking coal. The following approaches were highlighted:
High quality castings to replace CRM containing alloys Coatings that reduce the product requirements to the bulk of a product thereby decreasing CRM
use Electrolytic production of titanium production avoiding Mg use Near net shape technologies/additive manufacturing projects Low cost solar silicon through metallurgical processes substituting the Siemens process Microstructural refinement to improve properties substituting alloy elements The use of natural gas as reductant for iron, silicon and manganese as substitute for coking coal
coupled with reduction of CO2 emissions
When it comes to cutting tools, it is difficult to find a substitute for WC-Co. The good wettability between WC and Co is the basis for the good performance. Substituting the binder without substituting the cutting tool or vice versa is therefore difficult. Cobalt is, at this moment, the most critical element for the industry. Some iron-based binders are under development. It should be noted that Cobalt is toxic. A change in
legislation will accelerate the pursuit for a Cobalt substitutes. The cermets that have been developed until now are too brittle to substitute today's cutting tools. In order to start using cermets today, a large change in the manufacturing industry is necessary and that is not anticipated. Without an extra-ordinary research effort it will take at least 20 years before proper substitute materials for each hard metal are ready for commercialisation.
When it comes to steels, alloying elements that are on the list of CRMs can be substituted by other alloying elements or by improved microstructural control. Chromium is necessary for stainless steels, but low-alloyed steels with improved corrosion resistant coatings (e.g. galvanization) can substitute stainless steels. Coking coal is on the list of CRMs because of the uncertainty of supply due to flooding of coalmines. Coking coal can partly be substituted by injection of coal during blast furnace operation. This is under development and will be used as much as needed. Moreover natural gas can also be injected during blast furnace operation. The use of natural gas reduces also the CO2 emissions from the industry but natural gas is, in Europe, much more expensive than coal. The production of iron with natural gas (Direct Reduced Iron) is not expected to increase so much that it will significantly influence the demand for coking coal. More research on substitutes for coking coal can be of benefit for the whole steel industry.
The aerospace industry has a risk aversive culture that makes changes slow and stepwise. The most critical elements for turbine parts are mostly the alloying additions to the Ni-alloys like: Rhenium, Tungsten, Tantalum, Hafnium and Niobium. Rhenium is a scarce material. There is an ongoing development towards the reduction in the use of Rhenium in turbine parts. By using coatings, some of which containing Yttrium oxide and platinum, one can decrease the requirements for the alloy, thereby decreasing the required amount of CRM. When coating is applied, maintenance and recycling are challenging. There is still a lot of development potential in conventional superalloys. At the same time there is research and development within intermetallic, ceramics and CMC. These new materials have shown promising performances, but only in lab-scale/pilot testing. The aerospace industry is a very conservative industry. Therefore it is not expected that these new materials will take the place of superalloys within commercial aviation any time soon. Recent developments in atomistic and other modelling, can accelerate substitution, although thorough testing is always a requirement in the aerospace industry.
REFERENCES 1 http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu
2 Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials (2010) Critical raw materials for the EU: European Commission
3 The report detailing the 14 critical raw material profiles is available via the project website at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/raw-material-profiles/
4 The report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the Energy Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-energy-sector/, the report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the ICT Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-ict-sector/, the report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the Transport Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-transport-sector/. A summary report can be found at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/critical-raw-materials-analysis-of-the-energy-ict-and-electronics-and-transport-sectors/
5 CRM_InnoNet recognises and promotes the complementarity of other approaches to reducing Europe’s demand for scarce materials and/or Europe’s dependence on imports of scarce materials, such as recycling, reuse, recovery etc.
6 Geels, F. W., Research Policy, 31, 1257-1274 (2002); Geels, F. W., Research Policy, 33, 897-920 (2004); Geels, F. W., Schot, J., Research Policy, 36, 399-417 (2007)
