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QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
Download Quarterly Monetary Policy Report October to December 2017
Download Press Briefing Speech - Governor Brian Wynter
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
February 20
March 27
May 16
June 27
2018
August 28
October 02
November 16
December 20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
Policy Ratereduced to
Effective: 21 February 2018
2.75%
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 3
Inflation for the next eight quarters within target range of 4.0 – 6.0 per cent
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 4
Headline InflationAnnual Point-to-Point (%)
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
4.4 4.64.4
4.6 4.74.9
5.2
4.8
Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Source: STATIN
5
Real GDP growth has been sluggishAnnual Growth Rate (%)
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 6
Source: STATIN
Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
• Eight (8) monetary policy decisions per year.
21 February 2018 QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING 8
2.75 -0.25
Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
• Comprehensive assessment of current and projected
economic conditions including outlook for inflation.
• End result of assessment: A monetary policy decision.
Jamaica's transition to a modern
competitive foreign exchange market
is in train…
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
Oct-Dec 2017
3.8%appreciation
10
Foreign exchange surrender requirements
reduced by:
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
Effective since: 07 February 2018
percentage points
11
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 12
• Selling US$40 million for the first
two weeks of March 2018.
21 February 2018 QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING 13
and resilience in Jamaica…
macroeconomic stability…to improve
QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018
Bank focused on maintaining low inflation …
Period of favourable oil shock faded over time and
ended about June 2016
14
GO TO REPORT October to December 2017 Quarter
Inflation
Annual inflation was 5.2 per cent at end-December 2017,
relative to the 4.6 per cent recorded at end-September 2017.
This acceleration reflected increases in most of the inflation
components, in particular agricultural prices, electricity costs, fuels
and transportation costs… READ MORE >.
Foreign Exchange Market
The weighted average selling rate (WASR) of the Jamaica
Dollar vis-á-vis the US dollar closed the December 2017
quarter at J$125.00 = US$1.00. This reflected appreciations of
3.8 per cent relative to the previous quarter and 2.7 per cent
relative to end-December 2016... READ MORE >.
International Economy
Global economic growth for the December 2017 quarter is
estimated to have remained unchanged relative to the
September 2017 quarter but was higher than projected. This
estimated growth was underpinned by stronger expansion in a
number of economies, including Canada and other commodity
exporting countries, the impact of which was offset by weaker
growth in the US, UK, Euro… READ MORE >.
Fiscal Developments
Central Government operations recorded a fiscal surplus of
0.4 per cent of GDP for the December 2017 quarter, relative
to the budgeted deficit of 0.3 per cent of GDP. The outturn
reflected lower than budgeted Expenditure while Revenue &
Grants… READ MORE >.
Jamaican Economy
The Jamaican economy is estimated to have grown, in real
terms, within the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent for the
December 2017 quarter, largely in line with the outturn recorded in
the corresponding quarter of 2016. The growth was also reflected in
improved labour market conditions... READ MORE >
Implications for Monetary Policy
The Bank forecasts that inflation will remain relatively stable
over the next four quarters, despite improved demand
conditions and the lagged effects of agriculture supply shocks.
For FY2018/19, inflation is projected to remain within the Bank’s
target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent... READ MORE >.
MORE INFORMATION
Special Features● Inflation Expectations Survey
● Global Economic Growth in Selected Economies
● Credit Conditions Survey
● Jamaica’s Recent Economic Performance under its IMF SBA-supported Programme
Economic Data and Publications● National Summary Data Page (NSDP)
● Advance Release Calendar
● Statistical Digest
● Jamaica in FiguresFor queries, email [email protected].
Copyright © Bank of Jamaica 2018. All rights reserved.