Detecting the Online Threat :

Using hyperlink analysis and web cartography

16th National Metropolis Conference

Benjamin Ducol

Ph.D candidate in Political Science (Université Laval) and Research Assistant Canada Research Chair on Conflicts and Terrorism

March 15th 2014

• What kind of contents and ideas are being circulated online and how they might influence radicalization ?

• How are they being circulated on the Web ?

• How do they relate to each other in the cyberspace ?

If the Web can be considered as ‘milieu’ for radicalization, then we need to explore :

Introduction

• Most of empirical studies are focusing on the contents of extremist websites / webpages ;

Ex : Kimmage 2008 ; Bowman-Grieve 2009 ; Brachman 2010 ; Mozes & Weimann 2010

• Few empirical studies are looking at the structural patterns of extremist presence online ;

Ex : Reid and Chen 2007 ; Chen, Chung, Qin, Reid, Sageman and Weimann 2008 ; Chen 2011 ; Klausen, Barbieri, Reichlin-Melnick, and Zelin 2012.

Very difficult to gauge precisely the extent of extremist presence online ;

Litterature and current knowledge

Digital Methods

Web Mapping and Web Cartography

Online controversiesEx: French HADOPI law

Virtual spaces Ex : Arabic

blogosphere

Webometrics studies (Almind et Ingwersen 1997) :

« a set of quantitative and qualitative techniques for tracking and evaluating the impact of web sites and online ideas » :

• Web mention analysis ;• Sentiment analysis ; • Link and hyperlink analysis ; • …

Digital Methods

« Hyperlinks are the glue of these online communities, forming digital footprints of the way individuals make connections. Through a simple selection to include, exclude or just follow a link in our daily online interactions, we passively telegraph the way we see the world, what is important to us, to what degree and why » (Schulman 2008: 147) ;

« Hyperlink is perhaps the most significant mechanism of online gatekeeping » (Napoli 2008 : 18).

Hyperlink analysis : Why ?

•It reveals information about popularity (centrality) on the Web ;

•It reveals information about pattern of linkage (connectivity) on the Web;

Digital Methods

3 methodological steps :

• Collecting hyperlinks or URLs (Navicrawler)

• URLs categorization (Navicrawler)

• Visualization – Graph/Mapping (Gephi)

Hyperlink analysis : How ?

Digital Methods

Collecting URLs and categorization

Digital Methods

Navicrawler

Collecting URLs and categorization

Digital Methods

Digital Methods

Vizualization

IntroductionFrench-speaking jihadisphere

• 4200 websites explored ;

• 69 websites included in the final corpus ;

• Centralized-network ;

• « Ansar al-Haqq » still the most important website of the French speaking jihadisphere ;

• Fluidity between jihadi and salafi-oriented websites.

French-speaking jihadisphere

• 2800 websites explored ;

• 30 websites included in the final corpus ;

• No structured-network

Voice(s) of the Caucasus emirate

• 4329 websites explored ;

• 173 websites included in the final corpus ;

Voice(s) of the Caucasus emirate

Discussion

Promises :

• Overall better understanding of the extremist presence online ;

• Clarifying the patterns of cross-linkage between extremist websites (ideological proximity) ;

• Evaluation of the centrality of webpages compared to others (e-reputation) ;

Discussion

Limits :

• Not audience-centric method => need to be complemented with more audience measurement;

• Only gives you the picture of « what’s going on online », but doesn't necessarily echo the real world

• Growing substitution of social network pages instead of static websites.