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DEPARTMENT OFCSIRO PRIMARY INDUSTRIESATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH Options for Victorian Agriculture in a New Climate -a pilot study linking climate change scenario modelling and land suitability modelling Bob Cechet, Adam Hood & Hemayet Hussain Slide 2 Atmospheric Research Background Victorian Greenhouse Strategy Understand climate change impacts and develop adaptation options with sectors/community Funding - Ecological Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (DPI) - Greenhouse Policy Unit (DSE) Slide 3 Atmospheric Research Land Suitability Framework Developed by United Nations F.A.O. Assesses suitability of land for specific use Assessment undertaken using spatial datasets for various elements based on a function of the interaction between them and/or through a multi-criteria analysis method Slide 4 Atmospheric Research Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) Developed using ArcView Model Builder Uses discrete spatial datasets of soil, landscape and climate (within G.I.S. environment) Based on expert systems approach Easy to scale to regional/strategic levels Highly flexible (dependent on question being asked) Simple to manipulate/interrogate Slide 5 Atmospheric Research Project Design Slide 6 Atmospheric Research What is OzClim Based on NZ CLIMPACTS Climate scenario generator Explore ranges of climate change Link climate change with impact models PC based, GUI interface Easy to operate, quick to produce results www.dar.csiro.au/publications/ozclim.htm Slide 7 Atmospheric Research Finding the global warming (I.P.C.C.) Choose low emission scenario IS92c Choose low climate sensitivity Global Warming Concentrations (eg.CO 2 ) Emissions (eg.CO 2 ) 0.7 o C Year 19802010204020702100 Global warming ( o C) 0 1 2 3 4 o Year 19802010204020702100 Global warming ( o C) 0 1 2 3 4 o Slide 8 Atmospheric Research Projected global average warming: 1.4C to 5.8C by 2100 (I.P.C.C. T.A.R., 2001) Slide 9 Atmospheric Research Creating regional patterns of change YEAR Global Temperature ( o C) Point Temperature ( o C) / O C of GW Slide 10 Atmospheric Research Base Climatology Result 2060 Global Warming X GW 2060 [1 o C 3 o C] Regional pattern from GCM Future mean regional temperatures + = Slide 11 Atmospheric Research Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) Incorporates Multiple Criteria Evaluation [MCE] (within G.I.S. environment) MCE improves spatial decision making when considering multiple objectives and conflicting preferences Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a MCE method that orders critical factors into a hierarchy of importance Slide 12 Atmospheric Research Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Construction of hierarchies; establishing priorities; ensuring logical consistency Improves representativeness as all factors do not have equal weighting of importance Allows criteria to trade-off with each other depending on importance weights Slide 13 Atmospheric Research Analytical Hierarchy Process, showing the model used for high yield pasture: (criteria weighting) Slide 14 Slide 15 Slide 16 Slide 17 Atmospheric Research Assessment of Impacts (Summary of Outputs) Series of specialist workshops developing awareness & building suitable commodity mode Mapped commodity scenarios 2000, 2020 and 2050 Gippsland cool climate grapes high yield pasture blue gum plantations for years Mallee (wheat)* Goulburn/Broken region (stone & pomme fruits)* Economic and Social Implications* Industry and Regional Adaptation Options* Recommendations for further work on toolkit* *Work currently being undertaken Slide 18 Graffiti on a billboard in Smith Street, Fitzroy. Slide 19 Slide 20 Slide 21 Slide 22 Slide 23 Atmospheric Research Slide 24 Slide 25 Slide 26 Slide 27 More 8 GCM datasets, 2 regional models 6 climatic variables Export options Regions covered and higher resolution Links to impact models Slide 28 Atmospheric Research Methodological Approach to Land Suitability Analysis