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REDD-ALERT: Linking global climate arrangements to local land-use behaviour
Robin Matthews
James Hutton Institute
Aberdeen AB15 8QH
UNFCCC COP-18, Doha, Qatar, 29 Nov 2012
Issue-attention cycle theory of Downs
1. Pre-problem phase, the problem exists but is not the subject of public discussion2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm: The public is alarmed and constructively aims to deal with the problem thinking that this is
possible ‘without any fundamental reordering of society itself’ (Copenhagen)3. Social actors become aware of the costs of dealing with the problem (currently)4. Public attention declines as the problem is seen as too complex or expensive to address, or requiring major structural overhaul of societies5. Post problem - twilight realm of lesser attention or spasmodic recurrences of interest
(Downs, 1972)
Is the window of opportunity closing?
Forest-related emissions declining as % of total emissions : 20% 17% 10% due to increase in fossil fuel emissions
Cap-and-trade system in developed countries slow – no demand for credits
Hostage to vagaries of international finance and variations in commodity prices (food)
Supply of credits from big players (e.g. Brazil) may swamp the market
Realisation of costs
Transaction costs high – 80-90% of total?
Use of ODA funds at expense of other devt objectives – also declining due to recession – payments moving from definite to conditional
Seen as unfair – license for northern countries to continue to emit
Too complicated
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
World Bank Independent Evaluation Group (IEG):
“REDD+ is a more expensive, complex, and protracted undertaking than was anticipated at the time of the FCPF’s launch”
Drivers of the Forest Transition curve
(Gupta et al., 2012)
Around 80% of deforestation from clearing for agriculture
Food demand
Global demand by 2050:
Calories: +100%
Protein: +110%
(Tilman et al., 2011, PNAS)
Competition between global land uses
Some countries have increased forest area and food production – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Bhutan, Vietnam
agricultural intensification land use zoning forest protection creation of off-farm jobs foreign capital investments remittances
But - 39% of regrowth of Vietnam’s forests through increasing food & wood imports
Factors influencing global land use change: Displacement and cascade effects Rebound effect Remittance effect
Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011), PNAS 108:3465
Drivers and REDD+ instrumentsRegulatory instruments
Trade restrictions Protected areas Reporting Land rights
Economic and market instruments Trade liberalisation Funds, grants & loans Forest C offsetting Forest certification
Suasive instruments Concepts & principles Targets Information and education Research
Economy-wide modelling
Complex relationship between the 3Es (effectiveness, efficiency, equity) not evident in more aggregate analyses
Landowners benefit but local subsistence demands would raise their opportunity costs
Rent and wage changes create net costs for most private stakeholders
REDD+ mechanisms should avoid general formulas by giving local authorities the necessary flexibility to address the trade-offs involved
Dyer et al, 2012. PLoS (in press)
Encouraging behaviour changevan Vugt’s 4Is framework
Incentives (self-improvement)
Information (understanding)
Identity (belonging, pride, shame)
Institutions (trust)
Altruism index: A = c + w*(t-c) + e*(1 – (c + w*(t-c)))
c = communication
e = equity
w = welfare
t = threat from environmental damage
Systems thinking
Should REDD fund agricultural research and reduction in food chain waste?: 34% more GHGs since 1961 if Green Revolution had not occurred - cost around only $4/tCO2e (Burney et al, 2010)
Matthews & De Pinto, 2012. Carb. Mgt 3:117-120
Agriculture (arable,
grasslands)
WetlandsForests
Communities
Socio-ecological systems:
Livelihoods, recreation, health
Fluxes of carbon, water, nutrients, energy, labour & capital
Organisation, governance, conflict resolution
Resilience to change
Agricultural intensification
Borlaug hypothesis: agricultural intensification relieves pressure on forests
Closed system – increased productivity decreases prices, no clearing
Open system – increased income incentivises further clearing
In/out-migration
Guinea rain forest - if fertiliser/ shade tree intensification of cocoa adopted in 1960s
21,000 km2 less deforestation 1.4 billion tCO2 saved
Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011); Gockowski & Sonwa (2011)
Pucallpa, Peru
What has REDD+ achieved so far?
Better understanding of the drivers of deforestation
Progress in methodologies
Baselines
Monitoring, reporting, verification
Emissions from tropical peatlands
Realisation that deforestation is a landscape problem – need to deal with underlying drivers – NAMAs
It’s not all economics – range of solutions needed
Has created awareness of importance of forests – concept of the ‘global forest’
A global forest transition?Supply - shift production to more productive lands
Expanding the area of natural forests managed sustainably
Supporting natural regeneration through land zoning, forest extraction regulations, and plantations on degraded land
Increasing production and productivity from tree plantations
Promoting agroforestry in areas unsuitable for large-scale intensive farming
Sparing land for forests through agricultural intensification combined with land zoning in high-potential agricultural areas
Demand
Create a demand for carbon credits in cap-and-trade systems
Ecoconsumerism
Corporate environmentalism