Dave Boy's Tips Flemington 5.7.13

7/28/2019 Dave Boy's Tips Flemington 5.7.13

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Dave Boys Tips

Flemington - Form Analysis

6 July 2007

Race 1

The top 3 are the obvious here. Lady Lakshmi outstanding type and all class but could be a

slight query at the distance and might have had enough this preparation, but 3 wins from last

3 runs is compelling. Resistant is a fighter and was only a length off Lady Lakshmi last run

and meets her better at the weights. I think they should quinella the race. The Bowler is a

good horse and interesting that Newitt takes the ride rather than riding for the Price stable.

They confirmed on radio this morning that Newitt had the choice but had already committed

to The Bowler, after riding Resistant in work on Tuesday Newitt is quoted as saying he had

made the wrong choice.

Others of interest are the Hayes runners and Mick Kents horsebut I dont think they have it

on the top three

Quinella 1 and 2, Each Way bet Resistant

Race 2

All horses are up in Class other than Avas Delight so she is the obvious but is at poison

odds. Lonhruge is a lovely type and coming off a strong win albeit in weaker class.

Danestroem probably next best but Perfect Offering meets her slight better at the weights

and Divine Donona only 0.3 lenghths off Danestroem last run. Think they will all be running

for place money.

No suggested bet as Avas Delight looks the winner. A hunch bet could be Lonhruge at the

odds, currently 14.00 and 3.60 for the place.

Race 3

Upbeat was good last run but his last win was in Feb 2012. The top two selections are St

Mark and Rock Princess and the market agrees. St Mark excellent last start, stable in form

and I think it will be well suited to Flemington. Rock Princess was poorly ridden last start but

is back to 0-89 off a good placing in an open handicap. Stable is canny, she is poorly drawn

but has some talent.

Not overly keen on the race but work around Rock Princess and St Mark

Race 4

If Ava Delights romps in Race 2 Hunger will shorten and the 9/1 on offer is excellent value.

Hunger is a big horse and will be well suited at Flemington.

The big query is Space but on the basis of her last run I am willing to risk, she is only a

Geelong Maiden Winner but this stable wouldnt run in Saturday class unless they thought

he had some talent, however he is up against more experienced horses here.


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A possible form line could be through Kings Palace and Edgewood off a 0-72 Echuca, not

sure that will convert to Flemington Saturday form but this is not a strong race and they do

have form in the city. Edgewood meets Kinds Palace slightly better at the weights but not

much between them.

Brings me back to Hunger and the Avas Delight form line, which if you like you cannot ruleout Quick Snizel, but query why Meech rides instead of Nolen, who is on the less well

credentialed Heart Reef. Other option is to consider Bishops Castle depending on how the

track is running, Gauci is on board which probably means that they will push forward and try

and sneak it.

Interesting race but sticking with Hungereach way, he is a fighter and even with the big

weight think he will be in the money.

Race 5

All the money has been for Riziz and Adelaide horses coming to Flemington tend to go well.Has been to Flemington once before and won. Dee Bee Nine comes off a good win but not

convinced about that race, Overake came second and was poor next run, also not convinced

about Jackie Berriman in the city so willing to risk.

Perturbo owes me lots of money but I think on his day would win this. A rising 8 year old but

think he still might have a win in him and today could be the day. Down in weight, excellent

stats at course and distance, was very good in the G1 Goodwood (less than 2 lengths off

Platelet). If you can forgive his last run surely must give this a shake.

Not that keen on many of the others but have a soft spot for Belfast Boy and Nicholls Court.

Belfast Boy has not lost at Course and Distance but has been in horrible form (still probablyworth a small wager) and Nicholls Court has talent and will improve second up.

Riziz is worthy favourite but is far too short, Perturbo to get some of my money one last time

Race 6

More competitive than I first though given how impressive The Cleaner was last start. My gut

tells me he is still the horse to beat but is giving weight to the others, that said he is the class

horse. Another Prelate is due a win and was unlucky last start but three seconds at

Flemington tell a story but the extra distance suits and surely must be in the finish. Blackie

may have turned the corner but I think it could have peaked and willing to risk for the win.Glanuese is unbeaten track and distance but is in poor form, but a nice weight drop here so

could improve. Lots of the others have claims, Dayita for Moody was good last start,

Clangas Glory needs to be included if you like The Cleaner and is better at the weights. But

the stand out each way bet is Under the Hat, improving each run and has been a bit

unlucky, ideal now he is at the mile, well drawn and will be in the money.

Race 7

Not that keen on the race and no standouts. Turner Bayou is up class but is suited to

Flemington and is fit. The negatives are the improving conditions. Cooldini is the obvious

but was good without being outstanding last run. Final Folly meets him better at the weights


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so could overturn that. De Fine Lago backs up and the Vasil stable is in form. Sahara Sun

better suited with the extra distance.

Probably a no bet race for me but have always had a soft spot forVatuveiwho hasnt lived

up to expectations but has competed at a higher level. Willing to dismiss Jumpin Jack Cash

and Richoman off Adelaide form that probably doesnt stack up here.

Race 8

An average race for average horses. Spot on Maggie due a win and much better at the

weights with Koe, but Koe is the form horse. Danish Whiskey has won at Flemington so

could improve but not convinced. Belaruski has some claims.

Two to consider at each way odds, Bia Diamond, its unwise not to include a Weir horse in

the last leg of the Quaddie and forget its last run, excellent third up form and could be worth

a small wagerif its right. The other one of interest is Rustana, good last start, senior jockey

on, poor win percentage but could surprise.

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Dave Boy's Tips Flemington 5.7.13