Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment DWD Offenbach 18.09.2019 Markus ... Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment DWD Offenbach

Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment

DWD Offenbach 18.09.2019

Markus Rex, Klaus Dethloff, Matthew Shupe, Anja Sommerfeld,

Uwe Nixdorf, Vladimir Sokolov, Alexander Makarov

& the MOSAiC Team

International Arctic research expedition

• First time a research icebreaker

close to the north pole for a full

year, including winter season

• 5 icebreakers (Polarstern, Fedorov,

Makarov, Oden, Xue Long)

• Polar 5 + other research aircraft

 support by helicopters

 support by aircraft Antonov 74

• More than 60 institutions

• 16 nations & 600 people will work in

the central Arctic

• 120 Mio € budget ; 1 Day per

person 3000 €

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory

for the Study of Arctic Climate

www.mosaic-expedition.org

Annual list of 10 most

important developments

in science expected in

each year:

2019

MOSAiC on first place

One in a lifetime chance

Golden opportunity

Outline

MOSAiC Motivation

Earlier attempts

Logistics

Coupled system

Atmosphere

Ocean-Sea Ice

Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

G eo

gr ap

h ic

L at

it u

d e

Year

Arctic Amplification

Arctic

Equator

Antarctica

Reference period: 1951-1980, data provided by NASA Updated from Wendisch et al., 2017, EOS

Near-Surface Winter (DJF) Temperature-Anomaly ΔTs (K)

Arctic Amplification

: 2 K warmer

AWIPEV

research station

Winter warming is most severe in the

Atlantic sector of the Arctic

Maturilli et al., 2017

Temperature change

in o C per decade

2m air temperature based

on data from the ECMWF

1996-2017 (ERA-interim)

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Arctic Sea Ice Retreat from satellite data

40 % Loss

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/

Interplay of local, regional & global scales for Arctic Amplification

How are individual Arctic feedbacks

 Atmospheric vertical stability

 Surface heat fluxes

 Low cloud response

 Horizontal heat transports

 Ocean heat uptake processes

 Planetary waves & tropo-stratospheric coupling

quantitatively linked to hemispheric changes in

 Teleconnection patterns

 Weather regimes & extremes

 Storm paths?

Dethloff et al., NYAS, 2019

Late autumn (ON) Late winter (FM)Early winter (DJ)

How does an improved representation of Arctic climate processes in global

climate and NWP models impact simulated Arctic-mid-latitude linkages?

Science: The pathways for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages

Outline

MOSAiC Motivation

Earlier attempts

Logistics

Coupled system

Atmosphere

Ocean-Sea Ice

Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

Previous experiences within the Arctic ice

 Russian NP drifting stations since 1937

 SHEBA 1987-88

 DAMOCLES, TARA, ACSYS,

PANARCMiP, PASCAL 2017,

 N-ICE with Lance 2015

 Shorter-term campaigns

 Many disciplinary obs.

 Some inter-disciplinary obs.

Each of these has key limitations:

 Length of time

 Comprehensiveness

 Spatial resolution

 Not in the “new” Arctic

Russian drifting station

SHEBA

Earlier attempts

NP35

Drift-Station NP 35  Sept. 2007- April 2008

as part of the International Polar Year 2007-2008

Record minimum (Sep. 2007)

Arctic sea ice cover

NP 35 Route

Jürgen Graeser on russian drift station NP 35,

(September 2007- April 2008)

Measurements are needed for improved model description and reduction of model biases:

1. Energy balance at the surface 2. Structure of Arctic PBL 3. Temperature and humidity inversions 4. Aerosols and clouds 5. Sea ice  Integrator for atmos. und ocean. changes

6. Stratospheric ozone

Need for Improved Models Weather, Climate, Sea-ice, Biogeochemistry & Ecosystems

 Lack of data in the Arctic atmosphere over the ocean

 Major deficiencies in Arctic process understanding

 Clouds, boundary layer turbulence, winds, surface fluxes …

 Need to focus on “processes, feedbacks and coupling”

Require physical representation of the changing new Arctic

SHEBA 1997-1998 in the old Arctic:

Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean

SHEBA trajectory  Beaufort Sea

Validation and improvement of RCMs:

NP 35 Sept. 2007-July 2008 IPY

ARCMIP

Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison

RCM biases 10-25 W/m2 against SHEBA radiative

fluxes especially under clouds.

Implications for sea-ice concentrations.

Bias of 10 W/m2 equivalent to energy of melting

about 1 m of ice.

Outline

MOSAiC Motivation

Earlier attempts

Logistics

Coupled system

Atmosphere

Ocean-Sea Ice

Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

Drift September 2020September 2019

MOSAiC Drift: Start September 20 from Tromsö

Polarstern and Akademik Fedorov, Ice floe search

Drift September 2020September 2019

Fuel depots for emergency operations

Fuel depots (200 tons)

for emergency helicopter

operations on Severnaya

Zemlya (August 2019)

AK Treshnikov

Helicopter base

Longyearbyen

Expedition timeline

Start: 20 September 2019 Tromsoe End: 14 October2020

Mid December Kapitan Dranitzyn

Mid June – mid July 2 x Oden

Mid August Xuelong or Xuelong II

Mid February Kapitan Dranitzyn

Mid April Antonov AN-74

Ice runway 3x AN-74

Until mid Oct Akademik

Fedorov

2

MOSAiC International expedition and example for cooperation in the Arctic

• 20 Sep 20:00 CET: Polarstern departs Tromso 21:00 CET: Akademik Fedorov departs Tromso

Ships travel together ~14kn (in open water)

• 1 Oct: At target area ~120-130 E, ~85 N. Start searching floe • 6 Oct: At floe, transfer of equipment and personel between

Polarstern and Fedorov • 7-12 Oct: Fedorov sets up Distributed Network of buoys, • Polarstern starts to set up central observatory • 13-15 Oct: Transfer of fuel Fedorov-Polarstern • 16-30 Oct: Fedorov goes back to Tromso • latest 20 Oct: Start of standard observations at central obs.

Timeline first phase all dates will change based on ice conditions

• Perfect floe

• 2nd year floe in

marginal ice zone

• Match with drift

forecasts

• Origin from

Laptev Sea

• Selection process

• On Polarstern:

Science board

Sea ice conditions & Distributed buoys network

PS Polarstern

S Super Buoys of

Distributed Network

9. September 2019

AARI identified 5 ice floes of ca 5 km diameter

Sea ice observatory with runway

Met, Ocean, ECO, BGC,

ICE sites - close to RV

Polarstern, depends on

snow and ice conditions

Runway specification:

• UTAir (length-width-thick):

1400 m / 35 m / 1 m

(reduced payload)

• KBAL (length-width-thick):

1200 m / 28 m / 1 m

• Distance from ship

at least 1 – 2 km

© Marcel Nicolaus, AWI

Daily schedule

Weather forecast by DWD

Peter Gege PASCAL June 2017

German Meteorological Service – Marine Met Office MOSAiC Workshop, Potsdam 2019

Weather forecast by DWD Product examples

Flight weather report Maritime weather report

Outline

MOSAiC Motivation

Earlier attempts

Logistics

Coupled system

Atmosphere

Ocean-Sea Ice

Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

Sea Ice and Snow Melt

Oceanic Mixed Layer Warms

Atmos. Energy Fluxes Increase

Terrestrial Radiation Increases

Lapse Rate Changes, More Water Vapour

and Clouds

Meridional Transports (Atmosphere/Ocean/Sea Ice)

Near-Surface Air-Temperature

Increases

Global Warming

Surface Albedo Decreases, Solar Absorption Increases

Trace Gases and Aerosols Change

Examples of Processes and Feedback Mechanisms

Change in Oceanic Biogeochemistry and Energy Exchange with Ocean Interior

Observations of the 5

climate relevant subsystems

Improving the

understanding of coupled

atmosphere-ice-ocean-bio-

geochemistry-ecosystem

processes in the Central

Arctic

Improve sea ice forecasting,

regional weather forecasting

and climate projection