Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment DWD Offenbach 18.09.2019 Markus ... Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment DWD Offenbach

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  • Das MOSAiC Driftexperiment

    DWD Offenbach 18.09.2019

    Markus Rex, Klaus Dethloff, Matthew Shupe, Anja Sommerfeld,

    Uwe Nixdorf, Vladimir Sokolov, Alexander Makarov

    & the MOSAiC Team

  • International Arctic research expedition

    • First time a research icebreaker

    close to the north pole for a full

    year, including winter season

    • 5 icebreakers (Polarstern, Fedorov,

    Makarov, Oden, Xue Long)

    • Polar 5 + other research aircraft

     support by helicopters

     support by aircraft Antonov 74

    • More than 60 institutions

    • 16 nations & 600 people will work in

    the central Arctic

    • 120 Mio € budget ; 1 Day per

    person 3000 €

    Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory

    for the Study of Arctic Climate

    www.mosaic-expedition.org

  • Annual list of 10 most

    important developments

    in science expected in

    each year:

    2019

    MOSAiC on first place

    One in a lifetime chance

    Golden opportunity

  • Outline

    MOSAiC Motivation

    Earlier attempts

    Logistics

    Coupled system

    Atmosphere

    Ocean-Sea Ice

    Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

  • G eo

    gr ap

    h ic

    L at

    it u

    d e

    Year

    Arctic Amplification

    Arctic

    Equator

    Antarctica

    Reference period: 1951-1980, data provided by NASA Updated from Wendisch et al., 2017, EOS

    Near-Surface Winter (DJF) Temperature-Anomaly ΔTs (K)

    Arctic Amplification

    : 2 K warmer

  • AWIPEV

    research station

    Winter warming is most severe in the

    Atlantic sector of the Arctic

    Maturilli et al., 2017

    Temperature change

    in o C per decade

    2m air temperature based

    on data from the ECMWF

    1996-2017 (ERA-interim)

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0

    -1

    -2

    -3

  • Arctic Sea Ice Retreat from satellite data

    40 % Loss

    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de

    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/

  • Interplay of local, regional & global scales for Arctic Amplification

    How are individual Arctic feedbacks

     Atmospheric vertical stability

     Surface heat fluxes

     Low cloud response

     Horizontal heat transports

     Ocean heat uptake processes

     Planetary waves & tropo-stratospheric coupling

    quantitatively linked to hemispheric changes in

     Teleconnection patterns

     Weather regimes & extremes

     Storm paths?

  • Dethloff et al., NYAS, 2019

    Late autumn (ON) Late winter (FM)Early winter (DJ)

    How does an improved representation of Arctic climate processes in global

    climate and NWP models impact simulated Arctic-mid-latitude linkages?

    Science: The pathways for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages

  • Outline

    MOSAiC Motivation

    Earlier attempts

    Logistics

    Coupled system

    Atmosphere

    Ocean-Sea Ice

    Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

  • Previous experiences within the Arctic ice

     Russian NP drifting stations since 1937

     SHEBA 1987-88

     DAMOCLES, TARA, ACSYS,

    PANARCMiP, PASCAL 2017,

     N-ICE with Lance 2015

     Shorter-term campaigns

     Many disciplinary obs.

     Some inter-disciplinary obs.

    Each of these has key limitations:

     Length of time

     Comprehensiveness

     Spatial resolution

     Not in the “new” Arctic

    Russian drifting station

    SHEBA

    Earlier attempts

    NP35

  • Drift-Station NP 35  Sept. 2007- April 2008

    as part of the International Polar Year 2007-2008

    Record minimum (Sep. 2007)

    Arctic sea ice cover

    NP 35 Route

  • Jürgen Graeser on russian drift station NP 35,

    (September 2007- April 2008)

    Measurements are needed for improved model description and reduction of model biases:

    1. Energy balance at the surface 2. Structure of Arctic PBL 3. Temperature and humidity inversions 4. Aerosols and clouds 5. Sea ice  Integrator for atmos. und ocean. changes

    6. Stratospheric ozone

  • Need for Improved Models Weather, Climate, Sea-ice, Biogeochemistry & Ecosystems

     Lack of data in the Arctic atmosphere over the ocean

     Major deficiencies in Arctic process understanding

     Clouds, boundary layer turbulence, winds, surface fluxes …

     Need to focus on “processes, feedbacks and coupling”

    Require physical representation of the changing new Arctic

    SHEBA 1997-1998 in the old Arctic:

    Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean

    SHEBA trajectory  Beaufort Sea

    Validation and improvement of RCMs:

    NP 35 Sept. 2007-July 2008 IPY

    ARCMIP

    Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison

    RCM biases 10-25 W/m2 against SHEBA radiative

    fluxes especially under clouds.

    Implications for sea-ice concentrations.

    Bias of 10 W/m2 equivalent to energy of melting

    about 1 m of ice.

  • Outline

    MOSAiC Motivation

    Earlier attempts

    Logistics

    Coupled system

    Atmosphere

    Ocean-Sea Ice

    Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

  • Drift September 2020September 2019

    MOSAiC Drift: Start September 20 from Tromsö

    Polarstern and Akademik Fedorov, Ice floe search

  • Drift September 2020September 2019

    Fuel depots for emergency operations

    Fuel depots (200 tons)

    for emergency helicopter

    operations on Severnaya

    Zemlya (August 2019)

    AK Treshnikov

    Helicopter base

    Longyearbyen

  • Expedition timeline

    Start: 20 September 2019 Tromsoe End: 14 October2020

    Mid December Kapitan Dranitzyn

    Mid June – mid July 2 x Oden

    Mid August Xuelong or Xuelong II

    Mid February Kapitan Dranitzyn

    Mid April Antonov AN-74

    Ice runway 3x AN-74

    Until mid Oct Akademik

    Fedorov

    2

  • MOSAiC International expedition and example for cooperation in the Arctic

  • • 20 Sep 20:00 CET: Polarstern departs Tromso 21:00 CET: Akademik Fedorov departs Tromso

    Ships travel together ~14kn (in open water)

    • 1 Oct: At target area ~120-130 E, ~85 N. Start searching floe • 6 Oct: At floe, transfer of equipment and personel between

    Polarstern and Fedorov • 7-12 Oct: Fedorov sets up Distributed Network of buoys, • Polarstern starts to set up central observatory • 13-15 Oct: Transfer of fuel Fedorov-Polarstern • 16-30 Oct: Fedorov goes back to Tromso • latest 20 Oct: Start of standard observations at central obs.

    Timeline first phase all dates will change based on ice conditions

  • • Perfect floe

    • 2nd year floe in

    marginal ice zone

    • Match with drift

    forecasts

    • Origin from

    Laptev Sea

    • Selection process

    • On Polarstern:

    Science board

    Sea ice conditions & Distributed buoys network

    PS Polarstern

    S Super Buoys of

    Distributed Network

    9. September 2019

    AARI identified 5 ice floes of ca 5 km diameter

  • Sea ice observatory with runway

    Met, Ocean, ECO, BGC,

    ICE sites - close to RV

    Polarstern, depends on

    snow and ice conditions

    Runway specification:

    • UTAir (length-width-thick):

    1400 m / 35 m / 1 m

    (reduced payload)

    • KBAL (length-width-thick):

    1200 m / 28 m / 1 m

    • Distance from ship

    at least 1 – 2 km

    © Marcel Nicolaus, AWI

  • Daily schedule

    Weather forecast by DWD

    Peter Gege PASCAL June 2017

  • German Meteorological Service – Marine Met Office MOSAiC Workshop, Potsdam 2019

    Weather forecast by DWD Product examples

    Flight weather report Maritime weather report

  • Outline

    MOSAiC Motivation

    Earlier attempts

    Logistics

    Coupled system

    Atmosphere

    Ocean-Sea Ice

    Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem

  • Sea Ice and Snow Melt

    Oceanic Mixed Layer Warms

    Atmos. Energy Fluxes Increase

    Terrestrial Radiation Increases

    Lapse Rate Changes, More Water Vapour

    and Clouds

    Meridional Transports (Atmosphere/Ocean/Sea Ice)

    Near-Surface Air-Temperature

    Increases

    Global Warming

    Surface Albedo Decreases, Solar Absorption Increases

    Trace Gases and Aerosols Change

    Examples of Processes and Feedback Mechanisms

    Change in Oceanic Biogeochemistry and Energy Exchange with Ocean Interior

  • Observations of the 5

    climate relevant subsystems

    Improving the

    understanding of coupled

    atmosphere-ice-ocean-bio-

    geochemistry-ecosystem

    processes in the Central

    Arctic

    Improve sea ice forecasting,

    regional weather forecasting

    and climate projection