Damage and Losses inDamage and Losses in Industry and Commerce Sectors Industry and Commerce Sectors

2008 Cyclone Season in Madagascar2008 Cyclone Season in Madagascar

J. Roberto JovelJ. Roberto Jovel

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ContentsContents

1.1. The Assessment of 2008 Cyclone Season in The Assessment of 2008 Cyclone Season in MadagascarMadagascar

2.2. Damage and Losses in Industry and Commerce Damage and Losses in Industry and Commerce SectorsSectors

3.3. Scope of ExerciseScope of Exercise

Assessment of Damage and LossesAssessment of Damage and Lossesof 2008 Cyclone Season in of 2008 Cyclone Season in

MadagascarMadagascar

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Location MapLocation Map

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Madagascar:Madagascar:Total Damage and LossesTotal Damage and Losses

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Most Affected RegionsMost Affected Regions

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Damage and Losses Per CapitaDamage and Losses Per Capita

Assessment of theAssessment of theIndustry and Commerce SectorsIndustry and Commerce Sectors

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Impact on Industry and Impact on Industry and Commerce SectorsCommerce Sectors

Extensive Extensive damagedamage caused by strong winds and caused by strong winds and widespread floodingwidespread flooding– Winds destroyed roofs and windows of shopsWinds destroyed roofs and windows of shops– Rain entering through collapsed roofs destroyed furniture, Rain entering through collapsed roofs destroyed furniture,

machinery, and stocks of goods and inputsmachinery, and stocks of goods and inputs– Floodwaters further damaged building contentsFloodwaters further damaged building contents

Large number of Micro-, Small, Medium and Large Large number of Micro-, Small, Medium and Large enterprises affectedenterprises affected

Production and sales Production and sales losseslosses occurred due to occurred due to– Interruption of power supplyInterruption of power supply– Destruction of assetsDestruction of assets– Lack of inputs, raw materials and goods for saleLack of inputs, raw materials and goods for sale

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Data Availability and CollectionData Availability and Collection

Baseline data for assessment included the most recent Baseline data for assessment included the most recent (2005) national survey of industry and commerce (2005) national survey of industry and commerce undertaken by the Statistical Institute, that provides undertaken by the Statistical Institute, that provides information oninformation on– Number, size and type of industrial and commerce Number, size and type of industrial and commerce

establishmentsestablishments– Average monthly sales by size and type of establishmentAverage monthly sales by size and type of establishment

Since it was impossible to visit and assess the many Since it was impossible to visit and assess the many thousands of affected shops, the data collection thousands of affected shops, the data collection scheme includedscheme included– Field visits to representative factories and shops in the most Field visits to representative factories and shops in the most

affected Districts, carried out by assessment teamaffected Districts, carried out by assessment team– A special sample field survey to determine damage and losses A special sample field survey to determine damage and losses

to micro to large enterprises,carried out by private survey to micro to large enterprises,carried out by private survey enterpriseenterprise

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Assessment ProcedureAssessment Procedure

Damage and losses were extrapolated to the entire Damage and losses were extrapolated to the entire affected area by combiningaffected area by combining– Primary information on damage and losses obtained from field Primary information on damage and losses obtained from field

survey by assessment team and from sample survey survey by assessment team and from sample survey undertaken by private enterprise that also provided information undertaken by private enterprise that also provided information on period of stoppage of production and saleson period of stoppage of production and sales

– Data on number, size and monthly production and sales from Data on number, size and monthly production and sales from most recent sector survey carried out in 2005 by Statistical most recent sector survey carried out in 2005 by Statistical Institute, andInstitute, and

– Data on number of destroyed and damaged housing units Data on number of destroyed and damaged housing units available from government authorities and supplemented available from government authorities and supplemented during field assessmentduring field assessment

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Number, Size and Production of Industry Number, Size and Production of Industry and Commerce Establishmentsand Commerce Establishments

(From INSTAT)(From INSTAT)

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Sample Survey ResultsSample Survey Results

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Housing Sector SurveyHousing Sector Survey

Scope of the Assessment ExerciseScope of the Assessment Exercise

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The ExerciseThe Exercise

Workshop participants are required to undertake the Workshop participants are required to undertake the estimation of damage and losses to the industry and estimation of damage and losses to the industry and commerce sectors after the 2008 Cyclone Season in commerce sectors after the 2008 Cyclone Season in MadagascarMadagascar

Special working groups composed of 6 to 10 persons are Special working groups composed of 6 to 10 persons are to be organized and each group will separately make to be organized and each group will separately make analysis of individual sectorsanalysis of individual sectors

Each working group will elect a leader to provide Each working group will elect a leader to provide coordination and also to present results of the coordination and also to present results of the assessment to the entire workshop upon completionassessment to the entire workshop upon completion

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Procedure for ExerciseProcedure for Exercise

1. 1. Estimate Estimate number of affected establishmentsnumber of affected establishments, for the two , for the two sectors, breaking it down by micro, small to medium sectors, breaking it down by micro, small to medium and large sizesand large sizes

a)a) Obtain destruction rates from housing sector Obtain destruction rates from housing sector assessment data and apply as required to micro, SME assessment data and apply as required to micro, SME and large establishments, as follows:and large establishments, as follows:– For micro enterprises, destruction rate from local-material For micro enterprises, destruction rate from local-material

houseshouses– For SMES and large enterprises, destruction rate for durable-For SMES and large enterprises, destruction rate for durable-

material unitsmaterial units

b)b) Combine with number of shops of each size and type Combine with number of shops of each size and type taken from INSTAT datataken from INSTAT data

c)c) Obtain number of affected shops for each sector and Obtain number of affected shops for each sector and each size and type of establishmenteach size and type of establishment

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Procedure for Exercise ..Procedure for Exercise ..

2. 2. Estimate Estimate value of damagevalue of damage for each sector, with for each sector, with breakdown by size of establishmentbreakdown by size of establishment

a)a) Using number of affected shops obtained under Using number of affected shops obtained under step 1step 1

b)b) Multiply by average value of damage to buildings, Multiply by average value of damage to buildings, machinery, stocks obtained in sample surveymachinery, stocks obtained in sample survey

c)c) Obtain value of damage for each sector, by type Obtain value of damage for each sector, by type and size of shopand size of shop

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Procedure for Exercise ...Procedure for Exercise ...

3. 3. Estimate Estimate value of lossesvalue of losses for each sector, with for each sector, with breakdown by size of establishmentbreakdown by size of establishment

a)a) Using number of affected shops obtained in step 1Using number of affected shops obtained in step 1

b)b) Multiply by value of average losses estimated by Multiply by value of average losses estimated by combining period of stoppage obtained from sample combining period of stoppage obtained from sample survey and the value of average monthly output/sales survey and the value of average monthly output/sales per type and size of establishment taken from INSTAT per type and size of establishment taken from INSTAT datadata

c)c) Obtain value of losses for each sector, by type and Obtain value of losses for each sector, by type and size of shopsize of shop

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Procedure for Exercise ....Procedure for Exercise ....

4.4. Estimate Estimate total valuetotal valuess of damage and losses of damage and losses for for each sector, by combining the estimates from each sector, by combining the estimates from steps 2 and 3, with breakdown by type and size of steps 2 and 3, with breakdown by type and size of establishmentestablishment

5.5. Prepare a brief presentation of results of the Prepare a brief presentation of results of the assessment to be discussed by all participants of assessment to be discussed by all participants of the workshopthe workshop