2008 Cyclone Season in Madagascar2008 Cyclone Season in Madagascar

Results of the AssessmentResults of the Assessment

Damage and Loss Assessment MethodologyDamage and Loss Assessment Methodology

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Damage and Loss Assessment Damage and Loss Assessment MethodologyMethodology

Methodology developedMethodology developedin the Latin America and in the Latin America and Caribbean Region, andCaribbean Region, andused since 1972used since 1972

Adapted for use in otherAdapted for use in otherregions of the Worldregions of the World

Utilized by the WB inUtilized by the WB inseveral major disastersseveral major disastersin the Asian region:in the Asian region:Gujarat, Tsunami, etcGujarat, Tsunami, etc

www.eclac.org/mexico/documentswww.eclac.org/mexico/documentswww.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm

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Concepts and DefinitionsConcepts and Definitions

DamageDamageTotal or partial Total or partial

destruction of destruction of physical assetsphysical assets

Occur during the event Occur during the event itselfitself

Measured in physical Measured in physical units and valued at units and valued at replacement costreplacement cost

LossesLossesChanges in economic Changes in economic

flowsflowsOccur after the natural Occur after the natural

event, and over a event, and over a relatively long time relatively long time periodperiod

Valued at current Valued at current pricesprices

Total Effects : Damage + LossesTotal Effects : Damage + Losses

Immediate EffectsImmediate Effects Medium-Term EffectsMedium-Term Effects

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The Timing of Disaster EffectsThe Timing of Disaster Effects

Time, months

DamageDamage

LosseLossess

5 yrs

Full Full ReconstructioReconstructio

n and n and Economic Economic RecoveryRecovery

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Results of the AssessmentResults of the Assessment

The estimated total amount of damage The estimated total amount of damage and losses caused by the cyclones and losses caused by the cyclones in 2008 is in 2008 is 595 595 milliardmilliard Ariary Ariary or or US$ US$ 360 million360 million

Equivalent to about 4.3% of 2007 Equivalent to about 4.3% of 2007 gross domestic productgross domestic product

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Ownership of Disaster EffectsOwnership of Disaster Effects

21%

79%

Public Private

An indication of post-disaster effortsAn indication of post-disaster efforts

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Damage and Losses BreakdownDamage and Losses Breakdown

Estimated Value of Disaster EffectsEstimated Value of Disaster EffectsMilliardMilliard Ariary Ariary

DamageDamage 333.7 333.7

Losses Losses 261.4 261.4

Total Total 595.1 595.1

56%

44%

Damage Losses

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Summary of Damage and LossesSummary of Damage and Losses

Disaster Effects, milliard Ariary

Damage Losses Total Social Sectors 167,311.6 24,077.0 191,388.6

Education 5,276.6 1,059.9 6,336.5 Health 11,230.0 5,690.5 16,920.5 Nutrition 1,314.3 1,575.7 2,890.0

Housing 149,490.7 15,750.9 165,241.6 Productive Sectors 82,749.9 211,909.1 294,659.0

Agriculture, livestock and fisheries 10,461.1 159,564.3 170,025.4 Industry 32,604.5 20,541.2 53,145.7 Commerce 39,020.1 6,575.6 45,595.7

Tourism 664.2 25,228.0 25,892.2 Infrastructure 60,911.8 24,921.8 85,833.6

Electricity 3,353.8 2,924.5 6,278.3 Water and Sanitation 885.1 1,729.0 2,614.1 Transport 55,383.6 20,083.6 75,467.2

Communications 1,289.3 184.7 1,474.0 Cross-Sectoral 22,771.6 475.8 23,247.4

Environment 356.6 475.8 832.4 Public Administration buildings 22,415.0 22,415.0

TOTAL 333,744.9 261,383.7 595,128.6

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Sector-by-Sector EffectsSector-by-Sector Effects

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

To

tal E

ffec

ts, m

illio

n A

riar

y

Damage Losses

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Geographical Distribution of EffectsGeographical Distribution of Effects

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Disaster Effects, million Ariary

Analanjirofo

Atsinanana

Menabe

Alaotra Mangoro

Boeny

Sofia

Macro-Economic ImpactMacro-Economic Impact

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Macro-Economic ImpactMacro-Economic Impact

The economy of Madagascar, prior to the cyclone season The economy of Madagascar, prior to the cyclone season of 2008, was expected to growth at an annual rate of of 2008, was expected to growth at an annual rate of 7.3%7.3%

Taking into consideration the losses that have been Taking into consideration the losses that have been estimated, estimated, the growth rate of the country´s gross the growth rate of the country´s gross domestic product is expected to slow down by 0.2 per domestic product is expected to slow down by 0.2 per centcent

Due to the reduction of exports and increase in imports of Due to the reduction of exports and increase in imports of goods, plus the reduction of income from tourism goods, plus the reduction of income from tourism services, services, the current account of the balance of the current account of the balance of payments would decline 10%,payments would decline 10%, from 114.3 to 102.7 million from 114.3 to 102.7 million SDRSDR

Due to increased post-disaster current expenditures and Due to increased post-disaster current expenditures and lower tax revenues, lower tax revenues, fiscal sector overall balance would fiscal sector overall balance would decline from 5.0 to 4.9% of GDPdecline from 5.0 to 4.9% of GDP

Impact at the Household or Personal LevelImpact at the Household or Personal Level

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Most Affected Regions in Per Capita EffectsMost Affected Regions in Per Capita Effects

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Ariary Per Capita

Analanjirofo

Atsinanana

Menabe

Melaky

Boeny

Diana

Atsimo Atsinanana

Thank You!!!Thank You!!!