Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select ...€¦ · a right-translated trading cycle advance and therefore, of the intermediate-term cycle low. Given that this

Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary

of Select Markets as of the close on

June 26, 2020

*Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term

Market Daily CTI

Daily Swing

Weekly CTI

Weekly Swing

Industrial Negative High Positive HighTransports Negative High Positive High

NDX Negative High Positive LowS&P Inverse Fund Positive N/A * Negative High

CRB Index Negative High Positive LowGold Negative High Positive LowXAU Positive High Positive Low

Dollar Positive Low Negative LowBonds Positive Low Negative Low

Crude Oil Negative Low Positive LowUnleaded Negative High Positive Low

Natural Gas Negative High Negative High

© Copyright 2020 by Tim Wood �3

Short-term Updates

Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator

The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator.

All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link.


http://www.cyclesman.info/New%20Subscriber%20Info.htm

June 28, 2020

Stocks

We are still having some website issues. If the site loads slowly or fails to load, refresh your browser and try it again. They are working on some server upgrades, so please bear with us. If the site should go down, please be assured we are working on it and will have it back up as soon as possible. I’m told we should have the upgrades done by early next week. I’ve also seen issues with other quote services and other sites, so I’m not sure how much of it is actually the server and how much may be related to other web based issues, but it is being addressed.

The evidence has been suggestive of the trading cycle top and this past week we saw the re-confirmation of the short-term sell signal that we were looking for. The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between June 25th and July 15th. While we have entered the early side of this timing band, structurally the price/oscillator picture would be more complete if we were to see further weakness into the middle portion of the timing band. In the event we see the completion of a daily swing low, prior to another push down, then

End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High BearishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BullishCTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * BearishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BullishAdvance/Decline Issues Diff BullishNew High New Low Diff BullishSecondary Indicators

5 3 3 Stochastic BearishCycle Momentum Indicator Bearish*When this indicator is Bullish it is negative for the market and visa versa.

Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell/NeutralPrimary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High BearishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BearishSlow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BearishNew High/New Low Differential BearishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BearishMcClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM)

Bearish

McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM)

Bearish

McClellan Summation Index BearishMcClellan Volume Summation Index Bearish

Secondary Short Term Indicators5 3 3 Stochastic BearishCycle Momentum Indicator BullishTrading Cycle Oscillator BearishMomentum Indicator BearishRatio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover

Bearish

Accumulation/Distribution Index Bullish


we will examine the evidence at that time with regard to the trading cycle low. Ideally, late this next week or early the following would be perfect timing for the now due low. With this week’s price action occurring within the previous week’s price bar, there were no changes at that level in that the previously formed weekly swing high stands. The intermediate-term cycle top should be in place, but we have to see the triggering of an intermediate-term sell signal in order to confirm it. Once the trading cycle low is seen, the expectation is to see a counter-trend left-translated bounce that sets price up for the push into the intermediate-term cycle low in conjunction with the next trading cycle.

As with Equities, Crude Oil triggered a short-term sell signal on Wednesday and that sell signal remains intact. Ideally, the trading and intermediate-term cycle top should be in place. Structurally, the same holds true with the CRB Index. The short-term sell signals in Crude Oil and the CRB are an opportunity to cap the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top/s, but we next need to see an intermediate-term sell signal as evidence to that effect. The price action on Friday triggered a short-term sell signal, but with price reversing off of the low, we have to see a close below Friday’s low as confirmation of the sell signal. The XAU triggered a short-term sell signal on Wednesday, which is suggestive of the trading cycle top. That sell signal still remains intact, but the price action on Friday turned the daily CTI up. Therefore, we need to see a close below Friday’s low and another downturn of the CTI in order to reconfirm the sell signal. The Dollar re-triggered a short-term buy signal on Thursday and Friday yielded no change. The expectation continues for the advance out of the trading cycle low to be counter-trend and for the intermediate-term cycle low to occur in conjunction with another trading cycle down. The additional advance in Bonds this week has corrected the left-translated structure and we saw the completion of a weekly swing low this past week. This weekly swing low was not confirmed by an upturn of the weekly CTI and for that reason an intermediate-term buy signal was not triggered, but until proven otherwise, the assumption now is that the intermediate-term cycle low has likely been seen.


The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle. The corresponding high, with the price high, stands and the weakness that has followed continues to get traction. Any further weakness that turns the Green MA below the Black will be suggestive of an intermediate degree turn having been seen. Structurally, we still need to see the completion of a weekly swing high that is confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI, along with the crossing of the MA lines as evidence of the higher degree cycle top/s.


The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window continues to weaken and should have further to go as we move into the trading cycle low. The Momentum indicator has turned down below its zero line and should also move lower as Equities move into the trading cycle low. The 5 3 3 stochastic in the middle window is nearing oversold levels, but should also ideally move lower into the trading cycle low. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which also continues turning down. The Trend Indicator continues to weaken as well.


The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above.

The Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicator turned down in conjunction with Wednesday’s completion of a daily swing high, which retriggered another short-term sell signal, which served to reconfirm the previously triggered short-term sell sign that was seen in conjunction with the trading cycle top. Ideally, the trading cycle low should still lie ahead with another few days of weakness. But, once a daily swing low and upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators are seen, this low should be in place.


Both the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator continue to weaken, which continues to be suggestive of the anticipated top.


Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index also continue to weaken, which also continues to be suggestive of the anticipated top. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator has turned back down and is moving into oversold territory. It is from such levels that either a low is seen or the decline accelerates.


The smoothed McClellan oscillator remains below its trigger line. This continues to be suggestive of the trading cycle top and in turn leaves the market at risk of a higher degree cycle turn as well.


The Accumulation/Distribution Index has turned back down and is sitting right on its trigger line. This remains a critical juncture for Equities and any further weakness that triggers an intermediate-term sell signal is going to put Equities in an increasingly vulnerable position. The risk here remains high.


Our weekly chart of the Industrials is next. The price action the week of June 19th the Industrials completed the formation of a weekly swing high. This, along with the downturn of the Cycle Momentum Indicator and the 5 3 3 stochastic from overbought levels, the price/oscillator picture is definitely suggestive of the intermediate-term cycle top. But, with this past week being an inside week, there were no changes at this level and we still need to see the triggering of an intermediate-term sell signal. Any further weakness from here that turns the weekly CTI down will trigger an intermediate-term sell signal, which should serve as confirmation of the suspected intermediate-term cycle top. The timing band for the intermediate-term cycle low runs between July 17th and September 18th. The expectation is for the advance out of the pending trading cycle low to be a failed and left-translated counter-trend bounce that is then followed by greater weakness into the intermediate-term cycle low. I also expect this to mark the higher degree cycle top/s as well, but we will have to see evidence to that effect as we move down into the intermediate-term cycle low. More on that as we get into the intermediate-term cycle decline. Shorter-term, we are moving into a trading cycle low, but again, the bounce should be counter-trend and followed by greater weakness into the intermediate-term cycle low. A weekly swing low will be seen in the coming week if 24,843.18 holds and if 26,611.03 is bettered.


Next is a cyclical tracking index that I have been working with and it has triggered an intermediate-term sell signal. Every indication is that the intermediate-term cycle top has been seen, which in turn implies that the general Equity market should follow.


Another chart of interest is the current monthly chart of the XMI, and here too, we have the setup with the upturn of the regular CTI while the slow CTI remains negative. This setup is also in place on the American Stock Exchange, the NYSE and others. I discussed this setup last year when it was in place and with it back in the making I covered it again in the June Research Letter. If you have not read that material, you should.


Gold

The price action on Thursday completed the formation of a daily swing high. While the oscillator picture was definitely suggestive of the trading cycle top, with the daily CTI remaining positive on Thursday, a short-term sell signal was not triggered. On Friday the daily CTI turned down, which did trigger a short-term sell signal, but with price reversing off of the lows, we need to see a close below Friday’s low as confirmation of the sell signal. The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between July 1st and July 16th. Based on this timing and the accompanying price/oscillator picture, the trading cycle top should be at hand and ideally in place. A close below Friday’s low should serve to confirm the trading cycle top whereas any additional strength should be an ending push into that top. In addition to this trading cycle top, the oscillator picture continues to be increasingly ripe for the intermediate-term cycle top. More on that below.

End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy/Neutral

Primary Indicators

Formation of a Weekly Swing Low BullishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BullishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BullishCycle Momentum Indicator BullishSecondary Indicators

5 3 3 Stochastic Bullish

Daily Indicator SummaryShort-Term Neutral/Sell

Primary Indicators

Formation of a Daily Swing High BearishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BearishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BullishCycle Momentum Indicator BullishSecondary Short Term Indicators

5 3 3 Stochastic Bearish


The timing band for the intermediate-term cycle ran between March 6th and April 24th. This low was seen on March 16th and because of the anticipated higher degree cycle tops, the expectation has been for this intermediate-term cycle advance to peak with a left-translated structure. Since the price reversal the week of April 17th, and the price action that followed, Gold was certainly at risk of a left-translated structure taking hold. At the same time, Gold has been resistant to decline and I have explained that in order to correct the left-translated intermediate-term structure Gold must better the April 17th weekly swing high, which it did this past week. In doing so, a weekly swing low was completed and another intermediate-term buy signal was triggered. This does not change the fact that the timing band for the next intermediate-term cycle low runs between July 19th and August 28th. For this reason, while the left-translated structure was corrected, the intermediate-term cycle top is still due and as discussed in last weekend’s update, this additional advance should be a final push into the intermediate-term cycle top. Once another weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI is seen, the intermediate-term cycle top should be in place.


Our weekly chart of the XAU is next. Per the parameters given in last weekend’s update, the price action this past week completed the formation of a weekly swing low that was confirmed by an upturn of the weekly CTI, which triggered an intermediate-term buy signal. In this case, the seasonal cycle low was seen in March and the current structure continues to put Gold at risk of the intermediate-term cycle top. Based on the intermediate-term phasing, this advance is expected to be counter-trend and followed by lower prices, but that test is now at hand. If this advance proves to be a failed and/or a left-translated advance, then we should prove to have the intermediate-term cycle top, which will put the XAU at further risk of the higher degree seasonal cycle top. In the meantime, this intermediate-term buy signal will stand until a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI are seen. A weekly swing high will be completed in the coming week if 125.55 is not bettered and if 119.14 is violated.


Next, in an effort to give you some perspective with regard to the higher degree cycle top, I wanted to show that both the monthly slow and regular Cycle Turn Indicators have turned down. The implications here speak for themselves in that every indication is that a higher degree cycle top is in the making. Also for perspective, keep in mind that a higher level top in the XAU is also indicative of a higher level top in Gold. The process here has taken longer than anticipated, but nothing has changed the fact that these higher degree cycle tops should be in the making.


Dollar

The Dollar was flat on Friday, so there were no changes. The trading cycle low was seen on June 10th and the timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between July 6th and July 20th. Because of the structure of the intermediate-term cycle and the timing for the next intermediate-term cycle low, the expectation has been for the advance out of this trading cycle low to be counter-trend and followed by at least one more trading cycle down. Within the context of that expectation, Thursday’s short-term buy signal remains intact. While this buy signal will stand until it is reversed, the expectation continues to be for this trading cycle advance to be counter-trend and for there to be at least one more trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low. Overall, the Dollar should be in the process of building the intermediate-term cycle cycle low and there should be another trip down in that process. A daily swing high will be completed on Monday if 97.66 is not bettered and if 97.23 is violated.

End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell

Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low BullishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Bearish

Confirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) Bearish

Cycle Momentum Indicator BearishSecondary Indicators5 3 3 Stochastic Bullish

Daily Indicator SummaryShort-Term Buy

Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low BullishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Bullish

Confirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) Bullish

Cycle Momentum Indicator BullishSecondary Indicators5 3 3 Stochastic Bullish


Our weekly chart of the Dollar is next. With the Dollar being flat this past week, at this level there were also no changes. The intermediate-term cycle low was seen the week of March 13th and the top was seen the week of March 27th. The resulting structure put a left-translated intermediate-term cycle into motion and with the timing band for the next intermediate-term cycle low running between July 3rd and August 21st, further weakness into the timing band with one more trading cycle down is expected. That said, the price action the week of June 19th completed the formation of a weekly swing low, which is indicative of the intermediate-term cycle low trying to take hold. Any further advance that turns the weekly CTI, plotted with price, up, will trigger an intermediate-term buy signal. However, with the timing band for this low still ahead, we should ideally see another push down as this low is formed. Any further advance from here will also begin to make the trading cycle right-translated, structurally. Should this occur, as explained in last weekend’s update, we will have to consider the possibility of an early intermediate-term cycle low at that time. In the meantime, the test remains at hand and until the Dollar can prove that is has made an early low, we cannot yet rule out another push down. More on this as it develops. A weekly swing high will be seen in the coming week if 97.70 is not bettered and if 96.32 is violated.


Bonds

The trading cycle low was seen on June 5th and we have known that the intermediate-term cycle low is due with either this trading cycle low or the next. We have also known that the structural developments in association with the trading cycle advance were key with regard to the intermediate-term cycle. I reported here last weekend that a bettering of the June 15th daily swing high late this past week would be indicative of a right-translated trading cycle advance and therefore, of the intermediate-term cycle low. Given that this is exactly what we saw this past week, the assumption is that the intermediate-term cycle low is likely in place. Further confirmation of this will come with the triggering of an intermediate-term buy signal and with the decline into the trading cycle low holding above the previous trading cycle low. I would ideally like to see another few days of strength into the trading cycle top. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between June 26th and July 16th Once a daily swing high and downturn of the CTI are seen, this trading cycle top should be in place.

End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term NeutralPrimary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low BullishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BearishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BearishCycle Momentum Indicator BullishSecondary Indicators5 3 3 Stochastic Bullish

Daily Indicator SummaryShort-Term BuyPrimary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low BullishCycle Turn Indicator (CTI) BullishConfirming IndicatorsTrend Indicator (TI) BullishCycle Momentum Indicator BullishSecondary Short Term Indicators5 3 3 Stochastic Bullish


Our weekly chart of Bonds is next. The timing band for the now due intermediate-term cycle low runs between April 24th and July 17th and again, we know this low either bottomed in conjunction with the current trading cycle low or it should do so with the next. The price action this past week completed the formation of a weekly swing low and in addition to the continued trading cycle advance, the oscillator picture is also suggestive of the intermediate-term cycle low having occurred with the recent trading cycle low. The next step at this level is the triggering of an intermediate-term buy signal, which will come in conjunction with any further advance that turns the weekly CTI up. Final structural confirmation will follow upon the trading cycle low holding above the previous trading cycle low. In the meantime, based on the evidence at hand, every indication is that the intermediate-term cycle low is in place, which we will assume to be the case. With regard to the bigger picture with Bonds, if this intermediate-term cycle advance fails to better the March high and/or if it peaks with a left-translated structure, it is going to be suggestive of a left-translated seasonal cycle top and consequently of the 3-year cycle top. If you have not read the Road Map to Crisis and the Bond sections of the June letter, you need to do so. The advance out of the intermediate-term cycle low is going to be extremely important.


Crude Oil

The price action on Friday marginally completed the formation of a daily swing high, but with the CTI remaining negative, Wednesday’s short-term sell signal remains intact. This sell signal is an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term advance out of the April low, but only 2 trading day’s into the turn, we have to see more structural evidence with regard to the higher degree turn. This decline is approaching oversold levels, per the 5 3 3 stochastic, but ideally further weakness should follow to pull the oscillators into oversold territory. Regardless, this sell signal will remain intact until a daily swing low and upturn of the daily CTI are seen. Then, once a failed and/or left-translated trading cycle top is followed by the completion of a weekly swing high, we will have cyclical/structural evidence of the higher level intermediate-term cycle top. Longer-term, because of the higher degree cyclical structure and phasing, the expectation of this being a counter-trend advance stands. Another daily swing high will be completed on Monday if 39.35 is not bettered and if 37.79 is violated.


Our weekly chart is next. Conditions are extremely ripe for the intermediate-term cycle top and the intra-week price reversal leaves Crude Oil positioned for the completion of a weekly swing high, which would be structural evidence of the top having been seen. Because of the higher degree structure and the timing for the next 3-year cycle low, while this bounce has been of intermediate degree, it is expected to be counter-trend. In the meantime, this buy signal will remain intact until a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI are seen. Once that occurs, the next structural indication of the advance out of the April low having run its course will come with a failed and left-translated trading cycle advance. A weekly swing high will be completed in the coming week if 41.63 is not bettered and if 37.08 is violated.

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Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select ...€¦ · a right-translated trading cycle advance and therefore, of the intermediate-term cycle low. Given that this