CSI: Climate Status Investigations

Teacher Training Institute

April 16-21, 2008

Climate Change 101

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…

20041995

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…

200620041995

Presentation Outline

• The Greenhouse Effect

• Where Does Our Energy Come From?

• Emissions

• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes

• Future Trends

Source: EPA Global Warming site.http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html

CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

1 21 310 6,500 23,900

Atmospheric Lifetime (years)

50-200 12 114 >50,000 3,200

Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm)

280 0.722 0.270 40 0

Atmospheric Concentration (ppm)

381 1.774 0.319 80 5.4

Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr)

1,610 0.005 0.0007 1.0 (ppt/yr)

0.23 (ppt/yr)

Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases

Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

CONVERSION CHARTS

1 unit carbon (C) = 3.6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO2)

1 unit CO2 = 0.2727 or 12/44 units C

Converting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to equivalent CO2 and C units:

• Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 = 1

• GWP of CH4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)

• GWP of N2O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)

EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N2O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C

Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams)

1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs1 short ton = 0.9072 metric tons = 2,000 lbs1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons

Presentation Outline

• The Greenhouse Effect

• Where Does Our Energy Come From?

• Emissions

• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes

• Future Trends

Fossil FuelsWorld’s Dominant Energy Source

United States (2005)100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)

86% Fossil Energy

World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)

86% Fossil Energy

World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html

Coal26%Coal26%

Oil37%

Gas23%

Nuclear 6%

Gas23%

Nuclear 8%

Oil41%

Hydro 3%

Other renewable

(solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3%

Renewables 8%

Coal23%Coal23%

Renewables 6%

100 Quads

Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy

2005

2030

131 Quads

By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains

stable at 86%

Coal23%

Nuclear 8%

Renewables 6%

Oil 41%

Gas23%

Coal26%

Nuclear 7%

Oil 40%

Gas20%

+ 31%

Source: AEO 2007

Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation

Hydro, 3.0

Biomass, 3.2

Muni Waste, 0.4

Biofuels, 5.1

Geothermal, 0.8

Wind, 1.2

Solar, 0.0

Hydro, 2.7

Biomass, 2.2

Biofuels, 0.6

Muni Waste, 0.4

Geothermal, 0.3

Solar, 0.0

Wind, 0.1

6.3 Quads2005

203013.7 Quads

+ 118%

Source: AEO 2008

Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base

Presentation Outline

• The Greenhouse Effect

• Where Does Our Energy Come From?

• Emissions

• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes

• Future Trends

All Fossil Fuels & Energy SectorsContribute CO2 Emissions

Industry29%

Industry29%

Commercial18%

Commercial18%

Residential21%

Transportation32%

Transportation32%

Oil44%Oil

44%

Coal36%Coal36%

Natural Gas20%

AEO2007

United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions(By Source & Sector)

CO2 & CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors

Methane9%

Nitrous Oxide5%

HFCs, PFCs, SF6

2%

CO2 fromEnergy

83%

Other CO2

2%

“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005”

United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions(Equivalent Global Warming Basis)

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)

Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)

…But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing

Carbon Intensity is Falling…

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

Car

bo

n

WRE 450

WRE 550

WRE 650

NETL 2003

BAU

Delay 550

Different Concentration Levels are Possible

Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Stabilization Requires a Budget

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

450 550 650 750ppm

Billion

ton

nes C

arb

on

(1900-2

100)

Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

The Budget is DisappearingCumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)

Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization

Today

531283

2010

375 439

2020

322492

2030

638 176

2040

809 5

Spent

Remaining

Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Presentation Outline

• The Greenhouse Effect

• Where Does Our Energy Come From?

• Emissions

• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes

• Future Trends

Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

CO2 Concentrations On The Rise(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

from

Pre

sent

(oC

)

Time Before Present (kyr)

CO

2 Con

cent

ratio

n(p

pmv)

200 150 50

350

300

250

200

100 0

2

0

-2

-4

Tatm (Vostok)

CO2 (Vostok)

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm

Presentation Outline• The Greenhouse Effect

• Where Does Our Energy Come From?

• Emissions

• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes

• Future Trends

Possible harbingers…

• Rising sea levels• Spreading disease• Earlier spring arrival• Plant and animal range shifts

and population changes• Coral reef bleaching• Permafrost melting• Downpours, heavy

snowfalls, and flooding• Droughts and fires

Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Permafrost and polar ice are melting…

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Precipitation is erratic

Significant Climate Anomalies

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA