CS China Commodity Report 20111122

8/3/2019 CS China Commodity Report 20111122

1/17

ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. FOR OTHER

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.com.

China Commodity TradeReport Oct 2011 Update

Commodities Research

Coal imports remain robust; nickel imports

jump higherThe Chinese authorities release their monthly trade data in two stages. The

second tranche for the month of October was released today, including imports

for coal, LNG, nickel, zinc, lead, tin and various agricultural products. We

observe that:1

Total coal imports fell compared to September, but remained robust after

accounting for seasonality (Exhibit 1). 2011 year-to-October imports continue

to stay slightly above 2010 year-to-October imports; LNG imports increased further in October, following its trend growth pattern

since early 2008. Year-on-year YTD imports are 23.8% higher;

Imports of unwrought copper and alloys continued to strengthen even further,

confirming the large increase in imports of copper and copper products

reported earlier in the month;

Imports of unwrought nickel and alloys (Exhibit 2) rose to a new recent high

(since the surge in the summer of 2009);

Tin imports continued to rise higher despite the strong reading in September.

However, lead and zinc imports trended sideways;

In agriculture, corn imports reached a new high for the year (in non-

seasonality adjusted terms), while sugar imports remained close to the new

highs reached last month. Cotton imports continued to rise.

Exhibit 1: Chinese coal imports remain high Exhibit 2: Chinese nickel imports rise again

Millions of tonnes, seasonally adjusted Thousands of tonnes, seasonally adjusted

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Im ports Net Im ports

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports Net Im ports

Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse Source: CEIC, China General Customs Administration, Credit Suisse

1 All discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated.

21 November 2011

Fixed Income Research

http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics

Research Analysts

Ric Deverell

+44 20 7883 2523

[email protected]

Martin Yu

+ 44 20 7883 2150

[email protected]

Joachim Azria

+1 212 325 4556

[email protected]

Tom Kendall

+44 20 7883 2432

[email protected]


2/17

21 November 2011

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update 2

Exhibit 3: Summary of Trade FiguresUnits as indicated below

Coal Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Total Coal Million tons 16.5900 19.1200 15.6900 25.1% 24.8% 27.4% 15.9382 18.1809 17.4941 139.7000 135.0200 3.5%

Coking Coal Million tons 3.2843 3.8908 0.0000 -15.3% -6.6% 0.0% 3.1517 3.3642 0.0000 30.3807 33.5313 -9.4%

Thermal Coal Million tons 13.3032 15.2271 0.0000 41.7% 36.5% 0.0% 13.3800 13.9225 0.0000 93.6250 89.1679 5.0%Exports

Total Coal Million tons 1.2500 1.2100 0.7900 -26.5% -34.9% -34.7% 1.1805 1.0240 0.8117 12.9100 16.3000 -20.8%

Iron Ore and Steel Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Iron Ore and Concentra tes Mi ll ion tons 59.0900 60.5700 49.9400 32.5% 15.2% 9.2% 61.4740 56.9470 59.1372 558.6800 503.6200 10.9%

Steel Products Million tons 1.3500 1.3300 1.2000 0.0% 0.8% 5.3% 1.2981 1.2168 1.3103 13.1600 13.6500 -3.6%

Steel Scrap Million tons 0.5200 0.7000 0.5600 -1.9% 42.9% 115.4% 0.4893 0.6299 0.7892 5.3400 4.8400 10.3%

Exports

Iron Ore and Concentrates Mil lion tons 0.0008 0.0008 0.0003 -93.0% n/a -89.4% 0.0012 0.0012 0.0005 0.0040 0.0152 -73.6%

Steel Products Million tons 4.1900 4.2100 3.8200 49.6% 39.9% 33.6% 3.7796 3.6673 3.8118 40.9900 36.8000 11.4%

Energy Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Crude Oi l Petroleum Million tons 21.0400 20.4500 20.8000 0.7% -12.2% 26.9% 20.1760 19.3027 21.4662 207.9300 197.5300 5.3%

Refined Petroleum Products Million tons 3.4100 2.7700 2.9100 33.2% -1.1% 7.0% 3.6007 3.1450 3.8497 33.2100 29.4100 12.9%

Middle Distillates Milli on tons 0.7840 0.7188 0.0000 63.8% 27.3% 0.0% 0.7148 0.7280 0.0000 5.6594 4.7976 18.0%

Liquified Natural Gas Million tons 1.0500 1.1500 0.8500 5.0% 17.3% 2.4% 0.8611 0.8892 0.9376 9.4000 7.5900 23.8%

ExportsCrude Oil Petroleum Million tons 0.1200 0.3300 0.1100 -52.0% -15.4% -57.7% 0.1279 0.3493 0.0854 2.0700 2.2100 -6.3%

Refined Petroleum Products Million tons 2.1700 2.2400 1.5900 4.8% 7.2% -15.4% 2.0531 2.3212 1.7206 21.4100 22.9300 -6.6%

Middle Distillates Milli on tons 0.7859 0.6467 0.0000 -10.5% -27.0% 0.0% 0.7925 0.6787 0.0000 6.7025 8.6272 -22.3%

Scrap Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Metal Sc rap Metric tons 1,100,000 1,340,000 1,160,000 -7.6% 17.5% 50.6% 1,049,089 1,216,327 1 ,324,072 11,290,000 10,740,000 5.1%

Copper Scrap Metric tons 380,000 420,000 380,000 -5.0% 2.4% 22.6% 344,719 362,626 414,228 3,810,000 3,520,000 8.2%

Aluminum Scrap Metric tons 200,000 220,000 220,000 -23.1% -8.3% 15.8% 176,619 178,175 232,734 2,110,000 2,330,000 -9.4%

Base Metals Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Copper & Copper Products Metr ic tons 340,398 380,526 383,507 -10.3% 3.3% 40.2% 347,078 345,349 459,491 3,112,428 3,596,254 -13.5%

Copper & Al loys Metric tons 270,470 314,008 330,276 -10.8% 7.8% 59.7% 291,393 318,208 352,932 2,456,357 2,829,254 -13.2%

Copper ore & concentrates Metr ic tons 680,000 560,000 520,000 44.7% -17.6% 10.6% 714,779 496,524 604,055 5,170,000 5,430,000 -4.8%

Alumini um & Al Products Metric tons 70,983 66,163 60,186 -2.3% 0.6% -14.9% 67,309 68,348 67,745 728,054 796,036 -8.5%

Aluminium & Alloys Metric tons 22,463 20,161 17,707 0.8% 8.5% -30.7% 18,858 23,234 21,585 240,888 306,526 -21.4%

Nickel & Alloys Metric tons 16,902 19,698 24,616 -7.3% 24.7% 29.3% 18,111 18,466 23,611 179,519 155,046 15.8%

Zinc & Alloys Metric tons 39,766 42,881 39,492 -20.2% 3.0% 21.3% 40,278 40,216 46,817 392,770 393,023 -0.1%Lead & Alloys Metric tons 3,679 5,074 4,592 -49.0% -32.6% 6.2% 4,506 5,083 6,036 42,352 49,604 -14.6%

Tin & Alloys Metric tons 1,605 3,791 4,122 -6.8% 157.2% 429.8% 1,751 3,256 4,693 15,909 16,496 -3.6%

Exports

Copper & Copper Products Metric tons 41,800 40,612 34,992 4.8% -5.6% -4.2% 38,373 39,179 36,914 575,151 452,912 27.0%

Copper & Alloys Metric tons 469 2,608 342 -18.6% -13.1% -78.3% 613 2,781 381 154,324 25,721 500.0%

Aluminium & Products Metr ic tons 340,000 290,000 290,000 25.9% 31.8% 16.0% 315,389 279,031 284,474 3,180,000 2,380,000 33.6%

Aluminium & Alloys Metric tons 62,227 60,715 64,650 6.1% 10.2% -6.3% 58,121 57,637 63,185 618,286 601,877 2.7%

Nickel & Alloys Metric tons 2,758 2,335 2,977 -17.6% -63.5% -35.1% 2,426 2,608 2,475 31,248 48,641 -35.8%

Zinc & Alloys Metric tons 3,800 3,443 2,406 643.6% 223.9% 153.3% 3,783 4,459 2,554 47,238 36,885 28.1%

Lead & Alloys Metric tons 616 83 504 -66.6% -95.8% -84.6% 1,107 102 468 11,813 21,269 -44.5%

Tin & Alloys Metric tons 1 3 0.0% -97.5% n/a 0.0% 0 2 0.0% 977 108 804.6%

Agriculture Units Augus t September October August September Oc tober August September Oc tober 2011 2010 % di ff

Imports

Corn Thousand tons 244.55 181.22 304.41 -43.4% -64.7% 20.8% 191.41 116.97 152.33 938.93 1,479.36 -36.5%

Wheat Thousand tons 128.66 177.66 60.65 42.6% 94.5% 395.6% 95.76 126.69 103.31 1,030.98 1,216.77 -15.3%

Soybean Thousand tons 4,510.00 4,130.00 3,810.00 -5.5% -11.0% 2.1% 4,249.05 4,897.73 4,791.65 41,510.00 4 3,890.00 -5.4%

Rice Thousand tons 58.41 26.95 18.24 290.1% 10.3% 109.8% 122.71 30.42 27.46 521.17 253.22 105.8%

Sugar Thousand tons 420.00 470.00 340.00 40.0% 34.3% 36.0% 341.93 379.80 330.75 2,010.00 1,620.00 24.1%

Cotton Thousand tons 210.00 250.00 250.00 -12.5% 25.0% 150.0% 192.78 312.94 414.15 2,190.00 2,250.00 -2.7%

Exports

Corn Thousand tons 13.29 10.20 41.42 46.8% 77.0% 757.6% 10.31 25.08 62.08 132.11 112.24 17.7%

Wheat Thousand tons 30.77 39.46 41.79 114.1% 40.4% 31.7% 28.84 23.85 40.03 267.05 205.32 30.1%

Soybean Thousand tons 10.00 10.00 10.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.26 19.87 22.00 170.00 150.00 13.3%

Rice Thousand tons 21.13 27.62 36.74 8.4% -15.7% -29.5% 35.50 38.39 33.18 347.12 505.23 -31.3%

Sugar Thousand tons 3.86 4.02 3.04 -18.5% -16.3% -50.9% 3.92 4.47 3.85 51.11 77.83 -34.3%

Cotton Thousand tons 1.10 0.46 0.00 4.3% -63.2% 0.0% 0.68 0.50 0.00 25.45 6.11 316.4%

Seasonally adjustedRaw Figures Year on Year Change Year to date*

*Year to date figures equate months with latest data to make both years comparable, based on raw figures.Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse


3/17

21 Novembe

China Commodity Trade Report Oct 2011 Update

China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities Res

Coal

Total Coal (millions of tonnes) Total Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted

ource: CEIC, China Customs General Administration Source: CEIC, China Customs General Administration, Credit Suisse

Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) Coking Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted

ource: GTIS Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse

Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) Thermal Coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted

ource: GTIS Source: GTIS, Credit Suisse

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports Net Imports

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


Imports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


Imports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


Imports


4/17

21 Novembe



Iron Ore and Steel

ron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) Iron Ore and Concentrates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Steel Products (millions of tonnes) Steel Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) Ferrous Waste & Scrap (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports


5/17

21 Novembe



Crude and Refined Petroleum

Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Crude Oil Petroleum (millions of tonnes) Net Imports Refined Petroleum Products (millions of tonnes) Net Imports


0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


6/17

21 Novembe



Middle Distillates and LNG

Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted

ou rc e: C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni st ra ti on , C re di t Su is se So ur ce : C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni str at io n, C re di t S ui ss e

Middle Distillates (millions of tonnes) Net Imports Liquefied Natural Gas (millions of tonnes) Net Imports

ou rc e: C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni st ra ti on , C re di t Su is se So ur ce : C EIC , C hi na C us to ms G en er al A dmi ni str at io n, C re di t S ui ss e

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

J F M A M J J A S O N

2008 2009 2010 2011


7/17

21 Novembe



Scrap

Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) Total Metal Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) Copper Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) Aluminum Scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports


8/17

21 Novembe



Copper

Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) Copper & Copper Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Copper & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) Copper Ores & Concentrates (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Imports


9/17

21 Novembe



Aluminium and Nickel

Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) Unwrought Aluminium & Aluminium Products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Aluminium & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Nickel & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted

ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, China Customs General Administ ration, Credi t Suisse

-340,000

-240,000

-140,000

-40,000

60,000

160,000

260,000

360,000

460,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-340,000

-240,000

-140,000

-40,000

60,000

160,000

260,000

360,000

460,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-150,000

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-150,000

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



10/17

21 Novembe



Zinc, Lead and Tin

Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Zinc & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Lead & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) Unwrought Tin & Alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted


-50,000

-10,000

30,000

70,000

110,000

150,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-50,000

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-50,000

-10,000

30,000

70,000

110,000

150,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-50,000

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



11/17

21 Novembe



Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Corn (thousands of tonnes) Corn (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Wheat (thousands of tonnes) Wheat (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Soybean (thousands of tonnes) Soybean (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


-1,200

-700

-200

300

800

1,300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-1,200

-700

-200

300

800

1,300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



12/17

21 Novembe



Rice, Sugar and Cotton

Rice (thousands of tonnes) Rice (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Sugar (thousands of tonnes) Sugar (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


Cotton (thousands of tonnes) Cotton (thousands of tonnes) seasonally adjusted


-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



13/17

21 Novembe



Chinese Net Imports (Exports) as Percentage of Global Imports 2010*

Crude Oil Petroleum Products Iron and Steel (SITC 67)

ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BP Statistics, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse

ron ore and concentrates Coal Copper

ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse

Aluminum Soybeans Cotton

ource: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, UNCTAD, USDA, Credit Suisse

Red pie charts indicate net imports, blue pie charts indicate net exports

China

12%

Rest of

World

88%

China

4%

Rest of

World

96%

China

3%

Rest of

World

97%

China

63%

Rest of

World

37%

China

12%

Rest of

World

88%

China

22%

Rest of

World

78%

China

5%

Rest of

World

95%

China

58%

Rest of

World

42%

China

31%

Rest of

World

69%


14/17

21 Novembe



Chinese Imports as Percentage of Global Imports

Crude Oil, Oil Products, Natural Gas and Coal Copper, Aluminum and Lead

ource: t he B LOOM BE RG P ROFE SS IONA L servi ce , B P S ta ti st ical Y earbook, UNCTA D, Credi t S ui sse Source : UNCTA D, Credi t S ui sse

Nickel, Zinc and Tin Iron Ore & Concentrates, Iron & Steel

ource: UNCTAD, Credit Suisse Source: UNCTAD, Credit Suisse

Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal Sugar, Corn, Wheat and Cotton

ou rc e: t he B LO OMBE RG PR OF ESS IO NAL s er vi ce , U SD A, C re di t S ui ss e So ur ce : th e B LO OMBE RG P RO FESS ION AL s er vi ce , U SD A, C re di t Su is se

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Crude Oil Oil Products Natural Gas Coal

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Copper Aluminum Lead

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Nickel Zinc Tin

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Iron Ore & Concentrates Iron & Steel

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Soybean Soybean Oil Soybean Meal

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Sugar Corn Wheat Cotton


15/17

GLOBAL COMMODITIES RESEARCH

Ric Deverell, Director

Global Head of Commodities Research

+44 20 7883 2523

[email protected] Miller, Managing Director

Global Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research

+1 212 538 6480

[email protected]

LONDON One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, United Kingdom

Tom Kendall, Vice President

+44 20 7883 [email protected]

Marcus Garvey, Analyst


Martin Yu, Analyst


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Cilline Bain, Associate


NEW YORK 11 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010

Jan Stuart, Managing Director

Head of Energy


Joachim Azria, Associate


Stefan Revielle, Associate


SINGAPORE One Raffles Link, Singapore 039393

Andrew Shaw, Director

+65 6212 4244

[email protected]

Ivan Szpakowski, Associate

+65 6212 3534

[email protected]


16/17

Disclosure Appendix

Analyst CertificationRic Deverell, Martin Yu, Joachim Azria and Tom Kendall each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that he or she analyzes, that (1) the viewsexpressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or hercompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Important DisclosuresCredit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail, please refer toCredit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research-and-analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.htmlCredit Suisses policy is to publish research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject issuer, the sector or the market thatmay have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including Credit Suisse's totalrevenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's Investment Banking and Fixed Income Divisions.Credit Suisse may trade as principal in the securities or derivatives of the issuers that are the subject of this report.At any point in time, Credit Suisse is likely to have significant holdings in the securities mentioned in this report.As at the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the debt securities of the subject issuer(s) mentioned in this report.For important disclosure information on securities recommended in this report, please visit the website at https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.comor call +1-212-538-7625.For the history of any relative value trade ideas suggested by the Fixed Income research department as well as fundamental recommendations provided bythe Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategy Group over the previous 12 months, please view the document at http://research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docpopup.asp?ctbdocid=330703_1_en . Credit Suisse clients with access to the Locus website may refer to http://www.credit-

suisse.com/locus .For the history of recommendations provided by Technical Analysis, please visit the website at http://www.credit-suisse.com/techanalysis.Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used,by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.

Emerging Markets Bond Recommendation DefinitionsBuy: Indicates a recommended buy on our expectation that the issue will deliver a return higher than the risk-free rate.Sell: Indicates a recommended sell on our expectation that the issue will deliver a return lower than the risk-free rate.

Corporate Bond Fundamental Recommendation DefinitionsBuy: Indicates a recommended buy on our expectation that the issue will be a top performer in its sector.Outperform: Indicates an above-average total return performer within its sector. Bonds in this category have stable or improving credit profiles and areundervalued, or they may be weaker credits that, we believe, are cheap relative to the sector and are expected to outperform on a total-return basis. Thesebonds may possess price risk in a volatile environment.Market Perform: Indicates a bond that is expected to return average performance in its sector.Underperform: Indicates a below-average total-return performer within its sector. Bonds in this category have weak or worsening credit trends, or they may

be stable credits that, we believe, are overvalued or rich relative to the sector.Sell: Indicates a recommended sell on the expectation that the issue will be among the poor performers in its sector.Restricted: In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including aninvestment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.Not Rated: Credit Suisse Global Credit Research or Global Leveraged Finance Research covers the issuer but currently does not offer an investment viewon the subject issue.Not Covered: Neither Credit Suisse Global Credit Research nor Global Leveraged Finance Research covers the issuer or offers an investment view on theissuer or any securities related to it. Any communication from Research on securities or companies that Credit Suisse does not cover is factual or areasonable, non-material deduction based on an analysis of publicly available information.

Corporate Bond Risk Category DefinitionsIn addition to the recommendation, each issue may have a risk category indicating that it is an appropriate holding for an "average" high yield investor,designated as Market, or that it has a higher or lower risk profile, designated as Speculative and Conservative, respectively.

Credit Suisse Credit Rating Definitions

Credit Suisse may assign rating opinions to investment-grade and crossover issuers. Ratings are based on our assessment of a company's creditworthinessand are not recommendations to buy or sell a security. The ratings scale (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B) is dependent on our assessment of an issuer's ability tomeet its financial commitments in a timely manner. Within each category, creditworthiness is further detailed with a scale of High, Mid, or Low with Highbeing the strongest sub-category rating: High AAA, Mid AAA, Low AAA obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is extremely strong; HighAA, Mid AA, Low AA obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is very strong; High A, Mid A, Low A obligor's capacity to meet its financialcommitments is strong; High BBB, Mid BBB, Low BBB obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments is adequate, but adverseeconomic/operating/financial circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity to meet its obligations; High BB, Mid BB, Low BB obligationshave speculative characteristics and are subject to substantial credit risk; High B, Mid B, Low B obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitments isvery weak and highly vulnerable to adverse economic, operating, and financial circumstances; HighCCC, Mid CCC, Low CCC obligor's capacity to meetits financial commitments is extremely weak and is dependent on favorable economic, operating, and financial circumstances. Credit Suisse's rating opinionsdo not necessarily correlate with those of the rating agencies.


17/17

References in this report to Credit Suisse include all of the subsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse AG operating under its investment banking division. For more information on ourstructure, please use the following link: https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/.This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction wheresuch distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Credit Suisse AG or its affiliates (CS) to any registration or licensingrequirement within such jurisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to CS. None of the material, nor its content, nor anycopy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of CS. All trademarks, service marks and logosused in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of CS or its affiliates.

The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for anyparticular investor. CS will not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report maynot be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this reportconstitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwiseconstitutes a personal recommendation to you. CS does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note inparticular that the bases and levels of taxation may change.Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS makes no representation as to their accuracy orcompleteness. CS accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of li ability does not apply to the extent that such liabilityarises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CS. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. CS may have issued, and mayin the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions,views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and CS is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report.CS may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities referred to in this report, perform services for or solicit businessfrom such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition,it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. CS may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering ofsecurities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months,significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment. Additional information is, subject to duties of confidentiality, available on request.Some investments referred to in this report will be offered solely by a single entity and in the case of some investments solely by CS, or an associate of CS or CS may be the only market

maker in such investments.Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgement at its original date of publication by CS and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and incomefrom any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that mayhave a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility,effectively assume this risk.Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding andassuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot andforward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing astructured product should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.Some investments discussed in this report may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when thatinvestment is realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, insuch circumstances, you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make theinvestment may be used as part of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments, similarly it may provedifficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of CS, CS has not reviewed any such siteand takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CSs own website material) is provided solely for yourconvenience and information and the content of any such website does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or

CSs website shall be at your own risk.This report is issued and distributed in Europe (except Switzerland) by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England, which is regulated in theUnited Kingdom by The Financial Services Authority (FSA). This report is being distributed in Germany by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited Niederlassung Frankfurt am Mainregulated by the Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht ("BaFin"). This report is being distributed in the United States and Canada by Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC; inSwitzerland by Credit Suisse AG; in Brazil by Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse (Brasil) S.A; in Mexico by Banco Credit Suisse (Mxico), S.A. (transactions related to the securitiesmentioned in this report will only be effected in compliance with applicable regulation); in Japan by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited, Financial Instruments Firm, Director-General ofKanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 66, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Securities Investment Advisers

Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association; elsewhere in Asia/ Pacific by whichever of the following is the appropriately authorised entity in the relevant jurisdiction: CreditSuisse (Hong Kong) Limited, Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited, Credit Suisse Securities (Thailand) Limited, Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Credit Suisse AG,Singapore Branch, and elsewhere in the world by the relevant authorised affiliate of the above. Research on Taiwanese securities produced by Credit Suisse AG, Taipei Branch has beenprepared by a registered Senior Business Person . Research provided to residents of Malaysia is authorised by the Head of Research for Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, to whomthey should direct any queries on +603 2723 2020.This research may not conform to Canadian disclosure requirements.In jurisdictions where CS is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will varyfrom jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. Non-U.S. customers wishingto effect a transaction should contact a CS entity in their local jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only bycontacting a representative at Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC in the U.S.This material is not for distribution to retail clients and is directed exclusively at Credit Suisse's market professional and institutional clients. Recipients who are not market professional orinstitutional investor clients of CS should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanationof its contents. This research may relate to investments or services of a person outside of the UK or to other matters which are not regulated by the FSA or in respect of which theprotections of the FSA for private customers and/or the UK compensation scheme may not be available, and further details as to where this may be the case are available upon request inrespect of this report.CS may provide various services to US municipal entities or obligated persons ("municipalities"), including suggesting individual transactions or trades and entering into such transactions.

Any services CS provides to municipalities are not viewed as advice within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. CS isproviding any such services and related information solely on an arms length basis and not as an advisor or fiduciary to the municipality. In connection with the provision of the any suchservices, there is no agreement, direct or indirect, between any municipality (including the officials, management, employees or agents thereof) and CS for CS to provide advice to themunicipality. Municipalities should consult with their financial, accounting and legal advisors regarding any such services provided by CS. In addition, CS is not acting for direct or indirectcompensation to solicit the municipality on behalf of an unaffiliated broker, dealer, municipal securities dealer, municipal advisor, or investment adviser for the purpose of obtaining orretaining an engagement by the municipality for or in connection with Municipal Financial Products, the issuance of municipal securities, or of an investment adviser to provide investmentadvisory services to or on behalf of the municipality.Copyright 2011 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on whichinvestment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments.When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporatebonds) from CS as a seller you will be requested to pay purchase price only

Documents

CS China Commodity Report 20111122