Crop livestock intensification in the face of climate change

Study sites

Fast track site

NKAYI

M A T E B E L E L A N D S O

U T H

M A T E B E L E L A N D N O R T H

M A S H O N A L A N D C E N T R A L

M A S H O N A L A N D W E S T

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A L

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S T

M A S V I N G O

M A

N I C

A L

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M I D

L A N

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HARARE

BU LA WAYO

NKAYIDISTRICT

VIIIIX

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XIIIXIV XV

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District Boundary

Ward Boundary

Village Boundary

Research Wards

II Ward Name

EXPLANATION

0 20km

Site selection:

Southern Africa

Village selection:

8 villages

Distance from markets and roads

Village level surveys:

Focus group discussions

~ 30 farmers of different wealth, gender

and age per each village (n=24)

Household surveys:

Quantitative interviews

20 households per village, stratified by

wealth (n=160)

Farm Systems Characteristics

1. Population and strata Population: 160 HH (20HH per 8 villages) in Nkayi, South West Zimbabwe

Strata: Ownership of ruminants (TLU)

2. Mixed crop livestock sub-systems Maize and other crops: Grain and residues Cattle and other livestock: Milk, draft power, manure, milk

3. Crop, livestock and outcome components Production: Maize grain and residues, cattle milk and meat Gains and losses: Net returns on maize, other crops, cattle, other livestock

Herd size Thresholds (TLU) % household

No/few ruminants 0-0.49 29.4

Small herd 0.5-5.4 41.3

Large herd >5.4 29.4

Integrated crop-livestock systems

Soil fertility

Feed

shortages

Food security

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Pro

babili

ty o

f exceedence (

%)

% grain requirement met

Control

Micro-dose

Mz_muc

100%

Feed gap analysis

Monthly feed supply (pasture, green & crop residues, red)

versus feed demand (black line) for an example household

Base climate Future climate

Feed gap analysis is translated into livestock cost/benefits:

- Milk and meat production in case of feed surplus

- Costs for stock feed in case of feed shortage

From feed gaps to livestock cost/benefits Feed gap

analysis is

translated into

livestock

cost/benefits:

- Milk and meat

production in

case of feed

surplus

- Costs for

stock feed in

case of feed

shortage

% change is used to calculate future livestock livestock cost/benefits based on observed data:

cost/benefit_future = cost/benefit_observed * %change

where %change = (modelled_future - modelled_historic)/modelled_historic

milk meat concentrates

base future base future base future

HH id kg kg % change kg kg % change kg kg % change

43102 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 685 1448 111%

43104 786 594 -24% 79 59 -24% 793 1388 75%

43107 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 685 1448 111%

43119 1296 1092 -16% 130 109 -16% 394 923 134%

43120 3542 2970 -16% 354 297 -16% 1136 2664 134%

43202 0 0

43203 1248 784 -37% 125 78 -37% 4929 6328 28%

43204 0 0

43205 212 110 -48% 21 11 -48% 1665 1979 19%

43206 1968 1698 -14% 197 169 -14% 490 1208 147%

43207 972 834 -14% 97 83 -14% 279 664 138%

43208 1008 888 -12% 101 89 -12% 180 497 176%

… … … … … … … … … …

BENEFITS COSTS

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

0 50 100

S2a S2b S2c S3

Gain/loss diagram for each stratum from the TOA-MD

analysis

$/yr

Household modelling: APSFarm

• Rodriguez, D., Cox, H., deVoil, P., Power, B. 2012. A whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia. Ag. Systems

• Rodriguez D, deVoil P, Power B, Cox H, Crimp S, Meinke H (2011) The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example. Field Crops Res. 124, 157-170.

• Power, B., Rodriguez, D., deVoil, P., Harris, G., Payero, J., 2011. A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems. Field Crop Res. 124, 171-179.

LivSim (Rufino et al., 2008)

APSFarm-LivSim Relevant interventions

Profits Risks Sustainability Food security

Livestock No livestock Livestock

Own and hired labour Labour constrained

Less land constrained Land constrained

More educated No educated

Potential production

Ma

ize

ha

rve

ste

d

APSFarm-LivSim simulation

Expected outputs

• Detailed description of farming systems and developed

crop-livestock management practices relevant to different

household typologies

• Interactions and synergies of increased diversity and

integration (agro-ecological and economic opportunities)

and their contribution to reduce risk and increase system

resilience explored through modelling