Critical Thinking a to Lin Presentation

7/27/2019 Critical Thinking a to Lin Presentation

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Jackson NickersonFrahm Family Professor of Organization and Strategy

Brookings Senior Scholar in Governance Studies

Associate Dean and Director of Brookings Executive Education

Welcome to the

GO!Program:

Critical Thinkingand

Impactful

Communications

GO!Program Agenda

Your expectations and my goalsFreemark Abby WineryWhy isnt critical thinking easy?Improving critical thinking

I2 process and informal processes for formulation Elements of inquiry Four categories of intellectual standards Disposition

Professors Argyres and Dunkin will continue with the restof the course.


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Your expectations and my goals

What expectations do you have about Critical Thinkingand Impactful Communications?

What are the indicators for a successful course?My goals are

for you to learn more from Olins MBA program than studentslearn in other programs.

for you to out think MBAs from other programs. for you to out perform job applicants from other programs. for you to develop out of the box thinking skills that will allow

you to excel in your career.

I dare you to take full responsibility to transform yourthinking and change your life for ever.

Freemark Abbey

What is the situation?What decision does Mr. Jaeger have to make?How would you advise him?Vote!How do you know that you did a good job advising him?Take a few moments to talk with a partner next to you

discover and evaluate their thinking process.


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Why critical thinking?

Modern management practices revolve around makingdecisions, often collectively.

What makes for a good business decision? How do you make decisions now? How do you think you should be making decisions?

At the Olin Business School we believe that criticalthinking underpins great decision-making.

Great critical thinking is sufficiently rare that you can differentiateyourselves IF you invest in continuously improving your thinking.


It is a focal skill desired by the best employers. Procter & Gamble: Features of our Problem Solving Test include three

types of questions which require critical thinking and analytical skills

Goldman Sachs: they foster creativity, critical thinking and self-reliance

Deloitte: proven analytical and critical thinking skills. Citigroup MBAs with concentration inMarketing, Analytics, or

General Mgt; 3 to 5 years of relevant work experience; Demonstrated

leadership; Critical thinking.

J&J: competencies required forHuman resources leadership,including: Strategic Contribution Business acumen, Critical thinking,

Drive for results.

Bank of America: proficiencies in critical thinking, leadership, businessacumen, and relationship building.

Dell as critical thinking...


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Top skill gap in todays workforce is critical thinking Recent skill gap study by UMSL of 320 St. Louis employers

President Obamas Council of Economic Advisorsconcluded the top worker need is

critical thinking and problem solving.Olin Business School advanced from the middle to top of

the pack in employment statistics 90-days after

graduation for the top 50 MBA programs.

Why isnt critical thinking easy?

You will face different kinds of change challenges:

Easy

Moderate(need management)

Hard

Moderate(need creativity)

Complexity of

challenge

Simple(few moving parts)

Complex(Many moving parts)

Structuredness

of challengeStructured(routine, done before)

Ill-structured(Novel, first time)


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Why isnt critical thinking easy?

Ill-defined, ill-structured, messy complex problems aredifficult to solve.

As MBAs, these are the problems you are hired to solve.Solving such problems involves cognitive, social, and

emotional elements.

These elements conspire to: limit the search for problem formulations, which can lead to

solving the wrong problem.

limit the search for solutions, which can lead to inferior decisions. block out disconfirming evidence that could help you overcome

these limitations. generate poor decision-making.

Branches of critical thinking

Logical reasoning

Comprehensively

formulating andovercoming

thinking traps

LaunchInquiry


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Common thinking traps

Information trap Information sampling (usually found in teams)

Focusing only on information held in common limits andnarrows alternatives

Knowledge traps Framing bias

Accepting and using a narrow approach or description of thesituation or issue narrows alternatives

Drawing conclusions based on how data or questions arepresented limits alternatives

Anchoring Relying heavily on a past reference or on one trait or piece ofinformation when making decisions narrows alternatives

More common thinking traps

Motivation traps Propensity to jump to solutions

Economizing on thinking time reduces exploration ofalternative problem formulations and solutions

Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions Confirmation bias

Searching for, criticizing, distorting, or dismissing informationto maintain or strengthen existing beliefs narrows alternatives

Not seeking for evidence to disconfirm an hypothesis orbelief locks in previously stated solutions

Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions


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More common thinking traps

Motivation trap (continued) Self-serving and self-justification biases

Evaluating ambiguous information in a way beneficial to yourinterests locks in previously stated solutions

Believing our own perceptions are accurate, realistic, andunbiased locks in previously stated solutions

Increases with self-confidence narrowing alternatives Ego locks individuals into solutions

Note the role of ego in triggering motivational traps.

Why are cognitive biases important?

Can you identify any traps in your partners thinking?

Propensity to jump to solutionsFraming biasAnchoring biasConfirmation biasSelf-serving biasSelf-justification bias

Prevalence Impact

Code with: None, Some, Alotbe prepared to explain your coding


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How did your partner do? Did you perceive any biases?How prevalent are these biases in business and society?Biases trap us. We all suffer from them.Biases erode the quality of decision-making.Likelihood of biases increases with complexity and

messiness of problem or question posed.

Unfortunately, simply knowing about cognitive biases isinsufficient for us to overcome them.

Bias (and hence traps) are more severe with educationand confidence.

What would Blinkby Malcolm Gladwell have to say?

Why are cognitive biases important?

What might you be thinking?

I dont suffer from these biases. When was the last time that you jumped to a solution before

spending time to formulate an issue problem?

Have you ever blamed others without first blaming yourself?I got into Olin. Isnt my critical thinking good enough?I thought all I needed to know was the content of Olin

courses to get a good job.

I thought all I needed for a good job is good grades.How will employers know that I am good at critical

thinking?

How will faculty improve my critical thinking?


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Critical Thinking@Olin

Diving into the specifics

Intelligent thinkers

Sternberg et al. (1981) synthesized researchcharacterizing people who are believed to be intelligent

thinkers. Intelligent thinkers:

Reason systematically Solve problems well Think in a logical way Deploy a good vocabulary Make use of a rich stock of information Remain focused on their goals Display intelligence in practical as well as academic ways


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In contrast

Perkins (1995) summarized research on individuals whoare not considered to be intelligent thinkers. These

attributes are:

Hasty impulsive, little deep processing in examining alternatives

Narrow assumptions not challenged, points of view not examined

Fuzzy careless, imprecise, full of complications

Sprawlinggeneral disorganization, fail to advance or conclude

What is critical thinking?

Typical definition: Critical thinking is thinking explicitly aimed at asking and

answering questions with well-founded judgment, utilizing

appropriate evaluation standards.

Now for a more complicated definition


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What is critical thinking?

An exceptional critical thinker: Probes from multiple points of view, understanding the purpose of each

perspective, to comprehensively formulate a problem clearly andprecisely with appropriate relevance, depth, breadth, and significance.

Identifies concepts to help formulate problems as well as solve themand uses concepts to identify, gather, assess, and interpret relevantinformation.

Is evenhanded and ethical in approaching problems and developingsolutions, recognizing assumptions, implications, and practicalconsequences.

Draws conclusions or creates solutions to fully address the complexityof the situation and evaluates long-run consequences looking for waysto mitigate negative effects.

Is attuned to the possibilities of individual and group biases and takessteps to avoid or mitigate them.

Communicates clearly, precisely, accurately, and logically with others infiguring out solutions to complex problems.

Critical thinking is self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, andself-corrective thinking.

What is Critical Thinking@Olin?

Critical Thinking@Olin is comprised of four components Processes

are necessary to avoid biases that undermine thinking andproblem formulation and represent the vital ingredient that

often is missing in critical thinking.

Elements span categories of consideration for critical thinking.

Standards help you evaluate the quality of your thinking.

Disposition and Reflection explains that you are solely responsible for your thinking and

suggests how you can continuously improve your thinking.


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Processes for inquiry for


Comprehensively formulate before solving

Overcoming bias and ego

Some of the greatest sources of biases come fromjumping to a solution and ego.

Individuals often jump to a solution/decision and by doing somake a mental commitment.

This commitment creates a powerful force that leads to many ofthe biases that contaminate thinking and lead to politics.

What can you think of to remove this bias?Einstein once noted with respect to science, although it

is likely true for business endeavors as well, that,

the formulation of a problem is often more essential than itssolution


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Processes ofCritical Thinking@Olin

Processes can be mechanisms for overcoming biases. Only a few basic processes will be discussed in the course. We will focus in a basic individual inquiry (I2) process. It is important to note that process-based outcomes are sensitive

to even minor variations in:

LanguageAttitude/atmosphere Process steps sequence

Facilitation skills are especially important when implementing acollective thinking process.

Individual Inquiry (I2) Process

Forestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoa

decisionorsolu6on

DivergentThinking

LaunchInquiry

Problem finding, framing, formulating Problem solving

DivergentThinking

ConvergentThinking

Reflec6on

Decision

ChooseProblem

set ofquestions

chosento be

addressed


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A few definitions

Inquiry is a process of (hopefully critical) thinking.Finding is the search for, discovery of, awareness of, or

choosing of something to be addressed.

Framing is the set of indicators, symptoms, data, etc.that indicate or are considered part of a problem.

Formulation is the set of root causes or the core issueto be addressed.

Divergent thinking expands alternatives, perspectives,and possibilities.

Convergent thinking reduces alternatives, perspectives,and possibilities often with respect to criteria.

Lets return to Freemark Abbey

Compare and contrast your experiences To what extent did you and your partner explore alternative

formulations of the problem?

Did you formulate the situation comprehensively? How much time did you and your partner spend formulating the

problem compared to solving the problem?

When attempting to solve the problem, did you explorealternative solution approaches?

When you arrived at a solution, to what extent did you reflect onthe formulation, solution approach, and your decision?


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Divergent thinking

Informal ways to expand framing What data, indicators, symptoms etc. are relevant or correlated

to the symptom that launched the inquiry?

What else is happening at the same time/situation?Informal ways to expand formulation

Set aside the existing formulation and find another one. Before I get to a solution, what problem am I trying to solve. How can the conversation be expanded to consider other

perspectives or alternatives for formulating the problem?

Is there an overarching formulation that encapsulates others?Are short-run as well as long-run issues considered? Have I formulated the situation comprehensively?

Informal formulation process

YouSet aside

Find another

All symptomsAll causes

Expand theConversation

What problem are we solving?

OverarchingFormulation


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Individual Inquiry with

Informal Problem Formulation

Forestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoa

decisionorsolu6on

DivergentThinking

LaunchInquiry

Problem finding, framing, formulating Problem solving

DivergentThinking

ConvergentThinking

Reflec6on

Decision




Set asideFind another

Problem formulation in business


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Key insights from I2 process

Finding, framing, and formulating problems Forestall jumping to a decision, inference, or conclusion Probe and ask questions to comprehensively formulate Spend about half the time available to you formulatingIt is better to have an incomplete or approximate answer/

decision to the right problem than to solve completely and

precisely the wrong problem.

What makes for a good problem formulation?A good formulation will be defined tomorrow after a several

more concepts are reviewed.

What more formal approaches to problem formulation(and critical thinking more generally) are available?

Eight elements of


PPPICACC

A more formal approach to formulation


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Eight elements of critical thinking

Each point of view can see challenges differently.Each actor or constituency can differ in their purposes.Problems and challenges can be formulated many ways.All reasoning is based on data, information, & evidence.All reasoning is expressed through, and shaped by,

concepts and ideas.

All reasoning is based on assumptions.All reasoning contains inferences or interpretations by

which we draw conclusions and give meaning to data.

All reasoning leads somewhere or has implications andconsequences.

Points of view

Point of view describes how people perceives a situationbased on their information and knowledge.

Seek out and identify all relevant and significant points ofview for the situation being considered.

Be comprehensive in identifying all points of view. Seek other points of view and identify their, as well as your own,

strengths as well as weaknesses.

Clearly and precisely identify your own point of view and how itdiffers from others.

Strive to be evenhanded in evaluating all points of view.


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Purposes

A purpose reflects goals, objectives, and preferences(i.e., motivations) of individuals and organizations.

For each point of view understand what you and otherswant to accomplish.

What are the various actors purposes and objectives inaddressing the situation?

Can you state their purposes clearly and precisely?Are some purposes significant and primary while others are

secondary?

How do purposes and objectives shape both point of view andtheir formulation of the challenge?

Are you evenhanded and ethical as you consider the full rangeof purposes?

Problems

A problem is the formulation of a challenge to be solved.Formulate the challenge comprehensively.

How can you develop multiple formulations by considering the issue from

multiple points of view?

express issue in several ways to clarify meaning and scope? distinguish questions with definitive answers from those that

require opinion?

Have you formulated the question with the appropriaterelevance, depth, breadth, and significance?

Try formulating more broadly as well as more narrowly. Seek a deeper formulation. Seek significant and relevant aspects not yet formulated.


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P

P

P

PP

PPP

P

P

P

POV

POV

POV POV

POV

POVPOV

POV

POV

Information, data, & evidence

Definition: What information do you need to formulate the question? What information are you using in coming to your conclusion? What experience have you had to support your claims?

Guidelines: Restrict formulations/solutions to those supported by evidence. Search for information that supports and opposes your position. Make sure you have gathered necessary/sufficient information.

Evaluation: Do you cite relevant evidence, experiences, and/or information

essential to the issue?

Is the information accurate and precise? Do you address the complexities of the issue?


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Concepts and ideas

Definition: What is the main idea or concepts used to understand the

situation to make a decision?

Can you explain this idea clearly and precisely?Guidelines:

Identify key concepts and explain them clearly. Consider alternative concepts or alternative definitions of

concepts.

Make sure you are using concepts with care and precision.Evaluation:

Do you clearly identify the key concepts?

Are you presenting and using these concepts precisely? Is the main concept relevant? Are other concepts relevant?

Assumptions

Definition: What are you taking for granted? What assumptions have led you to your conclusion?

Guidelines: Clearly identify assumptions and justify them. Consider how your assumptions are shaping the various points

of view.

Evaluation: Do you show a sensitivity to what you are taking for granted or

assuming? Do you use questionable assumptions without addressing

problems which might be inherent in those assumptions?


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Conclusions

Definition: What decision or answer did you reach? Is your answer sufficiently deep, broad, and comprehensive?

Guidelines: Infer only what the evidence implies. Check inferences for their consistency with each other. Identify assumptions that lead you to your inferences. Insure that your conclusions are robust.

Evaluation: Do you develop a line of reasoning explaining well how you

arrived at your main conclusions?

Consequences

Definition: What are the potential long-run implications of your decision? What are the implications if you take your answer to its logical

conclusion?

Guidelines: Trace the implications and consequences that follow from your

reasoning.

Search for negative as well as positive implications. Consider all possible consequences.

Evaluation: Do you show a sensitivity to the implications and consequences

of the position you are taking?


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PPPICACC (pronouncedPickaxe)

Points of viewPurposesProblemsInformationConceptsAssumptionsConclusionsConsequences

. Use a PPPICACC for difficult problems!

Points of view Purposes Problem

Information Concept Assumption

Conclusions Consequences


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P

P

P

PP

PPP

P

P

P

Jaegher

Other

Owners

Cust.

Lead

Cust.

Suppliers

Whole-

salers

Retailers

Wine

Maker

Comp.

Max short-run profitability? Max long-term profits? Maximize long term growth? Get botrytis every year Position brand as distinctive,

differentiated, and high

prestige?

Insure availability? Insure quality?

Is their an overarching formulation?

YouSet aside

Find another



Rule of Three



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I2 Process with PPPICACC

Reflec6onForestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoadecisionorsolu6on

Consequences

Conclusions

Informa6on

DecisionConcepts

Assump6ons

Purpose

ProblemPoint

ofView

Informa6on

Concepts

Assump6ons

ChooseProblem

set ofquestions

chosento be

addressed

Launch

Inquiry

Critical Thinking@Olin Monograph

Booklet and othercollateral

How can the bookletbe used?


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Homework reminder

Due tomorrow morning at the BEGINNING of class. Write a consulting letter to William Jaeger offering advice. 300 words or less (no more than 300) Keep your write-up anonymous. You will electronically submit

and assess your write-ups tomorrow in class.

Bring an electronic copy of your write-up to class.Bring your COMPUTER TO CLASS ON Thursday and

be sure you can connect wirelessly to the Blackboard.

Note, Blackboard supports only a few browsers.Use your Collaborative Case Preparation Time to

discuss what you learned about I2.

Summary

Why critical thinking?What is critical thinking?What are the central traps and biases that limit and

narrow thinking?

What is the basic process forCritical Thinking@Olin?What are the elements of critical thinking and why are

they useful?

What are the main resources for teaching CriticalThinking@Olin?


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IF you remember only on thing

Formulate comprehensively before solving

Documents

Critical Thinking a to Lin Presentation