Cook - Framework for adaptation and mitigation

Framework for Adapta/on and Mi/ga/on

Simon Cook, Andy Jarvis, Charlo=e Lau,

Julian Ramirez

[[SELECTED SLIDES]]

How /mes have changed 2002

IPCC vision s/ll a ma=er of debate: Economist leader: ‘GCC may not be so bad because: (a) Some places are just too darn cold and (b) People like to go to warm places for holiday’

Adapta/on seen as a [agricultural] technical fix

CGIAR ac/vi/es focussed on applying exis/ng technologies to a new problem

Concepts of resilience or SESs a li=le raw

No clarity about ‘who to talk to?’

2010

Adapta/on understood as vital Mul/-‐disciplinarity accepted as

‘normal’ Acceptance of need to

understand socio-‐ecological systems

S/ll no clarity : ‘who to talk to?’

Framework for Adapta/on

A.  Hazard How much clearer is the change?

B.  Adapta/on What are the types of op/ons open to agriculture ?

C.  Mi/ga/on What role mi/ga/on?

D.  Impediments If it’s such a great idea, how come people don’t adapt?

E.  Framework for targe/ng ac/on Looking for specific behaviours, ins/tu/ons, ac/ons...

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A Hazard

A. Hazard: Temperature

A. Hazard: Temperature

Impact summary •  IGP

–  Current situa/on •  “Bread basket” of South Asia, emphasis on alterna/ng wheat-‐rice systems •  Overexploita/on and pollu/on of water resources, esp. groundwater •  Main water sources = SW monsoon and Himalayan rivers •  Strong contrast between ins/tu/onally-‐supported, highly-‐produc/ve, drought-‐

threatened West IGP and low-‐input, less-‐produc/ve, flood-‐prone East IGP –  Projected changes

•  Increased temperatures will lead to crop losses, especially for dominant wheat crop •  Some uncertainty/disagreement re: precipita/on, but rainfall events will likely become

more extreme – means flooding during monsoons, maybe drought during winter •  Reducing Himalayan glaciers – water stress long-‐term

–  Adapta/on Pathways? •  Addressing the yield gap in Eastern IGP may be key to mee/ng future regional food

demand •  Water: Should move towards regula/on of groundwater, agreements over Indus water,

and adapta/on of Zero Till and other water conserva/on measures.

•  West Africa –  Current situa/on

•  Low produc/vity •  Widespread land degrada/on •  Water stress •  Drama/c fluctua/ons in rainfall over mul/-‐decadal /me scales, ENSO events

–  Projected changes •  Robust predic/ons re: temperature rise •  BUT precipita/on models are very uncertain – disagreement on whether WA will be generally we=er or drier, though some consensus that extremes will increase

•  Sea level rises will harm coastal agriculture •  Shorter growing periods in the Sahel

•  East Africa –  Current situa/on

•  Extreme heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-‐ecosytems, livelihoods and environmental challenges

•  Rainfall is rela/vely predictable •  (Rainfed) freshwater supply already a poli/cal hot potato

–  Projected changes •  No full consensus re: precipita/on, though majority say rainfall will increase and become more extreme

•  Glaciers will melt – water stress on fisheries, wetlands, shallow rivers •  Higher temp + precip means highland regions will experience both higher incidence of malaria, AND be=er suitability (longer growing seasons, higher yield), esp. of cereals

•  But overall, region-‐wide food produc/on losses (excep/on may be Kenya)

-‐25.00

-‐20.00

-‐15.00

-‐10.00

-‐5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal

Crop

Loss/Gain

Countries

GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Oats

Potato

Bean, Common

Wheat, common

Barley

Maize

Cacao

Sorghum (low al/tude)

Perennial soybean

-‐25.00

-‐20.00

-‐15.00

-‐10.00

-‐5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Burkina Faso Ghana Mali Tanzania Uganda

Crop

Loss/Gain

Countries

GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries

Oats

Potato

Bean, Common

Wheat, common

Barley

Maize

Cacao


Perennial soybean

-‐30.00

-‐20.00

-‐10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

Crop

Loss/Gain

States

GCC Crop Impacts for "IGP" Countries

Oats

Potato

Bean, Common

Wheat, common

Barley

Maize

Cacao


Perennial soybean

-‐40.00

-‐30.00

-‐20.00

-‐10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

Crop

Loss/Gain

States

GCC Crop Impacts for "RIN" States

Oats

Potato

Bean, Common

Wheat, common

Barley

Maize

Perennial soybean

Cacao


B Adapta/on

Adapta/on process in general

/me

Accept need for change

Assess exis/ng path

Perceive changed future

Change

In the ideal world In prac/ce

Myopia

Uncertainty

Disagreement

Incapacity

B. Adapta/on – basic op/ons

Risk avoidance

•  Change element –  Heat, drought tolerant crops,

livestock

•  Change system –  Phasing, /ming

•  Move –  Upslope –  Migrate

Risk management

•  Engineer –  Irriga/on, flood protec/on

•  Hedging –  Spread / reduce investment

•  Risk sharing –  Insurance

C Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on

Risk management

Poten&al examples: ecosystem service payments – risk manages by offering immediate financial capital/relief, mi&gates by reducing emissions, and adapts by crea&ng incen&ves/opportuni&es to diversity away from just agriculture

Progressive adaptaGon

MiGgaGon

CASE 1: Transi/on (win-‐win)

Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on

Risk management

(coping) ?

Example: subsidies that would lower emissions and give farmers extra financial capital to invest in higher produc&on (risk management and mi&ga&on, but not significant long-‐term adap&on strategy)

Progressive adaptaGon

(transforma/onal change)

CASE 2: Disjointed adapta/on (win-‐win)

Mi/ga/on -‐ Adapta/on

Risk management (coping) Progressive adaptaGon

(transforma/ve change)

MiGgaGon

Trade-‐offs

?

e.g.) Taxing fer&lizers and pes&cides –mi&gates at farmer’s cost

Trade-‐offs e.g.) Occupa&onal change from agricultural to industrial work– farmer “adapts” at poten&al cost to environment

CASE 3: Disjointed adapta/on (no win-‐win)

D Impediments to change

•  Uncertainty –  Ignorance: ‘Didn’t know you cared’ – Variability: ‘Knew you cared, but not how much’

•  Cogni/ve disjoint –  ‘Not my problem’

•  Lack of mo/ve –  ‘Maybe my problem, put it with the others..’

•  Lack of capacity –  ‘I know and I care, but nothing I can do’

D Impediments to change

•  Uncertainty – Temporal, metric, structural uncertainty

•  Cogni/ve disjoint – Transla/onal uncertain/es (law poli/cs science farming family

•  Lack of mo/ve – Who really values the ecosystem services?

Gross National Income

Agriculture contribution to GDP (%)

Most African basins here

Capacity to adapt


Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ....Problems...


Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ... Solu/ons

Basics need

Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for

sustainability

Increasing Role for Institutions Providing basics

Protecting existing support Invest in agricultural basics

Big invest in agric. Resource-sharing & protection

Developing pathways out of farming

Benefit-sharing (trading) Demand management

Supply-chain management

E. Framework

•  On the basis of exis/ng knowledge of likely impacts.....

•  Look for behaviours that inhibit/support change -‐a=ributable to GCC

•  Scan for insGtuGons – the people doing the changing

•  Look for ‘instruments’ of change-‐ things that will accelerate adapta/on & mi/ga/on –  Insight, technologies, policy, law...

•  Iden/fy how science will support /improve the instruments

E. Framework: Iden/fying targets

ProblemaGc behaviours

InsGtuGons Instruments Science

Uncertainty

Cogni/ve problems

Lack of mo/ve for change

Lack of capacity




Uncertainty Ignorance

Cannot manage variability

Families

Farmer organiza/ons

Supply chain actors

Municipali/es

Ministries

Norms

Regula/ons

Policy (e.g. food, water security) Law

Valua/on

Micro-‐finance Micro-‐ins

Supply chains

Situa/on analysis

Scenario analysis

Technology

System analysis/design

Cogni/ve problems

Unable to agree


Short-‐termism

Local only

Lack of capacity Can’t invest Can’t organize




Uncertainty Ignorance

Cannot manage variability

Families

Farmer organiza/ons

Supply chain actors

Municipali/es

Ministries

Norms

Regula/ons

Policy (e.g. food, water security) Law

Valua/on

Micro-‐finance Micro-‐ins

Supply chains

Situa/on analysis

Scenario analysis

Technology

System analysis/design

Cogni/ve problems

Unable to agree


Short-‐termism

Local only

Lack of capacity Can’t invest Can’t organize

Linking components to enable Ecosystem services

Final word: Why a framework is needed •  CP Water and food

–  Started 2002. •  Big fanfare, simple story ‘More crop per drop’. •  Funding shornall; strategic work suspended. Many disconnected projects.

–  2003/4 CGIAR Science Council: ‘Get focus’ –  2004/5 Strategic research (BFPs) ini/ated –  2007 Phase II planned –  2009 BFPs completed –  2010 Water & Soil MP proposed. CPWF not leading it.

•  Lessons?

Documents

Cook - Framework for adaptation and mitigation