Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Update Update

Kyle L. OlsenKyle L. Olsen

North Asia Regional Aviation Safety TeamNorth Asia Regional Aviation Safety TeamBeijing - May 2006 Beijing - May 2006

We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hull loss accidentsper year

Hull loss accident rate*

Airplanes in service32,495

2021

Departures, Millions

18,621

2001

Boeing 12,351

Business as usual

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

*Accident, Airplanes in Service and Departure data are estimated through 31 December 2004

Worldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsWorldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsClassified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004

Total Hull Losses = 177

Number ofHull Losses

73

27

12

FuelExhaustio

n

Controlledflight into

terrain

Loss ofcontrolin flight

Landing Refusedtakeoff

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

5

On-GroundMisc.

9

Landing, Loss of Control,and CFIT Hull Losses

120 or 67%

Worldwide Airline FatalitiesWorldwide Airline Fatalities

Number of fatal accidents (78 total)

2122 2 22 1

Number of Fatalities

1,999

1,599

420231

339225

Controlledflight into

terrain

Loss ofcontrolin flight

Mid-Air

collision

StructureIn-Flightfire

Fuel tankexplosion

Total fatalities – 5,828

CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities 3,598 or 62 %

Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004

15

136

Landing

CAST Organizational CAST Organizational

StructureStructure

CAST GoalsCAST Goals

Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007accident rate by 80% by 2007

Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident ratecommercial aviation fatal accident rate

* Representing P&W and RR** Observer

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agendadevelop & implement a prioritized safety agenda

Industry

Commercial Aviation Safety Team

(CAST)

Government

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAO**JAATCCNATCA** NTSB**EASA

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of

study

• Data analyses

CAST

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Implementation

Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight

Into Terrain Approach and Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

APPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

Completed

CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan31 Completed Safety Enhancements31 Completed Safety Enhancements• Safety Culture Safety Culture

• Maintenance Procedures Maintenance Procedures

• Flight Crew TrainingFlight Crew Training

• Air Traffic Controller TrainingAir Traffic Controller Training

• Uncontained Engine FailuresUncontained Engine Failures

• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)

• Standard Operating ProceduresStandard Operating Procedures

• Precision ApproachesPrecision Approaches

• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) SystemsMinimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems

• Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont.)CAST Safety Plan (cont.)

16 Committed Safety Enhancements16 Committed Safety Enhancements• Policies and ProceduresPolicies and Procedures

• Aircraft Design Aircraft Design

• Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)

• Runway Incursion PreventionRunway Incursion Prevention

• Precision Approaches (additional projects)Precision Approaches (additional projects)

8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

CASTCAST

Implementation Status Implementation Status

CAST Safety Plan - April 19, 2006

Complete66%

On Tgt13%

Late19%

In Question2%

316

9

1

47 Safety Enhancements

31 Complete

16 Underway

CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway

1

15.1

2

15.0

3

.5

4

1.1

5

.4

6

7.9

7

7.9

8

7.9

9

.8

10

16.4

11

3.4

12

5.3

13

.8

14

5.7

15

9.2

16

.7

17

0

18

1.5

19

0.1

20

3.6

21

1.5

23

7.4

24

10.6

25

6.0

26

2.3

27

8.8

28

5.0

29

1.9

30

2.8

31

12.2

32

0

34

0

39

0

40

0

46

1.6

47

1.2

49

1.5

50

2.6

53

2.7

52

0

51

0

55

1.7

59

0

60

1.5

78

0

84

.8

85

1.2

Status

Chart

COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE

JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

Complete except for measurement

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.4

Europe0.7

China0.5

Middle East2.7

Africa12.3

Asia1.7

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.*2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available

World0.74*

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.4

Europe0.7

China0.5

Middle East2.7

Africa12.3

Asia1.7

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2

C.I.S.1

CAST47 SEs30 complete17 in work73% reduction

PAASTCFIT and ALAR

JSSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction

ASETJust forming up

COSCAP CISJust starting

COSCAP NA, SA, SEA27 SEs in work60% reduction

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.*2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available

World0.74*

CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway

1

15.1

2

15.0

3

.5

4

1.1

5

.4

6

7.9

7

7.9

8

7.9

9

.8

10

16.4

11

3.4

12

5.3

13

.8

14

5.7

15

9.2

16

.7

17

0

18

1.5

19

0.1

20

3.6

21

1.5

23

7.4

24

10.6

25

6.0

26

2.3

27

8.8

28

5.0

29

1.9

30

2.8

31

12.2

32

0

34

0

39

0

40

0

46

1.6

47

1.2

49

1.5

50

2.6

53

2.7

52

0

51

0

55

1.7

59

0

60

1.5

78

0

84

.8

85

1.2

Status

Chart

COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE

JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

Complete except for measurement

Precision-Like Approach Precision-Like Approach ImplementationImplementation

“21“21stst Century Instrument Approaches” Century Instrument Approaches”

CAST Safety EnhancementsCAST Safety Enhancements

SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8

Worldwide FleetWorldwide Fleet• Classic airplanesClassic airplanes – typically equipped with – typically equipped with

electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS))GPS Navigation (FMS))

• Standard airplanesStandard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS)Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS)

• Advanced airplanesAdvanced airplanes – standard airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities)RNP capabilities)

Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8

• On NARAST Safety PlanOn NARAST Safety Plan

• SE-3, Vertical AnglesSE-3, Vertical Angles– Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for

Operators for Conducting Constant Operators for Conducting Constant decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non-decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non-precision approaches. (November precision approaches. (November 2004)2004)

Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8

• Not on NARAST Plan:Not on NARAST Plan:– SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope

Indicators (VGSI) at runway endsIndicators (VGSI) at runway ends– SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at

airports where older air carrier aircraft airports where older air carrier aircraft operateoperate

– SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and charting specifications for approach charting specifications for approach charts.charts.

Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 continuedcontinued

• Not on NARAST Plan:Not on NARAST Plan:– SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance

allowing reduced landing minimaallowing reduced landing minima– SE-8, Define the parameters for future SE-8, Define the parameters for future

installation of the xLS (laterally and installation of the xLS (laterally and vertically guided approach path) to vertically guided approach path) to runway ends not serviced by runway ends not serviced by Instrument Landing System (ILS)Instrument Landing System (ILS)

Implementation is Implementation is EssentialEssential

Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs)

1 January to 31 December 2004

Date Operator Aircraft LocationFata

l Phase

3 Jan FLASH AIRLINES 737-300SHARM EL-SHEIK, EGYPT 148 CLIMB

5 Jan AUSTRIAN A/L F-70 MUNCHEN, GERMANY 0 APPROACH

1 Mar PAKISTAN A/L A300 JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA 0 TAKEOFF

4 Mar AZOV AVIA CO. IL-76 BAKU, AZERBAIJAN 3 TAKEOFF

2 Apr AIR MEMPHIS 707-320 CAIRO, EGYPT 0 TAKEOFF

28 Apr CENTURION CARGO DC-10F BOGOTA, COLOMBIA 0 LANDING

18 May SILK WAY AIRLINE IL-76 UMURQI, CHINA 7 TAKEOFF

21 Jul AERO CALIFORNIA DC-9-14 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO 0 TAKEOFF

11 Aug AIR GUINEE EXPRE 737-200 SIERRA LEONE 0 TAKEOFF

28 Aug TRANSAIR CARGO Caravelle GISENYI, RWANDA 0 LANDING

8 Oct BIMAN BANGLEDESH F-28 SYLHET, BANGLEDESH 0 LANDING

14 Oct MK AIRLINES 747-200F HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA 7 TAKEOFF

7 Nov AIR ATLANTA 747-200F DUBAI, UAE 0 TAKEOFF

28 Nov KLM 737-400 BARCELONA, SPAIN 0 LANDING

30 Nov LION AIR MD-80SOLO CITY, INDONESIA 26 LANDING

Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (> 60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2005

Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal

8 January Aerorepublica MD-80 Cali, Colombia Landing 0

24 January Atlas Air B-747-200 Dusseldorf, Germany Landing 0

3 February Air West Cargo IL-76 Khartoum Approach 7

3 February Kam Air B-737-200 Kabul, Afghanistan Approach 104

19 March Race Cargo Airline B-707-300 Entebbe, Uganda Approach 0

23 March Airline Transport IL-76 Mwanza, Tanzania Takeoff 8

7 April ICARO Air F-28 Coca, Equador Landing 0

20 April Saha Air B-707-300 Tehran, Iran Landing 3

19 June Mahfooz Aviation B-707 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Landing 0

1 July Biman Bangladesh DC-10 Chittagong, Bangladesh Landing 0

2 August Air France A-340 Toronto, Canada Landing 0

14 August HELIOS Airways B-737-300 Grammatikos, Greece Enroute 121

16 August West Caribbean MD-82 Machiques, Venezuela Enroute 160

23 August TANS Peru Airlines B-737-200 Pucallpa, Peru Approach 45

5 Sept Mandala Airlines B-737-200 Medan-Polonia,Indonesia Takeoff 104

22 October Bellview Airlines B-737-200 Lissa, Nigeria Climb 117

31 October MIBA Aviation B-727 Kindu, DR Congo Landing 0

11 November Royal Airlines Cargo IL-76Khak-eShahidan, Afghanistan

Approach 8

10 December Sosoliso Airlines DC-9 Port Harcort, Nigeria Landing 109

Safety EnhancementSafety Enhancement IndicatorIndicator

1. Terrain Avoidance Warning 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)System (TAWS)

• Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in MSAW alerts

• Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)

4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)11,18)

• Percentage of operators who have adopted constant Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approachesangle approaches

• Continuous reduction in selected metricsContinuous reduction in selected metrics

21. ALAR Flight Deck 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)Type Designs (1-3)

• Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision heightdecision height

23. ALAR Flight Crew Training 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project– one project

• Continuous reduction in the number of busted Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gatesapproach gates

• Continuous reduction in altitude bustsContinuous reduction in altitude busts

27. LOC Policies and 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management Assessments and Management – one project– one project

• Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in placeassessment/management processes in place

• Continuous reduction in the number of operations Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systemssystems

• Percentage of operators with a process to include Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manualssafety information in manuals

Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics Examples

Moving ForwardMoving Forward

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents

Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide(2007 Implementation Values)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%To

tal

CFI

T

LOC

-I

SC

F-P

P

SC

F-N

P

ICE

Mid

air

FIR

E-N

I

FUE

L RI

AR

C

RE

US

OS

WS

TRW

AD

RM

OTH

ER

-BIR

D

Po

rtio

n o

f R

isk

Risk Eliminated

Risk Remaining

Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

Safety Plan DevelopmentSafety Plan Development

AccidentJSATS

Case studies

AccidentJSITS

Case studies

SafetyEnhancements

IncidentAnalysisProcess

JIMDATReview

EmergingRisk

ChangingRisk

DevelopEnhancements

& Metrics

AviationSystem

Changes

PresentIn MasterFactors

Yes

No

DemographicChanges

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

DevelopContributing

Factors(new or

emerging

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

MasterContributing

Factors

11-5-03 CAST-051R

FAST Hazards

CASTPlan

RecommendedPlan

Revision

PerformanceTo PlanReview

Non-PerformanceInformation

Metrics

Our Goal:Our Goal:Our Goal:Our Goal:Make Aviation Safer

by Reducing the Risk of an Accident

Thank you