Colliers Residential - Market Share - Q1- 2011

8/6/2019 Colliers Residential - Market Share - Q1- 2011

1/18

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIALREAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

May 2011

MarketShareFIRST QUARTER 2011


2/18

RST QUARTER 2011

WELCOME TO MarketShare 1

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2

OVERALL MARKET SUMMARY 3

MARKET SUMMARIES

Vancouver Downtown 4

Vancouver West 5

Vancouver East 6

Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7

Burnaby/New Westminster 8

North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9

Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10

Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11

Surrey Central/North Delta 12

South Surrey/White Rock 13

Cloverdale/Langley 14

WHAT TO WATCH 15

TABLE OF

CONTENTS


3/18

RST QUARTER 2011

n each o the last our editions o MarketShare ourVancouver residential team has shared their

observations with you regarding the impact Asian

demand is having on the real estate market in the

ower Mainland. Recently there has been much public

discussion regarding this trend and this talk has

ncluded calls or restrictions on oreign ownership o

eal estate in our province.

ets put the debate in context and look at the reasons Lower Mainland real

state is attractive not just to people rom Mainland China but to people

rom all over the world. Whether you are rom China, India, Europe, the

Middle East, or even rom the U.S., the Lower Mainland is a great place to

ve. We have created a community that celebrates diversity, is tolerant,

ccepting and inclusive and all in a naturally attractive setting. For the most

art home ownership is motivated by a desire to improve amily lie and in

many cases educate children in a great place. People rom all over the

world see what the Lower Mainland has become and seek connection with

ur culture, our community and our valuesand what better way to connect

han owning a home here.

ancouver and the Lower Mainland have moved well beyond being

ompared to other cities in Canada or to our neighbor to the south, Seattle.

ur reputation and global appeal puts us in the same category as New York,

ondon and other world class cities. These cities attract the world or a

ariety o reasons. It could be business, it could be culture, and it could be

the peoplewhatever the reason we are now experiencing what other

world class cities have experienced or years.

here also seems to be more myths than acts about Mainland Chinese

nvesting. This trend is certainly impacting single amily housing values in

ancouver - West and Richmond. However, it is not the driving orce

ehind all sales. For example, a number o the recent launches reported

arge numbers o Asian buyers. Yet a signifcant portion o these buyers are

ctually local residents not oreigners. That being said, oreign demand is

aving a positive impact on multi-amily sales and the debate will continue.

While restricting oreign ownership may curtail this demand it may also

have the unintended negative consequence o hindering the developme

o much needed new housing elsewhere in Vancouver. While debate is

healthy, restricting oreign investment will not only aect our real estat

market, development industry, housing supply and our economy it may

also damage how we are viewed in the world. Personally, Id rather liv

in a place that is envied and sought ater by people all over the world: a

place that is welcoming, accepting, tolerant, inclusive, multi cultural and

beautiul.

O course, aordability concerns remain in our market regardless o As

demand. Fortunately, we are home to one o the worlds most innovativdevelopment communities. I expect we will see innovations in product

and ownership structures that will address aordability and increase th

accessibility o buying real estate or everyone. Instead o restricting

oreign ownership to create more aordable real estate lets develop

innovations that address this true need.

As oreign interest in our local markets continues our teams continue t

be active in the Lower Mainland and in Mainland China, Hong Kong and

Singapore increasing our inrastructure and sta to represent Canadian

projects overseas. We also continue to host Vancouver and Toronto

developers in Asia and share with them what we are seeing and

experiencing in these markets. We are ortunate to have a large

inrastructure in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore al lowing us

approach these markets with insight and connections.

Finally, in this edition o MarketShare report you will note that 2011 has

already seen a number o successul launches in the Lower Mainland.

hope you enjoy our thoughts and insights and as always we welcome

your comments and opinions.

Greg Ashley

PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER,

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

WELCOME TO

MarketShare


4/18

RST QUARTER 2011

Urban Analytics (UAI) is the source or analyticalnterpretation o relevant real estate market data, trends

and strategic recommendations. Our client-ocused

ervice model determines the inormation required,

hen collects and interprets the data in a timely manner

nabling clients to make inormed strategic decisions.

rban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate

ata on the multi-amily residential real estate market in the Vancouver

ower Mainland.

he methodology used to collect the data was as ollows:

ENERAL PARAMETERS

ancouver Lower Mainland reers to the area rom West Vancouver to

Aldergrove. At the present time, we have excluded Abbotsord, Chilliwack,

nd Mission. And, given the ocus on the multi-amily market we have

xcluded single amily home sales rom our data collection eorts

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA NEW HOME SALES

AI takes a dynamic approach to collecting multi-amily new home sales

ata. The primary method used to collect inormation is a personal visit to

ach project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales

normation, UAI representatives engage on-site sales sta to determine

dditional relevant inormation such as incentive oerings, trac trends and

ctive buyer profles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is

efned as The per square oot sales range in which 75 percent o sales o this

roduct type occurred.

CONTEMPLATED MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA

UAI also continuously monitors new multi-amily developments being

contemplated in the various markets in the Lower Mainland to determin

the level o potential new supply in each area. For the purposes o the

MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various municipal planning

departments along with developers (and/or their representatives) o

proposed new developments to determine the anticipated timing o the

approval and marketing launch.

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA RESALE

The resale market provides an important barometer rom which to asse

demand and determine pricing or new homes projects. Accordingly, Uclosely monitors the resale market or multi-amily homes in order to

identiy trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the

breadth and depth o product or sale can create fndings that are less

than helpul to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends

studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at les

than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to

newer product (i.e. fve years or newer) would be more relevant to the

new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and

potentially skew the data towards a specifc type o product available in

small number o specifc buildings/projects. In all instances active salesrange quoted in tables is defned as The active sales range in which 75

percent o sales o this product type occurred.

We hope you fnd this aggregate data combined with Colliers

analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.

Michael Ferreira

PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.

Geoffrey Dzikowski

PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.

RESEARCH

Methodology


5/18

RST QUARTER 2011

As this is our fth edition o MarketShare we are now able compare this

uarter and subsequent quarters to prior years and communicate new insights

nd trends.

Sales o multi-amily residential real estate were brisk in the First Quarter o

2011. A total o 2,527 units were sold this past quarter, a dramatic 35 percent

ncrease rom the same period in 2010. And, this perormance was just 6

ercent shy o the most active quarter last year (Fourth Quarter). Last year,

First Quarter sales represented just 21 percent o total sales volume. I this

rend holds true this year total new sales could exceed 12,000 units.

New high profle projects in Metrotown and Vancouver - West help set the pace

upported by a repositioned project with impressive results in South East False

Creek. Strong absorptions in Richmond, Burnaby/New Westminster, Tri-Cities,

Central Surrey and South Surrey/White Rock were also reported. However,

nventory increases were noted in Vancouver - West, Vancouver - East,

angley/Cloverdale and Surrey Central/North Delta. Local investors were

ctive at a number o signature projects and Asian immigrants and investment

emand continued raising more public attention.

NEW HOME MARKET:

Overall the First Quarter o 2011 perormance was strong across all product

ypes as indicated in the ollowing table:

n the First Quarter o 2011 43 percent o sales occurred at high rise projects

which is a 13 percent decrease compared to the Fourth Quarter o 2010. Low

ise sales represented 29 percent o sales up 7 percent rom the previous

uarter while townhome sales increased by 6 percent to 28 percent. Active

rojects increased by approximately 8 percent. For the frst quarter in over a

ear inventory decreased.

RESALE MARKET:

n the First Quarter o 2011, an estimated 1,567 resale multi-amily homes were

old. MLS sales are down 40 percent over the same period last year but up 26

ercent rom the Fourth Quarter o 2010. More specifcally high rise sales

were down 37 percent, low rise sales were down 43 percent and townhomes

own 44 percent. Active listings or all product types are also down compared

o same period last year with low rise product listings decreasing by 17.5

percent and high rise and townhome listings each down 9 percent. Overa

high rise sales represented 50 percent o all MLS sales as indicated in the

ollowing table:

THE QUARTER AHEAD:

The Second Quarter has already seen two signifcant product launches in

Metrotown that achieved stunning absorptions. A number o new projects

will be released shortly in Vancouver - Downtown, Vancouver - East,

Burnaby/New Westminster/Coquitlam and Langley. As a result, the numb

o projects being actively marketed in the First Quarter o 2011 has

surpassed last years high o 238 and is expected to remain at new heigh

through the Second and Third Quarters. We continue to oresee intense

high rise competition in Southeast False Creek, the Lonsdale corridor in

North Vancouver and Richmond. Low rise competition will be most preva

in Richmond, Surrey, South Surrey and Langley/Cloverdale. Increased

townhome competition may dominate the market story in Surrey, South

Surrey and Langley/Cloverdale.

In addition to Bosas. Intracorps and Polygons recent success at Metroto

prominent projects expected to launch in the Second Quarter o 2011include: Vancouver - Downtown - Cresseys Maddoxand Concert Properti

Salt; Vancouver West - Bastions Opsal Steel, Vancouver East - OnnisCent

Burnaby/New Westminster Bosa Properties Viceroy; North Shore

Intracorps Versatile; and Tri-Cities Cresseys M2. We are also monitoring

signifcant pre-development and preliminary marketing activity in parts o

Vancouver - West, Vancouver - East, on the North Shore and in Surreys C

Centre.

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA


Note To Reader - At the end o this report we have included a commentary on What to Wa

and invite you to read our thoughts on the uture o the Lower Mainland market. In coming

editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our What to Watch

commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.

OVERALL SUMMARY

VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total First Quarter Sales 1,073 737 717 2,527

Total Inventory 3,700 2,193 1,008 6,901

Total No. Of Projects 86 85 85 256

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total Sales 791 367 489 1,567

Total Active Listings 1,659 1,309 1,176 4,144


6/18

RST QUARTER 2011

Given the limited supply o new product Vancouver - Downtown maintains a green light rating. A numb

o new high rise projects comprised mostly o product positioned to appeal to investors could launch in th

Second Quarter. Consistent absorptions during the past two quarters indicate absorptions o new project

should be reasonably strong. The last o the product pre-sold prior to 2008 will be completed by the end

2011 including a considerable quantity o higher end product.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER DOWNTOWN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Completed product comprises 13 percent o

total inventory.

The initial application or development o the

next phase o False Creek North was

rejected.

Cressey and Concert Properties are both

positioned to launch signifcant new projects

in the Second Quarter at an average price

per square oot o $750+. These will be the

frst signifcant project launches in

Vancouver - Downtown since The Markin

2009 and The Rolston in early 2010.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

High rise product sales decreased 61

percent but active listings also decreased by

nearly the same amount compared to the

First Quarter o 2010.

Last quarter we stated that low levels o

active listings would put upward pressure onprices and this has occurred. The average

price o one bedroom product was nearly

$450,000.

Demand or two bedroom product was

strong at an average price per square oot o

$704 or 2.5 percent higher than a year ago.

Sales in March exceeded $715 per square

oot or one and two bedroom product

averaged $738 per square oot.

NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS

PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 20 69 433 19 $675 - 725

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME

Maps or illustrative purposesonly. Locations are approximate.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q1 2011

MLS RESALE - Q1 2011MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)

ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY

PRODUCT LISTINGSMONTHS

OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 498 7 223 54 $700 40 $425,000 - 725,000

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change

* % o Total is the percentage o product sold under ten years o age relative to the total sold or each product category

MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE

AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF

PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM

High Rise $445,000 $695 $700,000 $704

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a


Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

Q1 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q2 NEW RELEASES

CarderoSt

ThurlowSt

BurrardSt

ButeSt

Bute

St

JervisStBr

oughtonSt

Nicola

St

NicolaSt

Howe

St

Hornby

St

GranvilleSt

SeymourSt

RichardsSt

HomerSt

HamiltonSt

CambieSt

BeattySt

Bidwell

DenmanSt

arwoodSt

WGeorgiaSt

MelvilleSt

DunsmuirSt

WHastingsSt

WPenderSt

BURR

ARDS

T

BRIDG

E

GRAN

VILLEST

BRIDGE

CordovaSt

Expo

Pacif

cBlvd

ComoxSt

PacifcSt

BeachA

ve

NelsonStPendrallSt

DavieSt

CANADA

PLACE

BC PLACE

STADIUM

Q1release

ProjectedQ2


7/18

RST QUARTER 2011


MLS RESALE - Q1 2011


Much o the Vancouver - West market has been dominated by the happenings at The Village On False Creek and th

signifcant absorptions o re-priced product. New launches such as Kits 360 also achieved reasonable sales success

Accordingly, Vancouver - West is considered a green light opportunity or product that is well-positioned to attract

mix o both end users and investors. Developers are cautioned that overly aggressive list pricing may result in mor

moderate absorptions.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER WEST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

The re-branded The Village On False Creek

launched in February 2011 and achieved

impressive sales as a result o average price

reductions o approximately 30 percent.

Demand rom the Mainland Chinese buyer

group or product at UBC remains strong.

The seemingly ever-increasing sale values o

single amily homes throughout Vancouver -

West has increased the achievable sale values

o new townhome product in appealing and

convenient locations.

The sales success o Kits 360 demonstrates

the amount o pent-up demand that exists or

attractively priced new condominium product

in Kitsilano.

Active sales range or high rise product

increased to $700 - 750 per square oot.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

High rise product sales decreased 37

percent over the same quarter last year

while the average price per square oot

increased 3.5 percent to $712 per square

oot.

Sales o low rise woodrame productdecreased 40 percent over the same quarter

last year with the average price per square

oot increasing 4 percent to $671 per square

oot. This is due to the act smal ler units

were sold during the same period last year.

Townhome product has remained stable at

an average price per square oot o $650.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 16 349 937 8 $700 - 750

Low Rise 3 21 30 4 $675 - 725

Townhome 2 6 3 1.5 $700 - 750

MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)



OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 152 7 70 53 $712 47 $375,000 - 725,000

Low Rise 95 7 41 24 $671 45 $450,000 - 625,000

Townhome 80 2 35 39 $641 54 $850,000 - 1,000,00






High Rise $411,000 $655 $764,000 $747

Low Rise $454,000 $643 $612,000 $676


Townhome $764,000 $610 $980,000 $652

C.P.R.

University ofBritish Columbia

VANCOUVER - WEST

70th Ave W Kent A

57thAve W

Ma

inS

t

King Edward Ave

33rdAve W

CambieSt

OakSt

GRANVILLESTREET

ArbutusSt

WB

oulevard

41st Ave W

49thAveW

BlenheimS

t

12thAve W

DunbarSt

CrownSt

SWMarineDr

16thAveW

10th Ave W

WesbrookM

all

4thAveW

BROADWAYW

Cornwall StntGreyRd

MacdonaldSt

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


8/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The Vancouver - East market continues to be one o the Lower Mainlands strongest green lights. The ga

in pricing between Vancouver - East and its western counterpart has narrowed substantially with some

east-side neighbourhoods currently achieving pricing that had previously only been attained in Vancouve

- West. With ew new project launches anticipated in 2011, demand or Vancouver - East product will

continue to push resale pricing upwards.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER EAST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Low levels o standing inventory across all

product types and minimal new pipeline

product equate to a positive development

opportunity or well executed product.

Bastions 3333 Main continues to achieve

impressive sales and pricing success. Otherprojects in the area are also experiencing

solid volumes as Main Streets appeal swells.

It will be interesting to track consumer

response to Polygons highly anticipated

launch o its New Waterproject at Parklanes

River District(East Fraser Lands) community.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

MLS resales are trading at the highest levels in

over 18 months with the average price per

square oot 4.6 percent higher than the same

period last year.

High rise product sales decreased 40 percent

compared to same quarter last year, whilesales or low rise product decreased by 24

percent.

The spread on a price per square oot between

high rise and low rise product is back to the

$80 to $100 per square oot range compared

to the $40 to $50 range observed throughout

2009 and 2010.

Demand or townhome product remains

strong.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 6 26 83 10 $500 - 550

Low Rise 10 76 251 10 $475 - 525

Townhome 6 21 78 11 $450 - 500





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 63 3 55 57 $542 27 $325,000 - 475,000

Low Rise 83 10 25 21 $453 24 $275,000 - 425,000

Townhome 50 8 18 47 $496 28 $575,000 - 725,000






High Rise $360,000 $560 $517,000 $512

Low Rise $304,000 $454 $388,000 $453


Townhome $614,000 $500 $746,000 $496


Burke St

Kincaid St

WayburneDr

- WEST

B

Eton St

Parker St

Deer LaMoscrop St

GrangeSt

Canada Wy

RupertSt

WillingdonAve

GilmoreAve

McGill St

Dundas St

HASTINGS STREET E

Renrew

St

1st Ave

Venables St

BROADWAY E

NanaimoSt

41st Ave E

ClarkDr

33rd Ave E

KINGSWAY

12th Ave E

GreatNorther

nWy

Denman

St

DavieSt

PacifcS

t

King Edward Ave

33rdAveW

STREET 41st Ave W

12th Ave W

Grandview Hwy

morialBridge

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


9/18

RST QUARTER 2011

Following an impressive 2010 this area continues to achieve strong sales absorptions across all product

types thus its green light rating. Strong demand or townhomes and low rise product is likely to remain

the value o single amily homes in the area continues to increase. While pre-sales or concrete

condominium product at Richmonds major master planned projects are steady demand or larger

product with higher price points has sotened.

MARKET SUMMARY

RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

The dramatic increase in single amily home

values in Richmond has propelled townhome

sales in the area.

The low rise market continues to experience

phenomenal sales at well positioned and

well executed projects such as PolygonsCambridge Parkand Mayair Place

communities.

The initial phase o Townlines

redevelopment o the Fantasy Gardens

project is expected to launch in the Second

Quarter.

The signifcant amount o pipeline product

proposed or Richmond should also serve as

a caution to use extra care when

determining the product orm and mix ornew planned developments.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Limited availability o new product has

pushed resale prices upward.

High rise sales are down 43 percent rom

the same period last year but the average

price per square oot increased by 6 percent

to $518.

High rise one bedroom resale prices have

increased by 11 percent in Richmond.

Low rise sales volume was down 41 percent

rom the same period last year, yet the

average price increased by 5.7 percent.

Townhome sales are down 45 percent over

the same quarter last year but the average

price has increased by 7 percent.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 8 108 497 14 $525 - 575

Low Rise 6 124 198 5 $425 - 475

Townhome 14 102 97 3 $375 - 425

C.N.R.

99

RICHMOND

R

Westminster Hwy

No.

6Rd

N

o.

7Rd

FRASER

-

DELTA

THRUW

AY

VulcanWy

RICHMONDANNACIS

No.

5Rd

Cambie Rd

Alderbridge Wy

Granville Ave

River Rd

Blundell Rd

Francis Rd

WilliamsRd

Steveston Hwy

GardenCityRd

No.

4Rd

ShellRd

RailwayAve

GilbertRd

No.

3Rd

No.

2Rd

No.

1Rd

MonctonSt

RussBakerW

y

ISLAND





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 226 7 103 66 $518 45 $350,000 - 450,000

Low Rise 117 7 51 23 $444 50 $325,000 - 425,000

Townhome 140 5 81 41 $403 40 $475,000 - 575,000






High Rise $335,000 $531 $456,000 $511

Low Rise $285,000 $474 $428,000 $440


Townhome $480,000 $390 $572,000 $406


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


10/18

RST QUARTER 2011

A green light rating is warranted due to the phenomenal absorption o Bosas Properties Sovereign proje

and the demand or Intracorps Metroplace and Polygons Chancellor. However, the remainder o the

market area is realizing more moderate absorptions. There are encouraging signs o renewed interest in

value-oriented product in New Westminster.

MARKET SUMMARY

BURNABY/NEW WESTMINSTER

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Sovereign sold out in a day at prices o

approximately $620 per square oot.

Development planning o high density transit

oriented, Town Centre developments is

starting to ramp up.

The release o new development parcels at

SFUs UniverCityis attracting considerable

attention in the development community.

Standing inventory in New Westminister is

being absorbed and new product, such as

Wansons Eight Westand Bosa Properties

Viceroyare launching in appealing locations.

To retain its green light rating in the Second

Quarter a positive consumer response to

anticipated new projects other than those in

Metrotown will be required.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Active listings or high rise product are down

40 percent over the same quarter in 2010.

Sales decreased 8 percent rom the same

period last year. Buyers have less choice and

many o the current listings are or largerunits at higher price points.

MLS values or newer high rise product have

remained stable over the last year with

average price per square oot sales values

hovering rom $450 to $460 per square oot.

There has been very little change in low rise

activity over the same period last year.

Demand or townhomes remains in Burnaby

with the average price increasing by $40,000

over one year ago.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 14 333 337 3 $550 - 600

Low Rise 14 157 295 5.5 $400 - 450

Townhome 5 53 125 7 $400 - 450

FRAS

ERRIV

ER

Burke St

Kincaid St

WayburneDr

1

COQUBURNABY

NEW

WESTMINSTER

Cla

rkeRd

St. Johns St

Como Lake Ave

LintonSt

GatensburyRd

Au

o

116th Ave

UnitedBlvd

HartleyAve

Parker St Curtis St

GaglardiW

yGeraldAve

SperlingSt

NorthRd

CanadaWy

6thSt

10th

Ave

8thAv

e

6thAv

e

Queens

Ave

KINGSWAY

Deer Lake PkwyMoscrop St

Gille

y A

ve

RoyalOakAve

Imperial St

Rumble St

Oakland St

Edmonds

St

WalkerAve

NelsonAve

MarineDr

Marine Wy

TyneSt

BoundaryRd

GrangeSt

Canada Wy

Sprott StWinston St

RupertSt

WillingdonAve

HoldomS

t

GilmoreAve

KentAve

andview Hwy

BlueMountainSt

TRANSCANADAHIGHWAY

LOUGHEEDHIGHWAY

Simon FraserUniversity

Patullo

Bridgetew

ardsonWy

Colu

mbia

St





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 341 6 176 61 $460 44 $350,000 - 475,000

Low Rise 177 9 60 38 $424 42 $275,000 - 375,000

Townhome 127 6 63 50 $388 26 $425,000 - 575,000






High Rise $323,000 $483 $429,000 $454

Low Rise $279,000 $450 $367,000 $410


Townhome $400,000 $416 $533,000 $370


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


11/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The North Shore begins 2011 with a yellow light rating due to the volume o product on the market, the

modest absorptions o late and the amount o new product slated or the Marine Drive and Lonsdale

corridors. The current status o the Evelyn project is also hindering the rating o this area. With little evident

demand rom the Mainland Chinese buyer group to date, projects in North Vancouver depend on the local en

user market.

MARKET SUMMARY

NORTH SHORE: North Vancouver & West Vancouver

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Steady trac and interest have translated to

moderate to strong absorptions at

appropriately positioned projects on the

North Shore such as Qualex-Landmarks

District Crossing.

Little buyer urgency or product that is ayear or more rom completion.

Townhome supply continues to be extremely

limited and little new product is projected or

2011.

Nearly 50 percent o the released unsold

concrete inventory is completed inventory.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

The majority o the resales in this market are

older product. End-users in the market seem

to avor the size and aordability oered

versus newer smaller product which also

sells at a signifcant premium.

For the relative size o this market, sales ohigh rise product are limited and are down

45 percent over the same period as last

year.

High rise values on a price per square are at

the lowest levels in 18 months averaging $607

per square oot.

Sales o low rise product have remained stable

throughout the year and have appreciated

minimally on a per square oot basis.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 8 31 407 39 $575 - 625

Low Rise 8 101 193 6 $500 - 550

Townhome 3 3 3 3 n/a

Burrard Inlet

1

NORTH

VANCOUVER

MtS

eymou

rRd

D e e p

C o ve

Rd

Mt Seymour Pkwy

Berkley

Rd

eDr

WAY

15th St

Capil

ano

Rd

EdgemontBlvd

Welch St

Larson

Rd

Delb

rook

29th St E

GrandBlvd

E

BrooksbankAve

MountainHw

yEsplanadeE MainSt R

i v e rs i d e DrW

Rive

rsid

eDrE

EsplanadeW

Lonsd

aleAve

ChesterfeldAve

StGeorgesAve

13th St W

Braema

rRd

Mounta

inHwy

Lynn

Valley

Rd

Li

llooet

3rdStW

3rdStE

Hya

nnisDr

Harbourside Dr

Harbourside Pl

Fe

ll

Ave

Keith Rd E

Dollarton HwyOldDollartonRd

IronWorkersMemorialBr

Ave

Rd





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 100 12 25 27 $607 80 $375,000 - 525,000

Low Rise 57 7 24 28 $499 54 $350,000 - 450,000

Townhome 45 11 12 19 $430 16 $750,000 - 900,000






High Rise $387,000 $583 $665,000 $636

Low Rise $343,000 $479 $471,000 $519


Townhome $467,000 $447 $900,000 $431


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


12/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The Tri-Cities area begins 2011 with an overall yellow light rating although increased absorptions in

certain neighbourhoods were achieved in the First Quarter. Well executed townhome and low rise produ

that are centrally located and well positioned have been able to achieve consistent absorptions. Buyer

urgency or pre-sale product in some areas remains tepid at best, and will likely remain so until unding

and construction o the Evergreen Line is confrmed.

MARKET SUMMARY

TRI-CITIES: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

New development ocus will shit to the

Burquitlam area later this year with the

anticipated launch o several higher density

wood rame and concrete condominium

projects.

The completion o the Coast Meridianoverpass in Port Coquitlam has opened up

several large parcels o land or development

that comprise residential, commercial and

retail components.

Aragons The Station on Port Moodys St.

John Streetwill launch in the Second Quarter

o 2011 this will be the frst new low rise

product in Port Moody in close to three

years.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

There is renewed activity or high rise and

townhomes but low rise product has lagged

comparatively.

Low rise sales are down 69 percent and

high rise sales are down 33 percent over the

same period last year.

Townhome resale volume is up 2 percent over

the same period last year.

Year over year the average price and the

average price per square oot has remained

stable in the Tri-Cities market.

There is renewed confdence in the TriCities

area and sales have been steadily improving,


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 9 123 508 12 $410 - 460

Low Rise 7 24 64 8 $340 - 390

Townhome 6 118 109 3 $285 - 335

C.P.R.

7

PORT MOODY

PORT

COQ

COQUITLAM

Victor

Prairie Av

CoastMeridianRd

KingswayAve

BroadwaySt

Sh

au

gh

nessySt

PanoramaD

r

JohnsonSt

Landsdowne

Dr

PinetreeWy

i

ve

rRd

IocoRd

April

Rd

Heritag

e

Mount

ain

Blvd

Cla

rkeRd

St. Johns St

Como Lake Ave

Ma

rin

erWy

LintonSt

GatensburyRd

Austin Ave

Blu

eMountainSt

sySt





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 168 12 42 74 $405 65 $260,000 - 440,000

Low Rise 215 17 38 27 $355 31 $260,000 - 340,000

Townhome 116 5 73 50 $315 23 $360,000 - 560,000






High Rise $282,000 $435 $413,000 $396

Low Rise $238,000 $368 $340,000 $348


Townhome $365,000 $306 $463,000 $320


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectsdQ2


13/18

RST QUARTER 2011

This quarter this area has been given a yellow light rating. Parts o this sub-area exhibited some signs o

strengthening in the First Quarter. A number o recent multi-amily land transactions indicate some leve

o confdence in this area particularly or new townhome product. However, the most signifcant

challenge or developers considering this area is the low achievable sale values particularly or wood

rame condominium product.

MARKET SUMMARY

RIDGE MEADOWS: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Quadra Homes experienced a strong opening

at their Kensington Parkwood rame

condominium development.

Portrait Homes Brighton project which

opened in the Third Quarter o 2010 has

experienced strong and steady absorptions,with sales o these townhomes keeping pace

with construction at this multi-phased project.

Several new home developments have

reported an increase in trac rom other

Metro Vancouver communities to the west,

including North Vancouver. The areas close

proximity to various outdoor recreational

activities combined with more aordable

pricing is luring potential buyers.

* The tolling o the Port Mann Bridge will likelyincrease the appeal o commuting rom Ridge

Meadows.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Stagnant resale activity or all attached

product types. Single amily detached product

is still the preerred housing choice in the

area due to the relatively aordable prices.

Sales activity o low rise product has

decreased by 54 percent over the sameperiod last year with the average price per

square oot down 5 percent.

Prices or low rise woodrame have remained

stable over the last year with little change in

the average price per square oot and the

average price.

Over the same period last year townhome

resales have strengthened by 44 percent with

88 sales in the First Quarter o 2011.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 7 44 63 4.5 $250 - 300

Townhome 5 32 94 9 $190 - 240

C.N.R.

7

PITT MEADOWS

AIRPORT

PITT

MEADOWSHammond Rd

FraserWy

128th Ave

NeavesRd

LaitySt

216thSt

River

Rd

203rd

St

207thSt

EarsBridge

04thAve

08th Ave

PerimeterRd

Woolrid

geRd

gswayAve

BroadwaySt

LOUGHEEDHIGHWAY

Dewdney Trunk Rd

HarrisRd

AS

BARNSTON

ISLAND





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 130 24 16 57 $247 74 $210,000 - 270,000

Townhome 88 9.5 28 44 $214 63 $290,000 - 410,000






High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise $159,000 $228 $280,000 $252


Townhome $307,000 $229 $363,000 $215


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


14/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The Surrey Central/North Delta market areas continued to achieve moderate absorptions o mostly complet

product. However, the amount o completed and unsold product supports a continued yellow light rating.

The City o Surreys eorts regarding Surrey City Centre continue to attract new buyers to the area, though

most o these buyers are value-oriented entry level and investors purchasers. Activity has increased in the

townhome sector with stronger demand evident or completed or nearly completed product.

MARKET SUMMARY

SURREY CENTRAL/NORTH DELTA

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

The moderate sales momentum that low rise

product achieved in the Fourth Quarter o

2010 continued in the First Quarter o 2011,

particularly or product well under

construction.

Steady sales and absorptions at ConcordPacifcs Park Place are encouraging or the

central Surrey market, signaling increased

confdence rom both investors and end

users.

The anticipated re-launch o the Ultra tower

under the new joint venture partnership

between Metro-Can and Weststone will be

monitored closely.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

The high rise market has lagged substantially

compared to other multi-amily resales. A

total o eight sales were recorded in the

quarter or newer product.

Over the same period last year, woodramelow rise product sales decreased 35 percent,

yet the average price has increased by 3.5

percent.

Townhome product continues to be the

avored product and the average price per

square oot has increased 3.7 percent over

the same period last year. Although

townhome sales are down 58 percent over

the same period last year.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 3 20 438 65 $350 - 400

Low Rise 13 106 539 15 $275 - 325

Townhome 16 100 152 4.5 $210 - 260

.N.R.

B.N.R.

SOUTHERN

RAILW

AY

91

91A

99A

SURREY

64th Ave

168thSt

176thSt

80th AvePACIFICHIGH

WAY

88th Ave

160t h

St

92

96th Ave

104th Ave

156thSt

108th Ave

erRd

58th Ave 48thSt

148thSt

64th Ave 68th Ave

72nd Ave

76th Ave76th Ave

ScottRd

120thSt

KING

GEOR G

E

HIGHW

AY

80th Ave

Kitson Pkwy

72nd Ave 140thSt

144thSt

152ndSt

84th Ave

128thSt

112thSt

84th Ave

Nordel

Wy

hSt

ANNACIS

HIGHWAY

88th Ave

92nd Ave

96th Ave

132ndSt

100th AveFRASER HIGHWAY

ScottR

d

100th Ave

104th Ave

108th AveGr

erwentWy

AlexFrase

rBridge

Queensboro ughBridgeAv

e

Newton Rd

ANNACIS

ISLAND





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 64 24 9 28 $320 27 $200,000 - 280,000

Low Rise 225 15 46 38 $284 61 $160,000 - 260,000

Townhome 206 9 67 49 $238 53 $320,000 - 400,000






High Rise $190,000 $319 $267,000 $320

Low Rise $184,000 $309 $261,000 $271


Townhome $305,000 $262 $360,000 $232


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


15/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The South Surrey/White Rock market area retains its yellow light rating in the First Quarter o 2011 due to the

substantial amount o current and proposed supply o new multi-amily product. Nevertheless, the abundance

new retail and service amenities has helped most actively selling projects maintain moderate and steady

absorptions. The mix o buyers has become increasingly diverse with some projects reporting continued growt

in the number o prospective Mainland Chinese buyers particularly or townhome product.

MARKET SUMMARY

SOUTH SURREY/WHITE ROCK

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Ground-oriented townhome product

targeting price-conscious buyers continues

to generate the majority o new housing

product demand.

The signifcant amount o released and

unreleased standing inventory at some woodrame condominium projects continues to be

a drag on the prospects or new low rise

condominium launches in this market area.

Next to Richmond and Vancouver, South

Surrey has emerged as one o the strongest

and most popular destination communities

or the local and Mainland Chinese buyer due

to the quality o its schools and convenient

access to new retail amenities.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

High rise sales have improved slightly.

New low rise product sales continue to lag

based as supply increases due to the number

o recently completed projects. Newer low

rise product does represent a small portion o

the resale market at 18 percent.

Townhomes are the strongest segment o the

market with the average price per square oot

increasing 6 percent over the same period

last year. The average price is now over

$500,000.

The higher average price o towhomes is due

to supply o larger unit types (our bedrooms)

which prove to be a more aordable option

than single amily detached homes.

Mud Bay

B.N.R.

99

WHITE ROCK

176thSt

172ndSt

Campb

16th Av

168thSt

8th Ave

Buena Vista Ave

152ndSt

24th A

20th A

28th A

32nd A

20th Ave

40th Ave

160thSt

Marine Dr

North Blu Rd

128thSt

20th Ave124thSt

Bayview

St

24th Ave

28th Ave

140thSt

Cresc

entRd 32nd Ave

40thAve





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 47 16 9 60 $478 97 n/a

Low Rise 74 20 11 18 $335 69 $330,000 - 430,000

Townhome 62 5 38 57 $276 39 $360,000 - 560,000






High Rise n/a n/a $780,000 $548

Low Rise $246,000 $359 $363,000 $332


Townhome $335,000 $298 $450,000 $281


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME



PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 2 14 60 13 $550 - 600

Low Rise 8 47 225 14 $285 - 335

Townhome 14 163 151 3 $250 - 300

Q1release

ProjectedQ2


16/18

RST QUARTER 2011

The Cloverdale/Langley area is dominated by the value-conscious end-user buyer with very little evidenc

o investor demand particularly or the substantial amount o wood rame condominium product

available. As such, this market area has retained its yellow light rating in the First Quarter o 2011.

Townhome projects with completed or nearly completed product have achieved the strongest absorptions

MARKET SUMMARY

CLOVERDALE/LANGLEY

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Polygons Red Maple Parktownhome

community in Yorkson South experienced

modest success during its late First Quarter

launch. This is the frst o several new

projects scheduled to launch in this area in

2011.

Parklane will launch Winchestertownhomes

in the Murrayville area o Langley the frst

signifcant new townhome product launch in

this area in several years.

Pre-sale product oerings o any type

continue to struggle in this area, with no

investor base and little buyer urgency.

Developers attempting to pre-sell new

multi-amily projects are cautioned to ensure

that product is appropriately positioned

relative to comparable and completed or

nearly completed product.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Active listings or low rise woodrame product

have decreased by 37 percent over the same

period last year last year but sales continue to

decrease. Low rise sales are down 53

percent over the same period last year.

There has been little change in values or lowrise product with the average price and

average price per square oot remaining

constant over the same period last year.

Next to the single amily detached homes,

townhome activity is the strongest segment

o the multi-amily market but sales are down

41 percent over the same period last year

while active listings have remained constant.


PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

MONTHS

OF SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 9 37 335 27 $280 - 330

Townhome 14 119 195 1.5 $225 - 275

C.N.R.

1

17

10

Glo

verRd

88th Ave

TelegraphTr

216thSt

TophamR

200thSt

72nd Ave72nd Ave

208t

hSt

216thSt

Glover

Rd

LoganAve

HWY 10

BYPASS

St

56th Ave

60th Ave

184thSt

192n

dSt

II

I

HarvieRd

92nd Ave

64th Ave

19

MC





OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 136 15 28 41 $287 66 $210,000 - 290,000

Townhome 262 11 71 53 $227 51 $280,000 - 380,000





High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise $205,000 $284 $280,000 $289


Townhome $310,000 $247 $352,000 $225


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q1release

ProjectedQ2


17/18

RST QUARTER 2011

We remain bullish on the long term uture o theVancouver market and recent increases in the active

ales range (where 75 percent o sales occurred) in key

markets supports this view.

AST QUARTER

ur projections or last quarter were exceeded by 20 percent. This is partly

ue to the impressive sales results posted at The Village On False Creek and

overeign.

While we predicted new successul launches in the First Quarter we did not

oresee the level o pent up demand or Metrotown that resulted in Bosas

ellout that lead to signifcant sales results or Intracrop and Polygon. Given

more product is orthcoming this area warrants close observation.

or the fth consecutive quarter Mainland Chinese demand continued as

redicted creating debate in the market. And, pressure to maintain

ordability has ueled a back lash against oreign ownership o late.

ur quarterly cycle o developer polling suggests that the sentiment moving

orward in 2011 is optimistic. The orthcoming provincial election and the

ST reerendum will be monitored closely and the outcomes are certain to

mpact developer mindset in the all.

OOKING AHEAD

ooking ahead to the Second and Third Quarters o 2011 and beyond we

xpect:

I early indicators hold true this year could surpass most predictions. We

predict Second Quarter sales to surpass last years total or the same

period by fve to ten percent. We do, however, expect a late spring and

summer sales lull much like last year.

It is unlikely that any signifcant progress will be made on any

controversial project applications in the Lower Mainland in the lead up to

municipal elections.

Too many new projects entering the market at once could create excess

inventory and hinder developers ability to meet pre-sales requirements.

Asian demand where language barriers are almost non-existent and

quality schools are available will continue as will the debate to the market

eects o this demand.

* The frst o a series o new releases were launched in Abbotsord at

the end o the First Quarter achieving relative success. We expect m

activity in this market through 2011 and 2012.

* A number o Vancouver developers are looking at new opportunities

Victoria and Calgary where there is less competition or sites and

where the markets are now starting to show signs o recovery. We

expect a number o new projects to launch in these cities in the all

2011 and First and Second Quarters o 2012.

Finally, there are a number of the questions we at Colliers are asking

ourselves as we enter the Second and Third Quarters of 2011:

WHAT IMPACT WILL THE RECENT FEDERAL ELECTION, THE

FORTHCOMING PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS AND

THE HST REFERENDUM HAVE ON CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY

AND DEVELOPER MINDSET?

A conservative majority likely eases some angst amongst developers. O

down and three to go. What will the outcomes be?

WILL THE IMPRESSIVE SALES INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR

CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND QUARTER?

Will Metrotown-esque success be achieved at new releases in Vancouv

- Downtown, Brentwood and New Wesminster?

WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE LAUNCHES AT SOUTHWEST

MARINE AND CAMBIE?

When will PCI come to market with residential product at Marine

Gateway? Who will ollow?

WHATS HAPPENING IN WEST VANCOUVER?

Will new ownership be in place at Evelyn this quarter? What will they d

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

As always, we value your input. I you have views youd like to share a

or questions that you would like to see answered in uture editions pleacontact us directly at [email protected].

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA


RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY

WHAT TO WATCH


18/18

Documents

Colliers Residential - Market Share - Q1- 2011