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Content
• Driving forces behind (urban) mobility• Four possible reasons for lower car use• Challenges: the sustainable city• (Possible) Solutions
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Possible reasons for lower car use
1. Saturation level achieved• Everyone has a car
2. Internet society• Less need for physical trips
3. More international trips• Mobility occurs at another place
4. Behavioral change?• Do people favour other modes
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NL: still growth potential, no signals for saturation
Travel time constant during the last 15 years
Car ownership in NL is low: 500 cars per 1.000 inhabitants)
Italy: 600 cars per 1.000 inh.
USA: 800 cars per 1.000 inh.
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Internet society leads to less car use?
• Is Internet the transport mode of the future?• Or is it the self driving car?
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No scientific evidence of lower car use as a result of the internet revolution
• Influence of the internet society on car use is the sum of substitution and generation
• Some car trips disappear (teleworking) and • at the time new trips are made.
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More international mobility: strong growth (+45%)
International travel: distance traveled by Dutch people
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60
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
kmD
is
Holiday
Other
Total
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But, limited influence on local car mobility, because:
• The share of international trips is 2% of al trips• Most international trips are short distance trips,
growth is mainly holidays trips to destinations further away
• Time spend on international trips is constant
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Less car use under younger age groups
Car mobility per person
Mode Trips between 1995-2009
Car -27%
Train +31%
Bus/tram/metro -46%
Bicycle -16%
Total -21%
Age group: 18-29 years
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Younger people:
• Favor city life• Follow higher education (in the city)• Increasingly live in 1 or 2 persons households• Use more and more sharing systems
(sharification)
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Possible reasons for lower car use
1. Saturation level achieved NO
2. Internet society Could be
3. More international trips NO
4. Behavioral change? Yes
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So …
• Major reason for lower car use, is new behavior of younger age groups
• Aspects that play a role:• Younger people are more oriented on the city• Less orientation on ownership (car sharing)• Internet society leads (for these age group) to new
spatial patterns
• But also … financial crises, it could also be a temporal dip
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Challenges for cities
• Growth of the number of (young) inhabitants• On the long term: major environmental
challenges: health and climate problems• And accessibility, traffic safety as well
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The sustainable city: HealthCars kill people
Lower life expectancy in months due to small particles (source: EU)
NL
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The sustainable city: Climate Transport becomes major source CO2 emissions
Expected CO2 emissions, EU-27
Transport related CO2 emissions
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Solutions
• Less urban car use is needed• Clean technologies (e.g. electric vehicles) will
help, but will not be enough• Higher densities• Sustaining the new transport behavior
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Invest in sustaining the new transport behavior of the younger age groups, for instance
• Life event: the step from studying towards working life
• PartYcipation: inhabitants create there own environment
• Support Sharification: peer-to-peer systems, car sharing, bike sharing, etc.
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Conclusions
• (Major) Cities will continue to grow• Urban mobility will continue to grow
• Strong growth trips to and from the cities• Alternatives for the car are available
• Challenge: sustainable growth• Higher densities• Livable cities need policies to make the new transport
behavior structural